z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Bursa global menguat ke level tertinggi sejak Desember pada hari Kamis dan terapresiasi untuk ketiga kalinya karena investor memburu aset beresiko jelang pertemuan puncak dewan kebijakan dan produsen minyak. Wall Street tidak banyak berubah setelah S&P 500 ditutup di level tertinggi sejak awal Desember. Harga minyak berfluktuasi dan berakhir lebih rendah setelah laporan beragam dari Badan Energi Internasional dan skeptisisme bahwa pertemuan yang akan datang dari produsen utama akan berbuat banyak untuk memperketat keseimbangan pasokan dan permintaan. Sementara itu langkah Singapura untuk melawan deflasi terjadi menjelang persiapan pertemuan Bank Dunia dan Dana Moneter Internasional pekan ini di Washington, yang berjanji akan menyiapkan dana guna mengatasi pelambatan ekonomi. Bank sentral Singapura pada hari Kamis mengejutkan pasar dengan mengatakan akan mengatur laju apresiasi dolar Singapura dengan kebijakan NEER (nominal effective exchange rate) nol persen, dimulai pada hari Kamis, dan beralih ke sikap kebijakan yang netral setelah data sebelumnya menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhenti pada kuartal pertama. Meskipun data perdagangan dari China dirilis optimis pada Rabu sebelumnya, namun keputusan kebijakan Singapura ini memberikan sinyal kekhawatiran dalam menghadapi ekonomi global. Sementara itu di awal pekan ini, IMF memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan global untuk keempat kalinya dalam satu tahun terakhir, mengutip sekelompok faktor termasuk kelemahan kronis di negara maju. Jumat 15 April 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 06.00 KR Unemployment Rate Mar N/A % 4.1 N/A KR Export Growth Revised Mar N/A % -8.2 09.00 CN Industrial Output YY Mar 5.9 % 5.4 09.00 CN Retail Sales YY Mar 10.4 % 10.2 09.00 CN GDP YY Q1 6.7 % 6.8 11.30 JP Industrial Output Rev Feb N/A % -6.2 15.30 GB Construction O/P Vol MM Feb 0.0 % -0.2 16.00 EZ Eurostat Trade NSA Eur Feb N/A B 6.2 19.30 CA Manufacturing Sales MM Feb -1.5 % 2.3 19.30 US NY Fed Manufacturing Apr 2.21 IND 0.62 20.15 US Industrial Output MM Mar -0.1 % -0.5 20.15 US Capacity Utilization MM Mar 75.4 % 75.4 21.00 US UoM Sentiment Prelim Apr 92.0 IND 91.0 03.00 US Net L-T Flows Exswaps Feb N/A B -12.0 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= Value 50 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 15/04/2016; 1,1268; 1,1269; 1,1258; 1,1262 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 15/04/2016; 1,1293 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 15/04/2016; 1,1219 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 15/04/2016; 36,176 1.1375 1.0809 1.0820 1.1142 1.1166 02/12/2015-22/04/2016 (GMT) 1.1464 @her1en Price 1,14 1,13 1,12 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 1,07 1,06 1,05 1,04 Menjauhi puncak trend channel harian Dekati level support 1.1170-1.1140 RSI flat (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 15/04/2016; 0,0069 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Apr 14 1.1280 1.1294 1.1234 60 1.1255 25 1.1280 Apr 13 1.1385 1.1391 1.1273 118 1.1280 110 1.1390 Apr 12 1.1410 1.1464 1.1348 116 1.1390 15 1.1405 Apr 11 1.1405 1.1446 1.1374 72 1.1405 5 1.1400 Apr 08 1.1370 1.1419 1.1350 69 1.1400 30 1.1370 1.1464 1.1234 1.1464 1.1234 1.1411 1.0823 1.1464 1.0711 (12/Apr) (14/Apr) (12/Apr) (14/Apr) (31/Mar) (10/Mar) (12/Apr) (05/Jan) 1.1495 High 15/Oct/2015 (Peak) 1.1464 High 12/Apr/2016 1.1391 High Apr 13 1.1294 High Apr 14 1.1177 Reaction low on hourly chart 1.1142 Low Mar 24 1.1055 Reaction low on daily chart 1.0980 Pivot Line BUY ----- SELL 1.1285 STOP LOSS 1.1345 1.1215 1.1185
