z Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Bursa saham global turun pada hari Kamis, sementara dolar menguat, menekan harga minyak dan komoditas, setelah investor melihat kemungkinan The Fed menaikkan suku bunganya dalam waktu dekat ini. Pernyataan Presiden Fed New York William Dudley semalam yang mengatakan ekonomi dapat cukup kuat untuk menjamin kenaikan suku bunga di bulan Juni atau Juli kian memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga Fed pasca rilis FOMC minutes di hari Rabu sebelumnya. Laporan CME FedWatch menunjukkan peluang sebesar 32% bagi Fed menaikkan suku bunga di bulan Juni, naik dari 15% ekspektasinya di hari Selasa sebelumnya. Sementara mayoritas pelaku pasar saat ini memprediksi kenaikan di bulan Juli. Bursa global merosot 0,9%, catat penurunan dalam 3 sesi berturut-turut. Harga emas turun 0,4% dan sentuh level terendah 3 pekan. Jumat 20 Mei 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 13.00 DE Producer Prices MM Apr 0.2 % 0.0 15.00 EZ Current Account NSA Eur Mar N/A B 11.1 15.00 EZ Current Account SA Eur Mar N/A B 19.0 17.00 GB CBI Trends Orders May -13 IND -11 19.30 CA CPI Inflation MM Apr 0.3 % 0.6 19.30 CA CPI MM SA Apr N/A % 0.2 19.30 CA Retail Sales MM Mar -0.6 % 0.4 21.00 US Existing Home Sales Apr 5.40 M 5.33 21.00 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Apr 1.3 % 5.1 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia (021) 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= Cndl; EUR=; Bid 20/05/2016; 1,1202; 1,1208; 1,1192; 1,1199 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 20/05/2016; 1,1308 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 20/05/2016; 1,1326 1.1464 1.1614 25/02/2016-26/05/2016 (GMT) Price 1,15 1,14 1,13 Value 50 1.0820 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 20/05/2016; 25,350 1.1142 1.1178 @her1en 1,12 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 Pergerakan dapat lanjut tekanan Dekati trendline dibawahnya RSI flat (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 20/05/2016; -0,0296 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Feb 16 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May 19 1.1215 1.1229 1.1181 48 1.1200 20 1.1220 May 18 1.1315 1.1325 1.1213 112 1.1220 95 1.1315 May 17 1.1315 1.1347 1.1303 44 1.1315 FLAT 1.1315 May 16 1.1315 1.1342 1.1303 39 1.1315 FLAT 1.1315 May 13 1.1375 1.1380 1.1283 97 1.1315 60 1.1375 1.1347 1.1181 1.1614 1.1181 1.1464 1.1218 1.1614 1.0711 (17/May) (19/May) (03/May) (19/May) (12/Apr) (25/Apr) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.1476 High May 06 1.1380 High May 13 1.1325 High May 18 1.1288 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1166 Low Mar 29 1.1055 Reaction low on daily chart 1.0769 Low Jan 07 1.0709 Low Jan 05 BUY ----- SELL 1.1225 STOP LOSS 1.1285 1.1155 1.1125
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Reli masih berupaya uji resistance di 110.65 Pola symmetrical triangle dengan trendline support di sekitar 109.25 (Research @ErwinRiset) May 19 110.15 110.37 109.71 66 109.95 25 110.20 May 18 109.00 110.25 108.74 151 110.20 115 109.05 May 17 109.10 109.64 108.85 79 109.05 10 108.95 May 16 108.60 109.09 108.48 61 108.95 35 108.60 May 13 109.10 109.48 108.52 96 108.60 40 109.00 110.37 108.48 110.25 105.55 112.58 106.58 121.68 105.55 (19/May) (16/May) (18/May) (03/May) (01/Apr) (29/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 113.80 High 29/Mar/2016 (Peak) 112.58 High 01/Apr/2016 111.90 Horizontal resistance 110.70 Pivot line (1-H chart) 109.25 Trendline support 108.24 Horizontal support 107.45 Pivot line (1-H chart) 107.00 Low 09/May/2016 BUY 109.55 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 108.75 110.50 111.10
