Source : MCI Research, Bloomberg

Transkripsi

1 JCI Industry Revenue (IDR bn) Profit before income tax (IDR bn) Net income (IDR mn) EPS (IDR) BV (IDR) Revenue growth (%) EPS growth (%) Current ratio (X) Altman ZScore Debttoequity (X) ROE (%) PEG (X) P/E (X) P/BV (X) Source : MCI Research, Bloomberg % , % 138.3% % , % 89.9% % ,288 1, % 42.5% % ,075 1,782 1, % 22.9% % ,245 2,018 1, % 12.2% %

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3 Kapasitas Pabrik Beton Pracetak Legundi Klaten Gasing 250 ribu ton/tahun Subang 350 Bojonegara 200 Palembang 200 Sidoarjo Kalijati Karawang 450 Sadang 350 Cibitung 350

4 Kapasitas Produksi per tahun FY FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 juta ton/tahun

5 Kapasitas Produksi Beton Pracetak Total Order Book IDR tn juta ton/tahun % Net Margin 21.9% 20.2% 19.3% 13.7% 11.7% 12.9% 19.4% 13.0% 19.5% 13.0% 12.6% 6.6% 13.5% 12.4% 10.1% 9.0% Operating Margin 12.5% % 8.5% 12.3% 8.6% 12.2% 8.7%

6 Return on Equity Return on Asset 25.1% 11.7% 21.9% 20.0% 22.0% 20.9% 8.7% 8.7% 7.7% 15.0% 7.7% 10.9% 8.6% 11.1% 10.5% 10.7% 8.7% 8.7% 5.7% Altman ZScore Debt to Equity Ratio % 5.9% 5.7% 4.6% 8.7% Belanja Modal Total Asset , IDR bn IDR tn

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8 No Nama Proyek Jalan Tol Benoa Underpass Simpang Patal Pusri Jalan Tol Becakayu Golf Island Jalan Tol Solo Kertosono Normalisasi Kali Pesanggrahan Jalan Tol CikampekPalimanan Jalan Tol MKTT Superblok K2 Park Tangerang Jalan Tol CimanggisCibitung Dermaga Kuala Tanjung Jalan Tol DepokAntasari Light Rail Transit (LRT) Jalan Tol PejaganPemalang Jalur Kereta Api Bandara Soetta Jalan Tol Bocimi Pengaman Pantai Jakarta (Giant Sea Wall) Perluasan Gedung Terminal 3 Soetta Jalan Tol ManadoBitung Aksesibilitas & ducting Bandara Soetta JUFMP (JEDI 7) Jalan Tol SemarangBatang Jalan Tol Kayu Aung Saluran Penghubung DKI Jakarta NCICD Aliran Barat Timur Lokasi Bali Sumatera Selatan Jakarta Jakarta Jawa Tengah Jakarta Jawa Barat Sumatera Utara Jakarta Jakarta Sumatera Utara Jawa Barat Sumatera Selatan Jawa Tengah Banten Jawa Barat Jakarta Banten Manado Jawa Barat Jawa Barat Jawa Tengah Sumatera Selatan Jakarta Jakarta Tahun

