RISET SAHAM HARIAN Samuel Equity Research Monday, 09 May 2016 Market Activity Monday, 09 May 2016 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 4,822.6 : +10.3 (+0.2%) : 3,532 Mn shrs : 4,222 Bn rupiah Leading Movers UNVR 45,150 1375 3.1 TLKM 3,490 50 1.5 HMSP 99,975 1075 1.1 INTP 19,400 550 2.9 Lagging Movers BBRI 10,350-175 -1.7 BMRI 9,700-150 -1.5 PGAS 2,460-50 -2.0 UNTR 14,200-300 -2.1 Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) GGRM 46 TLKM 94 BBNI 23 ASII 85 ICBP 21 BBRI 45 UNVR 19 PTBA 24 BBTN 17 PGAS 24 Money Market USD/IDR 13,240 45.0-0.3 JIBOR O/N 5.0 0.1 - Infl (MoM) -0.5 - - Dual Listing Securities TLKM 52.4-0.2-0.3 ISAT 34.5-0.1-0.2 EIDO 22.4 0.1 0.4 World Indices DJIA 17,741 80 0.5 S&P 500 2,057 7 0.3 Euro Stoxx 2,937-4 -0.1 MSCI World 1,643 2 0.1 Nikkei 16,107-41 -0.3 Hang Seng 20,110-340 -1.7 IHSG diwarnai beragam sentimen Data klaim pengangguran pada kamis lalu dan non-farm payrolls pada jumat lalu yang lebih buruk dari ekspektasi menjadi sentimen negatif di bursa AS. Namun, sentimen positif datang dari kenaikan harga minyak dunia seiring ekspektasi menurunnya supply oil sands dari Kanada akibat kebakaran besar di negara itu. Setelah libur panjang kemarin, IHSG hari ini berpotensi dipengaruhi beragam sentimen dan cenderung melemah. Selain dari yang disebutkan di atas, USD index yang menguat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi 1Q16 dalam negeri yang di bawah 5% menekan nilai tukar rupiah saat ini. Sepanjang libur IHSG kemarin, S&P500 dan EIDO tercatat melemah masing-masing sekitar 0,3% dan 1,3%. Bursa di regional dibuka mixed pagi ini. Highlights ELSA : Sediakan dana Rp50 miliar SUGI : Masih mampu membayar kewajiban Properti : Masih mengalami pelemahan Infrastructure: Tol Cikampek II ditenderkan Commodities WTI Oil 46 1.0 2.1 CPO Malay 2,628-1.0 0.0 Coal Newc 51-0.1-0.3 Nickel 9,032 45.5 0.5 Tin 17,476 75.0 0.4 www.samuel.co.id DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
ELSA: Sediakan dana Rp50 miliar PT Elnusa Tbk. (ELSA) bersiap menggelontorkan dana Rp400 Rp500 miliar untuk ekspansi bisnis tahun ini. Anak usaha dari PT Pertamina (Persero) tersebut akan memakai dana tersebut untuk membeli alat baru dan meremajakan alat lama. Mayoritas dari sumber dana belanja tahun ini, yakni sebesar 70%, akan berasal dari utang bank, dan sisanya 30% berasal dari kas internal. ELSA juga akan berburu kontrak luar negeri berupa pekerjaan memelihara sumur dan menjual karya pabrikasi. Adapun negara-negara yang dibidik antara lain: Myanmar, Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam, Timur Tengah, dan Afrika. (Kontan) ELSA: Non-coverage, 16E PE:9.3x, PBV: 1.2x. SUGI: Masih mampu membayar kewajiban Anak usaha dari PT Sugih Energy TbK, Petroselat Ltd, masih mampu untuk menyelesaikan kewajibannya kepada PT Richland Logistics Indonesia dan PT Sentosasegara Mulia Shipping dengan masing masing sebesar US$ 402.027 dan US$ 448.442. Petroselat merupakan anak usaha SUGI yang menjadi operator blok Selat Panjang yang berlokasi di Riau. Kepemilikan sahamnya terdiri dari 