Matahari Department Store Bloomberg: LPPF.IJ Reuters: LPPF.JK

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1 Company Note Matahari Department Store Bloomberg: LPPF.IJ Reuters: LPPF.JK Samuel Equity Research 11 January 2017 Target Price Rp 19,500 Last Price Rp 15,675 Potential Upside 24% JCI Index 5,315 Share isued (bn) 2.92 Market Cap. (Rp tn) Weeks High/Low 14,500/22575 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 6.51 Free Float 44.4% Nominal Value Rp 1,000 Book value/share 17 Relative to JCI Chart 120 JCI 100 Company Background Shareholder Structure BUY (Maintain) LPPF 80 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Rp1,166 PT Matahari Department Store Tbk memiliki bisnis ritel yang terbagi dalam beberapa jenis produk seperti baju, aksesoris, tas, sepatu, kosmetik, peralatan rumah tangga, dan merupakan operator terbesar dalam segmen Department Store di Indonesia Multipolar Tbk 20.5% Capital Group Company 6.5% Fil LTD 3.1% Blackrock 2.2% T Row e Price Associates 2.1% Ameriprise Fin Group 1.7% Morgan Stanley Investment Inc 1.0% Public 62.7% Marlene Tanumihardja marlene@samuel.co.id New Year, New Optimism! Meskipun harga saham LPPF pada tahun 2016 lalu sempat turun sebanyak 61% dari harga tertingginya, namun pada tahun ini kami menyimpan sejumlah optimisme. Diawali dengan optimisme membaiknya kinerja 4Q16 seiring usaha manajemen untuk lebih fokus pada segmen Direct Purchase yang mendatangkan marjin lebih tinggi, stabilnya inflasi sampai dengan Desember 16 kemarin, dan ekspektasi peningkatan daya beli (bullishnya harga komoditas), turut menjadi sentimen positif untuk prospek kinerja LPPF pada tahun Didukung oleh masih berlanjutnya ekspansi pembukaan gerai gerai baru serta mulai meredanya kekhawatiran investor, kami merekomendasikan BUY dengan TP Rp 19,500/lembar saham, 17E PE: 20.6x, dan PBV: 16.7x. Melanjutkan optimisme dengan beberapa sentimen positif. Kami tetap memproyeksikan kinerja positif untuk LPPF, terutama dengan dorongan mulai berkurangnya kekhawatiran para investor menyangkut investasi tambahan pada Mataharimall.com pada bulan November 2016 lalu. Sebagai kilas balik, LPPF berencana untuk menyuntikkan dana dengan total sebesar Rp590 miliar yang dilakukan secara bertahap sampai dengan 3Q17, untuk meningkatkan kepemilikan sebesar 19% (sebelumnya: 9.5%), dan menghindari dilusi kepemilikan setelah masuknya investasi dari Mitsui. Meskipun kami melihat kesuksesan bisnis e-commerce hanya mampu terlihat dalam kurun waktu jangka panjang, namun giatnya manajemen untuk fokus pada segmen Direct Purchase (yang notabene memberikan marjin yang lebih kuat dan strong brand recognition), meyakinkan kami akan kondisi neraca keuangan dan likuiditas masih mampu tersokong. Ekspansi toko yang masih on track. Tahun ini, LPPF merencanakan untuk membuka 6-8 gerai baru, dengan mayoritas pembukaan gerai baru tersebut masih berada di Jawa (Jawa: 35.1%, vs. Luar Jawa: 49.1%, vs. Jabodetabek: 15.8%). Dengan ekspektasi terhadap membaiknya daya beli (salah satu penyebabnya adalah bullishnya harga komoditas), kami memprediksi SSSG pada tahun ini sebesar 7.5.% ( 16E: 6.5% ). Valuasi dan Rekomendasi: Kami masih optimis kinerja LPPF lebih baik pada tahun ini, seiring dengan mulai meredanya kekhawatiran para investor terutama menyangkut investasi tambahan pada lini bisnis e-commerce, menyusul harga saham yang mulai naik sebesar 16.5%. Secara historis, LPPF diperdagangkan pada 5-years PE sebesar 22.6x, sedangkan pada saat ini, LPPF hanya diperdagangkan dengan PE sebesar 16.6x. BUY. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp15,675 per share) Y/E Dec (Rp bn) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F Revenue 6,753 7,926 9,006 10,908 11,925 13,270 EBITDA 3,308 3,718 3,957 4,290 4,930 5,899 Net profit 1,147 1,448 1,772 2,131 2,440 2,760 EPS (Rp) EBITDA margin (%) 28% 28% 27% 25% 25% 26% BV/Share (Rp) PBV (x) Dividend per Share (1) EV/EBITDA Dividend Yield (%) 1.0% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2% P/E (x)

