Company Update Indosat Bloomberg: ISAT:IJ Reuters: ISAT.JK Samuel Equity Research 25 April 2017 Target Price Rp 8,200 Last Price Rp 7,225 Potential Upside 13.5% JCI Index 5,664 Share Issued (mn) 5,434 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 39,260 52-Weeks High/Low 7,150/ 5,150 Avg Daily Vol 294,062 Free Float 21% Nominal Value 100 EPS 2016 Rp 203 Relative to JCI Chart 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% -40% BUY (Maintain) ISAT IJ Equity JCI Index 0% Jan-15-20% Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Company Background PT Indosat Ooredoo Tbk beroperasi di bidang telekomunikasi yang meliputi layanan telepon selular dan layanan data atau Multimedia, Internet & Data communication. Saat ini perseroan sedang mengkampanyekan REBORN sebagai brand identity terbaru. Shareholder Structure Republik Indonesia 14.0% Ooredoo Asia 65.0% Public 21.0% Arandi Ariantara +62 21 2854 8148 arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id Enjoying online transportation boon Pertumbuhan pelanggan prabayar sebesar 30,6 juta sejak maraknya transportasi online di 3Q14 kami lihat menjadi katalis lompatan trafik data ISAT. Kombinasi ARPU terjangkau dan promo data rollover kami yakini menjadi ujung tombak ISAT memonetisasi pertumbuhan pelanggan prabayar. BUY dengan TP Rp 8.200, potensi upside +13%. Lompatan trafik data didukung oleh tambahan 30,6 juta pelanggan prabayar. Trafik data ISAT di FY16 melonjak sebesar 147% yoy, dimana kami sinyalir, salah satunya merupakan imbas dari maraknya pengguna ataupun driver transportasi online. Sejak kemunculan transportasi online di mid- 2014, pelanggan pra-bayar ISAT telah bertambah 30,6 juta (3Q14 4Q16). Penambahan ini lebih besar 34% dibanding periode 1Q10 2Q14. Kombinasi ARPU prabayar terjangkau dan promo data rollover,... Promo data rollover (sisa kuota bisa digunakan di bulan berikutnya) serta dengan Average Revenue per User (ARPU) prabayar ISAT sebesar Rp 24 ribu, terendah dibanding peers (TLKM: Rp 42 ribu, EXCL: Rp 34 ribu), ISAT berpotensi memonetisasi pelanggan prabayar lebih banyak dibanding peers. menjadi katalis penambahan pelanggan prabayar kedepannya. Masih berkembangnya transportasi online memberi potensi semakin besarnya penetrasi pengguna data (data user) di Indonesia. Secara konservatif, kami mengestimasikan pelanggan ISAT bertambah 7 juta menjadi sebesar 92 juta dimana sekitar 53% merupakan pengguna data. Pendapatan data 2017 kami estimasi tumbuh 47% yoy. Kami mengestimasikan pendapatan data ISAT di 2017 dapat tumbuh 47% yoy ke Rp 15,2 triliun, seiring dengan asumsi kenaikan trafik data sebesar 20% serta berakhirnya perang tarif. Kami memakai asumsi tarif data 2017 sebesar Rp 1.000/MB/bulan/user, naik 18% yoy. Laba bersih kami prediksi tumbuh 79% yoy. Manajemen berencana memangkas porsi hutang US$. Kami proyeksikan laba bersih ISAT 17E dapat tumbuh 79% yoy ke Rp 1,9 triliun. Sementara rencana manajemen untuk mengecilkan porsi hutang US$ menjadi sebesar 5% (FY16: 12%), mengurangi resiko nilai tukar mata uang di 2017. Mempertahankan BUY dan merevisi TP Rp 8.200. Positioning tepat menyasar pengguna prabayar, menjadi katalis revisi TP kami menjadi Rp 8.200 (sebelumnya Rp 7.200), TP ini merefleksikan potensi upside sebesar 13%. BUY. Resiko investasi: perang tarif yang menyasar pasar prabayar. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp7,225 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp Bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Operating Revenue 26,769 29,185 32,581 35,355 EBIT 2,362 3,941 4,603 5,250 EBITDA 11,131 12,913 14,456 15,619 Net Profit (1,310) 1,105 1,978 2,760 EPS (Rp) (241) 203 364 508 BVPS (Rp) 2,297 2,457 2,719 3,045 DPS (Rp) - - 102 182 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.2 4.4 3.6 3.0 P/E Ratio (x) (30) 36 20 14 P/BV Ratio (x) 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.4 Net Gearing (x) 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.5 www.samuel.co.id
