z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK AS & Global Markets: Harga minyak melonjak sekitar 9% di hari Rabu setelah anggota OPEC setuju untuk pangkas produksi minyak, sementara rilis optimis data ekonomi AS dan komentar dari calon Menteri Keuangan AS memicu tekanan jual pada pasar obligasi. Naiknya harga minyak dorong saham energi dan saham global, dengan Dow dan S&P 500 tembus rekor tertingginya. Meningkatnya optimisme terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi global, dipimpin oleh Amerika Serikat pada harapan pemotongan pajak dan pengeluaran pemerintah federal di bawah pemerintahan Trump, mendorong rebound menuju level puncak dekat 14 tahun. Emas terpuruk, catat kerugian bulanan terburuknya sejak medio 2013. Weekahead: Pandangan pasar akan tertuju pada referendum konstitusi yang akan diselenggarakan di Italia pada hari Minggu 4 Desember 2016. Investor takut Italia bisa terjun ke ketidakpastian politik jika Perdana Menteri proeuro Matteo Renzi gagal untuk melewati referendum konstitusi, yang bisa mendorong pengunduran diri Renzi. Sedangkan di tahun 2017 sejumlah negara Eropa juga akan mengadakan pemilu seperti Belanda, Perancis dan Jerman. Perhatian pasar kemudian akan berakhir pada rilis data pekerjaan AS (non-farm payrolls) pada hari Jumat yang diharapkan akan memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga AS di bulan Desember. Kamis 01 Desember 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 06:00 KR CPI Growth* Nov 0.10% 0.1% 06:00 KR Current Account Balance* Oct N/A 7.06b 06:50 JP Business Capex (MOF) YY* Q3 N/A 3.1% 07:00 KR Exports Growth Prelim* Nov N/A -3.2% 07:00 KR Trade Balance Prelim* Nov N/A 6.97b 07:30 AU Capital Expenditure* Q3-2.5% -5.4% 07:30 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Nov N/A 51.1 07:30 KR Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Nov N/A 48.0 08:00 CN NBS Manufacturing PMI* Nov 51 51.2 08:45 CN Caixin Mfg PMI Final Nov 50.9 51.2 14:00 GB Nationwide House Price MM Nov 0.1% 0.0% 15:15 CH Retail Sales YY Oct N/A -2.3% 15:30 HK Retail Sales YY* Oct N/A -4.1% 15:55 DE Markit/BME Manufacturing PMI Nov 54.4 54.4 17:00 EZ Unemployment Rate Oct 10.0% 10.0% 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 253k 251k 20:30 US Fed's Mester Gives Opening Remarks at Financial Stability Conf 21:00 US Fed's Kaplan Speaks in San Antonio 21:30 CA RBC Manufacturing PMI SA Nov N/A 51.1 21:45 US Markit Manufacturing PMI Final Nov N/A 53.9 22:00 US Construction Spending MM Oct 0.5% -0.4% 22:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI Nov 52.2 51.9 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 01/09/2016-05/12/2016 (JAK) 1.1326 1.1278 1.1234 1.1299 Price 1,13 1,12 1,11 1,1 Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 35,458 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 30/11/2016; 1,0646; 1,0666; 1,0551; 1,0597 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 1,0719 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 1,0855 1.0816 1.0745 @her1en 1.0515 1,09 1,08 1,07 1,06 1,05 Koreksi dalam harian Pergerakan dibawah bearish trend channel harian (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -0,0292 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Nov 30 1.0650 1.0666 1.0554 112 1.0595 55 1.0650 Nov 29 1.0620 1.0654 1.0566 88 1.0650 45 1.0605 Nov 28 1.0595 1.0684 1.0564 120 1.0605 15 1.0590 Nov 25 1.0560 1.0628 1.0539 89 1.0590 35 1.0555 Nov 24 1.0545 1.0585 1.0519 66 1.0555 5 1.0550 1.0684 1.0554 1.1299 1.0519 1.1243 1.0851 1.1614 1.0519 (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (24/Nov) (03/Oct) (25/Oct) (03/May) (24/Nov) ANALYSIS & 1.0849 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0816 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0745 High 17/Nov/2016 1.0666 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0519 Low 13/Apr/2015 (Bottom) 1.0460 Trendline support 1.0392 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.0360 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 1.0620 STOP LOSS 1.0695 1.0540 1.0510
