z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Bursa Saham AS berakhir sedikit lebih tinggi pada hari Jumat karena investor dibantu untuk data yang menunjukkan pertumbuhan upah AS pada bulan April meskipun pertumbuhan pekerjaan lebih lemah dari perkiraan, sementara itu data upah juga mendorong lagi Treasury yields hasil yang lebih tinggi. Nonfarm payrolls meningkat sebesar 160.000 pekerjaan bulan lalu, jauh di bawah 202.000 ekonom yang disurvei oleh Reuters telah memperkirakan rata-rata dan pekerjaan paling sedikit ditambahkan dalam tujuh bulan. Tingkat yang meragukan apakah the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga pada akhir tahun. Harga minyak naik tipis pada Jumat, didukung oleh penurunan awal dolar dan api yang telah menyusut pada kebakaran di wilayah Kanada pada (oil sands crude) area produksi minyak mentahnya. Senin 09 Mei 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 06.50 JP BoJ Minutes 08.30 AU ANZ Newspaper Job Ads Apr N/A % -11.4 12.00 JP Consumer Confid Index Apr 40.8 IND 41.7 13.00 DE Industrial Orders MM Mar 0.7 % -1.2 14.00 GB Halifax House MM Apr -0.4 % 2.6 14.15 CH CPI MM Apr 0.1 % 0.3 All Day EZ Eurogroup Meetings 15.30 EZ Sentix Index May 6.1 IND 5.7 19.15 CA House Starts Annualized Apr 195 K 204.3 21.00 US Employment Trends Apr N/A IND 127.5 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 03/02/2016-12/05/2016 (GMT) 1.1375 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 06/05/2016; 1,1405; 1,1476; 1,1384; 1,1402 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 06/05/2016; 1,1370 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 1,1311 1.1464 1.1614 1,15 1,14 1,13 50 10 1.0820 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 52,094 1.1142 1.1213 @her1en 1,12 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 Rangkaian turun level high Tekanan berlanjut RSI flat Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; 0,0090 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May 06 1.1405 1.1476 1.1387 89 1.1405 5 1.1400 May 05 1.1490 1.1495 1.1386 109 1.1400 90 1.1490 May 04 1.1500 1.1528 1.1468 60 1.1490 15 1.1505 May 03 1.1525 1.1614 1.1502 112 1.1505 20 1.1525 May 02 1.1460 1.1532 1.1447 85 1.1525 75 1.1450 1.1614 1.1386 1.1614 1.1386 1.1464 1.1218 1.1614 1.0711 (03/May) (05/May) (03/May) (05/May) (12/Apr) (25/Apr) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.1711 Reaction high on hourly chart 1.1600 Reaction high on hourly chart 1.1528 High May 04 1.1476 High May 06 1.1333 Low Apr 29 1.1294 Low Apr 28 1.1254 Low Apr 26 1.1213 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 1.1425 STOP LOSS 1.1490 1.1355 1.1325
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Daily JPY= 122 24/08/2015-20/05/2016 (JAK) / 117.50 118 116.46 106.22 Cndl; JPY=; Bid 06/05/2016; 107,25; 107,41; 106,43; 107,10 EMA; JPY=; Bid(Open); 20 06/05/2016; 108,87 WMA; JPY=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 110,00 SMA; JPY=; Bid(Last); 200 06/05/2016; 117,82 105.49 107.50 110.65 116 114 112 110 108 106 Tekanan ditunjukkan hourly RSI merosot RSI; JPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 35,867 / / Mom; JPY=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; -1,71 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Sep 15 Okt 15 Nop 15 Des 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 Mei 16 May 06 107.35 107.41 106.45 96 107.15 15 107.30 May 05 106.95 107.49 106.81 68 107.30 30 107.00 May 04 106.65 107.45 106.26 119 107.00 50 106.50 May 03 106.40 106.53 105.55 98 106.50 10 106.40 May 02 106.35 106.81 106.17 64 106.40 20 106.60 107.49 105.55 107.49 105.55 112.58 106.58 121.68 105.55 (05/May) (03/May) (05/May) (03/May) (01/Apr) (29/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 109.85 Pivot line 108.75 Pivot line 108.19 High 29/Apr/2016 107.41 High May 06 106.23 Low May 04 105.49 Low 16/Oct/2014 105.18 Low 15/Oct/2014 (Bottom) 104.67 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ---- SELL 107.30 STOP LOSS 107.95 106.60 106.30