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Area trendline resistance dapat dipecahkan Target uptick di 1.4800 (SMA200) Waspadai RSI dekat zona overbought (Research @ErwinRiset) May 19 1.4595 1.4661 1.4562 99 1.4605 15 1.4590 May 18 1.4455 1.4634 1.4403 231 1.4590 125 1.4465 May 17 1.4445 1.4524 1.4395 129 1.4465 70 1.4395 May 16 1.4355 1.4416 1.4333 83 1.4395 25 1.4370 May 13 1.4445 1.4457 1.4341 116 1.4370 80 1.4450 1.4661 1.4333 1.4769 1.4333 1.4669 1.4007 1.4813 1.3837 (19/May) (16/May) (03/May) (16/May) (29/Apr) (06/Apr) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) ANALYSIS & 1.4914 High 12/Dec/2015 1.4813 High 04/Jan/2016 (Reaction high) 1.4769 High 03/May/2016 (Peak) 1.4661 High 19/May/2016 1.4559 Low 19/May/2016 1.4400 Low 18/May/2016 1.4330 Low 16/May/2016 (Bottom) 1.4298 Low 21/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 1.4575 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.4500 1.4680 1.4725
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Reli berlanjut dekati level paritas 1.0 Waspadai RSI sudah overbought (78) Trendline support di 0.9850 (Research @ErwinRiset) May 19 0.9880 0.9921 0.9863 58 0.9910 35 0.9875 May 18 0.9805 0.9881 0.9799 82 0.9875 70 0.9805 May 17 0.9780 0.9807 0.9751 56 0.9805 25 0.9780 May 16 0.9755 0.9784 0.9748 36 0.9780 35 0.9745 May 13 0.9710 0.9773 0.9701 72 0.9745 40 0.9705 0.9921 0.9748 0.9921 0.9444 0.9796 0.9498 1.0257 0.9444 (19/May) (16/May) (19/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (12/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.0197 High 03/Feb/2016 1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) 1.0000 The level of psychology 0.9921 High 19/May/2016 0.9850 Trendline support 0.9697 Low 13/May/2016 0.9648 Low 06/May/2016 0.9561 Low 05/May/2016 BUY 0.9870 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 0.9800 0.9940 0.9975
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 06/01/2016-27/05/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 20/05/2016; 0,7391 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 20/05/2016; 0,7506 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 20/05/2016; 0,7226; 0,7229; 0,7217; 0,7222 0.7680 0.7835 0.7765 Price 0,78 0,77 0,76 0.7400 0.7402 0,75 0.6824 0.6971 0.7105 @her1en 0.7173 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 20/05/2016; 27,206 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 20/05/2016; -0,0443 Value 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 0,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 0,68 Rangkaian turun level highlow Pergerakan dekati area trend channel dibawahnya RSI flat (Research @her1en) May 19 0.7220 0.7242 0.7177 65 0.7225 5 0.7230 May 18 0.7315 0.7332 0.7222 110 0.7230 100 0.7330 May 17 0.7290 0.7366 0.7283 83 0.7330 40 0.7290 May 16 0.7270 0.7308 0.7237 71 0.7290 20 0.7270 May 13 0.7315 0.7325 0.7255 70 0.7270 50 0.7320 0.7366 0.7177 0.7719 0.7177 0.7828 0.7493 0.7828 0.6828 (17/May) (19/May) (03/May) (19/May) (20/Apr) (07/Apr) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7478 High May 06 0.7402 Reaction high on daily chart 0.7332 High May 18 0.7297 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7173 Low May 19 0.7105 Reaction low on daily chart 0.7065 Reaction low on daily chart 0.6971 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 0.7240 STOP LOSS 0.7305 0.7170 0.7140
