z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Data tingkat upah AS yang dirilis optimis mampu meredam sentimen negatif akibat rilis pesimis data payrolls dan unemployment rate. Kondisi ini mampu mendukung reli pada saham, dolar dan juga yield Treasury AS pada hari Jumat. Meskipun data non-farm payrolls dirilis lebih pesimis, namun rebound pada tingkat upah (average earnings) menunjukan berkelanjutannya momentum pasar tenaga kerja yang menentukan perekonomian untuk pertumbuhan kuat dan suku bunga lebih lanjut meningkat dari Federal Reserve tahun ini. Penguatan dolar telah menekan harga komoditas termasuk emas, namun minyak berhasil naik didukung meningkatnya aksi beli jelang akhir pekan. Indeks Dow Jones hanya terpaut 1 poin untuk mencapai level psikologi 20.000 yang untuk pertama kalinya. Pekan ini investor akan cermati sejumlah data ekonomi dari AS dan Cina serta konferensi pers dari presiden terbaru AS Donald Trump untuk melihat prospek hubungan kedua negara ekonomi raksasa dunia tersebut. Trump yang akan mulai berkantor pada 20 Januari, akan melakukan konferensi pers pada hari Rabu. Investor akan mencermati setiap kemungkinan kebijakan ekonomi terhadap Cina dan juga domestik. Senin, 09 Januari 2017 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV CN Foreign Direct Investment YoY CNY Dec 0.80% 3.90% CN M2 Money Supply YY* Dec 11.5% 11.4% CN New Yuan Loans* Dec 700b 794.6b CN Outstanding Loan Growth* Dec 13.1% 13.1% 5:30 AU AiG Perf of Construction Index Dec -- 46.6 7:30 AU Building Approvals MoM Nov 4.60% -12.60% 7:30 AU Building Approvals YoY Nov -5.30% -24.90% 12:30 AU Foreign Reserves Dec -- A$69.9b 14:00 DE Industrial Production SA MoM Nov 0.60% 0.30% 14:00 DE Industrial Production WDA YoY Nov -- 1.20% 14:00 DE Trade Balance Nov 21.2b 20.5b 14:00 DE Current Account Balance Nov -- 18.4b 14:00 DE Exports SA MoM Nov 0.50% 0.50% 14:00 DE Imports SA MoM Nov 0.20% 1.30% 15:15 CH Retail Sales Real YoY Nov -- -0.50% 15:30 GB Halifax House Prices MoM Dec 0.20% 0.20% 15:30 GB Halifax House Price 3Mths/Year Dec 5.80% 6.00% 16:30 EZ Sentix Investor Confidence Jan 12.5 10 17:00 EZ Unemployment Rate Nov 9.80% 9.80% 21:00 US Fed's Roesengren Speaks in Hartford, Connecticut 21:50 GB Bank of England Bond Buying Operation Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/USD Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Reversal kembali uji lagi area 1.0500 setelah reli gagal berlanjut Support berikutnya di 1.0339 Jan 06 1.0605 1.0621 1.0525 96 1.0530 70 1.0600 Jan 05 1.0495 1.0615 1.0481 134 1.0600 115 1.0485 Jan 04 1.0420 1.0499 1.0390 109 1.0485 80 1.0405 Jan 03 1.0465 1.0490 1.0342 148 1.0405 125 1.0530 1.0621 1.0342 1.0621 1.0342 1.0796 1.0353 1.0621 1.0342 (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Dec) (20/Dec) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.0872 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0766 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0678 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0651 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0478 Low Jan 05 1.0448 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.0387 Low Jan 04 1.0350 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 1.0570 STOP LOSS 1.0660 1.0495 1.0440
Page 3 of 12 USD/JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Rebound terjadi setelah mampu bertahan di atas area support 114.80 Rebound hadapi area resistance di 118.66 Jan 06 115.35 117.18 115.08 210 116.95 155 115.40 Jan 05 117.15 117.43 115.24 219 115.40 185 117.25 Jan 04 117.65 118.17 117.06 111 117.25 40 117.65 Jan 03 117.35 118.60 117.23 137 117.65 90 116.75 118.60 115.08 118.60 115.08 118.66 112.89 118.60 115.08 (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (15/Dec) (05/Dec) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) ANALYSIS & 120.03 High 03/Feb/2016 118.66 High 15/Dec/2016 118.17 High 04/Jan/2017 117.43 High 05/Jan/2017 115.04 Low 06/Jan/2017 114.71 Low 13/Dec/2016 113.96 Low 09/Dec/2016 112.84 Low 05/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 116.30 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 115.00 117.50 118.00