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily GBP= 04/08/2015-20/05/2016 (JAK) 1.5818 1.5658 1.5508 1,56 1,54 1,52 1.4950 1,5 Cndl; GBP=; Bid 06/05/2016; 1,4481; 1,4541; 1,4411; 1,4428 EMA; GBP=; Bid(Open); 20 06/05/2016; 1,4436 WMA; GBP=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 1,4343 SMA; GBP=; Bid(Last); 200 06/05/2016; 1,4845 1.4668 1.4577 1.3833 1.4050 RSI; GBP=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 44,722 1,48 1,46 1,44 1,42 1,4 1,38 Rangkaian turun level low harian RSI merosot Mom; GBP=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; 0,0155 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Agust 15 Sep 15 Okt 15 Nop 15 Des 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 Mei 16 May 06 1.4490 1.4541 1.4416 125 1.4430 50 1.4480 May 05 1.4505 1.4529 1.4444 85 1.4480 15 1.4495 May 04 1.4545 1.4571 1.4462 109 1.4495 45 1.4540 May 03 1.4665 1.4769 1.4530 239 1.4540 130 1.4670 May 02 1.4600 1.4695 1.4578 117 1.4670 55 1.4615 1.4769 1.4416 1.4769 1.4416 1.4669 1.4007 1.4813 1.3837 (03/May) (06/May) (03/May) (06/May) (29/Apr) (06/Apr) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) ANALYSIS & 1.4725 High 05/Jan/2016 1.4685 Trendline resistance 1.4571 High May 04 1.4541 High May 06 1.4400 Low 25/Apr/2016 1.4298 Low 21/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) 1.4129 Low 18/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) 1.4088 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ---- SELL 1.4455 STOP LOSS 1.4520 1.4375 1.4345
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Daily CHF= 1.0330 1.0257 16/11/2015-17/05/2016 (JAK) / 1.0100 1,02 1,01 1.0000 1 0.9490 Cndl; CHF=; Bid 06/05/2016; 0,9673; 0,9734; 0,9648; 0,9720 EMA; CHF=; Bid(Open); 20 06/05/2016; 0,9645 WMA; CHF=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 0,9676 0.9800 0,99 0,98 0,97 0,96 0,95 Rangkaian kenaikan level high harian RSI naik / RSI; CHF=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 62,460 / Mom; CHF=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; 0,0085 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Nop 15 Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May 06 0.9680 0.9727 0.9655 72 0.9715 30 0.9685 May 05 0.9570 0.9695 0.9566 129 0.9685 110 0.9575 May 04 0.9540 0.9589 0.9534 55 0.9575 30 0.9545 May 03 0.9550 0.9557 0.9444 113 0.9545 UNCH 0.9545 May 02 0.9585 0.9604 0.9536 68 0.9545 45 0.9590 0.9727 0.9444 0.9727 0.9444 0.9796 0.9498 1.0257 0.9444 (06/May) (03/May) (06/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (12/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.0000 Pivot line 0.9915 Reaction high on daily chart 0.9800 Pivot line 0.9755 High 27/Apr/2016 0.9648 Low May 06 0.9625 Reaction low on 1H chart 0.9561 Low May 05 0.9530 Low May 04 BUY 0.9700 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 0.9635 0.9770 0.9800
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 10/12/2015-16/05/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 06/05/2016; 0,7583 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 0,7594 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 06/05/2016; 0,7463; 0,7478; 0,7336; 0,7364 0.6824 0.7400 0.6971 0.7105 0.7680 0.7413 0.7835 @her1en 0.7765 0.7336 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 24,911 Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; -0,0385 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 0,78 0,77 0,76 0,75 0,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 0,68 Break area trend channel dibawahnya Level high yang merosot May 06 0.7475 0.7478 0.7339 139 0.7365 95 0.7460 May 05 0.7465 0.7513 0.7452 61 0.7460 5 0.7455 May 04 0.7500 0.7517 0.7448 69 0.7455 35 0.7490 May 03 0.7660 0.7719 0.7486 233 0.7490 175 0.7665 May 02 0.7615 0.7668 0.7594 74 0.7665 65 0.7600 0.7719 0.7339 0.7719 0.7339 0.7828 0.7493 0.7828 0.6828 (03/May) (06/May) (03/May) (06/May) (20/Apr) (07/Apr) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7773 High Apr 22 0.7719 High May 03 0.7517 High May 04 0.7478 High May 06 0.7336 Low Mar 04 0.7278 Low May 03 0.7162 Low Mar 02 0.7105 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 0.7385 STOP LOSS 0.7450 0.7315 0.7285
