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1 RISET SAHAM HARIAN Samuel Equity Research Wednesday, 13 April 2016 Market Activity Wednesday, 13 Apr 2016 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 4,829.6 : (+0.9%) : 3,729 Mn shrs : 3,969 Bn rupiah Leading Movers UNVR 43, ASII 7, HMSP 98, BBRI 10, Lagging Movers SMRA 1, LPPF 17, AALI 16, AKRA 6, Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) GGRM 49 BMRI 61 BSDE 48 AKRA 33 SSMS 43 BBCA 27 WSKT 35 SMRA 25 UNVR 33 MNCN 14 Money Market USD/IDR 13, JIBOR O/N Infl (MoM) Dual Listing Securities TLKM ISAT EIDO World Indices DJIA 17, S&P 500 2, Euro Stoxx 2, MSCI World 1, Nikkei 15, Hang Seng 20, Commodities WTI Oil CPO Malay 2, Coal Newc Nickel 8, Tin 16, Harga minyak melonjak 4.5% Bursa AS ditutup menguat cukup signifikan semalam dengan S&P % dan Dow +0.94% seiring rally pada saham-saham sektor energi yang didorong oleh penguatan harga minyak. Harga minyak WTI melonjak 4.5% semalam ke level US$42.1/barel, tertinggi sejak Des 15, setelah kabar bahwa Arab Saudi dan Rusia telah menyepakati perjanjian pemotongan supply. Rally di bursa global menghiraukan sentimen negatif dari pemotongan estimasi GDP global oleh IMF menjadi 3.4% di 2016 dari 3.6%. Harga metal dunia juga turut menguat seiring harga minyak semalam dengan Nickel +3.5% dan Timah +0.3%. Sementara ETF Indonesia di bursa US (EIDO) ditutup menguat 1.8% semalam. Pagi ini, mayoritas bursa Asia dibuka menguat memfaktorkan penguatan bursa global semalam dan lonjakan harga minyak dunia. Pagi ini Rupiah juga dibuka menguat ke level Rp13,098/US$. Seiring positifnya sentimen dari bursa global dan komoditas, IHSG diperkirakan akan dibuka menguat hari ini dengan saham-saham sektor komoditas berpotensi menguat seiring kenaikan harga komoditas. Highlights BBNI : Laba bersih inline ADRO : Cari pinjaman dana ESSA : Mengantongi hutang US$49,4 juta KRAS : Ketiga proyeknya molor Cement : Konsumsi semen tumbuh 5.3% YoY di 3M16 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.

2 BBNI: Laba bersih inline Laba bersih 1Q16 tercatat Rp 2,97 triliun (24% dan 27% dari estimasi kami dan konsensus untuk FY16) atau relatif inline. Outstanding loan naik 21% menjadi Rp 327 triliun dengan NIM turun sekitar 40 bps menjadi 6,1%. Kualitas kredit memburuk dengan NPL gross meningkat dari 2,1% pada 1Q15, 2,7% pada 4Q15, menjadi 2,8% pada 1Q16. Sejumlah kredit bermasalah tengah direstrukturisasi, termasuk kredit ke PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk (TRIO) sekitar Rp 1,3 triliun. Coverage ratio akan dijaga sekitar 150% di tahun ini. Manajemen BBNI akan menurunkan suku bunga acuan secara bertahap hingga mencapai single digit. (Kontan, BBNI). Comment: Dorongan OJK terhadap bank terutama bank besar untuk menurunkan suku bunga kredit telah dilakukan melalui pembatasan bunga deposito, rencana penurunan suku bunga kredit mikro (KUR) lebih lanjut, dan rencana pemberian insentif bagi bank yang berhasil menurunkan NIM dan/atau BOPO. Hal ini tampak direspon oleh bank-bank dalam coverage kami dengan berencana menurunkan suku bunga kreditnya secara bertahap. Kami menilai, dalam jangka pendek penurunan suku bunga kredit dan NIM dapat menurunkan profitabilitas bank. Namun dalam jangka panjang marjin yang lebih kecil itu akan diimbangi oleh kenaikan volume kredit. Untuk BBNI, penurunan NIM telah terjadi (1Q16: 6,1%, FY15: 6,4%, 1Q15: 6,5%) dan diperkirakan sekitar 5,5-6% di tahun ini. Penurunan NIM itu akan diupayakan untuk diimbangi oleh penurunan biaya overhead seperti biaya IT dan biaya sewa (gedung sewa dikonversi menjadi milik sendiri). Suku bunga kredit akan diturunkan secara bertahap, namun jenis kredit tertentu seperti medium loan membutuhkan waktu cukup lama untuk mencapai single digit. Rekomendasi terakhir kami adalah Buy dengan target price Rp Saat ini kami sedang mereview kembali. BBNI: BUY; 16E PE: 7.7x, PBV: 1.3x. ADRO: Cari pinjaman dana Konsorsium ADRO melalui PT Bhimasena Power Indonesia menargetkan financial closing proyek PLTU Batang pada 6 Juni mendatang. Pinjaman bank yang dibutuhkan sekitar USD 3,2 miliar atau 80% dari total investasi. PLN memberikan tambahan waktu untuk memenuhi batas waktu pembiayaan lantaran sejumlah aktivitas terkait lahan banyak yang terlambat. Tahun ini, ADRO menargetkan produksi batubara juta ton atau naik dari 51,4 juta ton pada tahun lalu. (Investor Daily) ADRO: Under Review; 16E PE: 12.4x, PBV: 0.5x. Page 2 of 7

