z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK AS & Global Markets: Ketiga indeks utama Wall Street ditutup di level rekor tertinggi untuk 2 hari berturut-turut pada hari Selasa, sementara saham Eropa juga menguat oleh ekspektasi bahwa pasar dunia akan diuntungkan oleh kebijakan presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump. Kenaikan moderat memicu Dow ditutup di atas 19000 dan S&P 500 berakhir di atas 2200 untuk pertama kalinya, sementara Nasdaq dan small-cap Russell 2000 juga tembus level rekor penutupan tertingginya untuk dua hari berturut-turut. Minyak masih bergerak fluktuatif jelang sidang OPEC di Wina, Austria, pada 30 November mendatang. menguat terhadap yen setelah tembus intraday high di 111.35 yen, hanya sedikit di bawah level tertinggi hampir 6 tahun yang dicapai hari Senin di 111.36 yen, menyusul data AS menunjukkan peningkatan pada existing home sales bulan lalu. Sementara harga emas menurun seiring berkurangnya minat pada aset safe-haven. Weekahead: Pekan ini Menteri Keuangan Inggris Philip Hammond akan menawarkan rencana perusahaan dan pandangan pada ekonomi Inggris yang sedang mempersiapkan diri untuk pembicaraan Brexit dengan Autumn Statement kepada parlemen pada Rabu. Tidak lagi mencari surplus anggaran oleh 2019/20, pemerintah Inggris akan mengumumkan penambahan belanja untuk jalan dan kereta api. Di benua Eropa, data Ifo Business Jerman akan dicermati yang kemungkinan cukup stabil yang tidak berubah dari level tertinggi 2-1/2 tahun yang dicapai di bulan Oktober. Indeks PMI sektor manufaktur dan jasa juga akan dicermati yang diharapkan untuk menunjukkan kelanjutan dari pertumbuhan moderat di seluruh Eropa setelah terguncang pasca-brexit. Kebanyakan negara besar akan menunggu sampai Desember untuk panel pengaturan suku bunga bank sentral mereka. Komite kebijakan moneter akan berlangsung di Hongaria, Afrika Selatan dan Turki pekan ini, meskipun tidak terlihat akan adanya perubahan suku bunga. Rabu 23 November 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 07:30 AU Construction Work Done* Q3-1.7 % -3.7 15:30 DE Markit Manufacturing Flash PMI Nov 54.7 ind 55.0 19:30 US Build Permits R Number MM Oct N/A m 1.229 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 250 k 235 20:30 US Durable Goods Oct 1.5 % -0.3 20:30 US Non defense Cap Ex-Air Oct 0.4 % -1.3 21:00 US Monthly Home Price MM Sep N/A % 0.7 21:45 US Markit Mfg PMI Flash Nov 53.4 ind 53.4 22:00 US U Michigan Sentiment Final Nov 91.6 ind 91.6 22:00 US New Home Sales-Units Oct 0.593 m 0.593 22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -0.250 m 5.274 22:30 US EIA Weekly Distilled Stocks w/e -0.750 m 0.310 All Day JP Labour Thanksgiving Day/Bank Holiday Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 17/08/2016-28/11/2016 (JAK) 1.1365 1.1326 1.1278 1.1234 1.1299 Price 1,13 1,12 Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 22,992 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 22/11/2016; 1,0625; 1,0658; 1,0581; 1,0625 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 1,0820 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 1,0944 @her1en 1.0567 1.0816 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 1,07 1,06 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Rangkaian naik level high harian Perhatikan RSI dekat area jenuh jual (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -0,0469 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 Nov 22 1.0635 1.0658 1.0585 73 1.0625 FLAT 1.0625 Nov 21 1.0580 1.0649 1.0580 69 1.0625 30 1.0595 Nov 18 1.0625 1.0642 1.0570 72 1.0595 30 1.0625 Nov 17 1.0705 1.0745 1.0619 126 1.0625 65 1.0690 Nov 16 1.0725 1.0759 1.0667 92 1.0690 40 1.0730 1.0658 1.0580 1.1299 1.0570 1.1243 1.0851 1.1614 1.0570 (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (25/Oct) (03/May) (18/Nov) ANALYSIS & 1.0954 High 10/Nov/2016 1.0849 High 14/Nov/2016 1.0745 High 17/Nov/2016 1.0682 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0576 Low Nov 21 1.0538 Low 03/Dec/2015 (Bottom) 1.0529 Low 14/Apr/2015 1.0519 Low 13/Apr/2015 (Bottom) BUY 1.0600 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1.0535 1.0670 1.0700