Figure 1. Aplikasi transportasi online (Sumber: SSI Research) Figure 2. Akumulasi pelanggan prabayar dan trafik data (juta pelanggan) 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 - (2.0) 20,911 9.0 1 April 2016: Terbitnya Permen Perhubungan No. 32/2016 3.3 2.0 55,871 57,276 63,987 39,880 46,027 29,891 0.5 0.8-3Q14 (0.7) 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 10.7 93,641 1.1 146,060 3.9 (Tb) 220,000 188,101 170,000 120,000 70,000 20,000 (30,000) Net Additions Data usage (Sumber: Perseroan, SSI Research) www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 6
Figure 3. Data rollover promo Source: SSI research Figure 4. ARPU Prepaid vs peers Sumber: Perseroan, SSI Research www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 6
Figure 5. Pendapatan dan pelanggan, 2015 2018E (Rp triliun) 40 35 32.6 29.2 91.9 30 26.8 84.7 25 69.0 35.4 99.1 (juta) 110 100 90 80 70 20 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 60 Pendapatan Pelanggan Source: Company, SSI research Figure 6. Laba bersih, 2015 2018E (Rp triliun) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-1.3 Source: Company, SSI Research 1.1 2015 2016 2017E 2018E Figure 7. Perbandingan 2G/3G coverage operator telco Operator Total frekuensi Wilayah populasi Coverage 2G Coverage 2G Coverage 3G Coverage 3G (MHz) (km2) (km2) (%) (km2) (%) TLKM 110,512 1,121,226 1,008,000 90 619,000 55 ISAT 52,326 1,121,226 559,000 50 525,000 47 EXCL 59,040 1,121,226 665,000 59 211,000 19 Source: TLKM, Bisnis Indonesia, SSI Research 2.0 2.8 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 6
Key Financial Profit and Loss Cash Flow Rp bn 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Cellular revenue 21,896 24,095 27,062 29,388 Net profit (1,310) 1,105 1,978 2,760 Operating Revenue 26,769 29,185 32,581 35,355 Depreciation & amort. 8,769 8,973 9,853 10,369 Operating Expenses 24,406 25,244 27,978 30,105 Working capital 806 (326) 409 306 Operating profit 2,362 3,941 4,603 5,250 Operating cash flow 8,265 9,752 12,240 13,434 EBITDA 11,131 12,913 14,456 15,619 Net - Capital expenditure (9,186) (5,131) (6,112) (8,000) EBITDA margin (%) 41.6 44.2 44.4 44.2 Investing cash flow (7,145) (7,291) (6,112) (8,000) Other income (exp.) (4,148) (2,145) (1,754) (1,351) Net - Borrowings 9 (3,968) (3,698) (3,673) Pre-tax profit (1,786) 1,795 2,849 3,899 Other financing (1,094) (283) (341) (989) Income tax - net 622 (520) (712) (975) Financing cash flow (1,085) (4,251) (4,039) (4,662) Minority interest (147) (171) (159) (165) Net - Cash flow 34 (1,791) 2,089 772 Net profit (1,310) 1,105 1,978 2,760 Cash at beginning 3,480 3,623 1,850 3,940 Net profit margin (%) (4.9) 3.8 6.1 7.8 Cash at ending 3,514 1,832 3,940 4,712 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Cash & ST Investment 3,701 1,959 3,940 4,712 ROE (%) -10.5 8.3 13.4 16.7 Receivables 2,730 2,707 3,022 3,280 ROA (%) -2.4 2.2 4.0 5.8 Inventories 39 79 88 95 Revenue growth (%) 9.0 11.6 8.5 0.0 Others 3,448 3,328 3,328 3,328 EBITDA growth (%) 25.5 16.0 11.9 8.0 Total current assets 9,919 8,073 10,378 11,414 EPS growth (%) na na 79.0 39.5 Net fixed assets 41,822 39,078 35,254 32,904 Interest coverage (x) 0.8 1.7 2.9 4.0 Other fixed assets 3,648 3,687 3,667 3,648 Debt to equity (%) 180.2 141.7 111.4 77.3 Total assets 55,389 50,839 49,299 47,966 Net gearing (%) 150.6 127.0 84.8 48.8 Payables 764 845 937 1,008 ST. debt and curr. matu 7,586 8,366 4,626 3,784 Major Assumptions Other current liabilities 11,703 9,875 10,516 11,014 15A 16A 17E 18E LT. debt 20,057 15,309 15,351 12,520 Subscriber (Mn users) 69.0 84.7 91.9 99.1 Other long term liabilitie 22,067 21,353 18,345 18,073 ARPU blended (Rp/month) 26 25 24 24 Total liabilities 42,125 36,662 33,696 30,593 BTS 50,687 56,483 63,483 70,483 Minority initerest 781 827 827 827 Total equity 12,483 13,350 14,776 16,546 www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 6
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia www.samuel.co.id Page 6 of 6