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Reli sedang uji resistance di 114.50 Target uptick di 115.60 (61.8% Fibo. Retracement of wave 125.85 99.08) Area support di 111.35 Waspadai RSI sudah overbought (Research @ErwinRiset) Nov 30 112.50 114.53 112.06 247 114.30 200 112.30 Nov 29 111.70 113.33 111.63 170 112.30 20 112.10 Nov 28 112.90 113.11 111.37 174 112.10 110 113.20 Nov 25 113.30 113.89 112.57 132 113.20 15 113.35 Nov 24 112.60 113.53 112.40 113 113.35 90 112.45 114.53 111.37 114.53 101.20 105.53 101.22 121.68 99.11 (30/Nov) (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & 117.65 High 08/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) 115.85 High 09/Feb/2016 115.25 High 10/Feb/2016 114.87 High 16/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) 113.30 Pivot line (1-H chart) 112.02 Low 30/Nov/2016 111.32 Low 28/Nov/2016 110.81 Low 23/Nov/2016 BUY 114.05 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 113.15 114.85 115.25
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Formasi ascending triangle Rebound uji resistance di 1.2530 Trendline support disekitar 1.2400 (Research @ErwinRiset) Nov 30 1.2490 1.2523 1.2421 102 1.2510 15 1.2495 Nov 29 1.2410 1.2525 1.2390 135 1.2495 85 1.2410 Nov 28 1.2470 1.2531 1.2386 145 1.2410 45 1.2455 Nov 25 1.2450 1.2473 1.2417 56 1.2455 5 1.2460 Nov 24 1.2430 1.2495 1.2403 92 1.2460 20 1.2440 1.2531 1.2386 1.2673 1.2207 1.2946 1.1885 1.5018 1.1885 (28/Nov) (28/Nov) (11/Nov) (01/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (24/Jun) (07/Oct) ANALYSIS & 1.2771 High 05/Oct/2016 1.2673 High 11/Nov/2016 1.2612 High 14/Nov/2016 1.2556 Reaction high (1-H chart) 1.2416 Low 30/Nov/2016 1.2357 Low 23/Nov/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2297 Low 18/Nov/2016 (Bottom) 1.2218 Low 02/Nov/2016 BUY 1.2450 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.2380 1.2540 1.2580
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Rebound breakout 1.0200, hit day high di 1.0204 Short-term resistance di 1.0257 Crucial support di sekitar 1.0100 (Research @ErwinRiset) Nov 30 1.0120 1.0204 1.0108 96 1.0170 55 1.0115 Nov 29 1.0125 1.0177 1.0112 65 1.0115 25 1.0140 Nov 28 1.0140 1.0168 1.0079 89 1.0140 5 1.0145 Nov 25 1.0170 1.0188 1.0100 88 1.0145 25 1.0170 Nov 24 1.0180 1.0191 1.0146 45 1.0170 UNCH 1.0170 1.0204 1.0079 1.0204 0.9551 0.9998 0.9697 1.0257 0.9444 (30/Nov) (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (25/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.0308 High 02/Dec/2015 (Reaction high) 1.0257 High 29/Jan/2016 (Peak) 1.0226 High 02/Feb/2016 1.0204 High 30/Nov/2016 1.0064 Low 22/Nov/2016 (Reaction low) 1.0040 Pivot line 0.9952 Reaction low (1-H chart) 0.9868 Low 14/Nov/2016 BUY 1.0120 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.0050 1.0225 1.0260
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 25/08/2016-06/12/2016 (JAK) 0.7732 0.7734 0.7777 Price 0,77 0.7571 0,765 0,76 EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 0,7486 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 0,7550 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 30/11/2016; 0,7482; 0,7497; 0,7368; 0,7386 @her1en 0.7305 0.7358 0.7497 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 36,250 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -0,0225 Value 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 Agust 16 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Des 16 0,755 0,75 0,745 0,74 0,735 0,73 Koreksi dalam harian Tekanan dekati area level terbawah harian 0.7305 (Research @her1en) Nov 30 0.7485 0.7497 0.7374 123 0.7385 105 0.7490 Nov 29 0.7495 0.7497 0.7433 64 0.7490 15 0.7475 Nov 28 0.7440 0.7494 0.7432 62 0.7475 50 0.7425 Nov 25 0.7410 0.7468 0.7401 67 0.7425 25 0.7400 Nov 24 0.7375 0.7417 0.7365 52 0.7400 15 0.7385 0.7497 0.7374 0.7777 0.7311 0.7734 0.7508 0.7828 0.6828 (29/Nov) (30/Nov) (08/Nov) (21/Nov) (20/Oct) (13/Oct) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7629 High 11/Nov/2016 0.7580 High 15/Nov/2016 0.7502 High 17/Nov/2016 0.7448 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7352 Low Nov 22 0.7302 Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 0.7283 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.7214 Low June 03 BUY ----- SELL 0.7405 STOP LOSS 0.7480 0.7325 0.7295