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Reli tertahan di sekitar area 111.35 (Horizontal resistance) RSI sudah overbought Short-term support di sekitar 110 109 (Research @ErwinRiset) Nov 22 110.70 111.35 110.28 107 111.05 15 110.90 Nov 21 111.10 111.36 110.46 90 110.90 15 110.75 Nov 18 110.20 110.92 109.81 111 110.75 80 109.95 Nov 17 108.85 110.02 108.56 146 109.95 85 109.10 Nov 16 109.00 109.75 108.81 94 109.10 5 109.15 111.36 110.28 111.36 101.20 105.53 101.22 121.68 99.11 (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & 113.80 High 29/Mar/2016 112.58 High 01/Apr/2016 111.90 High 25/Apr/2016 (Peak) 111.43 High 30/May/2016 (Peak) 110.23 Low 22/Nov/2016 109.76 Low 18/Nov/2016 108.51 Low 17/Nov/2016 107.74 Low 15/Nov/2016 BUY ---- SELL 111.20 STOP LOSS 111.80 110.05 109.65
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Koreksi hadapi trendline support di sekitar 1.2330 Formasi symmetrical triangle berpotensi batasi pergerakan Short-term support di sekitar 1.2297 (Research @ErwinRiset) Nov 22 1.2495 1.2512 1.2385 127 1.2415 75 1.2490 Nov 21 1.2325 1.2511 1.2312 199 1.2490 130 1.2360 Nov 18 1.2410 1.2436 1.2303 133 1.2360 65 1.2425 Nov 17 1.2440 1.2505 1.2410 95 1.2425 10 1.2435 Nov 16 1.2450 1.2502 1.2412 90 1.2435 20 1.2455 1.2512 1.2312 1.2673 1.2207 1.2946 1.1885 1.5018 1.1885 (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (11/Nov) (01/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (24/Jun) (07/Oct) ANALYSIS & 1.2771 High 05/Oct/2016 1.2673 High 11/Nov/2016 1.2612 High 14/Nov/2016 1.2512 High 22/Nov/2016 1.2297 Low 18/Nov/2016 (Bottom) 1.2218 Low 02/Nov/2016 1.2141 Low 31/Oct/2016 1.2112 Low 28/Oct/2016 BUY 1.2350 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.2270 1.2435 1.2480
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Masih menguji area 1.0090 RSI sudah overbought Short-term support di 1.0040 (Research @ErwinRiset) Nov 22 1.0080 1.0134 1.0069 65 1.0115 25 1.0090 Nov 21 1.0110 1.0116 1.0076 40 1.0090 10 1.0100 Nov 18 1.0075 1.0124 1.0061 63 1.0100 30 1.0070 Nov 17 1.0010 1.0077 0.9992 85 1.0070 45 1.0025 Nov 16 1.0020 1.0057 0.9984 73 1.0025 15 1.0010 1.0134 1.0069 1.0134 0.9551 0.9998 0.9697 1.0257 0.9444 (22/Nov) (22/Nov) (22/Nov) (09/Nov) (25/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.0308 High 02/Dec/2015 (Reaction high) 1.0257 High 29/Jan/2016 (Peak) 1.0226 High 02/Feb/2016 1.0197 High 03/Feb/2016 1.0055 Low 18/Nov/2016 0.9952 Reaction low (1-H chart) 0.9868 Low 14/Nov/2016 0.9816 Low 10/Nov/2016 BUY ---- SELL 1.0125 STOP LOSS 1.0200 1.0035 1.0005
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 02/09/2016-25/11/2016 (JAK) 7732 0.7734 0.7777 Price 0,77 0,765 0,76 EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 0,7531 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 0,7583 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 22/11/2016; 0,7368; 0,7413; 0,7352; 0,7394 0.7504 0.7555 @her1en 0.7305 0.7502 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 30,962 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -0,0264 Value 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 0,755 0,75 0,745 0,74 0,735 0,73 Terjadi koreksi dalam harian Dapat break area bearish trend channel harian (Research @her1en) Nov 22 0.7375 0.7413 0.7359 54 0.7400 35 0.7365 Nov 21 0.7320 0.7382 0.7311 71 0.7365 25 0.7340 Nov 18 0.7400 0.7418 0.7331 87 0.7340 75 0.7415 Nov 17 0.7490 0.7502 0.7397 105 0.7415 60 0.7475 Nov 16 0.7555 0.7571 0.7461 110 0.7475 85 0.7560 0.7413 0.7311 0.7777 0.7311 0.7734 0.7508 0.7828 0.6828 (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (08/Nov) (21/Nov) (20/Oct) (13/Oct) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7629 High 11/Nov/2016 0.7580 High 15/Nov/2016 0.7502 High 17/Nov/2016 0.7422 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7352 Low Nov 22 0.7302 Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 0.7283 Low 16/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 0.7199 Low 02/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 0.7375 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7310 0.7445 0.7475
