z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK AS & Global Markets: Barometer untuk pasar ekuitas global (MSCI) tembus level tertinggi 1 pekan pada hari Selasa, terangkat oleh naiknya harga komoditas dan rebound tajam pada bursa Eropa serta perolehan laba korporasi yang solid. Laporan keuangan yang lebih baik dari perkiraan dari UnitedHealth Group Inc, Netflix Inc dan Goldman Sachs Group berhasil angkat Wall Street. Earnings S&P 500 saat ini diprediksi naik tipis di Q3, membalik proyeksi sebelumnya terjadi penurunan profit kuartalan. Ini akan menjadi kuartal pertama sejak 2014 bahwa earnings dan revenue untuk perusahaan-perusahaan S&P 500 meningkat. Sementara itu laporan inflasi AS menunjukkan underlying inflation hanya sedikit moderat di bulan September, mengisyaratkan kemungkinan pencapaian target inflasi The Fed sebesar 2% akan lebih lama dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Harga minyak stabil sedangkan emas naik seiring bergerak datar. Weekahead : Sidang ECB pekan ini (Kamis) akan dicermati pasar, meskipun diprediksi masih akan tahan suku bunganya. ECB sedang menghadapi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lemah dan inflasi yang super rendah. Pertanyaannya adalah, apakah ECB akan memperpanjang program pembelian aset yang sebesar 80 miliar euro per bulan, yang akan selesai pada bulan Maret, atau akan memulai kembali program stimulus yang baru. Pasar juga akan menyoroti data PDB-Q3 Cina (Rabu) yang diprediksi catat pertumbuhan stabil di 6,7%, menyusul meningkatnya anggaran belanja dan booming properti diimbangi oleh lemahnya ekspor. Sementara itu, ekonomi Kanada mencatat rebound di kuartal saat ini, memberikan bank sentral Kanada kesempatan untuk mempertahankan kebijakan moneternya pada sidangnya hari Rabu. Rabu 19 Oktober 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 09:00 CN Retail Sales YY Sep 10.6 % 10.6 09:00 CN GDP YY Q3 6.7 % 6.7 09:00 CN GDP QQ SA Q3 1.8 % 1.8 15:30 GB Claimant Count Unem Change Sep 3.0 k 2.4 15:30 GB ILO Unemployment Rate Aug 4.9 % 4.9 15:30 GB Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY Aug 2.3 % 2.3 19:30 US Building Permits: Number Sep 1.165 m 1.152 19:30 US Housing Starts Number MM Sep 1.175 m 1.142 21:00 CA BoC Rate Decision N/A 0.50 % 0.50 21:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e 2.417 m 4.900 21:30 US EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks w/e -1.250 m -3.700 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= Cndl; EUR=; Bid 19/10/2016; 1,0979; 1,0982; 1,0970; 1,0975 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 19/10/2016; 1,1098 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 19/10/2016; 1,1159 1.1365 1.1326 1.1278 1.1234 27/07/2016-24/10/2016 (JAK) Price 1,135 1,13 1,125 1,12 Value 50 1.0959 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/10/2016; 29,744 @her1en 1.1143 1.0962 1,115 1,11 1,105 1,1 1,095 1,09 Lanjut tekanan harian pada bearish trend channel Rangkaian turun level low harian RSI dekati area jenuh jual (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 19/10/2016; -0,0246 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 Jul 16 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Oct 18 1.1010 1.1026 1.0970 56 1.0980 20 1.1000 Oct 17 1.0970 1.1008 1.0964 44 1.1000 20 1.0980 Oct 14 1.1050 1.1060 1.0978 82 1.0980 70 1.1050 Oct 13 1.1010 1.1056 1.0985 71 1.1050 40 1.1010 Oct 12 1.1060 1.1070 1.1005 65 1.1010 45 1.1055 1.1026 1.0964 1.1243 1.0964 1.1326 1.1122 1.1614 1.0711 (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (03/Oct) (17/Oct) (08/Sep) (21/Sep) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.1201 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1143 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1060 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1026 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.0959 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.0909 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.0820 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.0786 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 1.1000 STOP LOSS 1.1065 1.0930 1.0900
