Company Update Hanjaya Mandala Bloomberg:HMSP:IJ Reuters: HMSP.JK Samuel Equity Research 31 July 2017 Target Price Rp 4,390 Last Price Rp 3,650 Potential Upside 20.3% JCI Index 5,831 Share isued (bn) 116.32 Market Cap. (Rp tn) 424.56 52-Weeks High/Low 4,250 / 3,600 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 12.47 Free Float 7.5% Nominal Value Rp 4 Book value/share 17 Rp 324 Relative to JCI Chart 120 115 110 105 100 95 BUY (Maintain) JCI Company Background Shareholder Structure HMSP 90 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 PT Hanjaya Mandala Tbk memproduksi hand rolled (SKT) and machinerolled clove-blended cigarettes (SKM). Distribusi produk dilakukan di dalam maupun luar negeri. Perusahaan memiliki pangsa produk SKM dan SKT yang tinggi. Philip Morris Indonesia 92.5% Vontobel Holding 0.6% Others 7.0% Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA +62 21 2854 8144 Akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id Remain positive Laba HMSP masih sesuai dengan estimasi kami, atau mencapai 97.3% dari 1H17E SSI dan 96.3% vs 2Q17E. Pelemahan volume penjualan di periode yang sama -13.2%QoQ, kami anggap masih inline dengan penurunan industri -11.6%YoY. HMSP kami lihat masih akan mampu bertahan ditengah kontinuitas tekanan volume penjualan industri didorong oleh dominasi pangsa pasar pada pasar SKM dan SKT terutama SPM. Nilai premium saham menjadi sebuah hal yang wajar mengingat kekuatan daya saing dan daya tahan HMSP perusahaan di industri. Tetap BUY untuk HMSP dengan 12M DCF TP Rp4,390 (39.5xP/E17E, 12.9xPBV17E). Penurunan kinerja paruh tahun. HMSP membukukan pendapatan dan laba 2Q17 +6.45QoQ, -5.5%YoY dan -16.2%QoQ, -8.9%YoY. Sementara untuk 1H17 pendapatan dan laba masing-masing turun hanya -1.6%YoY. Pelemahan kinerja paruh tahun tersebut telah mendorong marjin laba - 3.1%QoQ menjadi 11.5% dari 14.6% dan stagnan YoY sebesar -0.4%. Kinerja 6M17 yang lebih rendah tersebut kami lihat merupakan hal yang wajar ditengah kontinuitas tekanan volume penjualan yang telah terjadi selama beberapa semester. Kami juga menyimpulkan kemampuan perusahaan menjaga kestabilan marjin hingga 1H17 (13%) merupakan sebuah indikasi serta cerminan daya tahan serta kekuatan bersaing HMSP di tengah pertumbuhan industri yang telah memasuki masa sunset. Pelemahan volume penjualan sebuah hal yang wajar. Demikian pula halnya dengan pelemahan volume penjualan yang dilaporkan sebesar - 13.2%YoY vs -11.6%YoY untuk industri, masih dapat dikatakan inline mengingat terjaganya pangsa pasar HMSP sebesar 32.8%. Dari sisi ASP di periode yang sama juga hanya naik +0.2%QoQ menjadi Rp967 (2Q17) vs Rp965 di 1Q17. Hal ini memberikan ruang gerak perusahaan untuk menaikan ASPnya saat kenaikan cukai tahunan kembali diberlankukan di periode berjalan. Dominasi yang berlanjut. Daya tahan HMSP ditengah tekanan penjualan industri didorong oleh kemampuan menjaga pangsa pasarnya, dimana hingga 1H17 dominasi di seluruh segmen masih terlihat baik untuk SKM, SKT maupun SPM (lihat tabel di halaman 3). Maintain (BUY). Kenaikan ASP, dominasi pasar dan solidnya portfolio produk masih menjadi katalis utama HMSP kedepannya. Resiko investasi antara lain: (1) kontinuitas kenaikan cukai melebihi angka inflasi tahunan (2) penerapan PPN pada seluruh rantai distribusi (3) kontinuitas aktivitas kampanye anti rokok yang akan menekan angka perokok. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp3,650 per share) Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Sales 89,069 95,467 103,021 107,568 EBITDA 14,396 16,795 17,729 18,289 Net Profit 10,363 12,762 12,933 13,382 EPS (Rp/saham) 89 110 111 115 DPS (Rp) 110 66 73 81 Dividend Yield (%) 3.01 1.81 1.99 2.22 BV per share (Rp) 275 294 324 355 EV/EBITDA (x) 33.58 28.58 27.04 26.22 P/E Ratio (x) 41.0 33.3 32.8 31.73 P/BV Ratio (x) 13.3 12.4 11.3 10.27 www.samuel.co.id
