Company Update Bloomberg: RALS.IJ Reuters: RALS.JK Samuel Equity Research Still Sluggish RALS telah mengeluarkan laporan keuangan 1Q16, dan pada periode ini, kinerja secara keseluruhan tercatat kurang memuaskan, dengan penjualan hanya tercatat Rp1.09 triliun (1Q15: Rp1.12 triliun) dan laba bersih juga hanya tercatat sebesar Rp9.0 miliar, di bawah eskpektasi kami dan konsensus, meskipun angka tersebut naik dari periode yang sama tahun lalu (1Q15: Rp5.5 miliar). Kami melihat, daya beli masyarakat terutama di luar pulau Jawa yang belum sepenuhnya pulih menjadi penyebab utama belum membaiknya kinerja RALS. Dengan strategi yang kurang ekspansif dan ekonomi Indonesia yang belum menunjukkan tanda-tanda perbaikan secara signifikan, kami mengurangi target rata rata pertumbuhan penjualan untuk 16E menjadi 3.5%YoY (perkiraan sebelumnya: 4.5%YoY). Tetap HOLD untuk RALS dengan TP Rp700/lembar saham. Kinerja 1Q16 di bawah estimasi. Untuk 1Q16 ini, RALS mengalami penurunan penjualan bersih sebesar 3%YoY (1Q16: Rp1.09 triliun vs 1Q15: Rp1.12 triliun). Capaian tersebut relatif in-line, meskipun hanya mencapai 18.9% dan 19.2% dari estimasi kami dan konsensus untuk total penjualan 16E, karena secara historis, pada umumnya penjualan bersih pada kuartal pertama hanya mampu mencapai ±18% dari total proyeksi penjualan untuk setahun. Sementara itu, laba bersih berada di bawah estimasi kami dan konsensus (hanya 2.7% terhadap total proyeksi laba bersih 16E), meskipun strategi perusahaan untuk memperbesar porsi barang konsinyasi berhasil meningkatkan gross profit margin dan net profit margin sebesar 440 bps dan 30bps. Dengan strategi perusahaan yang tetap konservatif dan daya beli masyarakat yang belum sepenuhnya pulih, untuk tahun ini kami mengurangi target pertumbuhan penjualan menjadi 3.5%YoY (proyeksi sebelumnya: 4.5%YoY), sementara kami memprediksi SSSG hanya akan berkisar 0.6% pada 16E. Masih mempertahankan rekomendasi HOLD. All in all, kami menilai kinerja fundamental RALS masih belum dapat menunjukkan perbaikan yang signifikan terutama untuk tahun ini, jika dilihat dari segi: 1). Kurang agresifnya pembukaan toko baru, 2). Konversi bisnis supermarket ke bawah naungan SPAR yang membutuhkan jangka waktu yang panjang agar dapat memberikan dampak positif 3). Masih rendahnya harga komoditas di Pulau Jawa, 4). Capaian kinerja perusahaan yang kurang memuaskan sampai 1Q16. HOLD (TP: Rp700/lembar saham, 16E PE: 13.8x, PBV: 1.4x). Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp690 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) 14A 15E 16E 17E Revenue 5,861 5,533 5,729 6,025 EBITDA 490 367 387 413 Net Profit 355 335 361 387 EPS (Rp) 50 47 51 55 DPS (Rp) 30 27 24 25 Dividend Yield (%) 4.3 3.9 3.4 3.7 BV per Share (Rp) 473 470 496 525 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.3 9.2 9.2 7.8 P/E Ratio (x) 13.8 14.6 13.6 12.6 P/BV Ratio (x) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report. 3 May 2016 Target Price Rp 700 Last Price Rp 690 Potential Upside 1% JCI Index 4,812 Share isued (bn) 7.10 Market Cap. (Rp tn) 4.90 52-Weeks High/Low 490/845 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 0.00 Free Float 42.4% Nominal Value Rp 100 Book value/share 16 Relative to JCI Chart 160 140 120 100 Company Background Shareholder Structure HOLD (Maintain) JCI RALS Marlene Tanumihardja +62 21 2854 8387 marlene@samuel.co.id Rp496 80 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 PT is an Indonesianbased retail chain operator catering the needs of low er to low er-middle market. The company operates more than 100 stores know n as Ramayana, Robinson and Cahaya. Ramayana Makmursentosa 55.9% Paulus Tumew u 3.7% Public 40.5% Page 1 of 6
