Company Update Astra International Bloomberg: ASII.IJ Reuters: ASII.JK Samuel Equity Research 3 August 2016 Target Price Rp 6,800 Last Price Rp 7,975 Potential Upside -14.7% JCI Index 5,373 Share isued (mn) 40.48 Market Cap. (Rp bn) 321.84 52-Weeks High/Low 8,075 / 4,975 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 46.11 Free Float 49.8% Nominal Value Rp 50 Book value/share 16 Rp 2,690 Relative to JCI Chart 135 120 105 90 HOLD (Maintain) JCI Company Background Shareholder Structure ASII 75 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 PT Astra International Tbk assembles and distributes automobiles, motorcycles, and their related spare parts. Through its subsidiaries, the Company also operates in the mining, development of plantations, financial and information technology. Jardine Cycle & Carriage L 50.1% Aberdeen 2.7% Others 47.2% Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA +62 21 2854 8144 Akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id Unchanged view Laba 1H16 ASII dilaporkan sebesar Rp7.11tn (-11.62%YoY). Rendahnya pencapaian disebabkan oleh penurunan laba UNTR dan segmen jasa keuangan. Di sisi lain, kinerja segmen auto membukukan pertumbuhan diatas ekspektasi kami (+13%YoY) didorong oleh peluncuran beberapa varian baru. Pertumbuhan positif juga dialami segmen agribisnis (+78%YoY) yang disebabkan oleh one time gain. Lonjakan pertumbuhan laba 2Q16 (+287%YoY) dan membaiknya margin ASII masih belum kami jadikan sebagai indikasi stabilnya pertumbuhan kinerja di kuartal berjalan m aupun sebagai acuan untuk melakukan perubahan sudut pandang. Tetap Hold untuk ASII dengan target SOTP sebesar Rp6.800/saham (15.84x P/E16E dan 2.53x PBV16E). Kinerja 1H16 dibawah ekspektasi. ASII membukukan laba 1H16 sebesar Rp7.11tn (-11.62%YoY) atau hanya 87.7% dari perkiraan konsensus (Rp8.1tn) dan sekitar 90.1% dari proyeksi laba 1H16 kami (Rp7.9tn). Penurunan laba tersebut disebabkan oleh rendahnya kinerja UNTR ditengah kontinuitas pelemahan aktivitas industri yang belum menunjukan perbaikan. Sementara penurunan kinerja segmen jasa keuangan yang telah ikut menekan laba ASII disebabkan oleh kenaikan signifikan loan-loss provisions. 1H16 vs FY16E yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan. Angka laba 1H16 ASII hanya mencapai 47.9% dari proyeksi laba FY16E kami dan 39.2% dibandingkan angka konsensus. Untuk mencapai ekspektasi laba tahun ini, maka laba 2H16 ASII harus tercatat bertumbuh sebesar 55.3%YoY atau +59.1%YoY dibandingkan dengan proyeksi kami. Sebuah angka yang kami perkirakan akan sulit tercapai. Ekspektasi pencapaian FY16E yang lebih baik dari tahun lalu. Terlepas dari rendahnya pencapaian 1H16 vs FY16E, kami berharap potensi stabilnya kinerja auto dan pertumbuhan laba segmen agribisnis dibarengi dengan ekspektasi membaiknya pelemahan kinerja UNTR dan segmen jasa keuangan akan mendorong pencapaian laba ASII FY16 vs FY16E lebih baik dari tahun lalu yang hanya 79% dari proyeksi SSI dan 86% konsensus. Maintain Hold. Tiga skenario proyeksi kami untuk ASII masih belum berubah. Target SOTP kami masih menggunakan skenario moderate. Kekhawatiran kami terletak pada (1) Pertumbuhan stabil segmen auto dan terjaganya pertumbuhan AALI belum mampu menutupi tekanan laba pada segmen jasa keuangan dan UNTR. Perubahan sudut pandang dan TP akan kami lakukan menggunakan laporan kinerja 3Q16. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp7,975 per share) Y/E Dec (Rpbn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Sales 201,701 184,196 184,213 194,444 EBITDA 25,721 20,706 23,820 27,627 Net Profit 19,181 14,464 17,380 20,778 EPS (Rp/saham) 474 357 429 513 DPS (Rp) 216 216 199 239 Dividend Yield (%) 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 3. BV per share (Rp) 2,362 2,521 2,690 3,052 EV/EBITDA (x) 13.6 17.7 15.0 12.9 P/E Ratio (x) 16.8 22.3 18.6 15.5 P/BV Ratio (x) 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.6 www.samuel.co.id
53.98 54.22 53.22 50.84 50.35 51.17 46.02 45.78 46.78 49.16 49.65 48.83 54.89 56.35 53.33 52.06 50.01 51.41 45.11 43.65 46.67 47.94 49.99 48.59 42.12% 39.35% 34.93% 31.27% 28.52% 57.88% 60.65% 65.07% 68.73% 71.48% 2,975,569 3,046,880 2,722,539 2,026,267 1,787,666 4,088,888 4,696,999 5,072,049 4,453,888 4,481,214 Astra International ASII.IJ ASII.JK Figure 1. Net income portion (%) Figure 5. 2W Astra and Non Astra FY Auto Financial HE Agri Infra & others IT 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Astra and Non Astra 2W vol sales - 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F Figure 2. Net margin (%) Figure 6. Astra and Non Astra M/S FY (%) 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 Astra and Non Astra 2W M/S FY 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F Figure 3. Astra and Non Astra 4W M/S 1H (%) Figure 7. ASII net profit 1H vs FY16 10 8 6 4 2 Astra 4W M/S 1H 1H11 1H12 1H13 1H14 1H15 1H16 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Laba 1H Laba FY 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E Figure 4. Astra and Non Astra M/S FY (%) Figure 8. Automotive loan channeled (YoY) 10 Astra 4W M/S FY 25% Vehicles Ownership Loans 8 2 6 15% 1 4 2 5% -5% FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E -1-15% Source : Bloomberg, SSI Research www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5
Figure 9. ASII - 1H16 Result (in Rp bn) 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 QoQ 1H15 1H16 YoY 1H16/FY16E Sales 46,019 41,887 46,321 10.6 92,505 88,208 (4.6) 47.88% COGS (36,572) (33,914) (37,447) 10.4 (74,587) (71,361) (4.3) Gross Profit 9,447 7,973 8,874 11.3 17,918 16,847 (6.0) 43.45% Marketing & Selling Expense (2,542) (1,881) (3,525) 87.4 (5,310) (5,406) 1.8 G&A Expense (2,436) (2,713) (1,262) (53.5) (4,484) (3,975) (11.4) Operating income 4,469 3,379 4,087 21.0 8,124 7,466 (8.1) 38.94% Other non-operating Income (expense) (3,230) 1,108 1,658 49.6 3,949 2,766 (30.0) Pre-tax Income 1,239 4,487 5,745 28.0 12,073 10,232 (15.2) 40.83% Tax 237 848 1,074 26.7 2,315 1,922 (17.0) Minority interest (1,465) 527 667 26.6 1,706 1,194 (30.0) Net income (owners of parent) 2,467 3,112 4,004 28.7 8,052 7,116 (11.62) 40.94% EPS 61 77 99 28.7 199 176 (11.6) 17,380 26.1% 28.7% 55.67% 40.94% 40.94% Profitability Operating margin 9.7% 8.1% 8.8% 0.8% 8.8% 8.5% -0.3% Pre-tax margin 2.7% 10.7% 12.4% 1.7% 13.1% 11.6% -1.5% Net margin 5.4% 7.4% 8.6% 1.2% 8.7% 8.1% -0.6% Figure 10. ASII business / segmentation - revenue Revenue quarterly (Rpbn) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Auto 26,521 27,667 25,496 27,288 23,136 24,712 22,499 25,087 Financial 3,648 3,841 4,057 3,983 4,160 4,296 4,286 4,332 HE 13,857 13,601 13,245 12,422 12,621 12,269 