London Sumatra Indonesia Bloomberg: LSIP.IJ Reuters: LSIP.JK

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1 Company Update London Sumatra Indonesia Bloomberg: LSIP.IJ Reuters: LSIP.JK Samuel Equity Research Strong Fundamental LSIP telah membukukan laporan keuangan 1Q16 di bawah ekspektasi kami. Laba bersih hanya mencapai Rp50.5 miliar, atau turun 67%YoY (1Q15: Rp 153miliar), di mana penurunan tersebut sejalan dengan penurunan top line. Kami berharap adanya prospek lebih baik untuk LSIP yang di topang oleh kenaikan harga CPO yang diproyeksikan akan mengalami uptrend di 2Q16. LSIP merupakan perusahaan dengan neraca keuangan yang sehat dengan likuiditas baik, dan didukung oleh solidnya manajemen operasional yang mampu untuk mendukung ekspansi dan pertumbuhan di masa mendatang. Kami tetap optimis terhadap kinerja perusahaan yang didukung dengan strong fundamental perusahaan dan zero debt level. Kami merekomendasikan BUY dengan TP 1900, harga tersebut merefleksikan 17.8x P/E16E dan 1.6x PBV16E. Kinerja 1Q16 di bawah ekspektasi. Pada 1Q16, LSIP mencatatkan kinerja yang menurun, dengan pencapaian laba bersih dibawah estimasi kami, yakni Rp 50.5miliar (turun 67%YoY). Pencapaian tersebut hanya 7% dari proyeksi SSI dan konsensus. Penurunan kinerja terutama di topang oleh menurunnya harga jual ratarata CPO LSIP, hanya Rp6,580 per kg (1Q15: Rp7,878). Faktor harga jual ratarata CPO yang menurun dan naiknya biaya produksi membuat gross profit margin dan net profit margin LSIP masing masing tertekan sebesar 10%QoQ dan 13%QoQ. Namun demikian, volume penjualan tetap sesuai estimasi kami, yaitu 94 ribu ton yakni 22.46% terhadap proyeksi total penjualan CPO 16E. Optimisme dengan kenaikan harga CPO. Tren harga CPO diasumsikan akan bergerak positif di 2Q16, dan kami memproyeksikan harga ratarata CPO tahun ini dapat melampaui harga pada tahun lalu, yaitu berada di level US$ 660/ton (+7.5%) FY16 dan US$ 700/ton (+6%) FY17 jika dibandingkan dengan harga ratarata CPO US$ 614/ton FY15. Kami melihat tren kenaikan harga CPO di dorong oleh: (1). Elnino pada tahun 2015 mengakibatkan menurunnya produksi sehingga menekan pasokan CPO ke pasar global. (2) Program pemerintah mengenai peningkatan penggunaan biodiesel berbasis sawit di Indonesia, yang akan meningkatkan demand, dengan asumsi keniakan harga CPO fund Indonesia digunakan secara maksimal. Maka, untuk jangka menengah, kami melihat dari posisi ekuilibrium antara supply dan demand, harga CPO cenderung bergerak naik. Maintain BUY dengan TP Rp1,900/saham. Didukung oleh: (1) Fokus LSIP pada bisnis perkebunan tanpa adanya eksposur di bisnis hilir, membuat perusahaan diuntungkan dengan kenaikan harga CPO. (2) LSIP merupakan perusahaan dengan zero debt level yang mampu membiayai kebutuhan dengan internal cash. (3) Positif sinergi dengan grup Indofood,berkisar 65% penjulan LSIP tertuju untuk SIMP setiap tahunnya. Kami merekomendasikan BUY untuk LSIP dengan potensi kenaikan harga sebesar 24% dari harga saat ini, target harga tersebut merefleksikan 17.8x P/E16E dan 1.6x PBV16E. 18 May 2016 Target Price Rp 1,900 Last Price Rp 1,535 Potential Upside 24% JCI Index 4,830 Share isued (bn) 6.82 Market Cap. (Rp tn) Weeks High/Low 1840/910 Avg Daily Vol (mn) Free Float 40.04% Nominal Value Rp 100 Book value/share 16 Relative to JCI Chart Company Background Shareholder Structure BUY (Maintain) JCI LSIP 60 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Rp1,147 PT London Sumatra Plantation Tbk established in LSIP is the oldest plantation company w ithin our plantation coverage. In 2015, LSIP holds total planted area of 114k ha including 94.02k Ha palm oil estate and 16.93k ha rubber plantation. Palm oil products formed ed 90.4% total revenues in 2015, w hile rubber contributing 5.8% to total topline. Salim Invomas Pratama Tbk 59.5% Public 40.5% Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp 1535 per share) Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Revenue 4,727 4,190 4,580 5,155 EBITDA 1,463 1,084 1,249 1,493 Net Profit EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) BV per Share (Rp) 1,058 1,075 1,147 1,238 EV/EBITDA (x) P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Figure 1. Quarterly Result Comparison Sharlita Malik [email protected] Page 1 of 5 DISCLAIMERS: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