55% milik SUGI dan sisanya dikuasai PetroChina International SelatPanjang Ltd. SUGI melihat dengan adanya gas alam produksi Petroselat yang di jual kepada PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) dan beberapa kontrak dengan perusahaan lainnya, Petroselat masih mampu untuk membayar kewajibannya. (Bisnis Indonesia) Non-coverage. Infrastructure: Tol Cikampek II ditenderkan Kementerian PUPera lewat Badan Pengatur Jalan Tol (BPJT) tengah menyiapkan tender tol Cikampek II yang bertujuan untuk mengurangi kepadatan lalu lintas. JSMR dengan menggandeng PT Wira Nusantara Bumi Tollroad Development Consultant (Wira) mendirikan konsorsium dimana JSMR menguasai 60% dan sisanya dikuasai Wira. Konsorsium tersebut mengikuti tender proyek ini, dimana JSMR merupakan inisiatornya. Total nilai investasi proyek ini sebesar Rp 12-15 triliun namun angkanya masih bisa berubah. BPJT menyatakan ada beberapa perusahaan lain yang juga berminat menggarap proyek ini seperti Grup Astra, Grup Kompas Gramedia, PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada Tbk (CMNP), dan PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META). (Kontan) Infrastructure: Overweight. www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 6
Properti: Masih mengalami pelemahan Diberitakan bahwa kinerja 1Q16 emiten properti secara umum menurun secara yoy seiring kelesuan di sektor ini. Sejumlah analis menyatakan sejumlah kebijakan yang diterapkan pemerintah belum dapat mendorong sektor ini hingga saat ini. Penerapan tax amnesty, apabila diberlakukan, diperkirakan akan mendorong performa sektor properti. Emiten-emiten besar umumnya mencetak penurunan laba bersih di 1Q16, seperti CTRA (-37%yoy), BSDE (-67%yoy), dan SMRA (-89%yoy). PWON berhasil mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih 65% terutama akibat forex gain. (Kontan) Property: Neutral. www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 6
Ticker Rec. JCI Wgt price 1D Chg 1M Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside Banks (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E BMRI HOLD 4.4 9700 (1.5) (1.5) 4.9 10609 10200 5.2 10.1 8.5 1.7 1.5 16.8% 17.4% n/a n/a BBCA HOLD 6.3 13100 0.4 0.2 (1.5) 14388 13900 6.1 17.2 14.6 3.1 2.7 18.1% 18.2% n/a n/a BBRI HOLD 5.0 10350 (1.7) (4.2) (9.4) 12076 11500 11.1 10.0 8.7 2.0 1.7 19.5% 19.2% n/a n/a BBNI HOLD 1.7 4620 (0.2) (11.2) (7.4) 5775 5500 19.0 7.7 6.4 1.0 0.9 13.1% 14.0% n/a n/a Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 1.8 15350 0.3 1.5 13.9 16657 16500 7.5 26.0 23.4 5.1 4.6 19.7% 19.5% 17.8 15.2 INDF BUY 1.2 7200 0.0 (0.3) 39.1 8361 8000 11.1 16.9 13.8 2.1 1.9 12.6% 14.0% 8.9 7.9 KLBF BUY 1.2 1340 (0.4) (6.9) 1.5 1475 1610 20.1 29.1 24.4 5.4 4.7 18.5% 19.4% 19.1 16.0 ROTI BUY 0.1 1455 3.9 16.9 15.0 1462 1500 3.1 26.9 18.0 5.2 4.2 19.2% 23.3% 12.9 11.4 ULTJ BUY 0.2 4100 (1.9) 7.2 3.9 n/a 5000 22.0 18.7 15.6 4.2 3.5 22.6% 22.5% 11.7 10.0 UNVR HOLD 6.7 45150 3.1 5.0 22.0 40374 39000-13.6 53.2 48.6 64.6 57.9 121.5% 119.1% 37.6 34.5 Cigarette HMSP HOLD 9.1 99975 1.1 1.0 6.4 103431 109750 