3 ESSA: Mengantongi hutang US$49,4 juta PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk. (ESSA) menandatangani perjanjian kredit dengan Standard Chartered Bank senilai US$49,4 juta. Fasilitas kredit tersebut merupakan bagian dari pendanaan proyek pabrik amonia, yang digarap oleh anak usaha ESSA, PT Panca Amara Utama. Panca Amara tengah membangun pabrik amonia di Kabupaten Banggai, Sulawesi Tengah, dengan kapasitas produksi mencapai ton per hari, dan proyek tersebut sudah groundbreaking pada Agustus 2015 dengan nilai investasi sebesar US$830 juta. (Investor Daily) ESSA: Non-coverage, 16E PE: N/Ax, PBV: N/Ax. Cement: Konsumsi semen domestik tumbuh 5.3% YoY di 3M16 Konsumsi semen domestik di 3M16 tumbuh 5.3% YoY atau mencapai 14.4 juta ton. Hal ini seiring konsumsi semen domestik di Mar 16 mencapai 4.77 juta ton atau tumbuh 3.6% YoY dan 7.2% MoM. Konsumsi semen di pasar Jawa turun 1.5% YoY menjadi hanya 2.59 juta ton sementara di Sumatera dan Sulawesi masing-masing tumbuh 1.3% dan 19% YoY. (Investor Daily). Comment: Realisasi konsumsi di 3M16 masih sesuai dengan ekspektasi kami dengan pencapaian sebesar 22.4% dari asumsi total volume di 2016 yang tumbuh 7% YoY. Secara historis, konsumsi semen di bulan Januari menyumbang sekitar 20-23% terhadap total volume tahun tersebut. Cement Sector: Neutral. 35% 30% Monthly Domestic Sales (Mn tons) Domestic Consumption Growth (6-m mov average) 7,000 6,000 25% 5,000 20% 4,000 15% 3,000 10% 2,000 5% 1,000 0% - -5% (1,000) -10% (2,000) Page 3 of 7

4 KRAS: Ketiga proyeknya molor Tiga proyek strategis yang digarap oleh korporasi baja milik negara, PT Krakatau Steel (Persero) Tbk, mengalami kemunduran dalam hal waktu penyelesaiannya. Berdasarkan laporan tahunan 2015 perseroan, KRAS menyebutkan pembangunan pabrik Hot Strip Mill #2 itu ditargetkan selesai pada kuartal I/2019, pabrik besi spons selesai pada kuartal III/2016, dan pabrik bahan baku semen selesai pada kuartal I/2017. Berdasarkan paparan manajemen sebelumnya dalam laporan tahunan 2014, pabrik HSM #2 itu ditargetkan selesai pada 2017 pabrik besi spons selesai pada kuartal III/2015, dan pabrik pengolahan bahan baku semen ditargetkan selesai pada tahun Dengan demikian, terjadi perbedaan target penyelesaian pabrik. (Bisnis Indonesia) KRAS: Non-coverage, 16E PE: N/Ax, PBV: N/Ax. Page 4 of 7