2 Rp Bn Matahari Department Store Figure 1. Sales Performance and SSSG 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, F 2017F 2018F 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% SSSG Sales Source : Company, SSI Research Figure 2. PE Band Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PER - Roll ST dev +2 ST dev -2 Source : Bloomberg, Company, SSI Research Figure 3. Sector Valuation Company Rec Source : Bloomberg, Company, SSI Research Last Target Market Cap P/E PEG EV/EBITD A ROE (%) EPS CAGR (%) Price (Rp) Price (Rp) (Rpbn) 17E 17E 17E 17E 16E-19E RALS BUY 1,225 1,565 8, MAPI BUY 5,300 6,700 7, ACES BUY 800 1,000 14, LPPF BUY 15,675 21,300 44, Sector Average Page 2 of 5

3 Figure 4. Store Layout Source : Various Sources Page 3 of 5

4 Key Financials Profit and Loss Cash Flow Rp bn 15A 16E 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Revenue 9,006 10,908 11,925 13,270 Net income 1,772 2,131 2,440 2,760 COGS (3,336) (4,050) (4,304) (4,573) Depreciation & amort. 206 (210) (2) (3) Gross profit 5,670 6,858 7,621 8,697 Others Gross margin (%) 63% 63% 64% 66% Working capital (127) Operating profit 2,329 2,684 3,012 3,407 Operating cash flow 1,902 2,108 2,534 2,857 Operating margin (%) 26% 25% 25% 26% Net - Capital expenditure (358) (501) (934) (510) EBITDA 2,569 2,966 3,308 3,718 Investing cash flow (529) (1,005) (928) (506) EBITDA margin (%) 29% 27% 28% 28% Net - Borrowings (410) Other income (expenses) 0 (150) 0 0 Other financing (839) (983) (1,175) (1,329) Pre-tax profit 2,236 2,478 2,835 3,249 Financing cash flow (1,249) (983) (1,175) (1,329) Income tax - net (464) (348) (395) (488) Net - Cash flow ,023 Net profit 1,772 2,131 2,440 2,760 Cash at beginning ,066 1,498 Net profit margin (%) 20% 20% 20% 21% Cash at ending 947 1,066 1,498 2,520 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Cash & ST Investment 938 1,066 1,498 2,520 ROE (%) 160% 98% 72% 58% Receivables ROA (%) 46% 38% 35% 32% Inventories 1,008 1,284 1,333 1,433 Revenue growth (%) 14% 21% 9% 11% Others EBITDA growth (%) 10% 15% 12% 12% Total current assets 2,264 2,766 3,275 4,471 EPS growth (%) 22% 20% 15% 13% Net fixed assets 877 1,587 2,524 3,037 Interest coverage (x) Other assets 739 1,242 1,235 1,231 Debt to equity (%) Total assets 3,879 5,596 7,035 8,738 Net gearing (%) Payables 1,704 2,069 2,199 2,336 ST. debt and curr. maturity Major Assumptions Other current liabilities ,110 15A 16E 17E 18E LT Bank Loans SSSG (%) Other long term liabilities Average Store Size (sqm 6,287 6,385 6,383 6,336 Total liabilities 2,773 3,415 3,634 3,958 Productivity/sqm (Rp Bn) Total equity 1,106 2,180 3,400 4,780 Inventory days Page 4 of 5

5 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research,Strategy, Banking, Consumer Rangga Cipta Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id Head of Institutional Marketing Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id Wahyudi Budiono Dealer wahyudi.budiyono@samuel.co.id Equity Sales Team Kelvin Siwah Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id Indra S. Affandi Institutional Equity Sales indra.siswandi@samuel.co.id Lucia Irawati Head of Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id Ferry Khusaeri Equity Sales ferry.khusaeri@samuel.co.id Iwan Setiadi Equity Sales iwan.setiadi@samuel.co.id Lia Chaterina Equity Sales liachaterina@samuel.co.id Amelia Sintama Equity Sales amelia@samuel.co.id Salt World Widjaja Equity Sales salt@samuel.co.id Jovita Widjaja Equity Sales jovita.widjaja@samuel.co.id James Wihardja Equity Sales james.wihardja@samuel.co.id Joseph Soegandhi Equity Sales joseph.soegandhi@samuel.co.id Dian Anggraeni Equity Sales dian.anggraeni@samuel.co.id Sylviawati Equity Sales sylviawati@samuel.co.id Verawati Gunawan Equity Sales verawati.gunawan@samuel.co.id Cenni Liawisusi Equity Sales cenni.liawisusi@samuel.co.id Frans Ferdiansah Equity Sales frans.ferdiansah@samuel.co.id Muhamad Faisyal Dealer m.faisal@samuel.co.id Wulan Budi Setyowati Dealer wulan.setyowati@samuel.co.id Bismar Ferryaman Dealer bismar.ferryaman@samuel.co.id Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head Of Marketing OLT nugroho@samuel.co.id Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id Rina Lestari Customer Service rina.lestari@samuel.co.id Martha Lamtiurma Tampubolon Customer Service martha.lamtiurma@samuel.co.id Mohamad Andhika Prasetia Customer Service andhika@samuel.co.id DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia. Page 5 of 5