z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Harga minyak jatuh di hari Senin oleh kekhawatiran bahwa rekor pertumbuhan produksi minyak Irak dan meningkatnya produksi minyak AS bisa merusak upaya OPEC untuk mengurangi pasokan, sementara sterling terkoreksi oleh komentar Perdana Menteri Inggris Theresa May yang mengatakan akan mencoba jalan keluar yang lebih agresif terkait cara keluar dari Uni Eropa jika hal tersebut memang diperlukan. Sterling bergerak tajam, merosot hampir 1% terhadap dolar ke level terendah lebih dari 2 bulan usai pernyataan May. Turunnya harga minyak telah menekan saham energi di Wall Street, memicu Dow Jones menjauhi level puncaknya yang hampir sentuh level 20.000. Pekan ini investor akan cermati sejumlah data ekonomi dari AS dan Cina serta konferensi pers dari presiden terbaru AS Donald Trump untuk melihat prospek hubungan kedua negara ekonomi raksasa dunia tersebut. Trump yang akan mulai berkantor pada 20 Januari, akan melakukan konferensi pers pada hari Rabu. Investor akan mencermati setiap kemungkinan kebijakan ekonomi terhadap Cina dan juga domestik. Selasa, 10 Januari 2017 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 07:01 GB BRC Retail Sales YY Dec N/A 0.6% 07:30 AU Retail Sales MM Nov 0.4% 0.5% 08:30 CN CPI YY Dec 2.3% 2.3% 08:30 CN CPI MM Dec 0.3% 0.1% 12:00 JP Consumer Confidence Index Dec N/A 40.9 13:45 CH Unemployment Rate Dec N/A 3.3% 20:15 CA Housing Starts Dec 195.0k 184.0k 20:30 CA Building Permits MM Nov -5.0% 8.7% 21:50 GB Bank of England Bond Buying Operation 22:00 US Wholesale Inventories Rev MM Nov 0.9% 0.9% N/A EZ Iran, International Negotiators Meet in Vienna Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 1.1365 1.1326 1.1278 1.1234 1.1299 25/08/2016-16/01/2017 (JAK) Price 1,12 1,11 1.0872 1,1 Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 09/01/2017; 58,790 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 09/01/2017; 1,0537; 1,0582; 1,0508; 1,0571 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 09/01/2017; 1,0516 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 09/01/2017; 1,0568 @her1en 1.0350 1.0669 1.0339 1,09 1,08 1,07 1,06 1,05 1,04 1,03 Reversal kembali uji lagi area 1.0500 setelah reli gagal berlanjut Tekanan ikuti bearish trend channel (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 09/01/2017; 0,0186 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Desember 2016 Januari 2017 Jan 09 1.0530 1.0582 1.0511 71 1.0565 35 1.0530 Jan 06 1.0605 1.0621 1.0525 96 1.0530 70 1.0600 Jan 05 1.0495 1.0615 1.0481 134 1.0600 115 1.0485 Jan 04 1.0420 1.0499 1.0390 109 1.0485 80 1.0405 Jan 03 1.0465 1.0490 1.0342 148 1.0405 125 1.0530 1.0582 1.0511 1.0621 1.0342 1.0796 1.0353 1.0621 1.0342 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Dec) (20/Dec) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.0872 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0766 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0678 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0651 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0508 Low Jan 09 1.0478 Low Jan 05 1.0448 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.0387 Low Jan 04 BUY ----- SELL 1.0570 STOP LOSS 1.0660 1.0495 1.0440
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Pola Flag masih efektif Lowerline area di sekitar 115.30 Upperline area di sekitar 117.25 Crucial resistance di sekitar 118.66 (Research @ErwinRiset) Jan 09 117.20 117.52 115.97 155 116.05 90 116.95 Jan 06 115.35 117.18 115.08 210 116.95 155 115.40 Jan 05 117.15 117.43 115.24 219 115.40 185 117.25 Jan 04 117.65 118.17 117.06 111 117.25 40 117.65 Jan 03 117.35 118.60 117.23 137 117.65 90 116.75 117.52 115.97 118.60 115.08 118.66 112.89 118.60 115.08 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (15/Dec) (05/Dec) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) ANALYSIS & 120.03 High 03/Feb/2016 118.66 High 15/Dec/2016 118.17 High 04/Jan/2017 117.52 High 09/Jan/2017 115.04 Low 06/Jan/2017 114.71 Low 13/Dec/2016 113.96 Low 09/Dec/2016 112.84 Low 05/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 115.50 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 114.85 116.90 117.70
