Sector Update : Metal Mining June 2009

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1 Sector Update : Metal Mining June 29 PT Mega Capital Indonesia Your Trusted Professional Nikel dan Kegunaannya Nikel digunakan dalam berbagai aplikasi komersial dan industri, terutama untuk pembentukan logam campuran terutama baja tidak berkarat (stainless steel). 7% produksi nikel digunakan untuk produksi stainless steel, sisanya untuk berbagai penggunaan industri seperti baterai, elektronika, aplikasi pesawat terbang dan turbin pembangkit listrik bertenaga gas. Pertumbuhan industri nikel sangat erat dengan pertumbuhan industri stainless steel dan sektor lainnya di atas korelasi tinggi dengan produksi industri. Sejak tahun 26 27, produksi industri global tumbuh pesat terutama di China produksi dan konsumsi nikel dunia tidak seimbang harga naik mencapai USD 54./ton pada 27. Your Trusted Professional 2

2 Situasi Pasar Nikel Dunia Krisis ekonomi global permintaan stainless steel menurun harga nikel kembali ke level sebelum tahun 26. Penurunan permintaan nikel stok nikel LME menumpuk, meskipun telah banyak perusahaan mengurangi produksi nikelnya. Produksi dan harga stainless steel masih berada pada level rendah. China meningkatkan produksi, Eropa & Jepang turun. Tahun 29 masih penuh dengan tantangan. Your Trusted Professional 3 Harga vs stok nikel LME USD/Ton 6, 55, 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Apr4 Jan4 Oct3 Jul3 Apr3 Jan3 Oct2 Jul2 Apr2 Jan2 Oct1 Jul1 Apr1 Jan1 Jul6 Apr6 Jan6 Oct5 Jul5 Apr5 Jan5 Oct4 Jul4 Jan9 Oct8 Jul8 Apr8 Jan8 Oct7 Jul7 Apr7 Jan7 Oct6 Apr9 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Ton Nickel Stocks (RHS) Nickel Price (LHS) Your Trusted Professional 4

3 Produksi Stainless Steel Dunia Your Trusted Professional 5 Kegunaan dan manfaat timah Solder Pabrik kimia Baju anti api Pembuatan stabiliser pvc, pestisida dan pengawet kayu Pelat timah untuk kemasan kaleng Campuran tambal gigi Lapisan timah pada stik golf Tutup botol anggur Perlengkapan rumah tangga sehari hari Lapisan pada kawat dan tembaga Your Trusted Professional 6

4 Industri dan Pasar Timah Dunia Keharusan penggunaan timah bebas timbal untuk solder (5%), tinplate (19%) dan tin chemical (12%) kebutuhan timah meningkat. Produsen timah dunia : China (36%), Indonesia (28%) dan Peru (12%). Sisanya negara negara di Amerika Selatan, Eropa Timur, Afrika dan Australia. Produksi China untuk konsumsi domestik Indonesia eksportir terbesar pengaruhi harga. Penertiban dan pengetatan ekspor timah RI tahun 27 pasokan timah dunia turun dan harga naik hingga USD 25./ton pada Mei 28. Krisis ekonomi global Oktober 28 permintaan dan harga timah turun tajam. Permintaan timah tahun 29 diperkirakan turun 2 25% dari tahun 28 yang sebesar 36. ton. Your Trusted Professional 7 Harga vs stok timah LME USD/Ton 28, 26, 24, 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Apr4 Jan4 Oct3 Jul3 Apr3 Jan3 Oct2 Jul2 Apr2 Jan2 Oct1 Jul1 Apr1 Jan1 Oct6 Jul6 Apr6 Jan6 Oct5 Jul5 Apr5 Jan5 Oct4 Jul4 Jan9 Oct8 Jul8 Apr8 Jan8 Oct7 Jul7 Apr7 Jan7 Apr9 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Ton Tin Stocks (RHS) Tin Price (LHS) Your Trusted Professional 8

5 Financial Highlights ANTM's Profit & Loss INCO's Profit&Loss IDR Billions Q1 29 USD Thousands Q1 29 Sales Gross Profit Opr. Profit Net Incom e Sales Opr Profit Net Income TINS's Profit & Loss 1, 8, IDR Billions 6, 4, 2, Q1 29 Sales Gross Profit Opr. Profit Ne t Incom e Your Trusted Professional 9 Balance Sheet 14 ANTM's Balance Sheet 25 INCO's Balance Sheet IDR Billions USD Thousands Q Q1 29 Assets Liabilities Equity Assets Liabilities Equity TIN's Balance Sheet 7, 6, IDR Billions 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Q1 29 Assets Liabilities Equity Your Trusted Professional 1