Page 4 of 12 GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Reversal tajam dekati area support krusial di 1.2197 Formasi consecutive higher lows gagal Short-term resistance di sekitar 1.2430 Jan 06 1.2420 1.2430 1.2261 169 1.2285 135 1.2420 Jan 05 1.2320 1.2431 1.2270 161 1.2420 100 1.2320 Jan 04 1.2245 1.2351 1.2221 130 1.2320 85 1.2235 Jan 03 1.2280 1.2306 1.2200 106 1.2235 90 1.2325 1.2431 1.2200 1.2431 1.2200 1.2774 1.2200 1.2431 1.2200 (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Dec) (28/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.2727 High 13/Dec/2016 (Reaction high) 1.2568 High 15/Dec/2016 1.2509 Reaction high (1-H chart) 1.2431 High 05/Jan/2017 (Reaction high) 1.2197 Low 28/Dec/2016 1.2141 Low 31/Oct/2016 1.2112 Low 28/Oct/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2081 Low 25/Oct2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 1.2360 STOP LOSS 1.2450 1.2230 1.2185
Page 5 of 12 USD/CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Rebound berkembang setelah mampu bertahan di atas area support 1.0050 Rebound hadapi area resistance krusial di 1.0200 Jan 06 1.0100 1.0182 1.0096 86 1.0170 75 1.0095 Jan 05 1.0210 1.0224 1.0088 136 1.0095 120 1.0215 Jan 04 1.0260 1.0291 1.0203 88 1.0215 55 1.0270 Jan 03 1.0235 1.0335 1.0211 124 1.0270 95 1.0175 1.0335 1.0088 1.0335 1.0088 1.0344 1.0022 1.0335 1.0088 (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (15/Dec) (08/Dec) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.0452 High 27/Aug/2016 (Weekly) 1.0344 High 15/Dec/2016 1.0291 High 04/Jan/2017 1.0220 Reaction high (4-H chart) 1.0061 Low 30/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) 1.0018 Low 08/Dec/2016 0.9952 Reaction low (4-H chart) 0.9826 Reaction low (4-H chart) BUY 1.0120 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.0040 1.0210 1.0245
Page 6 of 12 AUD/USD Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Area resistance di sekitar 0.7370 masih efektif Koreksi hadapi area support di 0.7150 0.7140 Jan 06 0.7340 0.7355 0.7289 66 0.7305 40 0.7345 Jan 05 0.7285 0.7356 0.7273 83 0.7345 65 0.7280 Jan 04 0.7230 0.7284 0.7214 70 0.7280 60 0.7220 Jan 03 0.7200 0.7241 0.7182 59 0.7220 5 0.7215 0.7356 0.7182 0.7356 0.7182 0.7524 0.7161 0.7356 0.7182 (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (14/Dec) (23/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7571 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7524 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7430 High Dec 15 0.7370 Pivot line (1-D chart) 0.7206 Low Jan 04 0.7160 Low 02/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) 0.7142 Low 24/May/2016 (Bottom) 0.7105 Low 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction low) BUY ----- SELL 0.7315 STOP LOSS 0.7390 0.7225 0.7175
Page 7 of 12 NZD/USD Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Reversal berkembang, uji area support di 0.6950 Koreksi berikutnya hadapi area support di 0.6880 0.6860 Jan 06 0.7020 0.7043 0.6955 88 0.6965 60 0.7025 Jan 05 0.6970 0.7036 0.6954 82 0.7025 65 0.6960 Jan 04 0.6920 0.6966 0.6891 75 0.6960 50 0.6910 Jan 03 0.6930 0.6974 0.6886 88 0.6910 35 0.6945 0.7043 0.6886 0.7043 0.6886 0.7238 0.6863 0.7043 0.6886 (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (14/Dec) (23/Dec) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7307 High 10/Nov/2016 0.7238 High 14/Dec/2016 (Peak) 0.7122 High 15/Dec/2016 0.7054 High 16/Dec/2016 0.6859 Low 23/Dec/2016 (Bottom) 0.6798 Low 03/Jun/2016 0.6756 Low 01/Jun/2016 0.6674 Low 30/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY ----- SELL 0.6980 STOP LOSS 0.7065 0.6895 0.6810
