Bank BNI Bloomberg: BBNI:IJ Reuters: BBNI.JK

Transkripsi

1 Company Update Bank BNI Bloomberg: BBNI:IJ Reuters: BBNI.JK Samuel Research 02 Februari 2017 Target Price Rp 6,600 Last Price Rp 5,950 Potential Upside 10.9% JCI Index 5,340 Share Issued (mn) 18,649 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 110, Weeks High/Low 6,075/4,270 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 16.7 Free Float 40% Nominal Value 375 (Class C) Book value/share 17 Rp 5,287 Relative to JCI Chart BUY (Maintain) 40% BBNI 20% JCI 0% Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16-20% -40% Company Background PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk pada aw alnya didirikan sebagai bank sentral pada tahun Di tahun 1968, bank ini menjadi bank komersial. Sekarang Bank BNI (BBNI) merupakan salah satu bank terbesar di Indonesia. Shareholder Structure Govt of Indonesia 60.0% Public 40.0% Andy Ferdinand, CFA Still Optimistic Sejalan dengan pencapaian FY16 yang 7% di atas ekspektasi kami, situasi terkini, dan guidance dari manajemen BBNI, kami menaikkan TP menjadi Rp (1,2x PBV 2017F). Pertumbuhan kredit BBNI tahun ini yang diperkirakan masih jauh melebihi industri dan biaya provisi NPL yang lebih kecil dari tahun lalu sejalan dengan meredanya tekanan pada kualitas aset kami lihat sebagai penopang kinerja di tahun ini. Tekanan pada kualitas aset melandai. NPL gross pada 4Q16 sebesar 3,0% (4Q15: 2,7%, 2Q16: 3,0%, 3Q16: 3,1%) dan terlihat lebih stabil. Hal yang sama ditunjukkan pula oleh data manajemen berupa ratio loan at risk to gross loan dan restructured loan to loan yang sudah lebih stabil. Pendapat kami adalah tekanan pada kualitas aset akan cenderung berkurang di tahun ini, sementara total kredit akan terus tumbuh, sehingga NPL secara persentase akan flat cenderung turun, dimana manajemen menargetkan NPL <3% tahun ini. Sementara itu, coverage ratio direncanakan naik secara bertahap. Ekspansi agresif dengan tetap berfokus pada kualitas aset. Kami melihat permintaan kredit infrastruktur masih akan tinggi di tahun ini sepanjang proyek pemerintah terus berjalan. Kredit infrastruktur naik 30,3% pada FY16. Selain kredit ke SoE, pertumbuhan kredit 2016 ditopang oleh segmen korporasi, small, dan medium yang masing-masing memiliki NPL relatif tinggi. Kami menilai positif langkah manajemen untuk agak menahan kredit di business banking tersebut demi menjaga kualitas aset secara keseluruhan. Tetap optimis dengan pertumbuhan di tahun ini. Kami memperkirakan pertumbuhan kredit 18-20% di tahun ini sejalan dengan guidance manajemen, dengan NIM yang agak turun seiring berlanjutnya tren penurunan suku bunga kredit sesuai arahan BI dan kemungkinan naiknya suku bunga acuan BI. Fee-based income dan opex diperkirakan naik 18-21% dan 14-16% sesuai perkiraan manajemen. Maintain Buy and upgrade TP. Setelah merevisi forecast sejalan dengan situasi terkini, kinerja FY16 yang 7% di atas ekspektasi kami, serta guidance manajemen, kami mempertahankan rekomendasi Buy dengan target price dinaikkan menjadi Rp 6,600 (1,2x PBV 2017F). Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp5,950 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Net Interest Income 25,559 29,994 33,159 36,726 Pre Provision Profit 18,748 22,082 23,850 25,818 Net Profit 9,066 11,339 14,277 15,943 EPS (Rp) DPS (Rp) Dividend Yield (%) BV per Share (Rp) 4,098 4,674 5,287 5,951 P/E Ratio (x) P/BV Ratio (x) Page 1 of 5