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Koreksi tembus support line dari trend channel Perhatikan area trendline support di sekitar 103.45 Key support di sekitar 102.78 (Research @ErwinRiset) Oct 18 103.85 104.20 103.69 51 103.80 5 103.85 Oct 17 104.15 104.39 103.80 59 103.85 35 104.20 Oct 14 103.75 104.47 103.62 85 104.20 55 103.65 Oct 13 104.30 104.62 103.35 127 103.65 55 104.20 Oct 12 103.35 104.48 103.29 119 104.20 75 103.45 104.39 103.69 104.48 101.22 104.31 100.11 121.68 99.11 (17/Oct) (18/Oct) (12/Oct) (03/Oct) (02/Sep) (22/Sep) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & 106.71 High 25/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) 106.53 High 27/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) 105.50 High 28/Jul/2016 104.62 High 13/Oct/2016 (Reaction high) 103.25 Low 12/Oct/2016 102.65 Low 05/Oct/2016 101.54 Low 04/Oct/2016 100.73 Low 30/Sep/2016 BUY ---- SELL 104.10 STOP LOSS 104.90 103.25 102.85
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Perhatikan pola ascending triangle dengan horizontal resistance di 1.2325 Trendline support di sekitar 1.2170 Strong support di 1.2086 (Research @ErwinRiset) Oct 18 1.2220 1.2325 1.2178 147 1.2290 115 1.2175 Oct 17 1.2160 1.2201 1.2137 64 1.2175 UNCH 1.2175 Oct 14 1.2225 1.2261 1.2169 92 1.2175 70 1.2245 Oct 13 1.2190 1.2271 1.2134 137 1.2245 35 1.2210 Oct 12 1.2270 1.2325 1.2107 218 1.2210 75 1.2135 1.2325 1.2137 1.2946 1.1885 1.3443 1.2915 1.5018 1.1885 (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (06/Sep) (23/Sep) (24/Jun) (07/Oct) ANALYSIS & 1.2759 High 06/Oct/2016 1.2624 High 07/Oct/2016 1.2476 Reaction high (1-H chart) 1.2328 Reaction high (1-H chart) 1.2134 Low 17/Oct/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2086 Low 11/Oct/2016 1.1450 Low 07/Oct/2016 1.1060 Low 22/Mar/1985 (Weekly chart) BUY 1.2255 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.2125 1.2340 1.2385
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Perhatikan pola sideways channel di kisaran 0.9850 0.9920 Major trendline di sekitar 0.9935 Strong resistance di 0.9955 (Research @ErwinRiset) Oct 18 0.9885 0.9914 0.9867 47 0.9900 10 0.9890 Oct 17 0.9905 0.9907 0.9872 35 0.9890 10 0.9900 Oct 14 0.9870 0.9904 0.9857 47 0.9900 35 0.9865 Oct 13 0.9900 0.9917 0.9860 57 0.9865 40 0.9905 Oct 12 0.9880 0.9909 0.9875 34 0.9905 20 0.9885 0.9914 0.9867 0.9917 0.9697 0.9884 0.9641 1.0257 0.9444 (18/Oct) (18/Oct) (13/Oct) (03/Oct) (01/Sep) (29/Sep) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.0197 High 03/Feb/2016 1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) 1.0038 Pivot line 0.9955 High 27/Jul/2016 (Peak) 0.9813 Low 11/Oct/2016 0.9728 Low 05/Oct/2016 0.9691 Low 03/Oct/2016 0.9628 Low 26/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 0.9865 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 0.9800 0.9935 0.9970
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 21/07/2016-24/10/2016 (JAK) 0.7756 0.7732 0.7710 0.7689 Price 0,768 0.7417 EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 19/10/2016; 0,7611 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 19/10/2016; 0,7602 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 19/10/2016; 0,7666; 0,7673; 0,7661; 0,7670 0.7439 0.7504 @her1en RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/10/2016; 65,501 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 19/10/2016; 0,0037 Value 25 01 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 0,764 0,76 0,756 0,752 0,748 0,744 0,74 Koreksi dalam harian pada bearish trend channel Dekati level tertinggi dalam bulanan Hourly tunjukkan penguatan (Research @her1en) Oct 18 0.7640 0.7689 0.7625 64 0.7660 35 0.7625 Oct 17 0.7605 0.7632 0.7582 50 0.7625 20 0.7605 Oct 14 0.7565 0.7647 0.7557 90 0.7605 40 0.7565 Oct 13 0.7555 0.7580 0.7508 72 0.7565 FLAT 0.7565 Oct 12 0.7560 0.7592 0.7535 57 0.7565 25 0.7540 0.7689 0.7582 0.7691 0.7508 0.7732 0.7443 0.7828 0.6828 (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (08/Sep) (13/Sep) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7931 Reaction high on 1-H chart (May, 22, 15) 0.7835 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7773 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7710 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7621 Low Oct 18 0.7553 Low Oct 14 0.7504 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.7469 Low Sept 20 BUY 0.7645 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7580 0.7715 0.7745
