Company Note Bank Permata Bloomberg: BNLI:IJ Reuters: BNLI.JK Samuel Research 02 Juni 2017 Target Price Rp 890 Last Price Rp 680 Potential Upside 30.9% JCI Index 5,705 Share Issued (mn) 22,339 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 15,191 52-Weeks High/Low 790/520 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 18.3 Free Float 11% Nominal Value 125 Book value/share 17 Rp 793 Relative to JCI Chart BUY 4 BNLI 2 JCI Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17-2 -4-6 Company Background PT Bank Permata Tbk didirikan pada tahun 2002 sebagai hasil merger dari 5 bank di baw ah pengaw asan Badan Penyehatan Perbankan Nasional (BPPN). Pada tahun 2004, Standard Chartered Bank dan ASII mengambil alih. Shareholder Structure ASII 44.56% Standard Chartered Bank 44.56% Public 10.88% Andy Ferdinand, CFA +62 21 2854 8148 andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id A Turnaround Story Kami melihat saham BNLI memiliki potensi yang besar seiring adanya perbaikan pada NPL dan laba bersihnya serta valuasi yang masih relatif murah. Kami tidak memfaktorkan kemungkinan akuisisi/merger BNLI yang akhir-akhir ini banyak diberitakan di media dan bisa memberikan tambahan upside bagi saham ini. Buy dengan target price Rp 890 (1,1x PBV 2017F). NPL cenderung menurun seiring fokus manajemen memperbaiki kualitas kredit. Kami melihat NPL gross di tahun ini akan mengarah ke (1Q16: 3,, 4Q16: 8,8%, 1Q17: 6,4%) sejalan dengan upaya jajaran manajemen baru melakukan write-off, penjualan bad debt, restrukturisasi kredit, dan pemberian kredit yang lebih selektif. Dengan asumsi coverage ratio yang sedikit lebih tinggi (2016: 121%, 1Q17: 13, 2017F: 12), kami memperkirakan biaya pencadangan akan turun tajam dan mendukung turnaround pada laba bersih di tahun ini (FY16: rugi Rp 6,5triliun, 1Q17: laba Rp 453miliar, FY17F: laba Rp 1,5 triliun). Pelemahan pertumbuhan kredit bersifat sementara. Sejalan dengan langkah-langkah yang diambil manajemen terkait kualitas kredit, pertumbuhan kredit mengalami pelemahan di atas 2yoy pada 1Q17 dengan NIM turun 49bps. Kami melihat hal ini wajar dan bersifat sementara serta akan kembali naik, dimana manajemen akan lebih fokus pada nasabah saat ini yang berkualitas baik, proyek pemerintah dan BUMN, serta perusahaan yang terkait dengan ASII sebagai salah satu induk usahanya. Rights issue akan memperbaiki permodalan. Rights issue Rp 3 triliun di Juni 2017 ini dapat memperkuat permodalan setelah diterjang masalah bad debt terutama di tahun lalu. ASII dan Standard Chartered Bank telah menempatkan masing-masing Rp 750 miliar di akhir tahun lalu sebagai komitmennya mengeksekusi rights-nya. Hal ini juga memperlihatkan komitmen keduanya dalam mengembangkan bank ini. Kinerja diperkirakan kembali positif. Buy. Kami merekomendasikan Buy terhadap saham ini seiring: 1.) Turnaround story dari pembaikan NPL dan laba bersih; 2.) Valuasi yang masih murah (figure 7.); 3.) Tambahan potensi upside dari kemungkinan akuisisi/merger saham BNLI yang belum kami faktorkan dalam report ini. Berdasarkan rata-rata PBV di 1,1x, kami mematok target price Rp 890. Sebuah downside risk-nya adalah perbaikan NPL yang lebih buruk dari ekspektasi. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp680 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Net Interest Income 6,197 5,884 5,056 5,204 Pre Provision Profit 3,972 3,574 3,572 2,799 Net Profit 247-6,483 1,481 1,351 EPS (Rp) 21-290 53 48 DPS (Rp) 14 0 0 0 Dividend Yield (%) 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 BV per Share (Rp) 1,583 864 793 842 P/E Ratio (x) 32.6-2.3 12.9 14.1 P/BV Ratio (x) 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 5
Figure 1. 1Q17 Result (Reported figures) Rpbn 1Q16 4Q16 1Q17 QoQ YoY FY17E Ach. Net Interest Income 1,474 1,402 1,225-12.6% -16.9% 5,056 24% Operating Profit (508) (6,991) 596 NA NA 1,972 3 Pre Provision Profit 1,036 697 1,266 81.6% 22.1% 3,572 3 Net Profit (376) (5,250) 453 NA NA 1,481 31% Bank Only: NIM 3.9% 3.9% 3. BOPO 110.9% 150.8% 87.3% Gross NPL 3. 8.8% 6.4% Figure 2. 1Q17 Loan Composition and Annual Loan Performance 21.3% 12.6% 20. 45.6% Working Capital Consumption Investment Sharia 150 100 50 - Loan, gross (Rptn) 1 1 - -1-1 -2 Figure 3. 1Q17 NPL Composition and Annual NPL Performance 24% 23% 1% 6% 7% 4% 18% 14% 3% Individual loan for consumption Transportation, warehouse, communication Real estate, leasing, services Mining Construction Agriculture Manufacturing Trade 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Others NPL, gross (LHS) Coverage Ratio (RHS) www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5
