Company Update Pakuwon Jati Bloomberg: PWON.IJ Reuters: PWON.JK Samuel Research 08 Agustus 2017 Target Price Rp 767 Last Price Rp 690 Potential Upside 11.2% JCI Index 5,771 Share isued (mn) 48.16 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 33.47 52-Weeks High/Low 765 / 535 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 29.56 Free Float 30.2 Nominal Value Rp 25 Book value/share 17 Rp 214 Relative to JCI Chart 120 110 100 90 BUY (Maintain) JCI Company Background Shareholder Structure PWON 80 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk memiliki, mengembangkan dan mengoperasikan shopping centers, business complexes, real estate, industrial estate dan hotels. PT Pakuwon Arthaniaga 69.7% Vanguard Group 1.8% Others 28.5% Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA +62 21 2854 8144 akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id Better than its peers Kami masih menyukai PWON, selain kinerja 1H17 yang masih seseuai dengan ekspektasi, PWON juga masih akan menjadi penerima benefit kontinuitas permintaan ruang sewa. Progress proyek yang inline serta angka marketing sales yang dilaporkan jauh lebih baik dari peersnya menjadi alasan lain SSI masih merekomendasikan PWON. Kami menaikan TP +8.05% menjadi Rp767/saham dengan menaikan asumsi harga per sqm dari aset-aset perusaaan (sesuai dengan update terakhir dari PWON). Tetap BUY untuk PWON dengan TP NAV (Disc 50%) sebesar Rp767/saham (18.6xP/E17E, 3.6xPBV17E). 1H17 yang lebih baik dari peers. Pendapatan dan laba di 2Q17 masingmasing bertumbuh +14.1%QoQ, +31.6%YoY dan +58.9%QoQ, +56.7%YoY, sementara untuk 1H17 naik +20.9%YoY dan +0.5%YoY. Di periode yang sama pendapatan +6.6% lebih tinggi dari 2Q17E SSI dan laba melampaui +7.3% dari angka proyeksi kami. Per 1H17, laba tercatat dibawah ekspektasi hanya mencapai 89.47%, sedangkan top line 5.25% diatas angka 1H17E SSI. Kemudahan capaian paruh akhir tahun. Di 2H17, PWON akan lebih mudah mencapai proyeksi FY17E SSI atau hanya 47.2% dibandingkan dengan rata-rata paruh akhir tahun selama lima tahun terakhir sebesar 49.82%. Di sisi lain, laba perlu mencapai 54.5% dari FY17E kami vs rata-rata 47.2%. Pengakuan pendapatan dari backlog PWON dan nilai recurring yang kami perkirakan masih akan stabil akan membantu PWON didalam mencapai laba FY17E SSI dan konsensus. Marketing sales yang inline. Optimisme kami pada PWON juga didukung oleh pencapaian nilai marketing sales yang lebih baik dari peersnya. Ditengah perbaikan sektor yang belum terlihat, pertumbuhan pre sales +5.1%YoY di 1H17 merupakan indikasi daya tahan perusahaan sekaligus cerminan bargaining position PWON terhadap sektor properti. Maintain BUY. Kami menaikan target harga melalui perubahan asumsi harga per m2 untuk aset-aset PWON (update data 1H17). Perbaikan sektor yang kami perkirakan baru akan terlihat stabil tahun depan, menjadikan PWON lebih menarik dibandingkan dengan peersnya yang sangat bergantung pada nilai pre-sales serta rendahnya porsi recurring income. Resiko terletak pada (1) pencapaian pre sales rendah (2) porsi recuring income turun tajam (3) perbaikan sektor makin tidak pasti dan mendorong pelemahan daya beli (4) tertundanya ekspansi dan eksekusi proyek. PWON - Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp690 per share) Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 4,625 4,841 5,587 6,532 EBITDA 2,535 2,551 2,871 3,244 Net Profit 1,262 1,671 1,980 2,340 EPS (Rp) 26 35 41 49 DPS (Rp) 11 5 7 9 BV per Share (Rp) 150 180 214 254 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.1 14.1 12.8 11.2 P/E Ratio (x) 26.3 19.9 16.8 14.2 P/BV Ratio (x) 4.6 3.8 3.2 2.7 www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 5