9 Grafik 13Perolehan Kontrak Baru Grafik 14Total Order Book Kontrak Baru Total Order Book % % 35.2% 11.0% 9.1% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 50% 100% Kontrak Baru (IDR tn) Pertumbuhan (%YoY) Kontrak Baru (IDR tn) Carry Over (IDR tn) Order Book (IDR tn) Sumber : MCS Research, Bloomberg Untuk target Pendapatan tahun 2017 ini kami memproyeksikan di level IDR 7.3 triliun atau tumbuh sebesar 54.5% YoY. Kami mencapai kesimpulan untuk target Pendapatan tersebut setelah memper mbangkan data historis dalam menyelesaikan proyek di suatu tahun berjalan, seper yang tercermin dari carry over proyek se ap tahunnya. Sedangkan untuk Laba Bersih di tahun 2017 kami proyeksikan dapat tumbuh sebesar 42.5% YoY ke level IDR 905 miliar. Jika membandingkan dengan management guidance terkait target perolehan Pendapatan dan Laba Bersih 2017 angka kami cukup konserva f. Untuk Pendapatan, manajemen menargetkan angka IDR 7.9 triliun (versi kami IDR 7.3 triliun) sehingga target kami 7.6% dibawah target manajemen. Sedangkan untuk Laba Bersih manajemen menargetkan sebesar IDR 1.21 triliun (versi kami IDR 905 miliar) sehingga target kami 25.2% dibawah target manajemen. Grafik 15Target Kinerja Pendapatan Grafik 16Target Kinerja Laba Bersih Proyeksi Pendapatan Proyeksi Laba Bersih % % % 24.5% 12.9% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% 1,400 1,200 1, , % 1, % % % 12.2% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Pendapatan (IDR tn) Pertumbuhan (%YoY) Laba Bersih (IDR bn) Pertumbuhan (%YoY) Sumber : MCS Research,, Bloomberg

10 Cash Flow 4,108 1, (85) 1,962 1,167 2,186 1,611 (174) (686) (524) (3,035) Cash Flow f/ Operation (IDR bn) Net Change in Cash Flow (IDR bn)

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12 Anggaran Infrastruktur tdhp Belanja APBN Belanja Pemerintah dalam PDB 1,400 16% 1,300 1, % 1, % 1,000 1,125 1,172 1, % , % 12.3% % 4.3% 14% 10% 300 8% 200 2% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Belanja Pemerintah (IDR tn) INDIKATOR Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (YoY) Inflasi (YoY) USD/IDR Suku Bunga SPN Harga Minyak ICP (Per Barel) Sumber: Kemenkeu FY16 APBNP ,2% 4,3% Rp ,2% USD % % % 17% 15% % % 11% 9% 7.9% FY13 FY14 7% FY15 Belanja Infrastruktur (IDR tn) APBN ,4% 3,5% Rp ,2% USD % % 13% 146 FY12 Pertumbuhan (%YoY) APBNP 5,2% 4% Rp ,5% USD % 20.0% % 4% FY16 % thdp Belanja APBN

13 Method DCF PER PBV PS Value Weight (8,974) 0% 1,104 25% 1,132 25% % 12mo Target Price ASSUMPTION Cost of Debt (Gross) Tax Rate Cost of Debt (Net) Riskfree Rate Market Return Risk Premium Beta Cost of Equity Debt to Asset Ratio WACC Return on Assets Dividend Payout Ratio Retention Rate Terminal Growth Total % 37% 0.0% 7.2% 6.7% 0.5% % % 6.9% 30% % 1 1, ,997 (843) (110) (104) (234,651) 2,058 3,976 (236,569) (8,974) Operating Profit Income Tax Operating Profit After Tax +Depreciation Capital Expenditure Change Working Capital FCFF PV of FCFF Value of the Firm Cash Total Debt Value of Equity Fair Value per Share 2 1, , (203) (183) 3 4 Terminal 1, , ,376 (661) (273,038) (566) (233,797) Relative Valuation Price to Earning 875 Price to Book Value 1, Price to Sales , ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

