RISET SAHAM HARIAN. IHSG berpotensi menguat hari ini. Samuel Equity Research Monday, 07 November 2016

Transkripsi

1 RISET SAHAM HARIAN Samuel Equity Research Monday, 07 November 2016 Market Activity Monday, 07 Nov 2016 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 5,362.7 : (+0.6%) : 4,050 Mn shrs : 5,327 Bn rupiah Leading Movers HMSP 3, GGRM 67, ICBP 9, BBNI 5, Lagging Movers UNVR 43, BMRI 11, ISAT 6, DNET Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) TPIA 4 ASII 223 ITMG 4 TLKM 118 DOID 3 BBCA 83 LINK 3 GGRM 75 BJTM 2 UNVR 54 IHSG berpotensi menguat hari ini Bursa AS ditutup melemah pada jumat lalu seiring antisipasi terhadap pemilihan presiden di negara itu. Dari sisi ekonomi, data non-farm payrolls tercatat di bawah ekspektasi (aktual vs ekspektasi ). Namun, pagi ini Dow futures dan peso menguat menyusul pernyataan FBI bahwa tidak ada cukup bukti untuk melakukan penyelidikan lebih lanjut Hillary Clinton, yang selama ini tampak disukai oleh pelaku pasar. IHSG menguat 0,6% pada jumat lalu dengan foreign net sell Rp 966 miliar di pasar reguler. Hari ini IHSG diperkirakan melanjutkan penguatan seiring berita terkait Hillary Clinton tersebut dan penguatan sejumlah bursa pagi ini. Di minggu ini, pemilihan presiden AS tanggal 8 November menjadi hal penting yang dapat mewarnai bursa global. Money Market USD/IDR 13, JIBOR O/N Infl (MoM) Dual Listing Securities TLKM ISAT EIDO World Indices DJIA 17, S&P 500 2, Euro Stoxx 2, MSCI World 1, Nikkei 17, Hang Seng 22, Commodities Brent Oil CPO Malay 2, Coal Newc Nickel 10, Tin 21, Highlights SMBR : Incar penjualan naik 9% yoy di 2017 Telekomunikasi : Revisi PP52/53 tahun 2000 diharapkan dapat segera rampung Toll Road : Perusahaan konstruksi asal Turki membidik pengusahaan tol Probolinggo Banyuwangi senilai Rp 18,4 triliun Sektor unggas : industri pakan ternak butuh 8,75 juta ton jagung Telekomunikasi : 8 Izin penyelenggaraan telekomunikasi dicabut WSKT : Targetkan laba Rp2.7tn DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

