Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) Bloomberg: INDF.IJ Reuters: INDF.JK

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1 Company Update Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) Bloomberg: INDF.IJ Reuters: INDF.JK Samuel Equity Research Performance expected to improve this year Tidak jauh berbeda dengan kinerja 9M15, INDF pada FY15 membukukan total pendapatan dan EBIT yang relatif flat dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya, sementara laba bersihnya menurun siknifikan akibat forex loss. Laba tersebut mencerminkan 10% di atas ekspektasi kami seiring forex loss yang lebih baik dari perkiraan atau 4% di bawah ekspektasi konsensus. Di tahun ini, kinerja INDF diperkirakan akan lebih baik karena penguatan harga CPO, perbaikan kondisi makro termasuk kenaikan nilai tukar rupiah, dan potensi penurunan beban bunga dari hasil divestasi Minzhong. Buy dengan target price dinaikkan menjadi Rp (18,7x PE 2016F). Laba bersih FY15 ditopang oleh Divisi CBP. INDF mencatatkan pertumbuhan pendapatan bersih 0,7% yoy menjadi Rp 64,1 triliun ditopang oleh kenaikan pendapatan Divisi CBP yang sebesar 6,1%, sementara Divisi Bogasari dan Agribusiness mencatatkan penurunan masing-masing 3,8% dan 7,7%. Dari sisi EBIT, Divisi CBP mampu tumbuh 24,6% sementara divisi lainnya mengalami pelemahan. Laba bersih FY15 tercatat turun 24,7% menjadi Rp 3,0 triliun (4Q15vs4Q14:+47,6%). Laba tersebut mencerminkan 10% di atas ekspektasi kami karena forex loss yang lebih kecil dari perkiraan. Dibandingkan konsensus, laba tersebut berada 4% di bawah ekspektasi. Divisi Bogasari di tengah-tengah kompetisi ketat. Kami melihat kompetisi di pasar terigu semakin ketat, dimana manajemen mencatat akan ada sejumlah pemain baru di pasar. Walaupun harga gandum masih dalam tren menurun, marjin diperkirakan tidak akan banyak meningkat karena kompetisi akan membatasi besar marjin. Kami menilai strategi perusahaan untuk mempertahankan konsumen saat ini dan bertumbuh bersama merupakan hal positif. Harga CPO membaik pada 1Q16. Harga CPO yang melemah sepanjang tahun lalu mendorong pelemahan Divisi Agribusiness dimana pendapatan dan EBIT turun masing-masing 7,7% dan 32,6%. Sejalan dengan ekspektasi kami, pada 1Q16 kami melihat ada perbaikan pada harga CPO yang dapat berimpas positif bagi divisi ini. Divestasi Minzhong masih sesuai rencana. Kami masih percaya bahwa transaksi divestasi Minzhong akan berjalan sesuai rencana, menyusul diterimanya pembayaran uang muka pada akhir tahun lalu. Sesuai rencana manajemen, kami mengasumsikan penggunaan dana hasil divestasi tersebut untuk membayar sebagian hutang valas, sehingga dapat berujung pada penurunan beban bunga dan eksposur ke valas. Kinerja 2016 diperkirakan membaik; Buy. Kami memperkirakan kinerja INDF di tahun ini akan lebih baik dari tahun lalu didorong oleh peningkatan harga CPO, perbaikan kondisi makro termasuk penguatan nilai tukar rupiah, dan transaksi divestasi Minzhong. Berdasarkan pencapaian kinerja 2015, situasi terkini, dan guidance dari manajemen, kami merevisi ke atas forecast kami. Pendapatan bersih dan laba bersih diperkirakan meningkat 8,3% dan 26,4% pada Kami menaikkan target price menjadi Rp (18,7x PE 2016). Buy. 30 March 2016 Target Price Rp 8,000 Last Price Rp 7,000 Potential Upside 14.3% JCI Index 4,790 Share Issued (mn) 8,780 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 61, Weeks High/Low 7,575/4,560 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 9.4 Free Float 50% Nominal Value 100 EPS 2016 Rp 427 Relative to JCI Chart 20% 10% BUY (Maintain) 0% Dec-14-10% Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15-20% -30% -40% INDF JCI Company Background PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk w as established in 1990 under the name of PT Panganjaya Intikusuma. Currently, the company operates in such as processed food, seasoning, beverages, packaging, cooking oil, and w heat grain mills. Shareholder Structure CAB Holdings Limited 50.1% Others 0.0% Public 49.9% Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp7,000 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Revenue 63,594 64,062 69,374 77,130 EBIT 7,320 7,363 8,214 9,176 EBITDA 9,580 9,542 10,662 11,684 Net Profit 3,942 2,968 3,750 4,576 EPS (Rp) BV per Share (Rp) 2,859 3,106 3,387 3,718 DPS (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Dividend Yield (%) Andy Ferdinand, CFA andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id Page 1 of 5 DISCLAIMERS: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