Figure 1. PWON 1H17 Result Rpbn 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 QoQ YoY 6M16 6M17 YoY Sales 1,195 1,378 1,573 14.1 31.6 2,441 2,951 20.9 Cost Of Sales (579) (591) (689) 16.6 19.1 (1,075) (1,280) 19.1 Gross Profit 617 787 884 12.3 43.3 1,366 1,671 22.3 Operating Expense (115) (120) (119) (1.4) 3.3 (212) (239) 12.8 Operating Profit 502 666 765 14.8 52.5 1,154 1,432 24.1 Net Interest expense (51) (67) (29) (56.9) (43.3) (114) (96) (15.2) Interest Income 26 (99) 162 (264.2) 512.9 51 63 23.5 Interest expense (78) 31 (191) (712.1) 145.9 (165) (160) (3.2) Forex loss 14 20 (0) (101.1) (101.6) 99 20 (80.3) Pre-tax Income 371 380 605 59.0 62.8 980 985 0.5 Tax (15) (6) (5) (21.5) (66.0) (18) (11) (37.1) NI owners company 353 348 553 58.9 56.7 896 901 0.5 EPS 7.3 7.2 11.5 58.9 56.7 19 19 0.5 Margin Gross margin 51.59 57.11 56.20 (0.91) 4.60 55.96 56.62 0.67 Operating margin 41.97 48.37 48.64 0.28 6.68 47.27 48.52 1.25 Net margin 29.51 25.25 35.14 9.89 5.62 39.41 33.00 (6.41) Source: Company, SSI research Figure 2. PWON and Peers Stock Rec Mkt Cap Last price YTD Chg P Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE (Rp bn) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E BSDE BUY 34,259 1,780 1.4 2,287 2,350 32.0 15.9 13.7 1.4 1.2 8.7% 8.5% PWON BUY 33,230 690 22.1 716 710 2.9 16.8 14.1 3.2 2.7 19.2% 19.3% ASRI HOLD 6,877 350 (0.6) 432 390 11.4 10.3 9.7 0.9 0.8 8.8% 8.7% SMRA HOLD 14,499 1,005 (24.2) 1,380 1,307 30.0 43.7 33.5 1.7 1.6 4.0% 4.8% SSIA BUY 3,200 680 56.7 874 750 10.3 15.1 12.6 1.0 0.9 6.6% 7.5% CTRA BUY 19,581 1,055 (21.0) 1,584 1,580 49.8 12.3 10.2 1.3 1.1 10.3% 11.1% DMAS BUY 9,832 204 (11.3) 294 300 47.1 11.5 9.3 1.1 1.0 9.7% 10.8% KIJA BUY 6,539 314 8.4 413 450 43.3 13.7 12.1 1.1 1.0 7.8% 8.1% Average 17.4 14.4 1.5 1.3 9.4% 9.8% Source: Bloomberg, Respective Companies, SSI research Figure 3. PWON P/E Band 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Aug-12 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PE - Forward ST dev +2 ST dev -2 Source: Bloomberg, SSI research www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5
Figure 4. PWON NAV Valuation ASSETS Source: Bloomberg, SSI research Area (ha) Price/sqm (Rp '000) Market Value ( Rp bn) NAV (Rp bn) NAV/Share Landbanks Kota Kasablanka 7 38,000 2,698 2,698 56 Gandaria City 3 18,000 522 522 11 Central Surabaya - Tunjungan City 3 22,000 704 704 15 East SBY - Pakuwon City Townshi 232 15,500 35,976 35,976 747 East SBY - Outside Pakuwon City 22 15,500 3,333 3,333 69 West SBY - Grand Pakuwon Town 155 11,000 17,028 17,028 354 West SBY - Pakuwon Mall 6.0 11,000 660 660 14 West SBY - Outside Grand Pakuw 6.9 11,000 759 759 16 TB Simatupang 4.5 24,000 1,080 1,080 22 Daan Mogot 11.0 10,000 1,100 1,100 23 Bekasi 2.7 2,000 54 54 1 Total land 453 63,913 1,327 Discount to NAV 50% 31,957 664 NAV after tax 5% 30,359 630 Development 4,920 102 Recurring 5,109 106 Subtotal 40,388 839 Total Shares (in mn) 48,160 Net cash (3,443) (71) Net asset value 36,946 767 Target price 767 Closing 08/07/17 700 Upside potential 10% www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5