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 06/09/2016-25/11/2016 (JAK) 0.7485 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 22/11/2016; 0,7063; 0,7085; 0,7028; 0,7064 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 0,7141 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 0,7175 0.7402 0.7307 Price 0,74 0,735 0,73 0.7032 @her1en 0.7143 0.6978 RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 37,026 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -0,0220 Value 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 0,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Jauhi area bearish trend channel harian (Research @her1en) Nov 22 0.7075 0.7085 0.7033 52 0.7065 5 0.7060 Nov 21 0.6990 0.7077 0.6985 92 0.7060 45 0.7015 Nov 18 0.7025 0.7060 0.7002 58 0.7015 15 0.7030 Nov 17 0.7090 0.7110 0.7014 96 0.7030 40 0.7070 Nov 16 0.7095 0.7113 0.7036 77 0.7070 30 0.7100 0.7085 0.6985 0.7402 0.6985 0.7310 0.7036 0.7485 0.6348 (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (08/Nov) (21/Nov) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7307 High 10/Nov/2016 0.7228 High 11/Nov/2016 0.7140 High 14/Nov/2016 0.7085 High Nov 22 0.6982 Low 26/Jul/2016 0.6949 Low 21/Jul/2016 (Bottom) 0.6891 Low 07/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) 0.6798 Low 03/Jun/2016 BUY 0.7035 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.6970 0.7105 0.7135
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Reli tembus area 118, hit day high di 118.15 Reli hadapi resistance berikutnya di sekitar 118.45 Waspadai RSI sudah overbought (Research @ErwinRiset) Nov 22 117.75 118.15 117.40 75 118.00 15 117.85 Nov 21 117.55 117.99 117.31 68 117.85 55 117.30 Nov 18 117.10 117.46 116.76 70 117.30 45 116.85 Nov 17 116.50 117.21 116.27 94 116.85 25 116.60 Nov 16 116.95 117.48 116.52 96 116.60 55 117.15 118.15 117.31 118.15 113.75 116.28 112.61 132.25 109.60 (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (09/Nov) (06/Oct) (21/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & 123.31 High 01/Jun/2016 122.68 High 07/Jun/2016 (Peak) 121.98 High 24/Jun/2016 (Peak) 118.45 High 21/Jul/2016 (Peak) 117.20 Pivot line 116.22 Low 17/Nov/2016 (Reaction low) 115.39 Low 14/Nov/2016 114.93 Low 10/Nov/2016 BUY 117.70 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 117.00 118.50 119.15
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi tembus area lowerline of bullish channel, hit day low di 1.3374 Short-term support di sekitar 1.3350 1.3310 Formasi consecutive lower highs dukung sinyal downtrend (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.3498 1.3448 1.3514 1.3374 1.3588 1.3260 1.3431 1.3002 1.4689 1.2458 (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (14/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (19/Oct) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.3859 High 24/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3734 High 25/Feb/2016 1.3588 High 14/Nov/2016 1.3514 High 21/Nov/2016 1.3350 Pivot line 1.3220 Low 21/Oct/2016 1.3106 Low 20/Oct/2016 1.3002 Low 19/Oct/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 1.3480 STOP LOSS 1.3550 1.3360 1.3315
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 12/09/2016-25/11/2016 (JAK) 1343.64 1328.06 1337.40 Price Ozs 1.320 1292.14 1.300 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 22/11/2016; 1.213,8400; 1.221,0601; 1.205,8600; 1.211,9000 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 1.245,0461 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 1.263,9027 @her1en 1203.52 1233.06 RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 25,828 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -84,9900 Value 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 1.280 1.260 1.240 1.220 1.200 