5 Ticker Rec. JCI Wgt price 1D Chg 1M Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside Banks (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E 16E 17E BMRI HOLD (5.9) % 17.4% n/a n/a BBCA BUY (3.0) (1.9) % 17.9% n/a n/a BBRI BUY (4.5) (7.0) % 19.7% n/a n/a BBNI BUY (4.7) % 16.4% n/a n/a Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY (2.6) % 19.5% INDF BUY (2.4) % 14.0% KLBF BUY (0.7) % 19.4% ROTI BUY (0.8) % 23.3% ULTJ BUY (2.7) n/a % 22.4% UNVR HOLD % 119.1% Cigarette HMSP HOLD (3.1) % 27.9% GGRM BUY % 15.5% Healthcare Retail MIKA BUY % 17.6% SILO BUY (7.1) % 5.6% MAPI BUY (7.8) % 13.4% RALS HOLD (4.1) % 10.8% ACES BUY (1.8) (5.2) % 21.0% Telco EXCL BUY (5.9) % 9.6% ISAT HOLD (0.4) % 12.0% TLKM HOLD % 20.5% Auto and HE ASII HOLD % 17.8% UNTR HOLD (0.5) (0.2) (9.9) % 12.5% Aviation GIAA HOLD % 6.8% Property BSDE BUY % 11.8% PWON HOLD (1.0) % 21.3% KPIG BUY (3.1) (7.1) (12.4) n/a % 4.1% n/a n/a ASRI HOLD (1.0) % 10.1% SMRA BUY (4.2) (7.5) (10.6) % 11.0% Construction PTPP HOLD (3.6) (2.1) % 23.2% ADHI HOLD (0.9) % 8.6% WSKT BUY % 10.0% WIKA BUY % 16.4% Cement INTP BUY (2.0) (10.0) % 19.9% SMGR BUY (0.5) (7.9) % 17.9% SMCB HOLD % 1.1% Utility PGAS BUY (0.9) % 12.9% JSMR BUY % 13.7% Coal and Metal ANTM SELL % 1.9% INCO BUY (3.7) % 4.2% TINS HOLD (0.6) % 6.0% ITMG BUY % 12.8% ADRO HOLD (2.1) (4.1) % 4.8% PTBA BUY % 17.7% Plantation AALI HOLD (2.1) (6.0) % 11.1% LSIP BUY % 11.7% SIMP BUY % 4.1% Poultry PE PBV ROE EV/EBITDA (x) CPIN HOLD % 19.4% n/a n/a JPFA BUY % 14.2% MAIN HOLD (8.9) % 12.6% n/a n/a Other Sectors AKRA BUY (1.9) (17.5) (9.8) % 15.9% Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, INCO report in USD. Page 5 of 7

6 Regional Indices 1D Change Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World , (1.12) (7.22) 1,814 1,460 U.S. (S&P) , (1.47) 2,135 1,810 U.S. (DOW) , (1.42) 18,351 15,370 Europe , (4.28) (4.26) (9.96) (23.16) 3,836 2,673 Emerging Market (20.22) 1, FTSE , n/a 7,123 5,500 CAC , (3.27) (1.05) (6.28) (17.29) 5,284 3,892 Dax , (0.71) (2.00) (9.14) (20.89) 12,388 8,699 Indonesia , (0.77) (0.59) (11.34) 5,487 4,034 Japan , (5.96) (10.09) (16.31) (19.98) 20,953 14,866 Australia , (2.85) 0.63 (5.23) (15.79) 5,996 4,707 Korea , (5.60) 2,190 1,801 Singapore , (0.50) 4.38 (2.36) (19.22) 3,550 2,528 Malaysia (0.28) 1,715 (0.02) (0.54) (0.18) (6.90) 1,868 1,504 Hong Kong , (6.43) (26.81) 28,589 18,279 China (10.31) 3,024 (0.34) 0.51 (0.96) (14.57) (26.64) 5,178 2,638 Taiwan (31.41) 8,531 (0.37) 0.48 (1.46) (2.01) (11.75) 10,014 7,203 Thailand , (1.06) (0.57) (10.49) 1,575 1,221 Philipines , (9.50) 8,130 6,084 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) (0.04) (5.61) (23.47) (35.57) (13.44) Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a n/a (3.63) Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.19 n/a (80.21) (80.21) (0.09) US Fed Rate (%) Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (1.68) (3.72) (12.73) (14.34) Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia (14.00) (0.40) (0.98) 14,736 12,805 Japan (0.11) (0.54) UK (0.18) (3.12) (3.12) (2.73) Euro (0.11) (0.11) China (0.08) (0.03) (3.83) Commodities Indicators 1D Change Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil (0.33) (0.74) (23.42) CPO (29.00) 2, (1.09) (2.66) (4.28) , , Rubber Coal (2.43) 2.34 (0.69) (8.05) Iron Ore (15.24) Tin , , , Nickel , (29.82) 14, , Copper , (0.18) (4.09) (21.07) 6, , Gold (2.90) 1, (0.23) (0.23) , , Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Page 6 of 7

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