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 11/08/2016-25/10/2016 (JAK) 0.7485 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 19/10/2016; 0,7186; 0,7196; 0,7184; 0,7191 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 19/10/2016; 0,7179 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 19/10/2016; 0,7230 0.7412 0.7368 0.7310 Price 0,74 0,735 086 @her1en 0.7032 0.7222 RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/10/2016; 57,299 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 19/10/2016; -0,0056 Value 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 31 01 02 05 06 07 08 09 12 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 03 04 05 06 07 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 0,73 0,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 Menuju puncak bearish trend channel dalam harian Tunjukkan level tertinggi mingguan (Research @her1en) Oct 18 0.7170 0.7222 0.7132 90 0.7195 60 0.7135 Oct 17 0.7090 0.7144 0.7079 65 0.7135 50 0.7085 Oct 14 0.7085 0.7131 0.7078 53 0.7085 10 0.7095 Oct 13 0.7045 0.7101 0.7036 65 0.7095 30 0.7065 Oct 12 0.7080 0.7094 0.7045 49 0.7065 5 0.7060 0.7222 0.7079 0.7310 0.7036 0.7485 0.7223 0.7485 0.6348 (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (07/Sep) (26/Sep) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7368 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7330 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7280 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7245 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7158 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.7124 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.7075 Low Oct 14 0.7032 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 0.7165 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7100 0.7235 0.7265
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Koreksi tembus support line dari pola symmetrical triangle Support berikutnya di sekitar 113.65 113.45 (Research @ErwinRiset) Oct 18 114.35 114.69 114.00 69 114.05 20 114.25 Oct 17 114.20 114.57 114.05 52 114.25 15 114.40 Oct 14 114.60 115.05 114.22 83 114.40 15 114.55 Oct 13 114.85 115.13 113.92 121 114.55 20 114.75 Oct 12 114.30 115.17 114.02 115 114.75 40 114.35 114.69 114.00 116.28 113.62 116.36 112.09 132.25 109.60 (18/Oct) (18/Oct) (06/Oct) (03/Oct) (02/Sep) (21/Sep) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) ANALYSIS & 117.12 High 27/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) 116.36 High 02/Sep/2016 (Peak) 115.79 High 11/Oct/2016 (Reaction high) 115.17 Peak level (1-H chart) 113.45 Low 03/Oct/2016 112.56 Low 30/Sep/2016 (Reaction low) 112.04 Low 21/Sep/2016 (Bottom) 110.78 Low 06/Jul/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 114.35 STOP LOSS 115.25 113.70 113.30
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Formasi consecutive lower highs dukung sinyal bearish Key support di sekitar 1.30 Key resistance di 1.33 (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.3137 1.3105 1.3182 1.3050 1.3312 1.3050 1.3280 1.2818 1.4689 1.2458 (17/Oct) (18/Oct) (07/Oct) (18/Oct) (27/Sep) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.3587 High 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3446 High 09/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3312 High 07/Oct/2016 (Peak) 1.3219 High 14/Oct/2016 1.3044 Low 29/Sep/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2996 Low 22/Sep/2016 (Bottom) 1.2906 Low 09/Sep/2016 1.2847 Low 08/Sep/2016 BUY ---- SELL 1.3135 STOP LOSS 1.3230 1.3025 1.3000
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 22/08/2016-20/10/2016 (JAK) 1352.65 1343.64 1328.06 Price Ozs 1.340 1.330 1.320 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 18/10/2016; 1.256,0000; 1.264,7800; 1.254,3000; 1.262,2400 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 18/10/2016; 1.279,5617 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 18/10/2016; 1.301,7754 1276.97 1241.20 RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential @her1en 18/10/2016; 39,701 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 18/10/2016; -58,9900 Value 22 23 24 25 26 29 30 31 01 02 05 06 07 08 09 12 13 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 03 04 05 06 07 