13,317 11,002 Agribusiness 3,726 4,282 3,752 4,546 3,233 3,996 3,118 2,712 Infrastructure & others 1,676 1,880 2,073 2,129 1,616 1,597 1,839 1,894 IT 393 436 431 751 421 448 613 992 Total 49,821 51,707 49,054 51,119 45,187 47,318 45,672 46,019 Figure 11. ASII business / segmentation - net income Net income quarterly (Rpbn) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Auto 2,049 1,954 1,892 2,585 1,621 1,821 1,947 2,075 Financial 981 1,497 1,327 943 1,191 894 911 559 HE 959 1,029 917 363 983 1,065 1,294-1,000 Agribusiness 625 466 410 494 124 230-238 377 Infrastructure & others 87 84 81 238 36 32 23 315 IT 26 58 50 66 37 38 48 81 Total 4,727 5,088 4,677 4,689 3,992 4,080 3,985 2,407 www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5
Key Financials Profit and Loss Cash Flow Yr-end Dec(Rpbn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec(Rpbn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Revenue 201,701 184,196 184,213 194,444 Net income 19,181 14,464 17,380 20,778 COGS (162,892) (147,486) (145,437) (152,896) Depr & amort. 6,540 6,242 6,439 6,849 Gross profit 38,809 36,710 38,776 41,547 Others (293) (2,158) (4,038) (3,502) Gross margin (%) 19.2 19.9 21.0 21.4 Working capital 4,178 (2,702) 2,121 3,175 Operating profit 20,163 17,212 19,175 21,208 Operating CF 29,606 15,846 21,903 27,300 Opr margin (%) 10.0 9.3 10.4 10.9 Net - Capex (15,737) (11,318) (5,098) (10,054) EBITDA 25,721 20,706 23,820 27,627 Investing CF (8,306) (8,306) (1,939) (6,051) EBITDA margin (%) 12.8 11.2 12.9 14.2 Dividend (8,744) (8,744) (8,792) (12,589) Other inc (exp) 7,189 2,418 5,887 8,485 Other 2,079 2,079 (6,358) (1,049) Pre-tax profit 27,352 19,630 25,062 29,693 Financing CF (6,665) (6,665) (15,151) (13,639) Income tax - net (5,227) (4,017) (4,864) (5,731) Net - Cash flow 14,635 875 4,813 7,610 Net profit 19,181 14,464 17,380 20,778 Cash at beginning 18,557 20,902 27,586 28,156 Profit margin (%) 9.51 7.85 9.43 10.69 Cash at ending 20,902 27,586 28,156 29,417 18382 0 0 0 0 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec(Rpbn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec(Rpbn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Cash & ST Invest 20,902 27,586 28,156 29,417 ROE (%) 20.1% 14.2% 16. 16.8% Receivables 51,629 49,504 47,153 51,716 ROA (%) 8.1% 5.9% 7.2% 8.1% Inventories 16,986 18,337 18,421 19,444 Rev growth (%) 4% -9% 6% Others 7,724 9,734 7,054 6,474 EPS growth (%) -1.2% -24.6% 20.2% 19.6% Total cur assets 97,241 105,161 100,784 107,051 Int cov (x) 18.7 15.1 11.9 15.1 Net fixed assets 61,336 58,545 60,392 64,233 Debt to equity (%) 73% 69% 59% 51% Other assets 77,452 81,729 80,427 85,089 Net gearing (%) 51% 42% 33% 27% Total assets 236,029 245,435 241,604 256,373 Payables 18,839 20,557 17,206 18,161 Assumption ST.debt & curr. mat 37,421 36,202 32,334 29,638 14A 15A 16E 17E Other cur liabilities 17,263 19,483 15,766 16,642 GDP (%) 5.5 4.7 5.1 5.4 LT. debt 32,651 34,447 31,411 32,758 IDR-Avg (Per USD) 11,885 13,500 13,650 13,200 Other lt liabilities 9,531 8,213 11,007 9,188 IDR-Eop (Per USD) 12,440 14,000 13,000 12,500 Total liabilities 115,705 118,902 107,725 106,388 Oil (USD/barel) 98 55 40 50 Total equity 120,324 126,533 133,879 149,985 Coal ASP (US$) 66 61 55 62 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 5
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