2 (in Rp bn) 4Q15 1Q16 QoQ 1Q15 1Q16 YoY 1Q16/'16Cons 1Q16/'16E Sales and Revenues 1, % % 19% 19% COGS (898) (643) 28.5% (657) (643) 2% Gross Profit % % 12% 12% Total Operating Exp. (714) (76) 89.4% (82) (76) 8% Operating Profit % % 25% 24% Other Income Net (2) % 48 (10) 121% Forex gain/(loss) (6) (5) 24.8% (7) (5) 32% Others % % Pretax Income % % Minority Interest (5) (20) 300.0% (3) (20) 567% Tax (338) (17) 94.9% (41) (17) 58% Net Income % % 7% 7% Profitability Gross margin 19.30% 18.15% 28.84% 18.15% Operating margin 83.41% 26.70% 39.07% 26.70% Pretax margin 19.30% 7.61% 24.13% 7.61% Net margin 13.80% 5.68% 19.04% 5.68% Figure 2. Monthly Average CPO Price (CIF Rotterdam) Figure 3. LSIPForward P/E Band Dec10 Jun11 Dec11 Jun12 Dec12 Jun13 Dec13 Jun14 Dec14 Jun15 Dec15 Average ST dev +1 ST dev 1 PER Roll ST dev +2 ST dev 2 Page 2 of 5

3 Figure 4. LSIP s FFB Production E CAGR: 4.9% Figure 5. LSIP s FFB Processed E CAGR: 3.4% 1,800,000 2, 1,600,000 1,400,000 2,000,000 1,200,000 1, 800, , , ,000 Figure 6. LSIP s CPO Production E CAGR:5% Figure 7. LSIP s Production with Extraction Rate 600,000 FFB processed (LHS) CPO production (LHS) Extraction rate (RHS) 2, 23.4% 400, , , ,000 2,000,000 1, 23.2% 23.0% 22.8% 22.6% 22.4% 22.2% E 2017E 2018E 22.0% Figure 8. LSIP s Plant Maturity Profile end of 2015 Figure 9. LSIP s 1Q2016 Revenue Breakdown 2.80% 1.20% 5.10% 15% 13% 9% < 04 th th Palm production Rubber th > 20 th Seeds 64% 90.90% Others Source: Company Source: Company Page 3 of 5

4 Key Financials Profit and Loss Cash Flow Yrend Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yrend Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Revenue 4,727 4,190 4,580 5,155 EBIT 1, ,201 COGS (3,090) (3,074) (3,253) (3,560) Depreciation & Amor Gross profit 1,636 1,116 1,327 1,596 Others (4) (69) (5) 134 Gross margin (%) Working Capital change 37 (132) 204 (63) Operating profit 1, ,201 Operating Cash Flow 1, ,282 1,370 Operating margin (%) Net Capital Expenditure (1,013) (620) (755) (798) EBITDA 1,463 1,084 1,249 1,493 Investing Cash Flow (1,206) (1,110) (755) (798) EBITDA margin (%) Net Borrowings Other Income (Expenses) (52) (8) (37) (30) Others Pretax profit 1, ,171 Financial Cash Flow (348) (381) (232) (285) Income tax net (272) (195) (216) (268) Net Cash Flow (39) (641) Net profit Cash at beginning 1,401 1, ,033 Net profit margin (%) Cash at ending 1, ,033 1,320 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yrend Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yrend Dec 14A 15A 16E 17E Cash & ST Investment 1, ,033 1,320 ROE (%) Receivables ROA (%) Inventories Revenue Growth (%) 14.3 (11.4) Others EBITDA Growth (%) 21.2 (25.9) Total Current Assets 1,864 1,269 1,555 1,926 EPS Growth (%) 19.1 (32.0) Net fixed assets 3,239 3,428 3,638 3,933 Interest Coverage (x) Other assets 3,553 4,152 4,340 4,446 Debt to Equity (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a Total Assets 8,655 8,849 9,533 10,305 Net gearing (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a Payables ST. debt and curr. maturity Major assumption Other current liabilities Yrend Dec 14A 15A 16E 17E LT. debt CPO price (US$/ton) Other long term liabilities GDP growth (%) Total Liabilities 1,436 1,511 1,701 1,856 Inflation Rate (%) Minority Interest (0.1) Equity 7,219 7,331 7,825 8,442 USDIDR 11,881 13,500 13,650 13,200 Page 4 of 5

5 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research Strategy, Banking, Consumer Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Senior Analyst Auto, Heavy Equipment, Property, Cigarette, Media, Aviation, Healthcare Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Analyst Mining, Plantation Adrianus Bias Prasuryo Senior Analyst Cement,Construction, Utility Marlene Tanumihardja Analyst Retail, Poultry, Consumer, Small Cap Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate Rangga Cipta Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Indices, Equities, Commodities, Currencies, Fixed Income Team Kelvin Long Director of Equities Evelyn Satyono Head of Institutional Lucia Irawati Head of Retail Yulianah Senior Institutional Sales Ronny Ardianto Institutional Ferry Khusaeri Indra S. Affandi Senior Institutional Sales Muhammad Isfandi Institutional Peter Hamsja Jovita Widjaja Clarice Wijana Institutional Iwan Setiadi James Wihardja Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head Of Marketing OLT Rina Lestari SPV Customer Service Page 5 of 5