9.8 39.3 35.1 13.1 11.9 33.3% 33.8% 26.6 24.3 GGRM BUY 2.6 67900 (0.3) 2.9 23.5 75944 77150 13.6 20.0 18.6 3.0 2.7 15.2% 14.5% 14.4 13.6 Healthcare Retail MIKA BUY 0.7 2530 (2.7) 2.2 5.4 2702 2950 16.6 55.0 48.7 10.2 9.3 18.6% 19.0% 29.7 26.7 SILO HOLD 0.2 8800 (1.1) 3.5 (10.2) 10750 8600-2.3 125.7 96.7 5.6 5.4 4.5% 5.6% 15.2 12.4 MAPI BUY 0.1 4200 0.2 (4.5) 10.7 5100 5800 38.1 22.6 13.5 2.1 1.8 9.2% 13.4% 7.5 6.0 RALS HOLD 0.1 695 0.7 (0.7) 7.8 802 700 0.7 13.6 12.6 1.4 1.3 10.3% 10.5% 9.8 8.7 ACES BUY 0.3 895 (1.1) 7.8 8.5 927 1000 11.7 23.6 19.0 4.8 4.0 20.5% 21.0% 17.2 15.3 Telco EXCL BUY 0.6 3520 2.0 (9.7) (3.6) 4654 4600 30.7 21.7 19.2 1.9 1.8 8.9% 9.6% 5.8 5.0 ISAT HOLD 0.7 6400 (0.4) 2.8 16.4 7160 6600 3.1 29.0 19.5 2.6 2.3 8.9% 12.0% 4.2 3.7 TLKM HOLD 6.9 3490 1.5 1.8 12.9 3842 3500 0.3 21.0 18.7 4.3 3.8 20.5% 20.5% 6.9 6.3 Auto and HE ASII HOLD 5.3 6650 0.8 (7.6) 10.8 7142 6800 2.3 14.6 13.0 2.6 2.3 17.6% 17.8% 12.7 12.3 UNTR HOLD 1.0 14200 (2.1) (9.3) (16.2) 15444 16700 17.6 10.1 9.6 1.3 1.2 12.7% 12.5% 3.2 2.8 Aviation GIAA BUY 0.2 434 0.9 (10.5) 40.5 476 490 12.9 9.1 8.8 0.7 0.7 7.2% 7.7% 3.9 3.8 Property BSDE BUY 0.7 1795 1.7 (3.0) (0.3) 2162 1950 8.6 14.0 11.4 1.6 1.3 11.1% 11.8% 10.4 9.1 PWON BUY 0.5 505 (1.9) (1.9) 1.8 557 590 16.8 18.0 16.8 3.1 2.7 17.0% 15.8% 7.2 6.2 KPIG BUY 0.2 1245 0.4 (2.4) (11.7) n/a 1810 45.4 29.0 24.4 1.0 1.0 3.5% 4.1% n/a n/a ASRI HOLD 0.1 380 (3.1) (1.6) 10.8 373 350-7.9 11.5 9.5 1.0 1.0 9.1% 10.1% 5.9 5.1 SMRA BUY 0.4 1435 (3.0) (9.5) (13.0) 1753 1750 22.0 22.1 21.1 2.6 2.3 11.8% 11.0% 9.7 8.8 Construction PTPP HOLD 0.3 3630 (1.9) (4.6) (6.3) 4663 4000 10.2 21.6 17.8 5.0 4.1 23.1% 23.2% 9.4 8.2 ADHI HOLD 0.2 2600 (3.0) (5.8) 21.5 3299 2700 3.8 24.3 20.2 1.9 1.7 7.6% 8.6% 7.6 6.6 WSKT BUY 0.7 2550 4.5 17.0 52.7 2439 2200-13.7 41.8 32.7 3.6 3.3 8.6% 10.0% 22.0 18.7 WIKA BUY 0.3 2560 (3.0) (3.4) (3.0) 3024 3300 28.9 21.0 17.5 3.2 2.9 15.4% 16.4% 9.4 8.1 Cement INTP BUY 1.4 19400 2.9 (4.0) (13.1) 19886 22500 16.0 14.4 12.4 2.7 2.5 18.8% 19.9% 9.4 7.9 SMGR BUY 1.1 9825 0.3 (5.8) (13.8) 11687 13700 39.4 11.1 10.0 2.0 1.8 17.9% 17.9% 5.9 4.9 SMCB HOLD 0.2 1075 0.9 (1.4) 8.0 1031 950-11.6-1075.0 89.6 1.0 1.0-0.1% 1.1% 10.9 8.9 Utility PGAS BUY 1.2 2460 (2.0) (8.6) (10.4) 3125 3400 38.2 12.0 11.3 1.6 1.5 12.9% 12.9% 7.0 6.2 JSMR BUY 0.7 5425 (0.9) 1.4 3.8 6342 6500 19.8 22.6 21.3 3.1 2.9 13.9% 13.7% 11.8 11.3 Coal and Metal ANTM SELL 0.4 770 3.4 19.4 145.2 359 375-51.3-42.8 70.0 1.4 1.3-3.2% 1.9% 32.6 25.9 INCO BUY 0.3 1735 (4.1) (5.4) 6.1 1572 2400 38.3 63.6 15.9 0.7 0.7 1.1% 4.2% 99.1 66.6 TINS HOLD 0.1 715 (1.4) (15.9) 41.6 470 650-9.1 17.4 14.3 0.9 0.9 5.1% 6.0% 5.3 4.6 ITMG BUY 0.2 7850 (0.6) 14.2 37.1 5696 9000 14.6 7.2 5.8 0.7 0.7 10.3% 12.8% 2.1 1.7 ADRO HOLD 0.5 720 0.7 2.1 39.8 716 700-2.8 12.9 10.0 0.5 0.5 3.8% 4.8% 10.4 7.9 PTBA BUY 0.3 6600 (4.0) 0.8 45.9 7228 7800 18.2 9.2 7.3 1.4 1.3 15.6% 17.7% 6.9 5.2 Plantation AALI BUY 0.5 15725 (2.9) (6.7) (0.8) 19197 20000 27.2 18.9 16.2 2.0 1.8 10.4% 11.1% 11.6 10.5 LSIP BUY 0.2 1535 2.0 (11.5) 16.3 1767 1800 17.3 12.2 10.2 