2 Figure 1. FY16 Result (Reported figures) Rpbn 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 QoQ YoY FY15 FY16 YoY FY16E % to FY16E Net Interest Income 6,537 7,963 8, % 24.2% 25,560 29, % 27, % Operating Profit 3,868 4,223 4, % 16.4% 11,412 14, % 13, % Pre Provision Profit 4,801 6,101 5, % 19.7% 18,748 22, % 19, % Net Profit 3,069 3,346 3, % 18.0% 9,067 11, % 10, % Bank Only: NIM 6.4% 6.2% BOPO 75.5% 73.6% LDR 87.8% 90.4% Gross NPL 2.7% 3.0% Figure 2. Loan Composition Rpbn FY15 FY16 Growth Composition Business Banking Corporate 80,238 95, % 24.3% SOE 57,671 78, % 19.9% Medium 51,147 61, % 15.6% Small 42,076 50, % 12.9% Subtotal 231, , % 72.7% Consumer Banking Mortgage 34,664 36, % 9.3% Credit Card 9,789 10, % 2.7% Payroll 3,923 8, % 2.3% Others 9,164 9, % 2.3% Subtotal 57,540 65, % 16.5% Overseas 19,538 21, % 5.4% Subsidiaries 17,896 20, % 5.3% TOTAL 326, , % 100.0% Figure 3. Deposit Composition Rpbn FY15 FY16 Growth Composition Time Deposit 144, , % 35.4% Saving Account 135, , % 36.4% Current Account 91, , % 28.2% TOTAL 370, , % 100.0% Page 2 of 5

3 Figure 4. NPL, Gross by Segment (%) Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Corporate Consumer Medium Small Overall Overseas Figure 5. Asset Quality Ratios (%) Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Loan at Risk to Gross Loan Restructured to Loan Gross NPL Figure 6. Rolling Forward PBV Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-1 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PBV - Forward ST dev +2 ST dev -2 Source: SSI Research Page 3 of 5

4 Key Financials Profit and Loss Key Ratio (may differ slightly from reported figures) (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17F 18F 15A 16A 17F 18F Net Interest Income 25,559 29,994 33,159 36,726 Profitability Operating Profit 11,412 14,229 17,952 20,045 NIM 6.5% 6.3% 5.9% 5.7% Pre Provision Profit 18,748 22,082 23,850 25,818 ROAE 13.4% 13.9% 15.4% 15.2% Profit before Tax 11,466 14,302 18,025 20,118 ROAA 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% Net Profit 9,066 11,339 14,277 15,943 CIR 50.3% 51.5% 52.9% 54.3% BOPO 76.7% 76.0% 73.4% 73.7% Liquidity Balance Sheet LDR 88.0% 90.3% 90.4% 90.7% Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17F 18F CASA Ratio 61.1% 64.6% 65.7% 65.9% Cash 12,890 11,168 13,565 13,238 CA and Placement 73,349 70,108 80,197 91,356 Asset Quality Marketable Securities 9,928 23,765 26,144 28,757 Gross NPL 2.7% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% Gross Loan 326, , , ,917 NPL Coverage 138% 143% 147% 150% Loan Provision (12,039) (16,680) (19,884) (22,937) Government Bonds 47,222 63,006 69,307 76,237 Capital Other Assets 51,140 58,390 66,279 76,882 CAR 20.0% 18.9% 17.4% 16.4% Total Assets 508, , , ,451 Deposits 370, , , ,354 Growth Rate Current Account 91, , , ,607 Gross Loan 17.5% 20.6% 19.0% 19.0% Saving Account 135, , , ,457 Deposits 18.0% 17.6% 18.9% 18.7% Time Deposit 144, , , ,290 Net Interest Income 12.3% 17.4% 10.6% 10.8% Deposits from Other Ban 4,697 10,224 10,735 11,272 Operating Income -14.5% 24.7% 26.2% 11.7% Borrowings 22,524 32,965 34,613 36,344 Net Profit -15.9% 25.1% 25.9% 11.7% Securities Issued 6,871 6,731 6,933 7,141 Other Liabilities 25,645 28,314 32,770 38,057 Macro Total Liabilities 430, , , ,168 GDP Growth 4.7% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% Minority Interest 2,024 2,097 2,202 2,312 BI RR Rate 4.8% 4.8% 5.3% Total Equity 76,413 87,156 98, ,971 USD/IDR, average 13,500 13,253 13,200 12,800 Page 4 of 5

5 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer Rangga Cipta Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] Aben Epapras Marketing [email protected] DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 5 of 5