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 16/12/2015-13/05/2016 (GMT) 0.6910 0.6886 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 06/05/2016; 0,6881; 0,6891; 0,6806; 0,6836 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 06/05/2016; 0,6890 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 0,6853 0.7054 0,7 0,69 0,68 0.6757 0.6803 0,67 0.6230 0.6346 0.6550 @her1en RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 40,483 Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; -0,0112 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 0,66 0,65 0,64 0,63 0,62 Rangkaian turun level high harian RSI turun May 06 0.6885 0.6891 0.6809 82 0.6840 40 0.6880 May 05 0.6885 0.6917 0.6873 44 0.6880 FLAT 0.6880 May 04 0.6925 0.6939 0.6861 78 0.6880 35 0.6915 May 03 0.7035 0.7053 0.6912 141 0.6915 100 0.7015 May 02 0.6990 0.7023 0.6968 55 0.7015 35 0.6980 0.7053 0.6809 0.7053 0.6809 0.7054 0.6760 0.7054 0.6348 (03/May) (06/May) (03/May) (06/May) (19/Apr) (05/Apr) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7054 Reaction high on hourly chart 0.7004 Reaction high on hourly chart 0.6939 High May 04 0.6891 High May 06 0.6789 Low 11/Apr/2016 0.6705 Low Mar 29 0.6667 Reaction low on daily chart 0.6574 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 0.6860 STOP LOSS 0.6930 0.6790 0.6760
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Daily EURJPY= 21/01/2016-18/05/2016 (JAK) 128.16 JPY 128 127 126.25 126 124.64 125 Cndl; EURJPY=; Bid 06/05/2016; 122,31; 122,45; 121,46; 122,15 EMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Open); 20 06/05/2016; 123,73 WMA; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 124,41 119.08 118.86 121.67 123.35 122.50 124 123 122 121 120 119 Tekanan turun berlanjut Dukungan dilihat dalam hourly, RSI flat JPY Mom; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; -0,94 RSI; EURJPY=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 37,143 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Jan 16 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 JPY May 06 122.40 122.45 121.50 95 122.20 15 122.35 May 05 122.90 123.13 122.11 102 122.35 60 122.95 May 04 122.70 123.52 122.30 122 122.95 40 122.55 May 03 122.65 122.76 122.13 63 122.55 15 122.70 May 02 122.00 122.89 121.61 128 122.70 65 122.05 123.52 121.50 123.52 121.50 128.16 121.72 132.25 121.50 (04/May) (06/May) (04/May) (06/May) (01/Apr) (18/Apr) (29/Jan) (06/May) ANALYSIS & 124.64 Pivot line 123.52 High May 04 123.13 High May 05 122.45 High May 06 121.46 Low May 06 119.08 Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) 118.85 Pivot line 117.55 Pivot line BUY ---- SELL 122.40 STOP LOSS 123.05 121.70 121.40
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Daily CAD= Cndl; CAD=; Bid 06/05/2016; 1,2851; 1,2951; 1,2831; 1,2907 EMA; CAD=; Bid(Open); 20 06/05/2016; 1,2770 WMA; CAD=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 1,2898 1.3812 1.3635 1.4040 1.35 14/08/2015-20/05/2016 (JAK) / 1,37 1,36 1,35 1,34 1.3220 1,33 1,32 1.29 1.3035 1.2535 1,31 1,3 1,29 1,28 1,27 1,26 1,25 Break area trend channel turun RSI naik / RSI; CAD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 68,398 Mom; CAD=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; 0,0127 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 12 19 26 02 09 16 23 30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Sep 15 Okt 15 Nop 15 Des 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16 Mei 16 / 40 WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.2548 1.2907 1.2951 1.2458 1.2951 1.2458 1.3217 1.2495 1.4689 1.2458 (06/May) (03/May) (06/May) (03/May) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.3083 Reaction high on daily chart 1.3014 High 11/Apr/2016 1.2990 High 18/Apr/2016 1.2900 Pivot line 1.2828 Reaction low on 1H chart 1.2782 Low May 05 1.2693 Low May 04 1.2535 Pivot line BUY 1.2885 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.2815 1.2965 1.2995