Figure 1. HMSP 1H17 result Rpbn 2Q16 1Q17 2Q17 QoQ YoY 1H16 1H17 YoY Sales 25.415 22.576 24.014 6,4 (5,5) 47.336 46.590 (1,6) COGS (19.507) (16.769) (18.425) 9,9 (5,5) (35.775) (35.194) (1,6) Gross profit 5.908 5.807 5.589 (3,8) (5,4) 11.561 11.396 (1,4) SG&A (2.146) (1.645) (2.112) 28,4 (1,6) (3.878) (3.757) (3,1) Operating profit 3.762 4.162 3.477 (16,5) (7,6) 7.684 7.639 (0,6) Pre-tax profit 4.023 4.348 3.670 (15,6) (8,8) 8.175 8.018 (1,9) Income taxes (994) (1.057) (911) (13,9) (8,4) (2.027) (1.967) (2,9) Core Profit 2.758 3.120 2.533 (18,8) (8,1) 5.712 5.653 (1,0) Net income (loss) 3.029 3.291 2.759 (16,2) (8,9) 6.148 6.050 (1,6) EPS (Rp) 53 28 52 83,8 (1,6) 53 52 (1,6) Margin Gross margin 23,2 25,7 23,3 (2,4) 0,0 24,4 24,5 0,0 Operating margin 14,8 18,4 14,5 (4,0) (0,3) 16,2 16,4 0,2 Net margin 11,9 14,6 11,5 (3,1) (0,4) 13,0 13,0 (0,0) Figure 2. HMSP - Forward P/E Band 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PE - Forward ST dev +2 ST dev -2 www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5
Figure 3. Industry and HMSP sales volume Indonesia and PMI sales volume 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 QoQ YoY Total industry (bn sticks) 75,2 85,6 72,3 80,5 71,0 75,7 6,6% -11,6% PMI sales vol (bn sticks) 25,1 28,6 25,1 26,7 23,4 24,8 6,1% -13,2% PMI estimated ASP 872 889 914 942 965 967 0,2% 8,8% PMI segmen sales vol (bn stick) 35,2% A 10,8 11,9 10,4 11,3 9,9 10,6 7,4% -10,9% Dji Sam Soe 5,0 5,5 4,8 5,2 4,5 4,8 8,3% -11,6% U Mild 3,4 4,5 3,1 3,1 3,6 3,6 0,2% -20,1% Others 6,1 6,8 6,8 7,2 5,5 5,8 5,3% -13,8% Total 25,2 28,6 25,1 26,7 23,4 24,8 6,0% -13,2% PMI Cigarette M/S (%) A 14,3% 13,9% 14,4% 14,0% 13,9% 14,0% 0,1% 0,1% Dji Sam Soe 6,6% 6,4% 6,6% 6,4% 6,3% 6,4% 0,1% 0,0% U Mild 4,5% 5,2% 4,3% 3,9% 5,0% 4,7% -0,3% -0,5% Others 8,1% 7,9% 9,4% 8,9% 7,8% 7,7% -0,1% -0,2% PMI - Total 33,5% 33,4% 34,7% 33,2% 33,0% 32,8% -0,2% -0,6% Industry sales vol (bn sticks) Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT 14,1 15,7 12,4 14,7 12,9 13,2 1,9% -15,9% Machine-Made Kretek - SKM 56,6 64,5 55,5 61,3 54,2 58,4 7,7% -9,6% Whites Cigarette - SPM 4,5 5,4 4,4 4,5 3,9 4,2 6,6% -22,8% Total SKT, SKM and SPM 75,2 85,6 72,3 80,5 71,0 75,7 6,6% -11,6% Industry segment M/S (%) - - Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT 18,8% 18% 17,2% 18,2% 18,2% 17,4% -0,8% -0,9% Machine-Made Kretek - SKM 75,2% 75% 76,7% 76,2% 76,3% 77,1% 0,8% 1,7% Whites Cigarette - SPM 6,0% 6% 6,1% 5,6% 5,5% 5,5% 0,0% -0,8% Total SKT, SKM and SPM 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 0,0% 0,0% PMI M/S vs industry segment (%) Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT 38,1% 36,5% 38,6% 37,8% 38,0% 36,2% -1,8% -0,3% Machine-Made Kretek - SKM 28,5% 28,7% 30,2% 29,0% 28,6% 29,1% 0,5% 0,4% Whites Cigarette - SPM 81,3% 80,7% 79,7% 76,3% 76,5% 73,4% -3,1% -7,3% PMI sales vol vs industry (bn sticks) Hand-Rolled Kretek - SKT 5,4 5,7 4,8 5,5 4,9 4,8-2,9% -16,6% Machine-Made Kretek - SKM 16,1 18,5 16,8 17,8 15,5 17,0 9,6% -8,3% Whites Cigarette - SPM 3,7 4,4 3,5 3,4 3,0 3,1 2,3% -29,8% Total SKT, SKM and SPM 25,2 28,6 25,1 26,8 23,4 24,8 6,1% -13,2% www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5