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 30/12/2015-27/05/2016 (GMT) 0.6886 0.6910 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 20/05/2016; 0,6742; 0,6743; 0,6736; 0,6738 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 20/05/2016; 0,6812 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 20/05/2016; 0,6839 0.7054 0.6939 Price 0,7 0,69 0,68 0.6230 0.6346 0.6550 0.6708 @her1en RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 20/05/2016; 35,690 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 20/05/2016; -0,0280 Value 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 0,67 0,66 0,65 0,64 0,63 0,62 Pelemahan dekati area pivot line dibawahnya Rangkaian turun level high RSI flat (Research @her1en) May 19 0.6755 0.6764 0.6712 52 0.6740 FLAT 0.6740 May 18 0.6800 0.6811 0.6729 82 0.6740 70 0.6810 May 17 0.6785 0.6842 0.6780 62 0.6810 20 0.6790 May 16 0.6770 0.6808 0.6748 60 0.6790 15 0.6775 May 13 0.6820 0.6830 0.6757 73 0.6775 40 0.6815 0.6842 0.6712 0.7053 0.6712 0.7054 0.6760 0.7054 0.6348 (17/May) (19/May) (03/May) (19/May) (19/Apr) (05/Apr) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.6939 High May 04 0.6891 High May 06 0.6842 High May 17 0.6811 High May 18 0.6708 Low May 19 0.6667 Reaction low on daily chart 0.6574 Reaction low on daily chart 0.6507 Low Feb 03 BUY ----- SELL 0.6760 STOP LOSS 0.6820 0.6690 0.6660
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Area trendline support di 123 sedang diuji Daily trend cenderung bearish (Research @ErwinRiset) May 19 123.60 123.77 122.95 82 123.15 50 123.65 May 18 123.35 123.90 122.98 92 123.65 25 123.40 May 17 123.40 124.17 123.26 91 123.40 5 123.35 May 16 122.90 123.49 122.65 84 123.35 45 122.90 May 13 124.05 124.12 122.77 135 122.90 115 124.05 124.17 122.65 124.62 121.50 128.16 121.72 132.25 121.50 (17/May) (16/May) (12/May) (06/May) (01/Apr) (18/Apr) (29/Jan) (06/May) ANALYSIS & 126.25 Pivot line 124.64 Pivot line 124.17 High 17/May/2016 (Reaction high) 123.90 High 18/May/2016 122.57 Low 16/May/2016 (Reaction low) 121.87 Low 09/May/2016 121.46 Low 06/May/2016 (Bottom) 119.08 Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 123.30 STOP LOSS 124.00 122.35 121.95
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Reli berlanjut mendekati area resistance di 1.3220 Target uptick di 1.3200 (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.2923 1.3095 1.3153 1.2834 1.3153 1.2458 1.3217 1.2495 1.4689 1.2458 (19/May) (17/May) (19/May) (03/May) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.3587 High 29/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3404 High 16/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3296 High 24/Mar/2016 (Peak) 1.3217 High 05/Apr/2016 (Peak) 1.3006 Low 19/May/2016 1.2890 Low 18/May/2016 1.2834 Low 17/May/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2768 Low 12/May/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 1.3035 SELL --- STOP LOSS 1.2935 1.3200 1.3300
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 1303.60 1282.51 1288.20 17/02/2016-25/05/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs 1.280 1.260 1200 1208.15 1226.96 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 19/05/2016; 1.257,6000; 1.260,9200; 1.244,0000; 1.254,1000 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 19/05/2016; 1.264,6061 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 19/05/2016; 1.255,5878 1244.00 @her1en RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/05/2016; 39,851 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 19/05/2016; -39,2600 Value 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Ozs Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 1.240 1.220 1.200 1.180 1.160 1.140 Ikuti area trend channel turun harian Rangkaian turun level highlow harian RSI merosot (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) May 19 1260.00 1260.92 1244.85 16.07 1254.50 2.50 1257.00 1253.75 1246.25 May 18 1279.00 1281.11 1255.59 25.52 1257.00 21.50 1278.50 1270.90 1272.90 May 17 1275.00 1282.10 1270.23 11.87 1278.50 4.00 1274.50 1270.10 1277.00 May 16 1274.00 1288.20 1271.73 16.47 1274.50 1.50 1273.00 1281.00 1285.75 May 13 1267.00 1276.20 1263.88 12.32 1273.00 6.00 1267.00 1275.15 1265.90 1288.20 1244.85 1303.60 1244.85 1296.11 1209.55 1303.60 1062.28 (16/May) (19/May) (02/May) (19/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1288.20 High May 16 1281.11 High May 18 1273.80 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1260.92 High May 19 1244.00 Low May 19 1237.65 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1231.10 Low Apr 26 1226.96 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 1257.00 STOP LOSS 1266.00 1247.00 1242.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 14.57 Cndl; XAG=; Bid 19/05/2016; 16,8500; 16,9170; 16,2900; 16,4800 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 19/05/2016; 16,9591 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 19/05/2016; 16,6184 14.75 16.14 18.00 17.58 22/02/2016-24/05/2016 (GMT) 16.29 @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 19/05/2016; 31,709 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 19/05/2016; -1,3400 Value 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Price Ozs 17,5 17 16,5 16 15,5 15 14,5 14 Pelemahan dekati area trendline dibawahnya Rangkaian turun level high RSI melemah Helpdesk closing price (16.470) previous (16.879) (Research @her1en) May 19 16.82 16.90 16.32 0.59 16.47 0.41 16.87 May 18 17.22 17.27 16.70 0.57 16.87 0.34 17.22 May 17 17.11 17.33 17.03 0.30 17.22 0.11 17.11 May 16 17.13 17.37 17.05 0.33 17.11 0.02 17.09 May 13 16.96 17.16 16.81 0.35 17.09 0.13 16.95 17.37 16.32 17.99 16.32 17.94 14.77 17.99 13.73 (16/May) (19/May) (02/May) (19/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & 17.58 High May 11 17.45 High May 12 17.28 High May 18 16.91 High May 19 16.29 Low May 19 16.14 Low Apr 19 15.88 Low Apr 14 15.77 Low Apr 12 BUY ----- SELL 16.60 STOP LOSS 16.85 16.20 16.00
Page 12 of 12 CLN6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Jun. 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLN6 19/01/2016-26/05/2016 (NYC) Cndl; CLN6; Trade Price 19/05/2016; 48,45; 48,78; 47,26; 48,77 WMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 55 19/05/2016; 44,50 EMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 20 19/05/2016; 46,26 49.56 Price Bbl 48 46 33.14 37.50 43.65 @her1en RSI; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 19/05/2016; 70,149 Value Bbl Mom; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14 19/05/2016; 2,08 Value 19 25 01 08 16 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 44 42 40 38 36 34 Bbl Koreksi dalam harian Jauhi puncak trend channel harian RSI flat Last chart price 48.91 (Research @her1en) May 19 (CLN6) 48.43 48.76 47.25 1.51 48.76 0.34 48.42 May 18 (CLN6) 49.15 49.53 48.30 1.23 48.42 0.81 49.23 May 18 (CLM6) 48.51 48.92 47.74 1.18 47.86 0.72 48.58 May 17 47.89 48.71 47.52 1.19 48.58 0.70 47.88 May 16 46.33 47.96 46.20 1.76 47.88 1.54 46.34 49.53 46.20 49.53 43.02 46.76 35.23 49.53 26.04 (18/May) (16/May) (18/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (05/Apr) (18/May) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 53.20 High Oct 12, 2015 52.04 Reaction high on daily chart 50.28 High Nov 05, 2015 49.56 High May 18 47.26 Low May 19 46.84 Low May 16 46.34 Low May 12 44.66 Low May 11 BUY ----- SELL 49.10 STOP LOSS 50.20 47.60 47.10