2 SMBR :Incar penjualan naik 9% yoy di 2017 PT Semen Baturaja Tbk (SMBR) mengincar penjualan senilai Rp 1,85 triliun pada 2017, meningkat 9,5% yoy dibandingkan target Rp 1,69 triliun di tahun ini. Penjualan usaha ini akan ditopang oleh volume penjualan semen sebanyak 2 juta semen pada 2017, meningkat 21% dibandingkan perkiraan realisasi 1,65 juta ton di tahun ini. Perseroan akan memasok semen untuk kebutuhan infrastruktur, termasuk pembangunan Asian Games yang akan diselenggaran di Palembang, Sumatera Selatan dan Jakarta pada (Bisnis Indonesia) SMBR: Under Review Telekomunikasi: Revisi PP52/53 tahun 2000 diharapkan dapat segera rampung Pemerintah disarankan untuk mempercepat revisi Peraturan Pemerintah (PP) No. 52/2000 tentang Penyelenggaraan Telekomunikasi dan PP No. 53/2000 tentang Penggunaan Spektrum Frekuensi Radio dan Orbit Satelit dalam rangka efisiensi industri telekomunikasi. (Bisnis Indonesia) Telekomunikasi: Overweight Toll Road: Perusahaan konstruksi asal Turki membidik pengusahaan tol Probolinggo Banyuwangi senilai Rp 18,4 triliun Perusahaan konstruksi asal Turki Enka Insast Ve Sanayi membidik pengusahaan jalan tol Probolinggo Banyuwangi senilai Rp 18,4 triliun, bersaing dengan badan usaha dalam negeri. Jasa Marga (JSMR) Waskita Toll Road dan Brantas Abipraya. (Bisnis Indonesia) Utilities: Neutral Sektor unggas: industri pakan ternak butuh 8,75 juta ton jagung Industri pakan ternak nasional membutuhkan sedikitnya 8,75 juta ton jagung pada tahun depan. Jagung sebanyak itu digunakan untuk mendukung tercapainya target produksi pakan ternak sebesar 17,50 juta ton pada tahun Kementerian Pertanian menyakini produksi jagung mencapai 25,20 juta ton pipilan kering pada tahun depan, atau naik 8.81% dari target tahun ini yaitu 23,16 juta ton. (Investor Daily). Sektor Unggas: Overweight. Telekomunikasi: 8 Izin penyelenggaraan telekomunikasi dicabut Kementerian Komunikasi dan Informatika (Kemkominfo) telah mencabut delapan izin penyelenggaraan telekomunikasi di Indonesia terhadap 7 perusahaan sepanjang Izin dicabut dari Global Telecom Utama, Reka Jasa Akses, Jatrindo Dinamika, Bakrie Telecom Tbk, Pasific Satelit Nusantara, Reach Network Services Indonesia dan Asia Celullar Satellite. (Investor Daily) Telekomunikasi: Overweight Page 2 of 6

3 Gas 58 kargo LNG untuk pembangkit listrik Pasokan gas untuk membangkit listrik di Indonesia pada 2017 sudah aman setelah pemerintah menyiapkan 58,32 kargo gas alam cair (LNG) kepada PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara. Alokasi gas untuk pembangkit pada tahun depan berasal dari IDD Bangka, Blok Mahakam, BP, Eni Tranche A dan B dan Lapangan Gas Wasambo. (Bisnis Indonesia) Utilities: Under Review Uraian IDD Bangka 4,8 7,8 5,8 LNG Blok 17,0 17,0 17,0 Mahakam ke Nusantara Regas Kontrak BP 20,0 20,0 20,0 dengan PLN Eni Tranche A dan 12,0 23,3 23,3 B melalui Pertamina Lapangan Gas 4,5 9,0 9,0 Wasambo Qatar - - 8,2 Perusahaan daerah - - 3,0 Papua Kontrak baru BP - - 4,4 dengan PLN Total 58,32 77,98 90,69 WSKT: Targetkan laba Rp2.7tn PT Waskita Karya, Tbk (WSKT) mentargetkan laba bersih bertumbuh Rp2,7triliun tahun depan, dengan kenaikan penjualan menjadi Rp35triliun. Untuk mencapai target tersebut, WSKT mentargetkan asset akan bertumbuh menjadi Rp30triliun melalui penambahan ekuitas sebesar Rp10triliun dan sumber pendanaan lain dari bank Rp20triliun. (Bisnis Indonesia) (WSKT: BUY P/E17E dan 3.21 PBV17E). Page 3 of 6