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Hourly XAU= Cndl; XAU=; Bid 21:00 06/05/2016; 1.288,3100; 1.288,7600; 1.287,7700; 1.288,3000 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 21:00 06/05/2016; 1.285,5824 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 21:00 06/05/2016; 1.282,0397 1303.60 8:00 18/04/2016-15:00 09/05/2016 (GMT) 1295.70 Ozs 1.290 1.280 1.270 1.260 1237.65 @her1en 1.250 1.240 1.230 1.220 Rangkaian naik dalam hourly RSI flat RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 21:00 06/05/2016; 54,728 Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 21:00 06/05/2016; 9,1400 19 20 21 22 24 26 27 28 29 01 03 04 05 06 08 Ozs April 2016 Mei 2016 AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) May 06 1277.50 1295.70 1274.90 20.80 1289.00 12.00 1277.00 1280.25 1289.00 May 05 1282.50 1286.00 1269.63 16.37 1277.00 2.50 1279.50 1275.75 1280.25 May 04 1286.50 1289.30 1272.38 16.92 1279.50 7.00 1286.50 1280.30 1283.00 May 03 1290.50 1302.00 1282.83 19.17 1286.50 4.50 1291.00 1296.50 1294.00 May 02 1294.00 1303.60 1288.23 15.37 1291.00 3.00 1294.00 1274.50 1285.65 1303.60 1269.63 1303.60 1269.63 1296.11 1209.55 1303.60 1062.28 (02/May) (05/May) (02/May) (05/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1315.20 High Aug 15, 2014 1306.20 Reaction high on daily chart 1302.00 High May 03 1295.70 High May 06 1277.40 Reaction low on 1H chart 1271.25 Low May 04 1264.76 Low Apr 29 1252.82 Reaction low on hourly chart BUY 1286.00 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1278.00 1296.00 1301.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 16/12/2015-13/05/2016 (GMT) 18.00 Ozs 13.60 Cndl; XAG=; Bid 06/05/2016; 17,3310; 17,5950; 17,1900; 17,4520 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 06/05/2016; 16,9181 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 06/05/2016; 16,2982 14.57 16.13 14.75 16.14 @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 66,646 Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 06/05/2016; 1,2310 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 Ozs Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 17 16,5 16 15,5 15 14,5 14 13,5 Hourly dukung penguatan RSI telah naik Helpdesk high level (17.579) low (17.211) May 06 17.31 17.57 17.21 0.37 17.45 0.15 17.30 May 05 17.35 17.62 17.23 0.39 17.30 0.05 17.35 May 04 17.38 17.46 17.16 0.30 17.35 0.04 17.40 May 03 17.52 17.71 17.31 0.40 17.40 0.11 17.50 May 02 17.83 17.99 17.47 0.52 17.50 0.30 17.81 17.99 17.16 17.99 17.16 17.94 14.77 17.99 13.73 (02/May) (04/May) (02/May) (04/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & 18.04 High Jan 29, 2915 18.00 High May 02 17.72 High May 03 17.63 High May 05 17.19 Low May 06 17.12 Low Apr 28 17.03 Low Apr 27 16.80 Low Apr 26 BUY 17.35 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 17.10 17.70 17.90
Page 12 of 12 CLM6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 May 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLM6 43.30 36.57 Cndl; CLM6; Trade 06/05/2016; 44,52; 45,34; 43,54; 44,66 WMA; CLM6; Trade (Last); 55 06/05/2016; 42,06 EMA; CLM6; Trade (Last); 20 06/05/2016; 43,43 39.00 46.78 16/02/2016-11/05/2016 (NYC) 43.22 @her1en RSI; CLM6; Trade (Last); 14; Exponential 06/05/2016; 57,604 Bbl Mom; CLM6; Trade (Last); 14 06/05/2016; 3,47 16 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Bbl 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 34 33 32 31 Pergerakan jauhi area trend channel harian RSI menguat May 06 44.51 45.32 43.54 1.78 44.56 0.07 44.49 May 05 44.02 46.04 43.95 2.09 44.49 0.45 44.04 May 04 43.83 44.86 43.21 1.65 44.04 0.19 43.85 May 03 44.90 45.34 43.31 2.03 43.85 1.04 44.89 May 02 45.67 46.13 44.53 1.60 44.89 1.12 46.01 46.13 43.21 46.13 43.21 46.76 35.23 46.76 26.04 (02/May) (04/May) (02/May) (04/May) (29/Apr) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 47.83 High Nov 27, 2015 46.78 Reaction high on daily chart (Dec 04, 2015) 46.15 High May 02 45.35 High May 03 43.54 Low May 06 42.94 Reaction low on hourly chart 42.50 Low Apr 26 41.30 Reaction low on daily chart BUY 44.30 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 43.20 45.80 46.30