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Area support krusial di 1.2197 pecah setelah koreksi hit low 1.2122 Koreksi hadapi support penting di 1.2080 (Research @ErwinRiset) Jan 09 1.2260 1.2271 1.2126 145 1.2160 125 1.2285 Jan 06 1.2420 1.2430 1.2261 169 1.2285 135 1.2420 Jan 05 1.2320 1.2431 1.2270 161 1.2420 100 1.2320 Jan 04 1.2245 1.2351 1.2221 130 1.2320 85 1.2235 Jan 03 1.2280 1.2306 1.2200 106 1.2235 90 1.2325 1.2271 1.2126 1.2431 1.2126 1.2774 1.2200 1.2431 1.2126 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (05/Jan) (09/Jan) (06/Dec) (28/Dec) (05/Jan) (09/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.2568 High 15/Dec/2016 1.2509 Reaction high (1-H chart) 1.2431 High 05/Jan/2017 (Reaction high) 1.2271 High 09/Jan/2017 1.2112 Low 28/Oct/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2081 Low 25/Oct/2016 (Bottom) 1.1450 Low 07/Oct/2016 (Bottom) 1.1060 Low 22/Mar/1985 BUY ---- SELL 1.2190 STOP LOSS 1.2290 1.2105 1.2040
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Area resistance krusial di 1.0200 sedang diuji Pola symmetrical triangle masih efektif Trendline support di sekitar 1.0110 (Research @ErwinRiset) Jan 09 1.0175 1.0197 1.0143 54 1.0150 20 1.0170 Jan 06 1.0100 1.0182 1.0096 86 1.0170 75 1.0095 Jan 05 1.0210 1.0224 1.0088 136 1.0095 120 1.0215 Jan 04 1.0260 1.0291 1.0203 88 1.0215 55 1.0270 Jan 03 1.0235 1.0335 1.0211 124 1.0270 95 1.0175 1.0197 1.0143 1.0335 1.0088 1.0344 1.0022 1.0335 1.0088 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) (15/Dec) (08/Dec) (03/Jan) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.0452 High 27/Aug/2016 (Weekly) 1.0344 High 15/Dec/2016 1.0291 High 04/Jan/2017 1.0220 Reaction high (4-H chart) 1.0061 Low 30/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) 1.0018 Low 08/Dec/2016 0.9952 Reaction low (4-H chart) 0.9826 Reaction low (4-H chart) BUY 1.0125 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.0040 1.0210 1.0245
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 734 0.7777 0.7571 EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 09/01/2017; 0,7290 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 09/01/2017; 0,7351 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 09/01/2017; 0,7292; 0,7373; 0,7284; 0,7353 0.7524 @her1en 0.7152 19/10/2016-12/01/2017 (JAK) 0.7373 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 09/01/2017; 65,119 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 09/01/2017; 0,0094 Value 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Desember 2016 Januari 2017 Price 0,77 0,765 0,76 0,755 0,75 0,745 0,74 0,735 0,73 0,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 Pola naik dalam harian Break area trend channel dibawahnya Jauhi level terendah sebelumnya 0.7266 (Research @her1en) Jan 09 0.7300 0.7373 0.7288 85 0.7350 45 0.7305 Jan 06 0.7340 0.7355 0.7289 66 0.7305 40 0.7345 Jan 05 0.7285 0.7356 0.7273 83 0.7345 65 0.7280 Jan 04 0.7230 0.7284 0.7214 70 0.7280 60 0.7220 Jan 03 0.7200 0.7241 0.7182 59 0.7220 5 0.7215 0.7373 0.7288 0.7373 0.7182 0.7524 0.7161 0.7373 0.7182 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) (14/Dec) (23/Dec) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7571 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7524 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7430 High Dec 15 0.7396 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7284 Low Jan 09 0.7206 Low Jan 04 0.7160 Low 02/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) 0.7142 Low 24/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY 0.7335 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7270 0.7405 0.7435