4 Ticker Rec. JCI Wgt price 1D Chg 5D Chg 1M Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside Banks (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E BMRI HOLD (0.4) (2.42) % 13.2% n/a n/a BBCA BUY (0.64) (1.9) % 17.9% n/a n/a BBRI BUY % 18.3% n/a n/a BBNI BUY % 13.9% n/a n/a BBTN BUY (2.60) (2.9) % 12.6% n/a n/a Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY (4.46) (5.0) % 20.8% INDF BUY (0.3) (4.11) (8.1) % 14.2% KLBF HOLD (0.29) % 19.6% ROTI BUY (3.03) % 21.1% ULTJ BUY (1.3) % 23.0% UNVR HOLD (0.5) (1.24) (1.2) % 116.6% SIDO BUY (1.74) % 20.4% Cigarette HMSP HOLD (1.25) (3.9) % 33.8% GGRM BUY % 14.1% Healthcare Retail MIKA BUY % 19.0% SILO BUY (1.22) (2.9) % 4.8% MAPI HOLD (1.8) (0.91) % 8.9% RALS BUY (1.92) % 18.4% ACES BUY % 19.1% Telco LPPF BUY (1.1) (12.02) (12.4) (9.5) % 74.5% EXCL BUY (0.44) (13.6) (36.7) % 8.1% ISAT HOLD (2.3) (1.55) % 12.0% TLKM BUY (1.89) (1.2) % 25.7% Auto and HE ASII BUY (0.61) (0.9) % 15.2% UNTR BUY % 11.4% Aviation GIAA HOLD (6.38) (13.7) % 6.5% Property BSDE HOLD (5.07) (5.1) % 11.8% PWON BUY (0.69) % 15.8% KPIG BUY (6.5) 2.8 n/a % 4.1% n/a n/a ASRI HOLD (4.98) (9.5) % 9.1% SMRA HOLD (15.34) (18.5) (13.0) % 10.5% Construction PTPP HOLD (1.2) (2.93) (5.0) % 20.1% ADHI HOLD (1.82) (8.9) % 13.1% WSKT BUY (4.20) (4.2) % 15.4% WIKA BUY (2.27) (8.8) (2.3) % 17.8% Cement INTP HOLD (2.28) (10.3) (27.9) % 18.6% SMGR HOLD (7.02) (10.8) (18.6) % 16.3% SMCB SELL (1.57) (6.9) (5.5) % 1.1% Precast WSBP BUY (3.97) n/a n/a % 9.4% WTON BUY (3.31) (6.4) % 10.8% Utility PGAS BUY (4.63) (5.0) (10.0) % 13.5% JSMR BUY (0.2) (1.75) (4.1) (14.1) % 14.3% Coal and Metal ANTM BUY % 1.4% INCO HOLD (1.1) % 3.7% TINS HOLD % 6.3% ITMG BUY % 12.2% ADRO BUY % 6.6% PTBA BUY % 20.3% Plantation AALI BUY (4.83) (3.6) (2.2) % 10.7% LSIP BUY (6.31) (6.9) % 9.7% SIMP BUY (2.00) % 4.8% Poultry PE PBV ROE EV/EBITDA (x) CPIN BUY (2.16) (2.2) % 13.2% JPFA BUY (2.05) % 17.7% MAIN BUY (6.82) % 15.9% Other Sectors AKRA HOLD Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, INCO report in USD. Page 4 of 6

