Company Update AKR Corporindo Bloomberg: AKRA.IJ Reuters: AKRA.JK Samuel Equity Research 8 March 2017 Target Price Rp 7,000 Last Price Rp 6,150 Potential Upside 13.8% JCI Index 5,405 Share issued (mn) 3,940 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 24,229 52-Weeks High/Low 7100/5400 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 3.94 Free Float 41.4% Nominal Value Rp 100 Book value/share 16 Rp 1,731 Relative to JCI Chart 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% BUY (Maintain) JCI Index Company Background Shareholder Structure AKRA IJ Equity -40% Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17 AKR Corpindo is Indonesia's largest private petroleum distributor w ith a nationw idw netw ork for the transport and storage of diesel fuel. The company also distributes to a branded netw ork of over 100 gasoline stations and operates an industrial estate in East Java. Arthakencana Rayatama 58.6% Public 41.4% Arandi Ariantara +62 21 2854 8148 arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id Riding coal production uptrend Potensi peningkatan produksi batubara menjadi katalis AKRA di tahun 2017, mengingat sekitar 30% konsumen perseroan adalah perusahaan batubara. Kami menargetkan pertumbuhan volume distribusi sebesar 8% serta 45 ha lahan industri JIIPE terjual di 2017. Mempertahankan BUY, dengan TP Rp 7.000/lembar saham, 17E PE: 23.9x, dan PBV: 3.6x). Positifnya pasar batubara di 2017 menjadi katalis positif AKRA Kenaikan harga batubara di akhir tahun 2016 seiring dengan dipangkasnya pasokan batubara China serta janji politik Presiden Trump, yang diantaranya termasuk menghidupkan kembali industri batubara, menjadi katalis positif AKRA di 2017. Sektor batubara merupakan konsumen AKRA terbesar (30% dari total distribusi). Produksi batubara Indonesia di 2017 diperkirakan tumbuh 8% yoy menjadi 470 juta ton seiring penguatan harga batubara. dengan target pertumbuhan volume distribusi sebesar 8%... Kami mengestimasikan volume penjualan bensin di 2017 tumbuh sebesar 8% yoy menjadi 2,2 juta kiloliter sejalan dengan pertumbuhan produksi sektor tambang. Dari segmen retail, AKRA menargetkan joint venture (JV) dengan British Petroleum (BP) terwujud guna mendukung ekspansi sektor retail. Kami estimasi pendapatan 2017 tumbuh 35% yoy menjadi Rp 20,8 triliun. serta target penjualan JIIPE sebesar 45 ha. Manajemen menargetkan lahan kawasan Java Integrated Industrial Port Estate (JIIPE) terjual sebanyak 45 ha di 2017 sehingga menambah lahan disewakan menjadi 195 ha. JIIPE kami valuasikan memiliki bernilai Rp 363/saham. Laba bersih 2017 diproyeksikan tumbuh 14% yoy. Estimasi harga jual yang lebih tinggi (Rp 6.780/liter vs 2016: Rp 4.972/liter) disertai peningkatan volume permintaan dari pertambangan kami perkirakan akan memberikan hasil laba bersih 2017 yang tumbuh 14% menjadi Rp 1,1 miliar. Laba bersih FY16 AKRA tercatat dibawah estimasi dan turun 2% yoy sejalan dengan 6% yoy penurunan volume distribusi dan harga jual sebesar 33% yoy, Mempertahankan BUY dengan TP Rp 7.000. Kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengan target price (TP) di Rp 7.000, merefleksikan P/E 17 25x dan potensi upside 14%. Resiko dari rekomendasi kami adalah lebih buruknya volume distribusi. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp6,175 per share) Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 19,765 15,213 20,841 27,469 EBIT 1,175 1,621 1,607 1,453 EBITDA 1,703 1,521 2,317 1,853 Net Profit 1,034 1,011 1,153 1,167 EPS 262 257 293 296 BV per Share 1,546 1,731 1,922 2,116 DPS 127.1 104.9 102.6 117.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.2 18.3 11.9 13.9 P/E Ratio (x) 23.6 24.2 21.2 20.9 P/BV Ratio (x) 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.9 Net gearing (x) 42.1 39.0 30.2 7.8 Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia
Figure 1. Pendapatan dan volume distribusi bensin, 2014 18E ('000 kl) 2,500 2,461 Rp bn 30,000 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,209 19,765 2,237 20,841 27,469 25,000 20,000 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 2,070 15,213 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 15,000 10,000 5,000 Petroleum sales volume Revenues Source : Perseroan, SSI Research Figure 2. Penjualan bensin vs produksi batubara nasional, 2015 2018E (mn ton) 475 470 470 2,461 470 465 460 461 455 450 2,237 2,209 445 440 435 2,070 434 430 2015 2016 2017E 2018E ('000 kl) 2,500 2,450 2,400 2,350 2,300 2,250 2,200 2,150 2,100 2,050 2,000 Indonesia coal production (LHS) Petroleum sales volume Source : Company, SSI Research Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 2 of 6
Figure 3. Konsumen bensin, 9M16 Power 15% General market 25% Non-coal mining 18% Retail distribution 12% Coal mining 30% Source : Company, SSI Research Figure 4. Rasio profitabilitas, 2015A 2018E (%) 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0-14.2 12.3 12.5 13.0 12.4 11.2 11.5 9.1 6.6 5.2 5.5 4.3 15A 16A 17E 18E Gross margin Net margin ROE Source : Company, SSI Research Figure 5. Harga minyak vs harga jual rata-rata, 2015A 2018E (US$/b) 65.0 60.0 55.0 50.0 45.0 40.0 8,454 60.0 6,611 6,780 55.0 53.7 4,972 45.0 15A 16A 17E 18E Oil prices (LHS) ASP (RHS) (Rp/liter) 9,500 8,500 7,500 6,500 5,500 4,500 3,500 2,500 1,500 Source : Bloomberg, SSI Research Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 3 of 6
Figure 6. Ringkasan kinerja 2016 Source : Bloomberg, SSI Research Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 4 of 6
Key Financials Profit and Loss Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (Rp Bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp Bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 19,765 15,213 20,841 27,469 Net Income 1,034 1,011 1,153 1,167 COGS 17,549 13,338 18,452 24,970 Depreciation & Ammort. 353 346 696 246 Gross profit 2,216 1,875 2,390 2,499 Working capital (817) (347) (615) 994 Gross Profit margin 11.2% 12.3% 11.5% 9.1% Adjustment 11 (0) - - Operating expenses 867 700 769 892 Operating Cash Flow 581 1,009 1,234 2,407 Operating profit 1,349 1,175 1,621 1,607 Net - Capital expenditure (437) (471) (869) (423) Oprting profit margin 6.8% 7.7% 7.8% 5.9% Others 255 (397) 357 297 EBITDA 1,713 1,521 2,317 1,853 Investing Cash Flow (181) (868) (513) (126) EBITDA margin 8.7% 10.0% 11.1% 6.7% Net - Borrowings (270) 174 181 (981) Other Inc. (Exp.) (32) (19) (76) (61) Dividends (306) (483) (412) (416) Pre-tax profit 1,317 1,156 1,545 1,547 Other Financing 588 243 66 (226) Income tax - net (258) (109) (363) (363) Financing Cash Flow 12 (66) (164) (1,623) Minority interest (25) (36) (29) (16) Net - Cash flow 411 75 557 658 Net profit 1,034 1,011 1,153 1,167 Cash at beginning 880 1,291 1,367 1,924 Net profit margin 5.2% 6.6% 5.5% 4.3% Cash at ending 1,291 1,367 1,924 2,581 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp Bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E Cash & ST Invest. 1,291 1,367 1,924 2,581 ROE 14% 13% 13% 12% Receivables 3,049 2,569 3,377 2,427 ROA 7% 6% 7% 6% Inventories 977 862 1,196 1,535 EBITDA Margin (%) 8.7% 10.0% 11.1% 6.7% Others 1,968 2,593 2,800 3,640 EBIT Margin (%) 6.8% 7.7% 7.8% 5.9% Current Assets 7,286 7,391 9,296 10,184 Net Margin (%) 5.2% 6.6% 5.5% 4.3% Net fixed assets 5,865 6,057 5,973 5,915 Interest Coverage (x) 12 18 11 12 Other assets 2,052 2,382 2,283 2,222 Debt to Equity (%) 53% 50% 47% 34% Total Assets 15,203 15,831 17,552 18,320 Net Gearing (%) 35% 33% 26% 7% Payables 3,434 3,184 3,942 5,083 Other current liab. 492 424 400 483 Major Assumptions Interest bearing debt 3,856 4,030 4,211 3,230 Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E Other long term liab. 135 117 122 127 Petrol Dist. Vol. ('000 kl) 2,209 2,070 2,237 2,461 Total Liabilities 7,917 7,756 8,676 8,923 JIIPE Land Sales (ha) 0 30 45 100 Non-controlling Intst. 1,196 1,253 1,304 1,062 Avg USD/IDR Exch. Rate 13,500 13,650 13,200 13,200 Total Equity 7,286 8,074 8,877 9,398 Petroleum ASP (Rp/l) 6,611 4,972 6,780 8,454 Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 5 of 6
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