Company Update Bloomberg: DOID.IJ Reuters: DOID.JK Samuel Equity Research 21 March 2017 Target Price Rp 1,050 Last Price Rp 785 Potential Upside 34% JCI Index 5,427 Share isued (bn) 8.33 Market Cap. (Rp tn) 6.29 52-Weeks High/Low 810/95 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 85.37 Free Float 60.6% Nominal Value Rp 50 Book value/share 17 Relative to JCI Chart 260 160 Company Background Shareholder Structure BUY (Maintain) JCI DOID 60 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Rp312 PT Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) merupakan perusahaan induk dengan fokus investasi di jasa pertambangan. Serta, anak usahnya PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri (BUMA) yang merupakan salah satu kontraktor pertambangan terbesar di Indonesia Northstar Tambang Persada Ltd 39.3% Others 0.1% Public 60.6% Sharlita Malik +62 21 2854 8339 sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id Strong Result FY 16 Dilatarbelakangi kinerja FY 16 yang diatas estimasi, meningkatnya Overburden removal (OB), dan harga batubara yang lebih stabil kami estimasikan EBITDA DOID akan membaik di 2017F. Merekomendasikan BUY dengan meningkatkan TP menjadi Rp 1,050 merefleksikan PE 17 8.4x. Kinerja FY 16 diatas estimasi. DOID membukukan laba bersih positif di FY16 sebesar USD 37 juta (FY 15: Rugi Bersih USD 8 juta). Laba bersih ini diatas estimasi, mencerminkan 108% dari estimasi kami. Sejalan dengan level top line, pendapatan DOID meningkat 8% yoy menjadi USD 611 juta. Dengan adanya kontrak baru yang signifikan di 2016, serta didukung dengan harga batubara yang membaik DOID mampu membukukan kinerja positif di FY 16. Overburden removal (OB) 2017F naik 29.8% yoy. Hingga Dec 16, DOID mencatatkan peningkatan OB sebesar 10% yoy, mencapai 299.8 juta bcm. Didukung dengan adanya kontrak baru dari ADRO (hingga 2020) dan Angsana Jaya (hingga 2018), DOID berpotensi meningkatkan produksi. Kami estimasikan 2017F OB akan meningkat 29.8% yoy menjadi 361 juta bcm. Disisi lain, ekstraksi batubara DOID, kami estimasikan meningkat 31% yoy menjadi 46 juta ton. Peningkatan EBITDA 2017F seiring penguatan harga batubara. Dilatarbelakangi meningkatnya OB (+29.8% yoy), harga batubara yang lebih stabil (USD 65/ton), pengurangan diskon tarif yang disertai efisiensi biaya (cash cost 2017F USD 1.05/ton), DOID berpeluang memiliki marjin EBITDA yang lebih tinggi di 2017F. Kami asumsikan EBITDA marjin mencapai 35.6% di FY 17F (FY16: 35%, FY15: 33%). Serta laba bersih 2017 kami estimasikan naik mencapai USD 79 juta (16A: USD 37 juta, 15A: rugi bersih USD 8 juta). Rekomendasi Buy. Kami meningkatkan TP dari 850 menjadi 1.050 ( +21%) seiring dengan peningkatan kontrak hingga 2020 serta asumsi neraca keuangan DOID yang bertumbuh solid. Kami menggunakan pendekatan DCF dan merekomendasikan Buy untuk DOID, merefleksikan 17E valuasi di 4.8x EV/EBITDA dan 8.4x PE. Adupun resiko investasi terletak pada 1) berkurangnya kontrak akibat melemahnya harga batubara ke bawah $60/ton, 2) biaya produksi yang lebih mahal dari estimasi. Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp785 per share) Y/E Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Sales 566 611 732 831 EBITDA 187 216 260 302 Net Profit (8) 37 79 101 EPS (US$/sh) (0.001) 0.004 0.009 0.012 BV per share (US$/Sh) 0.010 0.015 0.024 0.037 EV/EBITDA (x) 3.2 4.6 3.6 2.9 P/E Ratio (x) (4.0) 12.9 6.3 4.9 P/BV Ratio (x) 0.4 3.8 2.4 1.6 www.samuel.co.id
Figure 1. Financial performance FY 16 q-q y-y FY16/ FY16/ (In Mil USD) 3Q16 4Q16 (%) 2015 2016 (%) 2016F 2016 Cons Revenue 159 193 21.4% 565 611 8.1% COGS (111) (128) 15.3% (439) (447) 1.8% Gross Profit 48 65 35.4% 126 164 30.2% Operating expenses (22) (72) 219.6% (38) (42) 8.6% Operating profit 26 (7) -125.8% 88 122 39.6% Interest income (14) 0.2-101.4% 2 1-54.8% Interest expense 14 19 32.5% (46) (53) 16.2% Net interest inc/ (exp) 1 19 2653.6% (44) (52) 19.9% Other income (exp) 70 (3) -104.2% (49) (9) -81.6% Pre-tax profit 96 22-76.9% (5) 61 NA Taxation (8) (10) 32.5% (3) (24) NA Net income 89 12-86.5% (8) 37 NA 108% 108% Operating Margin 16.1% -3.4% 15.5% 20.0% Pre-tax Margin 60.6% 11.5% -0.9% 10.0% Net Margin 55.7% 6.2% -1.3% 6.1% Source: Company,SSI Research Figure 2. Figure Changes 2017F 2018F (USD mn) Old New % Old New % Revenue 711 732 3% 760 831 9% Gross Profit 192 201 5% 211 237 12% EBIT 146 164 13% 162 200 23% Net Profit 67 79 18% 81 101 25% Gross Margin (%) 26.0 27.5 6% 27.8 28.6 3% EBIT Margin (%) 20.5 22.5 10% 21.3 24.1 13% Net Margin (%) 9.4 10.8 15% 10.7 12.1 13% Key Assumptions: Coal Production (mn ton) 38 46 20% 42 48 14% Overburden volume (mn 355 361 2% 372 408 10% Blended tariff (USD/BCM) 1.73 1.73 0% 1.75 1.75 0% Blended Cash cost (USD/BCM) 1.05 1.05 0% 1.06 1.06 0% Source: Company,SSI Research www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5