Key financial figures Profit and Loss Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 4,625 4,841 5,587 6,532 Net income 1,262 1,671 1,980 2,340 COGS 1,957 2,088 2,448 2,928 Depreciation & amort. 271 333 789 437 Gross profit 2,669 2,754 3,139 3,604 Working Capital (480) 1,156 (963) 691 Gross margin (%) 57.7 56.9 56.2 55.2 Operating CF 1,052 3,160 1,806 3,467 Operating profit 2,265 2,260 2,564 2,925 Net - Capital expenditu (2,208) (3,147) (2,225) (2,908) Operating margin (%) 49.0 46.7 45.9 44.8 Others 5 (127) 63 (32) EBITDA 2,535 2,551 2,871 3,244 Investing CF (2,203) (3,274) (2,162) (2,940) EBITDA margin (%) 54.8 52.7 51.4 49.7 Dividend (525) (263) (349) (413) Other inc (exp) (839) (528) (512) (500) Others 782 527 593 111 Pre-tax profit 1,425 1,732 2,051 2,426 Financing CF 257 264 245 (302) Income tax - net (25) 48 55 62 Net - Cash flow (894) 149 (111) 225 Net profit - owners 1,262 1,671 1,980 2,340 Cash at beginning 3,176 2,283 2,432 2,321 Net profit margin (%) 27.3 34.5 35.4 35.8 Cash at ending 2,283 2,432 2,321 2,547 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E Cash & ST Invest 2,283 2,432 2,321 2,547 ROE (%) 13.3 15.2 15.5 15.8 Receivables 302 237 274 320 ROA (%) 6.7 8.1 8.7 9.3 Inventories 2,254 2,860 3,281 3,814 Revenue Growth (%) 19.4 4.7 15.4 16.9 Others 570 597 722 844 EBITDA Growth (%) 2.6 0.6 12.5 13.0 Total current assets 5,409 6,127 6,598 7,524 EPS Growth (%) -49.8 32.4 18.5 18.2 Net fixed assets 1,457 1,700 1,726 1,807 Interest Coverage (x) 7.9 6.8 8.1 10.1 Other assets 11,912 12,848 14,351 15,952 Debt to Equity (%) 51.9 47.6 45.2 38.9 Total assets 18,778 20,674 22,676 25,283 Net gearing (%) 27.8 25.5 27.0 21.7 Payables 198 212 223 275 ST. debt & curr. mat 536 769 846 931 Major Assumption Other cur liab 3,689 3,637 3,403 3,920 Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E LT. debt 4,372 4,471 4,918 4,824 Recurring income 2,317 2,553 2,891 3,380 Other long term liabiliti 528 566 531 541 Non recurring 2,308 2,288 2,696 3,152 Total liabilities 9,323 9,654 9,920 10,492 USD/IDR (AvG) 13,500 13,253 13,200 12,800 Total equity 9,455 11,020 12,755 14,791 USD/IDR (EoP) 14,000 13,000 12,900 12,600 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 5
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148 Rangga Cipta Economist rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396 Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392 Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387 Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339 Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338 Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395 Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325 Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150 Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146 Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173 Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372 Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371 Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 5