2 Table 1. Quarterly Results Rpbn 4Q14 3Q15 4Q15 QoQ YoY FY14 FY15 YoY Net Sales* 16,712 14,929 16, % -1.3% 63,594 64, % CBP 7,488 7,546 7, % 5.5% 29,921 31, % Bogasari 5,175 4,372 5, % -0.2% 19,926 19, % Agribusiness 4,396 3,274 3, % -14.6% 14,947 13, % Distribution 1,134 1,171 1, % 3.5% 4,865 4, % EBIT** 1,950 1,574 1, % -0.6% 7,320 7, % CBP % 45.9% 3,096 3, % Bogasari % 10.2% 1,457 1, % Agribusiness % -34.0% 2,235 1, % Distribution % -6.1% % Net Income*** 870 (47) 1,284 NA 47.6% 3,942 2, % EBIT Margin 11.7% 10.5% 11.7% 120bps 8bps 11.5% 11.5% -2bps CBP 7.8% 11.6% 10.8% -82bps 298bps 10.3% 12.2% 180bps Bogasari 7.6% 3.4% 8.4% 495bps 79bps 7.3% 7.0% -32bps Agribusiness 16.2% 11.8% 12.5% 71bps -367bps 15.0% 10.9% -404bps Distribution 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 10bps -38bps 4.0% 3.5% -59bps Net Margin 5.2% -0.3% 7.8% 810bps 258bps 6.2% 4.6% -157bps * Net sales: after elimination; Components: before elimination. ** EBIT: after elimination and with unallocated income/expenses; Components: before elimination and without unallocated income/expenses. *** attributed to the equity holders of the parent entity. Figure 1. Segment Contribution 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% FY15 Segment Contribution 7.8% 2.5% 18.8% 21.9% 24.1% 19.5% 49.3% 56.1% Distribusi Agribisnis Bogasari CBP 0.0% External Sales EBIT Page 2 of 5

3 Figure 2. Net Sales Growth Figure 5. Wheat Price 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 Net Sales (Rp bn) Net Sales yoy Growth 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Wheat Price (USD/Bu) Figure 3. Profitability Margin 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% Figure 6. USD/IDR 15,000 14,000 13,000 USD/IDR 5% 0% -5% 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 Series1 Series2 Series3 12,000 11,000 Figure 4. CPO Price CPO Price (MYR/MT) 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Figure 7. Rolling 12M Forward PE Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PE - Forward ST dev +2 ST dev -2 Page 3 of 5

4 Key Financials Profit and Loss Cash Flow (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Revenue 63,594 64,062 69,374 77,130 Net Profit 3,942 2,968 3,750 4,576 EBIT 7,320 7,363 8,214 9,176 Depr. and Amort. 2,260 2,179 2,448 2,509 EBITDA 9,580 9,542 10,662 11,684 Chg in Working Capital (536) 31 3, Net Profit 3,942 2,968 3,750 4,576 Chg in Others 3,603 (964) (180) (765) CFO 9,269 4,214 9,733 7,132 Capex (2,728) (5,786) (3,462) (4,712) Balance Sheet Others (7,434) Yr-end (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E CFI (10,162) (5,666) (3,462) (4,712) Cash 14,158 13,076 13,124 10,629 Chg in Debt (423) 673 (4,940) (3,249) Receivables 3,555 4,256 4,609 5,124 Dividend Payment (1,247) (1,932) (1,454) (1,838) Inventories 8,446 7,627 8,227 9,141 Others 3,073 1, Other CA 14,855 17,858 10,575 11,104 CFF 1,403 (141) (6,223) (4,915) Current Assets 41,014 42,817 36,535 35,998 Chg in Cash 510 (1,593) 48 (2,495) Fixed Assets 21,982 25,096 25,758 27,594 Adjustment (inc. fx effect) (18) Other Non-CA 23,081 23,919 24,450 25,581 Non-current Assets 45,063 49,015 50,208 53,176 Ratio Total Assets 86,077 91,832 86,743 89,174 14A 15A 16E 17E Payables 3,818 3,584 3,866 4,295 EBIT Margin 11.5% 11.5% 11.8% 11.9% Debt 26,933 27,606 22,666 19,417 EBITDA Margin 15.1% 14.9% 15.4% 15.1% Others 15,052 17,520 13,512 14,665 NPM 6.2% 4.6% 5.4% 5.9% Total Liabilities 45,803 48,710 40,044 38,377 ROE 15.7% 10.9% 12.6% 14.0% Total Equity 25,104 27,269 29,737 32,647 ROA 4.6% 3.2% 4.3% 5.1% Minority Interest 15,170 15,852 16,962 18,149 Revenue Grow th 14.3% 0.7% 8.3% 11.2% EBIT Grow th 19.8% 0.6% 11.6% 11.7% Net Profit Grow th 57.4% -24.7% 26.4% 22.0% Interest Coverage (x) Macro Assumption Net Debt to Equity 50.9% 53.3% 32.1% 26.9% 14A 15A 16E 17E RCP (days) GDP Grow th (yoy) 5.0% 4.7% 5.1% 5.4% IRP (days) CPI (yoy) 8.4% 3.4% 4.5% 5.5% PPP (days) USD/IDR (avg) 11,885 13,460 13,650 13,200 CCC (days) Page 4 of 5

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