No. of Stores Tuesday, 03 May 2016 RALS.IJ / RALS.JK Figure 1. SSSG Performance (YTD March 16) 15.0% 12.2% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 5.5% 3.6% 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% Jan'16 Feb'16 March'16-1.9% -3.0%-2.8% -4.1% -5.1% -6.6% National Greater Jakarta Rest of Java Outer Java Source: Company Figure 2. Product Mix Breakdown (By Sales) 102% 100% 98% 96% 94% 92% 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 8% 12% 88% 92% 1Q16 1Q15 Outright Consignment Source: Company Figure 3. Store Expansions 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Total Stores % stores growth (RHS) Source: Company, SSI estimates www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 6
Tuesday, 03 May 2016 RALS.IJ / RALS.JK Figure 4. Quarterly Performance (in Rp bn) 4Q15 1Q16 QoQ 1Q16 1Q15 YoY 1Q16/'16E 1Q16/'16Cons Sales 1,267 1,086-14.3% 1,086 1,120-3.0% 18.9% 19.2% COGS 840 692-17.6% 692 763-9.3% Gross Profit 427 394-7.7% 394 357 10.4% 19.1% 18.9% Total Operating Expense (415) (410) -1.2% (410) (390) 5.1% Selling Expense (102) (88) -13.7% (88) (84) 4.8% G&A Expense (313) (322) 2.9% (322) (306) 5.2% Operating Profit 12 (16) N/A (16) (33) -51.5% -6.3% -5.3% Non-Operating Income (expense) 13 21 52.4% 21 37-43.8% Pre-tax Income 25 5-82.3% 5 4 28.6% Tax 7 4-46.2% 4 2 200.0% Net Income 33 9-74.2% 9 5.5 54.5% 2.7% 2.7% EPS Profitability Gross margin 33.7% 36.3% -2.6% 36.3% 31.9% 4.4% Operating margin 0.9% -1.5% 2.4% -1.5% -2.9% 1.5% Pre-tax margin 2.0% 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Net margin 2.6% 0.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% Source: Company, SSI estimates www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 6
Tuesday, 03 May 2016 RALS.IJ / RALS.JK Key Financials Profit and Loss Cash Flow Rp bn 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Revenue 5,861 5,533 5,728 5,988 Net income 355 335 355 369 COGS (3,813) (3,537) (3,649) (3,803) Depreciation & amort. 197 133 137 144 Gross profit 2,048 1,996 2,079 2,186 Others 0 0 0 1 Gross margin (%) 34.9 36.1 36.3 36.5 Working capital 63 32 (203) (73) Operating profit 294 234 249 267 Operating cash flow 615 499 289 441 Operating margin (%) 5.0 4.2 4.3 4.5 Net - Capital expenditure (127) (90) (332) (277) EBITDA 490 367 386 411 Investing cash flow (53) (17) (260) (291) EBITDA margin (%) 8.4 6.6 6.7 6.9 Net - Borrowings 0 0 0 0 Other income (expenses) 95 130 167 166 Other financing (183) (315) (133) (138) Pre-tax profit 388 364 416 433 Financing cash flow (183) (315) (133) (138) Income tax - net (33) (29) (61) (63) Net - Cash flow 379 175 (112) 11 Net profit 355 335 355 369 Cash at beginning 1,273 1,653 1,828 1,716 Net profit margin (%) 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 Cash at ending 1,652 1,828 1,716 1,727 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Cash & ST Investment 1,653 1,828 1,716 1,727 ROE (%) 11.6 10.7 9.5 9.6 Receivables 23 35 45 55 ROA (%) 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.3 Inventories 809 824 1,081 1,130 Revenue growth (%) -26.4-5.6 3.5 4.5 Others 210 145 156 160 EBITDA growth (%) -14.9-25.2 5.2 6.4 Total current assets 2,695 2,832 2,998 3,072 EPS growth (%) -9.1-5.7 5.9 4.1 Net fixed assets 1,375 1,333 1,527 1,661 Interest coverage (x) n/a n/a n/a n/a Other assets 485 411 339 353 Debt to equity (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a Total assets 4,555 4,576 4,865 5,086 Net gearing (%) n/a n/a n/a n/a Payables 889 900 960 951 ST. debt and curr. maturity 0 0 0 0 Major Assumptions Other current liabilities 79 61 75 75 14A 15A 16E 17E LT. debt 0 0 0 0 SSSG (%) -1.5-2.8 0.6 1.7 Other long term liabilities 228 280 315 354 Store area ('000 sqm) 989 994 1,023 1,052 Total liabilities 1,195 1,241 1,350 1,380 Inventory days 79 83 68 68 Total equity 3,359 3,334 3,514 3,706 Inflation Rate (%) 8.3 3.0 4.5 5.5 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 6
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DISCLAIMERS Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. www.samuel.co.id Page 6 of 6