1.3 1.2 10.6% 11.7% 6.2 5.1 SIMP BUY 0.1 484 0.0 7.1 45.8 576 550 13.6 14.2 12.1 0.5 0.5 3.6% 4.1% 5.9 5.5 Poultry PE PBV ROE EV/EBITDA (x) CPIN HOLD 1.2 3750 2.5 3.6 44.2 3590 4000 6.7 23.6 19.3 4.3 3.7 18.4% 19.4% n/a n/a JPFA BUY 0.2 905 1.1 9.7 42.5 1068 1150 27.1 12.1 10.8 1.5 1.3 12.1% 11.7% 8.5 7.3 MAIN HOLD 0.1 1415 (0.4) 8.8 (7.2) 1628 1500 6.0 18.6 10.6 1.5 1.3 8.0% 12.6% n/a n/a Other Sectors AKRA HOLD 0.5 5900 (2.5) (12.6) (17.8) 7562 7000 18.6 19.2 16.6 3.3 2.9 17.4% 17.7% 14.0 11.3 Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, INCO report in USD. www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 6
Regional Indices 1D Change Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World 2.03 1,643 0.12 (0.05) (1.94) 0.67 10.39 (1.18) (8.44) 1,814 1,460 U.S. (S&P) 6.51 2,057 0.32 (0.30) (0.40) 0.47 11.06 0.65 (2.79) 2,135 1,810 U.S. (DOW) 79.92 17,741 0.45 (0.06) (0.19) 0.93 10.78 1.81 (2.48) 18,351 15,370 Europe (3.51) 2,937 (0.12) (1.26) (3.02) 0.85 7.32 (10.12) (19.53) 3,714 2,673 Emerging Market (4.12) 805 (0.51) (1.01) (3.62) (1.41) 10.34 1.41 (22.18) 1,046 687 FTSE 100 8.45 6,126 0.14 (0.97) (3.11) (1.27) 8.76 (1.87) n/a 7,084 5,500 CAC 40 (18.22) 4,301 (0.42) (1.62) (2.88) (0.04) 7.60 (7.24) (15.50) 5,218 3,892 Dax 18.09 9,870 0.18 (0.57) (1.68) 2.57 11.16 (8.13) (15.71) 11,920 8,699 Indonesia 10.33 4,823 0.21 (0.33) (0.48) (0.73) 0.49 5.00 (6.54) 5,347 4,034 Japan 149.70 16,256 0.93 (2.46) (6.32) 2.75 1.06 (14.59) (16.11) 20,953 14,866 Australia 20.05 5,312 0.38 0.78 1.32 7.58 9.93 0.31 (5.72) 5,803 4,707 Korea (2.09) 1,975 (0.11) (0.18) (1.31) 0.61 2.96 0.68 (7.39) 2,149 1,801 Singapore (37.01) 2,731 (1.34) (2.86) (4.59) (2.76) 4.10 (5.27) (20.89) 3,473 2,528 Malaysia 4.27 1,649 0.26 (0.13) (1.52) (4.02) (0.79) (2.55) (8.76) 1,824 1,504 Hong Kong (339.95) 20,110 (1.66) (2.74) (5.98) (1.28) 4.26 (8.23) (27.08) 28,525 18,279 China (84.59) 2,913 (2.82) (2.65) (1.10) (2.40) 5.42 (17.69) (30.73) 5,178 2,638 Taiwan (21.53) 8,146 (0.26) (1.78) (3.86) (4.63) 1.03 (2.30) (15.95) 9,797 7,203 Thailand (7.17) 1,391 (0.51) (0.66) (1.98) 1.25 6.46 7.97 (8.91) 1,536 1,221 Philipines (7.88) 6,992 (0.11) (0.78) (2.34) (3.52) 5.34 0.57 (9.94) 7,923 6,084 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) 0.08 5.00 0.24 (0.23) (22.51) (34.19) (12.99) 8.26 4.89 Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a 107.54 n/a 2.87 1.52 1.52 (3.60) 110.77 100.24 Inflation Rate (%) n/a (0.45) n/a (336.84) (188.24) (146.88) (225.00) 0.96 (0.45) US Fed Rate (%) 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.50 0.25 Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % 0.02 7.78 1.79 2.07 (3.02) (11.01) (2.22) 9.90 7.40 Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia 45.00 13240 (0.34) (0.32) (0.38) (0.54) 4.14 4.14 (1.94) 14,736 12,978 Japan 0.33 107.45 (0.31) (0.41) (0.97) 0.46 11.88 11.88 11.75 125.86 105.55 UK (0.00) 1.44 (0.06) (0.53) (1.73) 1.26 (2.15) (2.15) (7.49) 1.59 1.38 Euro (0.00) 1.14 (0.16) (0.88) (1.28) (0.19) 4.82 4.82 2.07 1.17 1.05 China (0.01) 6.50 0.22 (0.02) (0.28) (0.23) (0.04) (0.04) (4.54) 6.60 6.19 Commodities Indicators 1D Change Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil 0.76 46.13 1.68 3.38 0.65 9.99 52.14 23.74 (29.45) 68.17 27.10 CPO (1.00) 2,628.00 (0.04) 3.51 1.04 (3.45) 1.86 5.75 20.38 2,793.00 1,863.00 Rubber (3.00) 701.50 (0.43) (0.92) (1.41) 2.78 30.03 30.03 4.94 728.50 506.50 Coal (0.15) 50.65 (0.30) (0.30) (0.20) 1.20 (1.84) 0.10 (18.70) 62.30 48.80 Iron Ore (1.80) 63.40 (2.76) (3.65) 0.79 18.73 51.31 46.08 9.69 132.60 37.50 Tin 75.00 17,476.00 0.43 1.00 1.95 5.77 14.96 19.77 8.08 17,625.00 13,223.80 Nickel 45.00 9,065.00 0.50 (4.78) (2.47) 5.53 11.09 2.78 (35.11) 14,520.00 7,550.00 Copper 25.00 4,810.00 0.52 (2.24) (2.67) 0.50 3.89 2.23 (24.73) 6,459.00 4,318.00 Gold (6.60) 1,287.40 (0.51) 1.02 (0.65) 3.61 7.40 21.43 8.28 1,306.00 1,046.20 Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 6
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research Strategy, Banking, Consumer +6221 2854 8148 andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Senior Analyst Auto, Heavy Equipment, Property, Cigarette, Media, Aviation, Healthcare +6221 2854 8144 akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Analyst Mining, Plantation +6221 2854 8339 sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id Adrianus Bias Prasuryo Senior Analyst Cement,Construction, Utility +6221 2854 8392 adrianus.bias@samuel.co.id Marlene Tanumihardja Analyst Retail, Poultry, Consumer, Small Cap +6221 2854 8387 marlene@samuel.co.id Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate +6221 2854 8338 adde.kurniawan@samuel.co.id Rangga Cipta Economist +6221 2854 8396 rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Indices, Equities, Commodities, Currencies, Fixed Income +6221 2854 8382 makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id Team Kelvin Long Director of Equities +6221 2854 8150 kelvin.long@samuel.co.id Evelyn Satyono Head of Institutional +6221 2854 8148 evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id Lucia Irawati Head of Retail +6221 2854 8173 lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id Yulianah Senior Institutional Sales +6221 2854 8146 yulianah@samuel.co.id Ronny Ardianto Institutional +6221 2854 8399 ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id Ferry Khusaeri +6221 2854 8304 ferry.khusaeri@samuel.co.id Indra S. Affandi Senior Institutional Sales +6221 2854 8334 indra.siswandi@samuel.co.id Muhammad Isfandi Institutional +6221 2854 8329 muhammad.isfandi@samuel.co.id Peter Hamsja +6221 2854 8325 peter@samuel.co.id Jovita Widjaja +6221 2854 8314 jovita.widjaja@samuel.co.id Clarice Wijana Institutional +6221 2854 8395 clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id Iwan Setiadi +6221 2854 8313 iwan.setiadi@samuel.co.id James Wihardja +6221 2854 8397 james.wihardja@samuel.co.id Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head Of Marketing OLT +6221 2854 8372 nugroho@samuel.co.id Rina Lestari SPV Customer Service +6221 2854 8180 rina.lestari@samuel.co.id www.samuel.co.id Page 6 of 6