Figure 4. 1Q17 Customer Deposit Composition and Annual Customer Deposit Performance 53.6% 24.1% 22.3% Current Account Saving Account Time Deposit 150 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 1 1 - -1-1 Customer Deposit (Rptn) Figure 5. 1Q17 Fee-based Income Composition and Annual Performance of Fee-based Income, net 15.7% 7.2% 8. 14.8% 28.6% 25.2% Loan related Bancassurance Debit and credit card fee Admin fee Trade facility Others 1,400 1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 Fee-based Income, net (Rpbn) 2 1 1 - -1 Figure 6. BNLI Brief Profile Tahun berdiri: 2002 (hasil merger dari 5 bank di bawah pengawasan Badan Penyehatan Perbankan Nasional atau BPPN) Jaringan cabang: 331 kantor cabang (termasuk 17 syariah) Jaringan ATM: 1.007 ATM sendiri dan jaringan Alto, Visa Plus, ATM Bersama, Master Card, Cirrus, dan Prima Jumlah karyawan: 8.547 orang Jumlah aset: Rp 165 triliun Peringkat: idaaa (Pefindo), AAA(idn) (Fitch), Baa3 (Moody's) BUKU: III Figure 7. Peer Valuation Market Cap Last Price Current PBV (Rp tn) (Rp) Big Banks BBCA 438 17,750 3.7 BMRI 288 12,350 1.9 BBRI 352 14,250 2.4 BBNI 121 6,500 1.4 Average 2.4 Smaller Banks BNLI 15 680 0.8 BNGA 33 1,295 0.9 MEGA 21 3,000 1.6 PNBN 23 935 0.7 BDMN 51 5,300 1.4 NISP 20 1,705 1.0 BNII 22 318 1.1 BTPN 15 2,510 0.9 BBTN 26 2,490 1.4 Average 1.1 Source: Bloomberg, SSI Research www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5
Key Financial Profit and Loss Key Ratio (estimate figure, slightly different from actual) (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17F 18F 15A 16A 17F 18F Net Interest Income 6,197 5,884 5,056 5,204 Profitability Operating Profit 294 (8,634) 1,972 1,799 NIM 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% Pre Provision Profit 3,972 3,574 3,572 2,799 ROAE 1.4% -34. 7.1% 5.9% Profit before Tax 294 (8,634) 1,972 1,799 ROAA 0.1% -3.7% 0.9% 0.8% Net Profit 247 (6,483) 1,481 1,351 CIR 52.4% 56.2% 56.7% 63.7% BOPO 98.4% 151.8% 87.8% 88.6% Liquidity LDR 89. 81.6% 78.9% 79.4% Balance Sheet CASA Ratio 37.9% 46.6% 48.4% 50. Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17F 18E Cash 2,013 2,071 2,391 2,073 Asset Quality CA and Placement 22,135 20,457 19,779 20,598 Gross NPL 2.8% 9. 5. 4.9% Marketable Sec. 14,909 27,402 28,224 29,071 NPL Coverage 101% 121% 12 12 Gross Loan 129,487 106,372 101,053 109,138 Loan Provision (3,619) (11,590) (6,939) (6,689) Capital Government Bonds 0 3,228 3,389 3,559 CAR 16. 15. 17.8% 17.2% Other Assets 17,764 17,587 18,808 20,284 Total Assets 182,689 165,527 166,706 178,033 Rate Deposits 145,461 130,303 128,042 137,503 Gross Loan -2.9% -17.9% -5. 8. Current Account 29,595 31,334 31,961 35,477 Deposits -1.7% -10.4% -1.7% 7.4% Saving Account 25,524 29,442 30,031 33,334 Net Interest Income 14.1% -5.1% -14.1% 2.9% Time Deposit 90,342 69,527 66,051 68,693 Operating Income -85.6% NA NA -8.8% Deposits fr. Other Banks 2,322 2,661 2,794 2,934 Net Profit -84.4% NA NA -8.8% Securities Issued 672 0 0 0 Other Liabilities 15,422 13,274 13,623 13,998 Macro Total Liabilities 163,877 146,238 144,460 154,436 GDP 4.7% 5.1% 5.2% 5.4% Minority Interest 0 0 0 0 BI RR Rate 4.8% 4.8% 5.3% Total Equity 18,813 19,290 22,246 23,597 USD/IDR, average 13,500 13,650 13,200 12,800 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 5
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148 Rangga Cipta Economist rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396 Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392 Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387 Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339 Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338 Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395 Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325 Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150 Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146 Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173 Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372 Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371 Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 5