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 06/09/2016-05/12/2016 (JAK) 0.7485 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 30/11/2016; 0,7123; 0,7169; 0,7065; 0,7084 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 0,7104 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 0,7145 0.7402 0.7307 Price 0,74 0,735 0,73 0.7032 @her1en 0.6968 0.7169 RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 49,286 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -0,0125 Value 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 0,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 0,695 Rangkaian naik level high harian Tapi break area bullish untuk tunjukkan tekanan harian (Research @her1en) Nov 30 0.7135 0.7169 0.7071 98 0.7085 45 0.7130 Nov 29 0.7080 0.7132 0.7067 65 0.7130 60 0.7070 Nov 28 0.7040 0.7103 0.7034 69 0.7070 30 0.7040 Nov 25 0.7000 0.7062 0.6985 77 0.7040 45 0.6995 Nov 24 0.7000 0.7014 0.6972 42 0.6995 10 0.7005 0.7169 0.7034 0.7402 0.6972 0.7310 0.7036 0.7485 0.6348 (30/Nov) (28/Nov) (08/Nov) (24/Nov) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7392 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7307 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7228 High 11/Nov/2016 0.7140 High 14/Nov/2016 0.7020 Low Nov 28 0.6982 Low 26/Jul/2016 0.6949 Low 21/Jul/2016 (Bottom) 0.6891 Reaction low on 1-H chart (June 07, 16) BUY ----- SELL 0.7105 STOP LOSS 0.7170 0.7035 0.7005
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Rebound berlanjut hadapi resistance di 121.50 Waspadai RSI di zona overbought Area support di 118.45 (Research @ErwinRiset) Nov 30 119.75 121.30 119.47 183 121.15 145 119.70 Nov 29 118.65 119.98 118.57 141 119.70 80 118.90 Nov 28 119.60 119.98 118.71 127 118.90 100 119.90 Nov 25 119.60 120.16 119.32 84 119.90 25 119.65 Nov 24 118.65 119.76 118.50 126 119.65 100 118.65 121.30 118.57 121.30 113.75 116.28 112.61 132.25 109.60 (30/Nov) (29/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (06/Oct) (21/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & 124.20 High 31/May/2016 (Reaction high) 123.31 High 01/Jun/2016 122.68 High 07/Jun/2016 (Peak) 121.98 High 24/Jun/2016 (Peak) 120.23 Reaction low (1-H chart) 119.42 Low 30/Nov/2016 118.45 Pivot line 117.67 Low 23/Nov/2016 BUY 120.80 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 120.00 121.65 122.10
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi sedang uji area support di 1.3350 Short-term support di 1.3300 1.3250 Crucial resistance di sekitar 1.3575 (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.3518 1.3422 1.3537 1.3353 1.3588 1.3260 1.3431 1.3002 1.4689 1.2458 (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (14/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (19/Oct) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.3859 High 24/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3734 High 25/Feb/2016 1.3588 High 14/Nov/2016 1.3564 High 18/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3350 Pivot line 1.3220 Low 21/Oct/2016 1.3106 Low 20/Oct/2016 1.3002 Low 19/Oct/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 1.3435 STOP LOSS 1.3575 1.3340 1.3295
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 31/08/2016-06/12/2016 (JAK) 1352.65 1343.64 1328.06 1337.40 Price Ozs 1292.14 1.320 1.300 1.280 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 30/11/2016; 1.188,3199; 1.194,9500; 1.170,3500; 1.173,3100 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 1.217,6518 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 1.244,6761 @her1en 1233.06 1214.93 1170.35 RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 21,440 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -86,3701 Value 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 Ozs