Company Update Nippon Indosari Corpindo Bloomberg: ROTI.IJ Reuters: ROTI.JK Samuel Research 02 Maret 2017 Target Price Rp 2,050 Last Price Rp 1,565 Potential Upside 31.0% JCI Index 5,363 Share isued (bn) 5.06 Market Cap. (Rp tn) 7.92 52-Weeks High/Low 1065/1770 Avg Daily Vol (mn) 1.06 Free Float 30.6% Nominal Value Rp 20 Book value/share 17 Relative to JCI Chart 120 100 Company Background Shareholder Structure BUY (Maintain) JCI Indoritel Makmur Internasional Tbk ROTI 80 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Rp337 PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk merupakan produsen roti terbesar di Indonesia, dan memasarkan produknya dengan merek 'Sari Roti. Marlene Tanumihardja +62 21 2854 8387 marlene@samuel.co.id 31.50% Bonlight Investments Ltd 25.12% Shikisima Corporation 8.50% Sojitz Corporation 4.25% Public 30.63% Still Baking the Buns Di tengah kondisi ekonomi dan daya beli yang lemah pada tahun lalu, ROTI berhasil mencatatkan kinerja keuangan yang memuaskan. Aksi boikot yang terjadi pada bulan bulan menjelang akhir tahun lalu tidak mempengaruhi kinerja bottom line perusahaan. Dengan beberapa katalis positif antara lain: kenaikan ASP, lebih mengoptimalkan cakupan distribusi baik GT dan MT, serta asumsi stabilnya input cost, kami masih memberikan pandangan positif untuk ROTI. BUY. Kinerja topline dan bottom line di atas estimasi. Perusahaan baru saja mengeluarkan kinerja unaudited FY16, meskipun laporan keuangan secara detail belum dirilis. Topline tumbuh 16%YoY, mengalahkan industri yang hanya berhasil tumbuh 8.5%YoY (Gapmmi, AC Nielsen), meskipun hanya didorong oleh pertumbuhan volume, yang mengindikasikan bahwa permintaan produk tetap kuat di tengah daya beli masyarakat yang lemah. Walaupun terjadi aksi boikot, perusahaan masih mampu mencapai pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 6%QoQ pada 4Q16 (lihat tabel 1). Capaian tersebut mendorong bottomline untuk tumbuh 3%QoQ dan 4%YoY (inline dengan estimasi kami).... optimalisasi penggunaan GT dan MT. Pada tahun ini, kami menilai manajemen lebih agresif dan serius dalam meningkatkan penggunaan GT dan MT, sehingga memperbesar distributional coverage produk ke tangan konsumen. Pada sistem GT, manajemen berencana menambah kehadiran Mbak Sari (yang sudah hadir sejak akhir tahun lalu). Selain itu, manajemen juga fokus untuk menghadirkan Hubs Office (berfungsi seperti Distribution Centre) di Batam dan Kalimantan, yang rencananya beroperasi pada bulan Maret ini. Untuk sistem MT, manajemen juga telah menambah distribusi pada 3 Hypermart yang baru (Bale Kota Tangerang, Pondok Gede, dan Pacific Mall Tegal), serta berencana untuk memasuki Smart Club dan Minang Mart. Rencana kenaikan ASP. Setelah absennya kenaikan ASP pada dua tahun belakangan ini, manajemen berencana untuk menaikkan ASP di kisaran 5% -10%. Kami yakin kenaikan ASP tidak membuat ROTI kehilangan momentum kenaikan volume, karena secara historis, para pesaing cenderung memiliki tendensi untuk menaikkan harga jual setelah kenaikan harga dilakukan oleh ROTI. Overall, kami menargetkan pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 20%YoY untuk FY17F. Kembali merekomendasikan BUY. Asumsi kami juga tidak terlepas dari : stabilnya harga bahan baku dan keadaan ekonomi Indonesia (TP: Rp 2,050/lembar saham). Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp1,565 per share) Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Revenue 2,174 2,522 3,030 3,546 EBITDA 564 557 752 849 Net Profit 271 228 347 409 EPS (Rp) 53 56 69 81 DPS (Rp) 5.5 8.0 13.9 17.2 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.1 BV per Share (Rp) 235 282 337 401 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.2 15.9 11.6 10.3 P/E Ratio (x) 29.3 28.2 22.8 19.3 P/BV Ratio (x) 6.7 5.5 4.6 3.9 www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 5