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Reli berlanjut mendekati level psikologi 110 RSI keluar dari zona oversold Waspadai daily trend masih bearish! (Research @ErwinRiset) Apr 14 109.45 109.54 108.91 63 109.35 5 109.30 Apr 13 108.65 109.39 108.51 88 109.30 75 108.55 Apr 12 107.90 108.78 107.88 90 108.55 55 108.00 Apr 11 108.25 108.43 107.64 79 108.00 25 108.25 Apr 08 108.50 109.09 108.09 100 108.25 10 108.35 109.54 107.64 112.58 107.64 114.55 110.68 121.68 107.64 (14/Apr) (11/Apr) (01/Apr) (11/Apr) (02/Mar) (17/Mar) (29/Jan) (11/Apr) 112.58 High 01/Apr/2016 111.79 High 04/Apr/2016 110.62 High 06/Apr/2016 109.85 High 07/Apr/2016 108.48 Low 13/Apr/2016 107.50 Pivot line 106.22 Low 21/Oct/2014 (Reaction low) 105.18 Low 15/Oct/2014 (Bottom) BUY 109.20 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 108.25 109.90 110.25
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily trend cenderung bearish Koreksi mendekati area support di 1.4050 (Research @ErwinRiset) Apr 14 1.4190 1.4211 1.4090 121 1.4150 55 1.4205 Apr 13 1.4265 1.4279 1.4194 85 1.4205 65 1.4270 Apr 12 1.4235 1.4347 1.4197 150 1.4270 35 1.4235 Apr 11 1.4125 1.4284 1.4107 177 1.4235 110 1.4125 Apr 08 1.4050 1.4140 1.4041 99 1.4125 70 1.4055 1.4347 1.4090 1.4372 1.4007 1.4514 1.3905 1.4813 1.3837 (12/Apr) (14/Apr) (01/Apr) (06/Apr) (18/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) 1.4514 High 18/Mar/2016 (Peak) 1.4458 High 30/Mar/2016 (Peak) 1.4347 High 12/Apr/2016 1.4279 High 13/Apr/2016 1.4050 Trendline support 1.4002 Low 06/Apr/2016 (Bottom) 1.3902 Low 01/Mar/2016 1.3833 Low 29/Feb/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 1.4190 STOP LOSS 1.4290 1.4040 1.3990
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Reli berupaya uji resistance di 0.9785 Waspadai daily trend yang masih cenderung bearish Short-term support di 0.9490 Key support di 0.9473 (Research @ErwinRiset) Apr 14 0.9670 0.9690 0.9638 52 0.9670 UNCH 0.9670 Apr 13 0.9555 0.9673 0.9548 125 0.9670 120 0.9550 Apr 12 0.9545 0.9594 0.9498 96 0.9550 10 0.9540 Apr 11 0.9535 0.9569 0.9502 67 0.9540 UNCH 0.9540 Apr 08 0.9565 0.9585 0.9523 62 0.9540 25 0.9565 0.9690 0.9498 0.9690 0.9498 1.0094 0.9572 1.0257 0.9498 (14/Apr) (12/Apr) (14/Apr) (12/Apr) (10/Mar) (31/Mar) (29/Jan) (12/Apr) 1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016 1.0000 level of psychology 0.9915 High 16/Mar/2016 0.9795 High 17/Mar/2016 0.9633 Low 14/Apr/2016 0.9540 Low 13/Apr/2016 0.9473 Low 15/Oct/2015 (Bottom) 0.9379 Low 26/Aug/2015 BUY 0.9645 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 0.9600 0.9750 0.9820
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 04/12/2015-22/04/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 15/04/2016; 0,7591 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 15/04/2016; 0,7503 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 15/04/2016; 0,7694; 0,7695; 0,7684; 0,7689 0.7400 0.7413 0.7488 0.7736 Price 0,77 0,76 0,75 0,74 0,73 0.6971 0.7105 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 Pola bullish masih terjadi RSI flat Target di level 0.78 (Research @her1en) 0.6824 @her1en RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 15/04/2016; 61,928 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 15/04/2016; 0,0146 Value 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 0,68 Apr 14 0.7660 0.7736 0.7620 116 0.7690 40 0.7650 Apr 13 0.7685 0.7715 0.7635 80 0.7650 35 0.7685 Apr 12 0.7590 0.7689 0.7584 105 0.7685 90 0.7595 Apr 11 0.7565 0.7629 0.7529 100 0.7595 45 0.7550 Apr 08 0.7515 0.7579 0.7501 78 0.7550 45 0.7505 0.7736 0.7529 0.7736 0.7493 0.7721 0.7110 0.7736 0.6828 (14/Apr) (11/Apr) (14/Apr) (07/Apr) (31/Mar) (01/Mar) (14/Apr) (15/Jan) 0.7934 Reaction high on daily chart 0.7848 Reaction high on daily chart (Jun 18/2015) 0.7771 High 24/Jun/2015 (Reaction high) 0.7736 High Apr 14 0.7616 Low Apr 14 0.7580 Low Apr 12 0.7525 Low Apr 11 0.7475 Low 24/Mar/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 0.7665 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7595 0.7755 0.7785