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 11/10/2016-12/01/2017 (JAK) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 09/01/2017; 0,6954; 0,7032; 0,6948; 0,7010 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 09/01/2017; 0,6979 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 09/01/2017; 0,7026 0.7402 0.7307 0.7238 Price 0,74 0,735 0,73 0,725 0,72 0.7032 @her1en 0.7054 0.6859 RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 09/01/2017; 58,411 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 09/01/2017; 0,0096 Value 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Desember 2016 Januari 2017 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 0,695 0,69 0,685 Coba untuk masuk area bullish trend channel harian RSI dukung kenaikan (Research @her1en) Jan 09 0.6960 0.7032 0.6950 82 0.7010 45 0.6965 Jan 06 0.7020 0.7043 0.6955 88 0.6965 60 0.7025 Jan 05 0.6970 0.7036 0.6954 82 0.7025 65 0.6960 Jan 04 0.6920 0.6966 0.6891 75 0.6960 50 0.6910 Jan 03 0.6930 0.6974 0.6886 88 0.6910 35 0.6945 0.7032 0.6950 0.7043 0.6886 0.7238 0.6863 0.7043 0.6886 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) (14/Dec) (23/Dec) (06/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7307 High 10/Nov/2016 0.7238 High 14/Dec/2016 (Peak) 0.7122 High 15/Dec/2016 0.7054 High 16/Dec/2016 0.6948 Low Jan 09 0.6859 Low 23/Dec/2016 (Bottom) 0.6798 Low 03/Jun/2016 0.6756 Low 01/Jun/2016 BUY 0.7000 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.6935 0.7070 0.7100
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Pola symmetrical triangle masih efektif Koreksi hadapi trendline support di sekitar 122.40 (Research @ErwinRiset) Jan 09 123.40 123.72 122.43 129 122.65 55 123.20 Jan 06 122.25 123.43 122.14 129 123.20 85 122.35 Jan 05 122.95 123.12 122.04 108 122.35 65 123.00 Jan 04 122.55 123.13 122.42 71 123.00 55 122.45 Jan 03 122.80 123.32 122.28 104 122.45 55 123.00 123.72 122.43 123.72 122.04 124.09 118.77 123.72 122.04 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (05/Jan) (15/Dec) (05/Dec) (09/Jan) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 124.62 High 12/May/2016 (Peak) 124.20 High 31/May/2016 (Reaction high) 124.09 High 15/Dec/2016 (Peak level) 123.84 High 30/Dec/2016 (Reaction high) 121.98 Low 05/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) 121.55 Low 29/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) 121.17 Reaction low (2-H chart) 120.86 Low 12/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) BUY ---- SELL 123.15 STOP LOSS 124.00 122.10 121.65
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi terbatas dengan area trendline support masih utuh Pola ascending triangle masih dukung sinyal bullish RSI sudah oversold (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.3235 1.3227 1.3276 1.3194 1.3460 1.3174 1.3598 1.3078 1.3460 1.3174 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) (28/Dec) (14/Dec) (03/Jan) (06/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.3734 High 25/Feb/2016 1.3598 High 28/Dec/2016 1.3460 High 03/Jan/2017 1.3312 High 05/Jan/2017 1.3174 Low 06/Jan/2017 1.3078 Low 14/Dec/2016 (Bottom) 1.2996 Low 22/Sep/2016 1.2906 Low 09/Sep/2016 BUY 1.3190 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.3120 1.3330 1.3425
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 26/09/2016-16/01/2017 (JAK) 1343.64 1328.06 1337.40 Price Ozs 1292.14 1.320 1.290 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 10/01/2017; 1.181,1600; 1.181,3199; 1.180,3000; 1.180,5100 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 10/01/2017; 1.162,4023 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 10/01/2017; 1.169,4510 1233.06 @her1en 1197.54 1185.80 1.260 1.230 1.200 1.170 1.140 Ikuti pola bullish trend channel harian Didukung kenaikan dalam hourly (Research @her1en) 1122.35 1131.35 RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 10/01/2017; 70,704 Value Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 Ozs 10/01/2017; 49,1000 Value 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 