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 1.310 1.300 1.290 1.280 1.270 1.260 1.250 Telah break area bearish trend channel harian Capai level tertinggi mingguan (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Oct 18 1256.00 1264.78 1255.10 9.68 1262.00 7.00 1255.00 1261.65 1258.20 Oct 17 1253.00 1257.17 1250.45 6.72 1255.00 3.50 1251.50 1252.70 1254.80 Oct 14 1257.00 1259.15 1247.43 11.72 1251.50 6.00 1257.50 1256.15 1251.75 Oct 13 1254.50 1261.78 1253.31 8.47 1257.50 3.00 1254.50 1258.00 1261.05 Oct 12 1255.00 1258.66 1250.14 8.52 1254.50 1.50 1253.00 1255.70 1256.50 1264.78 1250.45 1319.60 1241.72 1352.65 1302.75 1374.91 1062.28 (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (07/Sep) (01/Sep) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1284.56 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1276.97 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1269.42 High Oct 06 1264.96 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1254.30 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1252.90 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1249.71 Low Oct 12 1242.70 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 1259.00 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1250.00 1269.00 1274.00
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 08/08/2016-21/10/2016 (JAK) 20.48 20.13 20.06 Price Ozs 19.69 20 Cndl; XAG=; Bid 18/10/2016; 17,4240; 17,7110; 17,4050; 17,5900 18 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 18/10/2016; 18,0676 17,5 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 18/10/2016; 18,6034 17.08 17 RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential @her1en 18/10/2016; 37,592 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 18/10/2016; -1,5870 Value 08 15 22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 18.89 18.00 19,5 19 18,5 Capai level tertinggi mingguan (17.71) RSI dekat area jenuh jual Hourly tunjukkan peningkatan Helpdesk closing price (17.590) previous (17.429) (Research @her1en) Oct 18 17.44 17.69 17.43 0.27 17.59 0.16 17.42 Oct 17 17.41 17.49 17.33 0.16 17.42 0.01 17.43 Oct 14 17.45 17.57 17.29 0.28 17.43 0.03 17.46 Oct 13 17.45 17.66 17.40 0.26 17.46 0.03 17.44 Oct 12 17.44 17.59 17.34 0.26 17.44 0.04 17.39 17.69 17.33 19.28 17.08 20.10 18.56 21.10 13.73 (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (03/Oct) (06/Oct) (06/Sep) (01/Sep) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & 18.89 Reaction high on 1-H chart 18.34 Reaction high on 1-H chart 18.00 High Oct 05 17.84 High Oct 06 17.40 Reaction low on 1-H chart 17.28 Reaction low on 1-H chart 17.08 Reaction low on 1-H chart 16.90 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 17.45 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 17.20 17.75 17.95
Page 12 of 12 CLZ6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Nov. 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLZ6 50.59 52.16 20/07/2016-24/10/2016 (JAK) Price Bbl 50 Cndl; CLZ6; Trade Price 19/10/2016; 51,09; 51,20; 51,07; 51,17 WMA; CLZ6; Trade Price(Last); 55 19/10/2016; 48,33 EMA; CLZ6; Trade Price(Last); 20 19/10/2016; 49,60 41.58 43.77 49.71 @her1en RSI; CLZ6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 19/10/2016; 63,936 Value Bbl Mom; CLZ6; Trade Price(Last); 14 19/10/2016; 2,77 Value 25 01 08 15 22 29 06 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 Pergerakan jauhi puncak trend channel harian Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Last price 51.17 (Research @her1en) Oct 18 (CLZ6) 50.46 51.07 50.12 0.95 51.08 0.63 50.45 Oct 18 (CLX6) 50.04 50.75 49.75 1.00 50.76 0.71 50.05 Oct 17 50.12 50.56 49.46 1.10 50.05 0.25 50.30 Oct 14 50.55 51.12 49.89 1.23 50.30 0.23 50.53 Oct 13 49.98 50.58 49.35 1.23 50.53 0.53 50.00 Oct 12 50.82 51.15 49.89 1.26 50.00 0.85 50.85 51.07 49.46 51.58 47.77 48.29 42.73 51.65 26.04 (18/Oct) (17/Oct) (10/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Sep) (16/Sep) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 52.82 Reaction high on 1-H chart 52.16 Reaction high on 1-H chart 51.81 Reaction high on 1-H chart 51.60 Reaction high on 1-H chart 50.13 Reaction low on 1-H chart 49.33 Reaction low on 1-H chart 48.26 Reaction low on 1-H chart 47.78 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 51.35 STOP LOSS 52.35 49.85 49.35