Key Financials Profit and Loss Statement Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 89,069 95,467 103,021 107,568 Net Income 10,363 12,762 12,933 13,382 COGS (67,305) (71,612) (77,325) (80,904) Dep. & Amort. 440 616 687 748 Gross profit 21,764 23,855 25,697 26,665 Chg Working Cap 216 (2,662) (2,341) (2,591) Gross margin (%) 24.4 25.0 24.9 24.8 Others (10,206) 3,360 (3,601) (3,523) Operating profit 13,956 16,179 17,042 17,542 Operating CF 814 14,077 7,678 8,015 Operating margin (%) 15.7 16.9 16.5 16.3 Capex 971 1,209 1,388 1,177 EBITDA 14,396 16,795 17,729 18,289 Investing CF (4,537) (362) 1,234 1,129 EBITDA margin (%) 16.2 17.6 17.2 17.0 Change in Capital 20,414 (19) 30 - Other Income (Expens (23) 832 301 408 Others (15,037) (10,358) (8,302) (9,325) Pre-tax profit 13,933 17,011 17,343 17,949 Financing CF 5,377 (10,377) (8,272) (9,325) Income tax - net (3,569) (4,249) (4,410) (4,568) Net Cash Flow 1,653 3,337 639 (180) Net profit 10,363 12,762 12,933 13,382 Cash Beginning 65 1,719 5,056 5,696 Net profit margin (%) 11.6 13.4 12.6 12.4 Cash Ending 1,718 5,056 5,696 5,515 11,876-6.94% -100.00% Profit and Loss Statement Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E Cash & ST Investment 1,719 5,056 5,696 5,515 ROE 32.4 37.3 34.3 32.4 Receivables 4,727 4,996 5,392 5,737 ROA 27.3 30.0 27.7 26.4 Inventories 19,072 19,442 21,765 24,985 Revenue Growth (%) 10.4 7.2 7.9 4.4 Others 4,290 4,153 4,115 4,296 EBITDA (%) 1.8 16.7 5.6 3.2 Total Current Assets 29,807 33,647 36,967 40,533 EPS Growth (%) 1.8 23.1 1.3 3.5 Net fixed assets 6,887 7,481 8,182 8,611 Interest coverage (x) 100.8 724.7 208.9 189.6 Other assets 1,317 1,380 1,535 1,583 Debt to Equity (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Assets 38,011 42,508 46,684 50,727 Net Gearing (%) -0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1 Payables 3,605 5,504 5,940 6,202 ST. debt & curr. Mat - - - - Major Assumptions Other current liabilities 934 924 997 1,041 Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E LT. debt 41 66 71 74 GDP growth (%) 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 Other long term liabilitie 1,415 1,839 1,985 2,072 USD/IDR (average) 13,500 13,253 13,200 12,800 Total Liabilities 5,995 8,333 8,993 9,390 Vol Sales (bn stick) 109.8 105.5 102.5 97.4 Total Equity 32,016 34,175 37,691 41,337 ASP (Rp) 810.9 904.7 1,005.4 1,103.9 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 5
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148 Rangga Cipta Economist rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396 Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392 Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387 Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339 Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338 Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395 Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325 Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150 Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146 Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173 Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372 Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371 Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 5