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Rebound berkembang setelah mampu bertahan di atas area trendline support Rebound hadapi area trendline resistance di sekitar 123.70 Resistance krusial di 124.09 Jan 06 122.25 123.43 122.14 129 123.20 85 122.35 Jan 05 122.95 123.12 122.04 108 122.35 65 123.00 Jan 04 122.55 123.13 122.42 71 123.00 55 122.45 Jan 03 122.80 123.32 122.28 104 122.45 55 123.00 123.43 122.04 123.43 122.04 124.09 118.77 123.43 122.04 (06/Jan) (05/Jan) (06/Jan) (05/Jan) (15/Dec) (05/Dec) (06/Jan) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 124.62 High 12/May/2016 (Peak) 124.20 High 31/May/2016 (Reaction high) 124.09 High 15/Dec/2016 (Peak level) 123.84 High 30/Dec/2016 (Reaction high) 121.98 Low 05/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) 121.55 Low 29/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) 121.17 Reaction low (2-H chart) 120.86 Low 12/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 122.80 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 121.75 123.65 124.10
Page 9 of 12 USD/CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi terbatas dengan area trendline support masih utuh Pola ascending triangle masih dukung sinyal bullish WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.3436 1.3235 1.3460 1.3174 1.3460 1.3174 1.3598 1.3078 1.3460 1.3174 (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (28/Dec) (14/Dec) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.3734 High 25/Feb/2016 1.3598 High 28/Dec/2016 1.3460 High 03/Jan/2017 1.3312 High 05/Jan/2017 1.3174 Low 06/Jan/2017 1.3078 Low 14/Dec/2016 (Bottom) 1.2996 Low 22/Sep/2016 1.2906 Low 09/Sep/2016 BUY 1.3215 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.3150 1.3330 1.3425
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/USD) Koreksi berkembang setelah reli tertahan di area 1182 (23.6% Fibo. Retracement of wave 1374.91 1122.35)+ Koreksi hadapi area support di 1145 1122 AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Jan 06 1181.00 1181.40 1171.06 10.34 1172.50 7.50 1180.00 1178.00 1175.85 Jan 05 1166.00 1184.90 1162.84 22.06 1180.00 16.00 1164.00 1173.05 1176.70 Jan 04 1157.00 1167.83 1156.36 11.47 1164.00 5.50 1158.50 1165.90 1164.25 Jan 03 1150.00 1163.52 1146.31 17.21 1158.50 7.50 1151.00 1148.65 1151.00 1184.90 1146.31 1184.90 1146.31 1187.71 1123.04 1184.90 1146.31 (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Dec) (15/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1233.07 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 1221.06 High 22/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 1197.54 High 28/Nov/2016 1184.90 High 05/Jan/2017 1145.68 Low 03/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) 1131.35 Low 27/Dec/2016 1122.35 Low 15/Dec/2016 (Bottom) 1108.50 Low 29/Jan/2016 (Reaction low) BUY ----- SELL 1178.00 STOP LOSS 1193.00 1165.70 1157.60
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/USD) Reli terhambat dengan formasi consecutive higher lows gagal berlanjut. RSI mulai turun dari zona overbought Support krusial di sekitar 15.75 Sedangkan short-term resistance di sekitar 17.25 Jan 06 16.56 16.65 16.26 0.39 16.46 0.10 16.56 Jan 05 16.42 16.69 16.40 0.29 16.56 0.15 16.41 Jan 04 16.27 16.50 16.24 0.26 16.41 0.13 16.28 Jan 03 15.92 16.47 15.88 0.59 16.28 0.38 15.91 16.69 15.88 16.69 15.88 17.21 15.61 16.69 15.88 (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (07/Dec) (20/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 18.83 High 11/Nov/2016 17.50 High 14/Nov/2016 17.25 Pivot line (1-D chart) 16.95 High 15/Dec/2016 16.23 Low 04/Jan/2017 15.87 Low 03/Jan/2017 15.75 Pivot line 15.59 Low 20/Dec/2016 (Bottom) BUY ----- SELL 16.60 STOP LOSS 17.00 16.35 16.15
Page 12 of 12 CLG7/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Jan. 2017 - Reuters) Reli berlanjut hadapi resistance di 54.50 Strong resistance saat ini di 55.24 Short-term support di 52.00 Jan 06 53.72 54.28 53.31 0.97 53.67 0.09 53.76 Jan 05 53.36 54.10 52.79 1.31 53.76 0.42 53.34 Jan 04 52.47 53.38 52.14 1.24 53.34 0.88 52.46 Jan 03 54.18 55.22 52.14 3.08 52.46 1.42 53.88 55.22 52.14 55.22 52.14 54.49 48.98 55.22 52.14 (03/Jan) (03/Jan) (03/Jan) (03/Jan) (12/Dec) (01/Dec) (03/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 57.95 High 02/Jul/2015 56.79 High 06/Jul/2015 55.24 High 03/Jan/2017 54.50 Pivot line 52.79 Low 05/Jan/2017 52.00 Horizontal support 50.50 Low 16/Dec/2016 49.61 Low 08/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 53.45 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 52.50 54.10 54.80