Figure 3. OB and coal removal mn tons and average rate USD/ton 2012-2018E OB and coal removal mn tons (LHS) Average rate USD/ton (RHS) 480 440 400 360 320 280 240 200 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016A 2017E 2018E $2.00 $1.95 $1.90 $1.85 $1.80 $1.75 $1.70 $1.65 $1.60 Figure 4. Revenue USD mn and EBITDA margin 2012 2017E Revenue USD mn EBITDA USD mn EBITDA margin (RHS) $900 $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016A 2017E 2018E 40.0% 36.0% 32.0% 28.0% 24.0% 20.0% Figure 5. Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage, and Net Gearing ratios 2012-2017E Net gearing (RHS) Debt/EBITDA (x) Interest coverage (x) 6.0 1200% 5.0 1000% 4.0 800% 3.0 600% 2.0 400% 1.0 200% 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 0% www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5
DELTA DUNIA Profit and Loss Statement Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Revenue 566 611 732 831 Net Income (8) 37 79 101 COGS 440 447 531 594 Depreciation & amort. 71 41 93 100 Gross profit 126 164 201 237 Others (26) 17 (20) 0 Gross margin (%) 22.2 26.8 27.5 28.6 Working capital 9 48 (27) (10) Operating profit 87 122 164 200 Operating Cash Flow 45 134 125 191 Operating margin (%) 15.5 20.0 22.5 24.1 Net - Capital expenditure (23) (34) (150) (150) EBITDA 187 216 260 302 Investing Cash Flow 11 (66) (89) (115) EBITDA margin (%) 33.0 35.3 35.6 36.4 Net Change In Debt (66) (67) (102) (75) Other Income (Expenses) (93) (42) (43) (45) Others financing 5 10 (0) 3 Pre-tax profit (6) 61 121 155 Financing Cash Flow (61) (61) (52) (72) Income tax - net (3) (24) (42) (54) Net Cash Flow (4) (4) (15) 4 Net profit (8) 37 79 101 Cash Beginning 75 71 67 52 Net profit margin (%) (1.5) 6.1 10.8 12.1 Cash Ending 71 67 52 55 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Cash & ST Investment 71 67 52 55 ROE -9.8% 29.3% 38.9% 33.2% Receivables 139 146 146 165 ROA -1.0% 4.2% 9.4% 11.5% Inventories 20 18 20 20 Revenue Growth (%) (6.9) 8.0 19.8 13.5 Others 37 49 43 43 EBITDA Growth (%) 0.4 15.7 20.6 16.1 Total Current Assets 308 299 291 313 EPS Growth (%) (150.5) n.a 112.4 27.9 Net fixed assets 379 406 429 479 Interest coverage (x) 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.5 Other assets 145 177 116 80 Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.6 2.8 1.9 1.4 Total Assets 832 882 836 873 Net Gearing (%) 698.8 427.2 223.5 123.3 Payables 52 107 74 83 ST. debt and curr. maturity 50 106 69 47 Major Assumptions Other current liabilities 26 33 19 19 Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E LT. debt 614 501 436 382 Rupiah avg. (USD/IDR) 13,400 13,600 13,200 12,800 Other long term liabilities 30 35 38 41 Newcastle price US$/ton 59 60 65 65 Total Liabilities 747 756 617 553 Overburden (MnTons) 273 300 361 408 Total Equity 85 126 203 304 Coal getting (MnTons) 33 35 46 48 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 5
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148 Rangga Cipta Economist rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396 Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392 Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387 Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339 Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338 Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395 Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325 Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150 Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146 Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173 Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372 Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371 Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 5