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 25/11/2015-22/04/2016 (GMT) 0.6910 0.6886 0.6966 Price 0,69 0,68 0.6230 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 15/04/2016; 0,6841; 0,6848; 0,6838; 0,6844 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 15/04/2016; 0,6818 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 15/04/2016; 0,6768 0.6346 0.6550 0.6667 0.6757 @her1en RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 15/04/2016; 51,609 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 15/04/2016; 0,0124 Value 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 0,67 0,66 0,65 0,64 0,63 0,62 0,61 0,6 Jauhi puncak trend channel RSI turun Target ke level 0.67 0.66 (Research @her1en) Apr 14 0.6915 0.6921 0.6824 97 0.6845 70 0.6915 Apr 13 0.6920 0.6952 0.6899 53 0.6915 FLAT 0.6915 Apr 12 0.6855 0.6925 0.6853 72 0.6915 55 0.6860 Apr 11 0.6815 0.6878 0.6792 86 0.6860 50 0.6810 Apr 08 0.6780 0.6829 0.6773 56 0.6810 35 0.6775 0.6952 0.6792 0.6952 0.6760 0.6966 0.6572 0.6966 0.6348 (13/Apr) (11/Apr) (13/Apr) (05/Apr) (31/Mar) (01/Mar) (31/Mar) (20/Jan) 0.7198 High 11/Jun/2015 0.7010 High 17/Jun/2015 (Reaction high) 0.6966 High 31/Mar/2016 (Peak) 0.6921 High Apr 14 0.6821 Low Apr 14 0.6789 Low 11/Apr/2016 0.6705 Low 29/Mar/2016 0.6667 Low 28/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) BUY ----- SELL 0.6870 STOP LOSS 0.6930 0.6800 0.6770
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Area support di 123 masih diuji RSI masih tertahan di zona oversold (27) Daily trend cenderung bearish (Research @ErwinRiset) Apr 14 123.40 123.43 122.73 70 123.10 15 123.25 Apr 13 123.70 123.86 123.01 85 123.25 35 123.60 Apr 12 123.15 123.99 123.08 91 123.60 45 123.15 Apr 11 123.50 123.72 122.83 89 123.15 25 123.40 Apr 08 123.30 124.22 123.01 121 123.40 20 123.20 123.99 122.73 128.16 122.57 128.22 122.12 132.25 122.12 (12/Apr) (14/Apr) (01/Apr) (07/Apr) (31/Mar) (01/Mar) (29/Jan) (01/Mar) 126.25 Pivot line 125.24 High 07/Apr/2016 124.64 Pivot line 123.99 High 12/Apr/2016 (Reaction high) 122.54 Low 07/Apr/2016 122.06 Low 01/Mar/2016 (Bottom) 119.08 Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) 118.86 Low 25/Feb/2013 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 123.35 STOP LOSS 124.20 122.55 122.10
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Rebound berlanjut ditengah daily trend yang bearish Key support di 1.2700 1.2650 (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.2983 1.2839 1.3014 1.2744 1.3217 1.2744 1.3552 1.2853 1.4689 1.2744 (11/Apr) (13/Apr) (05/Apr) (13/Apr) (01/Mar) (31/Mar) (20/Jan) (13/Apr) 1.3217 High 05/Apr/2016 (reaction high) 1.3156 High 08/Apr/2016 1.3014 High 11/Apr/2016 1.2919 High 12/Apr/2016 1.2744 Low 13/Apr/2016 1.2719 Low 15/Jul/2015 1.2652 Low 10/Jul/2015 (Reaction low) 1.2640 Low 07/Jul/2015 BUY 1.2825 SELL --- STOP LOSS 1.2725 1.2950 1.3050