September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Des 16 1.260 1.240 1.220 1.200 1.180 1.160 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Pelemahan dalam hourly Perhatikan RSI harian dekati area jenuh jual (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Nov 30 1188.50 1194.95 1171.09 23.86 1173.50 15.00 1188.50 1187.40 1178.10 Nov 29 1194.50 1194.93 1181.37 13.56 1188.50 4.50 1193.00 1187.30 1186.55 Nov 28 1187.00 1197.54 1183.30 14.24 1193.00 12.00 1181.00 1189.10 1187.00 Nov 25 1186.00 1193.21 1171.93 21.28 1181.00 3.00 1184.00 1187.50 1187.70 Nov 24 1189.00 1190.54 1181.51 9.03 1184.00 5.50 1189.50 1187.25 1186.10 1197.54 1171.09 1337.40 1171.09 1319.60 1241.72 1374.91 1062.28 (28/Nov) (30/Nov) (09/Nov) (30/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1217.75 High Nov 18 1214.93 High Nov 23 1195.96 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1184.75 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1170.35 Reaction low on 1- H chart 1167.60 Reaction low on 1- H chart 1163.70 Reaction low on 1- H chart 1144.96 Reaction low on 1- H chart BUY ----- SELL 1176.00 STOP LOSS 1186.00 1164.00 1159.00
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 20.06 19.69 Cndl; XAG=; Bid 30/11/2016; 16,6160; 16,7660; 16,3900; 16,4900 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 16,9828 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 17,4287 18.99 19/09/2016-05/12/2016 (JAK) Price Ozs 19,5 19 18,5 17.08 17.50 16.86 18 17,5 17 16,5 Koreksi dalam harian Perhatikan RSI dekat area jenuh jual (Research @her1en) @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 35,140 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 30/11/2016; -2,0600 Value 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Des 16 16.14 Nov 30 16.57 16.72 16.37 0.35 16.45 0.10 16.55 Nov 29 16.55 16.67 16.37 0.30 16.55 FLAT 16.55 Nov 28 16.46 16.81 16.43 0.38 16.55 0.12 16.44 Nov 25 16.31 16.54 16.12 0.41 16.44 0.15 16.28 Nov 24 16.34 16.36 16.18 0.18 16.28 0.05 16.34 16.81 16.37 18.95 16.12 19.28 17.08 21.10 13.73 (28/Nov) (29/Nov) (09/Nov) (23/Nov) (03/Oct) (06/Oct) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & 17.74 Reaction high on 1-H chart 17.50 High 14/Nov/2016 17.23 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 16.76 Reaction high on 1-H chart 16.39 Reaction low on 1-H chart 16.18 Low 07/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) 15.77 Low 01/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 15.34 Low 11/Apr/2016 BUY ----- SELL 16.60 STOP LOSS 16.85 16.30 16.10
Page 12 of 12 CLF7/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Dec. 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLF7 07/09/2016-05/12/2016 (JAK) Cndl; CLF7; Trade Price 30/11/2016; 45,24; 49,90; 45,22; 49,05 WMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 55 30/11/2016; 47,78 EMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 20 30/11/2016; 47,03 52.74 51.55 49.36 49.20 49.90 Price Bbl 52 51 50 49 @her1en RSI; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 30/11/2016; 61,976 Value Mom; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14 Bbl 30/11/2016; 3,11 Value 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 05 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 42.95 44.82 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Naik untuk dekati level tertinggi 50.42 (Research @her1en) Nov 30 45.22 49.87 45.22 4.65 48.97 3.76 45.21 Nov 29 46.94 46.96 44.82 2.14 45.21 1.65 46.86 Nov 28 45.41 47.63 45.13 2.50 46.86 0.92 45.94 Nov 25 47.96 48.02 45.87 2.15 45.94 2.03 47.97 Nov 24 47.95 48.24 47.79 0.45 47.97 0.04 47.93 49.87 44.82 49.87 42.19 52.20 46.62 51.65 26.04 (30/Nov) (29/Nov) (30/Nov) (14/Nov) (19/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 52.28 High Oct 20 51.55 High Oct 25 50.42 High Oct 28 49.37 High Nov 30 47.86 Reaction low (1-H chart) 46.72 Reaction low (1-H chart) 45.81 Reaction low (1-H chart) 44.38 Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY 48.75 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 47.55 50.25 50.75