Ozs Sep 16 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Desember 2016 Januari 2017 1.110 AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Jan 09 1174.00 1185.80 1172.54 13.26 1181.50 9.00 1172.50 1176.10 1178.50 Jan 06 1181.00 1181.40 1171.06 10.34 1172.50 7.50 1180.00 1178.00 1175.85 Jan 05 1166.00 1184.90 1162.84 22.06 1180.00 16.00 1164.00 1173.05 1176.70 Jan 04 1157.00 1167.83 1156.36 11.47 1164.00 5.50 1158.50 1165.90 1164.25 Jan 03 1150.00 1163.52 1146.31 17.21 1158.50 7.50 1151.00 1148.65 1151.00 1185.80 1172.54 1185.80 1146.31 1187.71 1123.04 1185.80 1146.31 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) (05/Dec) (15/Dec) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1233.07 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 1221.06 High 22/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 1197.54 High 28/Nov/2016 1185.80 High 09/Jan/2017 1171.78 Low Jan 09 1162.29 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1145.68 Low 03/Jan/2017 (Reaction low) 1131.35 Low 27/Dec/2016 BUY 1178.00 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1168.00 1189.70 1194.60
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= Cndl; XAG=; Bid 10/01/2017; 16,5630; 16,5680; 16,5200; 16,5500 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 10/01/2017; 16,3334 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 10/01/2017; 16,4795 18.99 11/10/2016-16/01/2017 (JAK) Price Ozs 18,5 17.50 17.24 @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 10/01/2017; 64,275 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 10/01/2017; 0,6200 Value 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Desember 2016 Januari 2017 16.94 15.59 16.71 18 17,5 17 16,5 16 Kenaikan mulai terlihat RSI naik dalam harian Support krusial di sekitar 15.75 Sedangkan short-term resistance di sekitar 17.25 (Research @her1en) Jan 09 16.49 16.67 16.40 0.27 16.54 0.08 16.46 Jan 06 16.56 16.65 16.26 0.39 16.46 0.10 16.56 Jan 05 16.42 16.69 16.40 0.29 16.56 0.15 16.41 Jan 04 16.27 16.50 16.24 0.26 16.41 0.13 16.28 Jan 03 15.92 16.47 15.88 0.59 16.28 0.38 15.91 16.67 16.40 16.69 15.88 17.21 15.61 16.69 15.88 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) (07/Dec) (20/Dec) (05/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 17.50 High 14/Nov/2016 17.25 Pivot line (1-D chart) 16.95 High 15/Dec/2016 16.79 Reaction high on 1-H chart 16.37 Low Jan 09 16.23 Low 04/Jan/2017 15.87 Low 03/Jan/2017 15.75 Pivot line BUY 16.45 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 16.20 16.75 16.95
Page 12 of 12 CLG7/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Jan. 2017 - Reuters) Daily CLG7 WMA; CLG7; Trade Price(Last); 55 09/01/2017; 51,39 EMA; CLG7; Trade Price(Last); 20 09/01/2017; 52,70 Cndl; CLG7; Trade Price 09/01/2017; 53,75; 53,83; 51,76; 51,79 55.44 55.24 05/10/2016-12/01/2017 (JAK) Price Bbl 54 53 RSI; CLG7; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 09/01/2017; 38,302 Value Mom; CLG7; Trade Price(Last); 14 Bbl 09/01/2017; -1,16 Value 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 27 03 09 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Desember 2016 Januari 2017 45.74 51.10 @her1en 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Tekanan turun didukung hourly Strong resistance saat ini di 55.24 (Research @her1en) Jan 09 53.74 53.81 51.75 2.06 51.77 1.90 53.67 Jan 06 53.72 54.28 53.31 0.97 53.67 0.09 53.76 Jan 05 53.36 54.10 52.79 1.31 53.76 0.42 53.34 Jan 04 52.47 53.38 52.14 1.24 53.34 0.88 52.46 Jan 03 54.18 55.22 52.14 3.08 52.46 1.42 53.88 53.81 51.75 55.22 52.14 54.49 48.98 55.22 52.14 (09/Jan) (09/Jan) (03/Jan) (03/Jan) (12/Dec) (01/Dec) (03/Jan) (03/Jan) ANALYSIS & 56.79 High 06/Jul/2015 55.24 High 03/Jan/2017 54.50 Pivot line 53.83 High Jan 09 51.10 Low Jan 09 50.50 Low 16/Dec/2016 49.61 Low 08/Dec/2016 (Reaction low) 49.07 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 52.05 STOP LOSS 53.25 50.55 50.05