5 Regional Indices 1D Change Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World (6.91) 1,660 (0.41) (0.76) (1.82) (3.05) (3.29) (0.16) (2.60) 1,750 1,460 U.S. (S&P) (3.48) 2,085 (0.17) (1.26) (1.94) (3.18) (4.48) 2.02 (0.67) 2,194 1,810 U.S. (DOW) (42.39) 17,888 (0.24) (0.83) (1.50) (1.93) (3.53) 2.66 (0.12) 18,668 15,451 Europe (18.96) 2,955 (0.64) (2.27) (4.05) (1.53) (0.64) (9.58) (14.81) 3,524 2,673 Emerging Market (4.81) 880 (0.54) (2.49) (2.59) (3.79) (0.61) FTSE 100 (97.25) 6,693 (1.43) (3.24) (4.33) (4.98) (1.48) 7.22 n/a 7,130 5,500 CAC 40 (34.22) 4,377 (0.78) (2.08) (3.76) (1.63) (0.75) (5.60) (12.17) 5,012 3,892 Dax (66.75) 10,259 (0.65) (2.54) (4.09) (2.21) (1.04) (4.50) (6.63) 11,431 8,699 Indonesia , (0.98) (0.88) (0.27) (1.06) ,483 4,331 Japan , (1.58) (1.60) (9.81) (10.90) 20,012 14,864 Australia , (0.10) (1.76) (4.45) (4.97) (1.36) ,611 4,707 Korea , (0.51) (2.72) (1.00) 1.86 (2.12) 2,074 1,818 Singapore (13.28) 2,789 (0.47) (0.88) (0.98) (3.01) (1.39) (3.26) (7.36) 3,026 2,528 Malaysia , (1.36) (1.32) (1.03) (0.95) (2.62) (2.22) 1,729 1,601 Hong Kong (40.89) 22,643 (0.18) (2.18) (1.36) (5.07) (0.98) 24,364 18,279 China (3.62) 3,125 (0.12) (11.69) (12.94) 3,685 2,638 Taiwan , (2.21) (2.57) (2.13) (0.26) ,400 7,628 Thailand (7.38) 1,486 (0.49) (1.25) (0.58) (1.24) (2.17) ,558 1,221 Philipines , (2.40) (3.56) (4.63) (9.32) ,118 6,084 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) (0.00) 4.20 (0.66) (2.62) (2.63) (44.63) (29.56) Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a n/a Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.14 n/a (36.36) (79.71) (85.42) (0.45) US Fed Rate (%) Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (16.14) (15.97) Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia (7.00) (0.20) (0.13) (0.66) ,095 12,920 Japan (0.84) (0.66) 0.80 (0.97) UK (0.00) 1.25 (0.23) (15.26) (15.26) (17.38) Euro (0.00) 1.11 (0.29) (0.82) China (0.01) (1.25) (3.89) (3.89) (6.21) Commodities Indicators 1D Change Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil (1.99) (5.16) (10.78) CPO (33.00) 2, (1.19) 0.07 (2.04) , , Rubber (0.14) Coal (3.31) Iron Ore Tin , , , Nickel (20.00) 10, (0.19) (1.37) , , Copper , (2.79) 5, , Gold (12.30) 1, (0.94) (1.22) (3.53) , , Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Page 5 of 6

6 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research,Strategy, Banking, Consumer Rangga Cipta Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id Head of Institutional Marketing Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id Wahyudi Budiono Dealer wahyudi.budiyono@samuel.co.id Equity Sales Team Kelvin Siwah Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id Indra S. Affandi Institutional Equity Sales indra.siswandi@samuel.co.id Lucia Irawati Head of Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id Ferry Khusaeri Equity Sales ferry.khusaeri@samuel.co.id Iwan Setiadi Equity Sales iwan.setiadi@samuel.co.id Lia Chaterina Equity Sales liachaterina@samuel.co.id Amelia Sintama Equity Sales amelia@samuel.co.id Salt World Widjaja Equity Sales salt@samuel.co.id Jovita Widjaja Equity Sales jovita.widjaja@samuel.co.id James Wihardja Equity Sales james.wihardja@samuel.co.id Joseph Soegandhi Equity Sales joseph.soegandhi@samuel.co.id Dian Anggraeni Equity Sales dian.anggraeni@samuel.co.id Sylviawati Equity Sales sylviawati@samuel.co.id Verawati Gunawan Equity Sales verawati.gunawan@samuel.co.id Cenni Liawisusi Equity Sales cenni.liawisusi@samuel.co.id Frans Ferdiansah Equity Sales frans.ferdiansah@samuel.co.id Muhamad Faisyal Dealer m.faisal@samuel.co.id Wulan Budi Setyowati Dealer wulan.setyowati@samuel.co.id Bismar Ferryaman Dealer bismar.ferryaman@samuel.co.id Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head Of Marketing OLT nugroho@samuel.co.id Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id Rina Lestari Customer Service rina.lestari@samuel.co.id Martha Lamtiurma Tampubolon Customer Service martha.lamtiurma@samuel.co.id Mohamad Andhika Prasetia Customer Service andhika@samuel.co.id DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. Page 6 of 6