Figure 1. Indicative FY16 Result (in Rp bn) 4Q15 3Q16 4Q16 QoQ YoY FY15 FY16 YoY FY16F FY16/SSI FY16F Sales 605 644 685 6% 13% 2,174 2,522 16% 2,608 97% COGS (279) (311) (334) 7% 20% (1,019) (1,221) 20% Gross Profit 326 333 351 5% 8% 1,155 1,301 13% 1,596 82% Operating Expenses * (216) (214) (296) 39% 37% (739) (920) 25% Operating Profit 110 119 55-54% -50% 416 381-8% 443 86% Net Income 80 75 77 3% -3% 271 281 4% 241 117% Profitability Gross margin 53.9% 51.7% 51.3% -0.4% -2.6% 53.1% 51.6% -1.5% Operating margin * 18.2% 18.5% 8.0% -10.5% -10.2% 19.1% 15.1% -4.0% Net margin 13.1% 11.6% 11.2% -0.4% -1.9% 12.5% 11.1% -1.3% Source: Company,Bloomberg, SSI Research *). Dibukanya kembali satu pabrik Sari Roti pada akhir 2016 setelah ditutup pada tahun 2015, sehingga biaya operasional (i.e. Depresiasi dan Upah Buruh) naik dan marjin operasional turun. Figure 2. Distribution System Comparison 80% 70% 60% 50% 76% 74% 40% General Trade 30% 24% 26% Modern Trade 20% 10% 0% 2016 2017 Source: Company www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 5
Figure 3. Margin Performances 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F Gross Margin Operating Margin Net Margin Source: Company, SSI Research Figure 4. Two Recent Product Launches (Among the targeted 45 new SKUs) Source: Company Website www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 5
Profit and Loss Statement Cash Flow Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Revenue 2,174 2,522 3,030 3,546 Net Income 271 281 350 424 COGS (1,019) (1,221) (1,453) (1,699) Depreciation & Ammort. 107 119 139 163 Gross profit 1,155 1,301 1,577 1,847 Others 0 0 0 0 Gross margin (%) 53.1 51.6 52.0 52.1 Working capital 96 (93) (8) (1) Operating profit 416 383 531 595 Operating Cash Flow 460 308 480 586 Operating margin (%) 19.2 15.2 17.5 16.8 Net - Capital expenditure (249) (260) (398) (505) EBITDA 564 529 763 864 Investing Cash Flow (278) (288) (418) (526) EBITDA margin (%) 26.0 21.0 25.2 24.4 Net - Borrowings 159 446 100 0 Other Income (Expenses) (72) (101) (126) (136) Other financing 12 (75) (54) (69) Pre-tax profit 378 298 466 565 Financing Cash Flow 171 370 46 (69) Income tax - net 107 82 117 141 Net - Cash flow 353 390 107 (9) Net profit 271 281 350 424 Cash at beginning 163 515 905 1,012 Net profit margin (%) 12.5 11.1 11.5 12.0 Cash at ending 515 905 1,012 1,003 Balance Sheet Key Ratios Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E Cash & ST Investment 515 905 1,012 1,003 ROE 23% 15% 20% 21% Receivables 249 266 319 373 ROA 10% 6% 9% 10% Inventories 43 49 57 67 Revenue Growth (%) 16 16 20 17 Others 6 48 57 67 EBITDA Growth (%) 42-6 44 13 Total Current Assets 813 1,267 1,446 1,511 EPS Growth (%) 44 4 24 21 Net fixed assets 1,822 1,962 2,221 2,563 Interest Coverage (x) 6 4 5 5 Other assets 72 101 121 142 Debt to Equity (%) 84 101 90 75 Total Assets 2,706 3,330 3,788 4,216 Net Gearing (%) 40 37 31 26 Payables 159 181 211 247 ST. debt and curr. maturity 0 440 1,040 0 Major Assumptions Other current liabilities 236 187 219 256 Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 15A 16E 17E 18E LT. debt 994 1,000 500 1,540 Inflation rate (%) 3.0 3.3 4.6 5.0 Other long term liabilities 127 93 109 127 Sales volume growth (%) 16.0 18.9 13.3 14.7 Total Liabilities 1,517 1,900 2,079 2,170 ASP growth (%) 7.0 0.0 2.5 2.0 Total Equity 1,189 1,429 1,709 2,046 Sales return (%) 12.5 12.0 12.0 12.0 www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 5
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148 Rangga Cipta Economist rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396 Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392 Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387 Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339 Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338 Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395 Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325 Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150 Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146 Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173 Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372 Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371 Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 5