Riset Teknikal Saham Harian

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1 Analisa Teknikal Riset Teknikal Saham Harian Samuel Research 05 Oktober 2017 Potensi Technical Correction Sehat Dengan Candlestick Doji, IHSG berpotensi mengawali Technical Correction sehat atau Throwback untuk kembali menguji level 5,910 yang saat ini menjadi Support. IHSG wajar mencapai 6,000 dalam 1-2 minggu. Kenaikan IHSG mendekati 6,000 di awal Breakout (minggu ini) akan terlihat terlalu cepat dan kurang stabil (Uptrend-nya). Technical Analyst meyakini Breakout IHSG valid dan sedang berada di awal Uptrend. Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Coal, Mineral, Industrial Area dan Residential. Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Auto dan Poultry. Waspadai sektor : Media dan Cement. Day Trading Recommendation Buy : ADRO, DOID, ITMG, LSIP dan PGAS Sell : PTBA, UNRV dan PTPP Charts : ITMG, LSIP, DOID dan UNVR Swing Trading Recommendation Add : No Change Drop : BBTN Concern : MAPI Commodity Related : Oil&Gas (AKRA, ELSA, BRPT, MEDC), Heavy Equipment (UNTR) Consumer Related : Retail (MAPI) Infrastructure Related : Telecom (TLKM), Toll (JSMR) Interest Related : Bank (BBCA, BBRI) Page 1 of 7

2 Day Trading Recommendation (No Holding Overnight) Saham Last Price Daily Signals Daily Target Cut Loss % Target Supp.1 Supp.2 Resist.1 Resist.2 ADRO 1825 Buy % DOID 930 Buy % ITMG Buy % LSIP 1450 Buy % PGAS 1,525 Buy % 1,510 1,490 1,550 1,580 PTBA 10,650 Sell % 10,560 10,470 10,760 10,870 UNVR 50,900 Sell % 50,770 50,630 51,090 51,280 PTPP 2,670 Sell % 2,600 2,530 2,710 2,750 ADRO, DOID dan ITMG berpotensi mengakhiri Technical Correction dan melanjutkan Uptrend LSIP berpotensi mengakhiri Bottoming dan mengawali Uptrend PGAS berpeluang naik sebagai bagian dari Bullish Revesal UNVR, PTBA dan PGAS berpotensi Technical Correction singkat (Buy on Weakness) Swing Trading Recommendation (Follow Uptrend To The End) Stock Trend Daily Signals Latest Close % Change Since Add Estimated Target % Upside Potential Since Last Close 1st Add Date UNTR Uptrend Buy 33, % 36, % 7-Sep-17 BRPT Downtrend Buy 2, % 2, % 22-Aug-17 MEDC Downtrend Buy % 1, % 18-Jul-17 MAPI Downtrend Buy 6, % 7, % 3-Mar-17 AKRA Uptrend Sell 7, % 7, % 2-Oct-17 ELSA Uptrend Buy % % 20-Sep-17 TLKM Downtrend Buy 4, % 5, % 23-May-17 JSMR Uptrend Buy 5, % 6, % 8-May-17 BBCA Uptrend Buy 20, % 22, % 23-Mar-17 BBRI Uptrend Sell 15, % 16, % 26-Apr-17 MAPI masuk ke saham yang perlu diwaspadai BBTN dikeluarkan dari Swing Trading Recommendation Page 2 of 7

3 Selected Recommendation Charts ITMG (Rp19,875) : Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp26,000 Setelah Breakout Rp22,000 ITMG berpotensi mengakhiri Technical Correction sejak mid Jul'17 dengan naik menuju Rp22,000 dan Breakout untuk mengawali Uptrend menuju Rp26,000. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp18,100 LSIP (Rp1,450) : Menuju Rp1,550 Untuk Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp1,700 LSIP berpotensi naik menuju Rp1,550 dimana ada potensi Breakout untuk kemudian mengakhiri Downtrend dan mengawali Uptrend yang berpotensi menuju Rp1,700. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp1,400 Page 3 of 7

4 DOID (Rp930) : Mengawali Uptrend Menuju Rp1,300 Dengan Breakout Rp950 DOID berpeluang mengawali Uptrend menuju Rp1,300 paska Breakout Rp950 dalam waktu dekat. DOID setidaknya naik mendekati Rp1,100. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp840 UNVR (Rp50,900) Sell : Technical Correction Singkat. Dalam Uptrend Menuju Rp53,000 UNVR mempertahankan Uptrend menuju Rp53,000 paska Breakout Rp49,000. Waspadai penurunan di bawah Rp49,000 Page 4 of 7

5 Sectoral Movement Benchmark 1D %Ch 5D %Ch IHSG Staples % 40.0% 0.0% 40.0% Cigarettes % 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% FMCG % 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% Poultry % 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% Discretionary (0.00) % 26.7% 26.7% 26.7% Auto % 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% Healthcare (0.57) % 50.0% 0.0% 50.0% Pharmacy % 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% Retail % 0.0% 50.0% 33.3% Media (1.12) % 33.3% 33.3% 33.3% Infrastructure % 14.3% 14.3% 35.7% Cement % 0.0% 33.3% 33.3% Telecom 0.63 (1.26) 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% Construction % 25.0% 0.0% 50.0% Industrial Area % 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% Toll % 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% Interest % 27.3% 13.6% 27.3% Banking % 30.8% 15.4% 38.5% Residential % 22.2% 11.1% 11.1% Commodity % 21.1% 0.0% 31.6% Coal % 12.5% 0.0% 37.5% CPO 2.44 (0.66) 33.3% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% Mineral % 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Oil&Gas 0.69 (0.53) 20.0% 40.0% 0.0% 40.0% Commodity Related dan Infrastructure Related masih layak menjadi pilihan utama hari ini Sektor yang layak dipilih adalah : Coal, Mineral, Industrial Area dan Residential Sektor untuk Bottom Fishing adalah : Auto dan Poultry Waspadai sektor : Media dan Cement Page 5 of 7

6 Technical Analysis Glossary Support : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan penurunan lebih lanjut Resistance Breakout Breakdown Throwback Pullback Technical Rebound : Level harga dimana berpotensi menahan kenaikan lebih lanjut : Pergerakan harga melewati Resistance dari bawah ke atas. Mengindikasikan Uptrend : Pergerakan harga melewati Support dari atas ke bawah. Mengindikasikan Downtrend : Penurunan paksa terjadi Breakout dimana maksimum penurunan adalah Support yang berasal dari Resistance yang baru saja di-breakout : Kenaikan paska terjadi Breakdown dimana maksimum kenaikan adalah Resistance yang berasal dari Support yang baru saja di-breakdown : Kenaikan sementara di tengah Downtrend. Kenaikan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari penurunan yang segera terjadi Technical Correction : Penurunan sementara di tengah Uptrend. Penurunan tersebut akan lebih kecil dari kenaikan yang segera terjadi Bullish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bearish Continuation : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya akan berlanjut Bullish Reversal Bearish Reversal Up Trendline Down Trendline Day Trading Swing Trading Bottom Fishing : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Downtrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Uptrend : Pergerakan yang mengindikasikan Uptrend sebelumnya berubah menjadi Downtrend : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend : Support Diagonal ke arah atas yang menandakan pergerakan Uptrend : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period selama 1 hari sampai 2 minggu : Strategi trading dengan Holding Period sampai 3 bulan : Strategi trading dengan membeli saham yang telah turun cukup dalam Page 6 of 7

7 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer Rangga Cipta Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Nadya Swastika Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading Wahyu Widodo Marketing Aben Epapras Marketing DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 7 of 7

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