Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Bloomberg: RALS.IJ Reuters: RALS.JK

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1 Company Update Bloomberg: RALS.IJ Reuters: RALS.JK Samuel Equity Research Still Sluggish RALS telah mengeluarkan laporan keuangan 1Q16, dan pada periode ini, kinerja secara keseluruhan tercatat kurang memuaskan, dengan penjualan hanya tercatat Rp1.09 triliun (1Q15: Rp1.12 triliun) dan laba bersih juga hanya tercatat sebesar Rp9.0 miliar, di bawah eskpektasi kami dan konsensus, meskipun angka tersebut naik dari periode yang sama tahun lalu (1Q15: Rp5.5 miliar). Kami melihat, daya beli masyarakat terutama di luar pulau Jawa yang belum sepenuhnya pulih menjadi penyebab utama belum membaiknya kinerja RALS. Dengan strategi yang kurang ekspansif dan ekonomi Indonesia yang belum menunjukkan tanda-tanda perbaikan secara signifikan, kami mengurangi target rata rata pertumbuhan penjualan untuk 16E menjadi 3.5%YoY (perkiraan sebelumnya: 4.5%YoY). Tetap HOLD untuk RALS dengan TP Rp700/lembar saham. Kinerja 1Q16 di bawah estimasi. Untuk 1Q16 ini, RALS mengalami penurunan penjualan bersih sebesar 3%YoY (1Q16: Rp1.09 triliun vs 1Q15: Rp1.12 triliun). Capaian tersebut relatif in-line, meskipun hanya mencapai 18.9% dan 19.2% dari estimasi kami dan konsensus untuk total penjualan 16E, karena secara historis, pada umumnya penjualan bersih pada kuartal pertama hanya mampu mencapai ±18% dari total proyeksi penjualan untuk setahun. Sementara itu, laba bersih berada di bawah estimasi kami dan konsensus (hanya 2.7% terhadap total proyeksi laba bersih 16E), meskipun strategi perusahaan untuk memperbesar porsi barang konsinyasi berhasil meningkatkan gross profit margin dan net profit margin sebesar 440 bps dan 30bps. Dengan strategi perusahaan yang tetap konservatif dan daya beli masyarakat yang belum sepenuhnya pulih, untuk tahun ini kami mengurangi target pertumbuhan penjualan menjadi 3.5%YoY (proyeksi sebelumnya: 4.5%YoY), sementara kami memprediksi SSSG hanya akan berkisar 0.6% pada 16E. Masih mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD. All in all, kami menilai kinerja fundamental RALS masih belum dapat menunjukkan perbaikan yang signifikan terutama untuk tahun ini, jika dilihat dari segi: 1). Kurang agresifnya pembukaan toko baru, 2). Konversi bisnis supermarket ke bawah naungan SPAR yang membutuhkan jangka waktu yang panjang agar dapat memberikan dampak positif 3). Masih rendahnya harga komoditas di Pulau Jawa, 4). Capaian kinerja perusahaan yang kurang memuaskan sampai 1Q16. HOLD (TP: Rp700/lembar saham, 16E PE: 13.8x, PBV: 1.4x). Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp690 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) 14A 15E 16E 17E Revenue 5,861 5,533 5,729 6,025 EBITDA Net Profit EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) BV per Share (Rp) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report. 3 May 2016 Target Price Rp 700 Last Price Rp 690 Potential Upside 1% JCI Index 4,812 Share isued (bn) 7.10 Market Cap. (Rp tn) Weeks High/Low 490/845 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 0.00 Free Float 42.4% Nominal Value Rp 100 Book value/share 16 Relative to JCI Chart Company Background Shareholder Structure HOLD (Maintain) JCI RALS Marlene Tanumihardja [email protected] Rp Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 PT is an Indonesianbased retail chain operator catering the needs of low er to low er-middle market. The company operates more than 100 stores know n as Ramayana, Robinson and Cahaya. Ramayana Makmursentosa 55.9% Paulus Tumew u 3.7% Public 40.5% Page 1 of 6

2 No. of Stores Tuesday, 03 May 2016 RALS.IJ / RALS.JK Figure 1. SSSG Performance (YTD March 16) 15.0% 12.2% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 5.5% 3.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% Jan'16 Feb'16 March'16-1.9% -3.0%-2.8% -4.1% -5.1% -6.6% National Greater Jakarta Rest of Java Outer Java Source: Company Figure 2. Product Mix Breakdown (By Sales) 102% 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 8% 12% 88% 92% 1Q16 1Q15 Outright Consignment Source: Company Figure 3. Store Expansions F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Total Stores % stores growth (RHS) Source: Company, SSI estimates Page 2 of 6

3 Tuesday, 03 May 2016 RALS.IJ / RALS.JK Figure 4. Quarterly Performance (in Rp bn) 4Q15 1Q16 QoQ 1Q16 1Q15 YoY 1Q16/'16E 1Q16/'16Cons Sales 1,267 1, % 1,086 1, % 18.9% 19.2% COGS % % Gross Profit % % 19.1% 18.9% Total Operating Expense (415) (410) -1.2% (410) (390) 5.1% Selling Expense (102) (88) -13.7% (88) (84) 4.8% G&A Expense (313) (322) 2.9% (322) (306) 5.2% Operating Profit 12 (16) N/A (16) (33) -51.5% -6.3% -5.3% Non-Operating Income (expense) % % Pre-tax Income % % Tax % % Net Income % % 2.7% 2.7% EPS Profitability Gross margin 33.7% 36.3% -2.6% 36.3% 31.9% 4.4% Operating margin 0.9% -1.5% 2.4% -1.5% -2.9% 1.5% Pre-tax margin 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Net margin 2.6% 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% Source: Company, SSI estimates Page 3 of 6

4 Tuesday, 03 May 2016 RALS.IJ / RALS.JK Key Financials Profit and Loss Cash Flow Rp bn 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Revenue 5,861 5,533 5,728 5,988 Net income COGS (3,813) (3,537) (3,649) (3,803) Depreciation & amort Gross profit 2,048 1,996 2,079 2,186 Others Gross margin (%) Working capital (203) (73) Operating profit Operating cash flow Operating margin (%) Net - Capital expenditure (127) (90) (332) (277) EBITDA Investing cash flow (53) (17) (260) (291) EBITDA margin (%) Net - Borrowings Other income (expenses) Other financing (183) (315) (133) (138) Pre-tax profit Financing cash flow (183) (315) (133) (138) Income tax - net (33) (29) (61) (63) Net - Cash flow (112) 11 Net profit Cash at beginning 1,273 1,653 1,828 1,716 Net profit margin (%) Cash at ending 1,652 1,828 1,716 1,727 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Cash & ST Investment 1,653 1,828 1,716 1,727 ROE (%) Receivables ROA (%) Inventories ,081 1,130 Revenue growth (%) Others EBITDA growth (%) Total current assets 2,695 2,832 2,998 3,072 EPS growth (%) Net fixed assets 1,375 1,333 1,527 1,661 Interest coverage (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a Other assets Debt to equity (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a Total assets 4,555 4,576 4,865 5,086 Net gearing (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity Major Assumptions Other current liabilities A 15A 16E 17E LT. debt SSSG (%) Other long term liabilities Store area ('000 sqm) ,023 1,052 Total liabilities 1,195 1,241 1,350 1,380 Inventory days Total equity 3,359 3,334 3,514 3,706 Inflation Rate (%) Page 4 of 6

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6 DISCLAIMERS Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. Page 6 of 6