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 17/12/2015-21/04/2016 (GMT) Cndl; XAU=; Bid 14/04/2016; 1.241,6600; 1.244,0000; 1.223,4000; 1.227,0100 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 14/04/2016; 1.235,8321 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 14/04/2016; 1.235,3361 1050 1200 1282.51 1270.90 1208.15 1162.60 1214.45 @her1en RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 14/04/2016; 43,143 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 14/04/2016; 10,9100 Value 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 Ozs Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Price Ozs 1.260 1.230 1.200 1.170 1.140 1.110 1.080 1.050 Tekanan lanjut lagi RSI harian anjlok Dekati pivot line 1200 (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Apr 14 1241.00 1244.00 1224.43 19.57 1226.00 17.00 1243.00 1240.30 1233.85 Apr 13 1254.50 1256.80 1240.63 16.17 1243.00 12.00 1255.00 1245.75 1245.75 Apr 12 1257.50 1262.60 1251.91 10.69 1255.00 2.00 1257.00 1259.20 1254.60 Apr 11 1244.50 1258.70 1240.90 17.80 1257.00 16.00 1241.00 1247.25 1254.75 Apr 08 1239.00 1242.80 1230.24 12.56 1241.00 UNCH 1241.00 1235.00 1239.50 1262.60 1224.43 1262.60 1209.55 1282.51 1208.95 1282.51 1062.28 (12/Apr) (14/Apr) (12/Apr) (01/Apr) (11/Mar) (28/Mar) (11/Mar) (04/Jan) 1266.51 High 18/Mar/2016 1262.60 High Apr 12 1256.80 High Apr 13 1244.00 High Apr 14 1222.30 Low 07/Apr/2016 1216.70 Low Apr 06 1214.45 Reaction low on daily chart 1208.15 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 1229.00 STOP LOSS 1237.00 1219.00 1214.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Hourly XAG= Cndl; XAG=; Bid 22:00 14/04/2016; 16,1480; 16,1480; 16,1480; 16,1480 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 22:00 14/04/2016; 16,1318 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 22:00 14/04/2016; 16,1323 16.31 19:00 06/04/2016-6:00 15/04/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs 16,2 16 15.88 15,8 15.77 @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22:00 14/04/2016; 55,240 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 22:00 14/04/2016; 0,0930 Value 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 Ozs 07 Apr 16 08 Apr 16 11 Apr 16 12 Apr 16 13 Apr 16 14 Apr 16 15,6 15,4 15,2 15 Jauhi level puncak RSI harian hourly merosot (Research @her1en) Apr 14 16.18 16.23 15.88 0.35 16.13 0.06 16.19 Apr 13 16.16 16.30 15.98 0.32 16.19 0.02 16.17 Apr 12 15.90 16.19 15.77 0.42 16.17 0.28 15.89 Apr 11 15.38 15.95 15.34 0.61 15.89 0.55 15.34 Apr 08 15.20 15.37 15.11 0.26 15.34 0.14 15.20 16.30 15.34 16.30 14.77 16.12 14.70 16.30 13.73 (13/Apr) (11/Apr) (13/Apr) (01/Apr) (18/Mar) (01/Mar) (13/Apr) (12/Jan) 16.44 High 18/Jun/2015 16.36 High 28/Oct/2015 (Peak) 16.31 High Apr 13 16.24 High Apr 14 15.88 Low Apr 14 15.77 Low Apr 12 15.34 Low 11/Apr/2016 15.02 Low 07/Apr/2016 BUY ----- SELL 16.20 STOP LOSS 16.45 15.90 15.70
Page 12 of 12 CLK6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Apr. 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLK6 01/12/2015-21/04/2016 (NYC) 42.70 42.49 42.42 Price Bbl 40 42 40 39.25 38 Cndl; CLK6; Trade Price 14/04/2016; 41,54; 42,16; 40,84; 41,45 WMA; CLK6; Trade Price(Last); 55 14/04/2016; 38,23 EMA; CLK6; Trade Price(Last); 20 14/04/2016; 39,24 29.85 35.24 @her1en RSI; CLK6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 14/04/2016; 65,590 Value Bbl Mom; CLK6; Trade Price(Last); 14 14/04/2016; 1,99 Value 07 14 21 28 04 11 19 25 01 08 16 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 36 34 32 30 28 Bbl Tekanan dalam harianhourly Target level 40-39 RSI flat (Research @her1en) Apr 14 41.53 42.14 40.83 1.31 41.44 0.10 41.54 Apr 13 41.59 42.40 41.23 1.17 41.54 0.09 41.63 Apr 12 40.33 42.23 40.08 2.15 41.63 1.31 40.32 Apr 11 39.68 40.73 39.24 1.49 40.32 0.67 39.65 Apr 08 37.52 39.82 37.44 2.38 39.65 2.14 37.51 42.40 39.24 42.40 35.23 42.47 33.36 42.47 26.04 (13/Apr) (11/Apr) (13/Apr) (05/Apr) (18/Mar) (01/Mar) (18/Mar) (11/Feb) 46.00 Reaction high on daily chart 44.08 High Dec 07, 2015 42.98 Reaction high on daily chart 42.42 High Apr 13 40.84 Low Apr 14 40.09 Low Apr 12 39.25 Low 11/Apr/2016 38.50 Pivot line BUY ----- SELL 41.60 STOP LOSS 42.60 40.10 39.60