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Jauhi area bearish trend channel harian (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Nov 22 1216.00 1221.06 1206.30 14.76 1212.50 1.00 1213.50 1217.55 1212.25 Nov 21 1207.00 1217.63 1205.81 11.82 1213.50 5.00 1208.50 1214.95 1214.25 Nov 18 1215.00 1217.75 1204.16 13.59 1208.50 8.50 1217.00 1206.10 1211.00 Nov 17 1227.00 1231.41 1211.27 20.14 1217.00 8.00 1225.00 1232.00 1226.75 Nov 16 1227.00 1233.06 1221.63 11.43 1225.00 3.00 1228.00 1225.70 1229.20 1221.06 1205.81 1337.40 1204.16 1319.60 1241.72 1374.91 1062.28 (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1265.40 High 11/Nov/2016 1237.22 Reaction high (1-H chart) 1233.06 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 1217.75 High Nov 18 1205.36 Low Nov 21 1203.52 Low Nov 18 1199.60 Low 30/May/2016 (Bottom) 1180.90 Low 10/Feb/2016 BUY 1208.00 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1199.00 1218.00 1223.00
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 19/09/2016-25/11/2016 (JAK) 20.06 19.69 18.99 Price Ozs 19,5 19 18,5 Cndl; XAG=; Bid 22/11/2016; 16,5880; 16,8900; 16,5100; 16,6200 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 17,3930 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 17,7602 17.08 @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 25,768 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -1,8200 Value 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 03 04 05 06 07 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 31 01 02 03 04 07 08 09 10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 17.50 16.42 18 17,5 17 16,5 16 Break area bearish trend channel harian Perhatikan RSI dekat area jenuh jual (Research @her1en) Nov 22 16.54 16.84 16.49 0.35 16.63 0.09 16.54 Nov 21 16.52 16.72 16.47 0.24 16.54 0.01 16.53 Nov 18 16.63 16.72 16.39 0.33 16.53 0.10 16.64 Nov 17 16.93 17.04 16.53 0.51 16.64 0.30 16.94 Nov 16 17.01 17.19 16.82 0.37 16.94 0.09 17.03 16.84 16.47 18.95 16.39 19.28 17.08 21.10 13.73 (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (06/Oct) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & 18.83 High 11/Nov/2016 17.50 High 14/Nov/2016 17.23 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 16.80 Reaction high on 1-H chart 16.42 Low Nov 18 16.18 Low 07/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) 15.77 Low 01/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 15.34 Low 11/Apr/2016 BUY 16.55 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 16.30 16.85 17.05
Page 12 of 12 CLF7/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Dec. 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLF7 30/08/2016-28/11/2016 (JAK) Cndl; CLF7; Trade Price 22/11/2016; 48,37; 49,20; 47,17; 47,91 WMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 47,96 EMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 46,96 52.74 51.55 49.36 49.20 Price Bbl 52 51 50 49 45.18 48 47 46 45 44 43 RSI harian jauhi area jenuh jual Dekati level tertinggi 49.36-50.42 (Research @her1en) 42.95 @her1en RSI; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 62,138 Value Bbl Mom; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14 22/11/2016; 1,98 Value 06 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016 42 Nov 22 (CLF7) 48.35 49.18 47.16 2.02 47.89 0.42 48.31 Nov 21 (CLF7) 46.60 48.49 46.46 2.03 48.31 2.01 46.30 Nov 18 (CLF7) 45.51 46.42 45.16 1.26 46.30 0.80 45.50 Nov 17 (CLF7) 45.85 47.10 45.46 1.64 45.50 0.33 45.83 Nov 17 (CLZ6) 45.35 46.55 44.86 1.69 44.91 0.41 45.32 Nov 16 45.77 46.39 45.03 1.36 45.32 0.43 45.75 49.18 46.46 49.18 42.19 52.20 46.62 51.65 26.04 (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (14/Nov) (19/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 51.55 Reaction high on 1-H chart 50.42 Reaction high on 1-H chart 49.36 Reaction high on 1-H chart 48.74 High 31/Oct/2016 46.46 Low Nov 21 45.18 Low Nov 18 44.38 Reaction low (1-H chart) 43.55 Low 15/Nov/2016 BUY 47.65 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 46.45 49.15 49.65