14 Price 1, Current Price 12mo Target Price

15 Apendix 1Laporan Neraca dan Laba Rugi (IDR bn) BALANCED SHEET Assets + Cash & Near Cash Items ,206 3,682 4,849 6,460 + ShortTerm Investments Accounts & Notes Receivable ,046 4,144 5,205 5,900 + Inventories Other Current Assets ,027 1,290 1,463 Total Current Assets 981 1,004 8,133 9,194 11,779 14,319 + LT Investments & LT Receivables 0 2,320 3,628 2,974 2,974 2,974 + Net Fixed Assets ,933 3,621 4,084 4,350 + Gross Fixed Assets 229 1,082 2,145 3,987 4,669 5,177 Accumulated Depreciation Other LongTerm Assets Total LongTerm Assets 222 3,329 5,602 6,663 7,144 7,421 Total Assets 1,203 4,332 13,734 15,857 18,923 21,740 Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity + Accounts Payable ,542 2,401 3,020 3,426 + ShortTerm Borrowings ,907 2,907 3,746 4,296 + Other ShortTerm Liabilities 369 1,400 1,317 1,363 1,877 2,085 Total Current Liabilities 500 2,432 4,766 6,671 8,643 9,807 + LongTerm Borrowings , Other LongTerm Liabilities Total LongTerm Liabilities , Total Liabilities 500 3,002 6,329 7,275 8,895 10,091 + Total Preferred Equity Minority Interest Share Capital & APIC ,581 6,581 6,581 6,581 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity ,001 3,447 5,068 Total Equity 702 1,331 7,406 8,582 10,027 11,649 Total Liabilities & Equity 1,203 4,332 13,734 15,857 18,923 21,740 Book Value per Share INCOME STATEMENT Revenue 642 2,644 4,717 7,288 9,075 10,245 Cost of Revenue 495 2,225 3,667 5,725 7,116 8,027 Gross Profit ,050 1,562 1,958 2,217 + Other Operating Income Operating Expenses Operating Income or Losses ,405 1,761 1,994 Interest Expense Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) Net NonOperating Losses (Gains) (1) 17 (14) (15) (21) (25) Pretax Income ,420 1,782 2,018 Income Tax Expense (Benefit) Income Before XO Items ,112 1,247 Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax Net Income/Net Profit (Losses) ,112 1,247 Total Cash Preferred Dividends Other Adjustments Net Inc Avail to Common Shareholders ,112 1,247 Earning per Share Revenue per Share

16 Apendix 2Laporan Arus Kas dan Analisa Rasio (IDR bn) CASH FLOW STATEMENT Cash From Operating Activities + Net Income ,112 1,247 + Depreciation & Amortization Other NonCash Adjustments (233) (1,108) (3,787) Cash From Operations (85) (686) (3,035) 1,792 1,962 2,186 Cash From Investing Activities + Disposal of Fixed Assets Capital Expenditures (22) (124) (832) (1,997) (900) (750) + Change in Investments Other Investing Activities 0 0 (1) Cash From Investing Activities (22) (124) (833) (1,997) (900) (750) Cash from Financing Activities + Dividends Paid (271) (334) (374) + Change in ShortTerm Borrowings , Change in LongTerm Borrowings ,595 (1,048) (401) 0 + Change in Capital Stocks , Other Financing Activities 0 0 (86) Cash from Financing Activities ,976 (319) Net Changes in Cash 272 (174) 4,108 (524) 1,167 1,611 RATIO LIQUIDITY Current ratio (X) Altman ZScore GROWTH Revenue growth (%) 311.9% 78.4% 54.5% 24.5% 12.9% Operating income growth (%) 156.1% 162.3% 47.4% 25.3% 13.2% Profit before income tax growth (%) 142.2% 179.9% 46.8% 25.5% 13.3% Net income growth (%) 138.3% 89.9% 42.5% 22.9% 12.2% PROFITABILITY Gross profit margin (%) 22.9% 15.9% 22.3% 21.4% 21.6% 21.6% Operating income margin (%) 22.1% 13.7% 20.2% 19.3% 19.4% 19.5% Net income margin (%) 21.9% 12.6% 13.5% 12.4% 12.3% 12.2% Return on equity (%) 20.0% 25.1% 8.6% 10.5% 11.1% 10.7% Return on assets (%) 11.7% 7.7% 4.6% 5.7% 5.9% 5.7% LEVERAGE Debttoequity (X) Debttoasset (X) VALUATION Price to earnings ratio (X) Price to book ratio (X) PEG ratio (X)

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