6 Kinerja Triwulan I 29 Aneka Tambang Tbk, PT 1Q 29 Income Statement (in billion IDR) 1Q 29 1Q 28 YoY Revenue 2, , % COGS 2, , % Gross Profit , % Operating Expenses % Operating Profit % Other net % Pre tax Profit % Tax expense % Minority Interest % Net Profit % Inco Tbk, PT 1Q 29 Income Statement (in million USD) 1Q 29 1Q 28 YoY Revenue % COGS % Gross Profit % Operating Expenses % Operating Profit % Other net % Pre tax Profit % Tax expense % Net Profit % Timah Tbk, PT 1Q 29 Income Statement (in billion IDR) 1Q 29 1Q 28 YoY Revenue 1, , % COGS 1, % Gross Profit % Operating Expenses % Operating Profit % Other net (39.28) % Pre tax Profit % Tax expense % Minority Interest (.1) (.1) 85.71% Net Profit % Your Trusted Professional 11 Balance Sheet Q1 29 Aneka Tambang Tbk, PT 1Q 29 Balance Sheet (in billion IDR) 1Q 29 1Q 28 YoY Total Assets 1, , % Total Liabilities 2, , % Total Equity 8, , % Cash & Equivalents 3, , % Inco Tbk, PT 1Q 29 Balance Sheet (in million USD) 1Q 29 1Q 28 YoY Total Assets 1, , % Total Liabilities % Total Equity 1, , % Cash & Equivalents % Timah Tbk, PT 1Q 29 Balance Sheet (in billion IDR) 1Q 29 1Q 28 YoY Total Assets 5, , % Total Liabilities 1, , % Total Equity 3, , % Cash & Equivalents , % Your Trusted Professional 12

7 Revenue Breakdown Q1 29 ANTM ANTM's Sales Breakdown By Segment Feronickel 5.2% Nickel ore 9.8% Bauxite ore Other metal Silver.5%.% 4.2% Iron sand.% Services.% IDR Billions Q1 9 Gold 8.1% Nickel Gold Others TINS Batubara 8.7% Timah 9.9% Jasa Konstruksi dll.4% Your Trusted Professional 13 Margins ANTM INCO 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % Q1 29 % Q1 29 GPM OPM NPM GPM OPM NPM 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % TINS Q1 29 GPM OPM NPM Your Trusted Professional 14

8 Debt Equity Ratio Q1 29 ANTM INCO TINS Your Trusted Professional 15 ANTM vs INCO vs Nickel Price 6, 12 5, 1 USD/ton 4, 3, 2, , Jan1 Jul1 Jan2 Jul2 Jan3 Jul3 Jan4 Jul4 Jan5 Jul5 Jan6 Jul6 Jan7 Jul7 Jan8 Jul8 Jan9 IDR/share 2 Nickel Price ANTM INCO Your Trusted Professional 16

9 TINS vs Tin Price 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Jan1 Jul1 Jan2 Jul2 Jan3 Jul3 Jan4 Jul4 Jan5 Jul5 Jan6 Jul6 Jan7 Jul7 Jan8 Jul8 Jan9 USD/Ton 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 IDR/Share Tin Price TINS Your Trusted Professional 17 PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) Investment Opportunity: Pulihnya ekonomi picu kenaikan harga komoditas dan volume penjualan Diversifikasi produk Jumlah kas cukup banyak Investment Risk: Pemulihan ekonomi tertunda harga nikel kembali melemah Key Ratio 27A 28A 29E 21F 211F EPS (IDR) BV (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Gross Margin 61.4% 27.64% 15.% 2.% 25.% Operating Margin 56.44% 15.16% 1.94% 15.94% 2.94% Net Margin 42.63% 14.26% 9.4% 12.54% 16.4% ROA (%) 42.5% 13.35% 6.5% 8.67% 12.% ROE (%) 58.5% 16.97% 7.41% 1.27% 13.79% DER (x) DAR (x) Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp 245 (ass: ASP nikel $14./ton, ASP emas $9/oz) EPS 9E : Rp 64 PER 9E: 37,8X PBV 9E: 2,8X Your Trusted Professional 18

10 International Nickel Indonesia (INCO) Investment Opportunity: Pulihnya ekonomi picu kenaikan harga komoditas dan volume penjualan PLTA > efisiensi biaya Investment Risk: Pemulihan ekonomi tertunda harga nikel kembali melemah PLTA > produksi menurun Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp 365 (ass: ASP nikel $11.5/ton) EPS 9E : $,1 PER 9E: 42,29X PBV 9E: 2,37X Key Ratio 27A 28A 29E 21F 211F EPS (USD) BV (USD) PER (x) PBV (x) Gross Margin 7.64% 38.38% 22.84% 3.48% 42.4% Operating Margin 68.29% 36.45% 18.23% 26.81% 39.22% Net Margin 5.43% 27.38% 12.59% 17.87% 26.67% ROA (%) 62.16% 19.5% 4.71% 7.73% 13.43% ROE (%) 84.6% 23.63% 5.61% 9.11% 15.57% DER (x) DAR (x) Your Trusted Professional 19 PT Timah Tbk (TINS) Investment Opportunity: Pulihnya ekonomi picu kenaikan harga komoditas dan volume penjualan Produsen timah terbesar no.2 di dunia Eksportir timah terbesar di dunia Investment Risk: Pemulihan ekonomi tertunda harga timah kembali melemah Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp 188 (ass: ASP timah $14./ton) EPS 9E : Rp 15 PER 9E: 17,93 X PBV 9E: 2,39 X Key Ratio 27A 28A 29E 21F 211F EPS (IDR) BV (IDR) PER (x) PBV (x) Gross Margin 37.18% 3.3% 23.64% 24.25% 26.28% Operating Margin 31.99% 22.87% 16.13% 17.32% 19.53% Net Margin 2.89% 14.83% 9.37% 1.26% 11.89% ROA (%) 35.46% 23.2% 8.77% 1.7% 12.32% ROE (%) 53.13% 35.13% 13.35% 15.38% 18.82% DER (x) DAR (x) Your Trusted Professional 2

11 Thank You & Good Luck DISCLAIMER This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Mega Capital Indonesia. Your Trusted Professional