Samuel Equity Research Market Activity Friday, 13 Apr 2018 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 6,310.8 : -50.1 (-0.79%) : 4,050 Mn shrs : 5,327 Bn rupiah Leading Movers INKP 12,200 700 6.1 KLBF 1,595 50 3.2 FREN 67 17 34.0 BBNI 8,650 75 0.9 IHSG berpotensi menguat paska kenaikan rating obligasi Indonesia oleh Moody s Bursa US semalam ditutup menguat signifikan setelah Presiden Donald Trump mengklarifikasi posisi US terhadap kemungkinan serangan misil ke Suriah serta dirilisnya laporan keuangan sektor perbankan yang melebihi ekspektasi. Laba bersih sektor perbankan US diproyeksi tumbuh 24% yoy sementara secara sektor keseluruhan laba bersih diperkirakan naik 17% yoy di 1Q18. Dari data ekonomi, data jobless claims turun 9.000 ke 233.000 sementara harga barang impor tidak berubah di bulan Maret. Lagging Movers TLKM 3,750-120 -3.1 HMSP 4,060-90 -2.2 ASII 7,725-225 -2.8 BBRI 3,590-60 -1.6 Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) BBNI 22 TLKM 116 KLBF 16 BBCA 88 INCO 14 BBRI 79 BRPT 13 ASII 52 ELSA 8 BMRI 41 Money Market USD/IDR 13,770 11.0-0.1 JIBOR O/N 4.0 0.0 - Infl (MoM) 0.2 - - Dual Listing Securities TLKM 27.0-0.9-3.1 ISAT 51.5 0.9 1.8 EIDO 27.7-0.3-1.0 Harga minyak dunia melemah tipis ke US$ 71,8/b setelah sebelumnya meningkat tajam akibat krisis geopolitik terkait Suriah. Penurunan disebabkan oleh naiknya persediaan minyak mentah US sebesar 3,3 juta barel ke 428,6 juta barel sementara produksi minyak menyentuh titik tertinggi di 10,53 juta b/d. Dari pasar dalam negeri, kami perkirakan IHSG akan menguat setelah Moody s menaikkan rating obligasi Indonesia dari Baa3 ke Baa2 dengan perubahan outlook dari positif ke stabil. Nilai tukar rupiah menguat ke Rp13.747, sementara EIDO flat. Highlights ANTM: Menargetkan Produksi Feronikal Mencapai 26.000 Ton KLBF: Mengembangkan bisnis digital World Indices DJIA 24,483 294 1.2 S&P 500 2,664 22 0.8 Euro Stoxx 3,444 24 0.7 MSCI World 2,091 8 0.4 Nikkei 21,821 161 0.7 Hang Seng 30,831-66 -0.2 Commodities Brent Oil 72-0.2-0.2 CPO Malay 2,426-6.0-0.2 Coal (ICE) 92 0.2 0.2 Nickel 13,685-148.5-1.1 Tin 20,980-72.0-0.3 www.samuel.co.id Page 1 of 6
ANTM: Menargetkan Produksi Feronikal Mencapai 26.000 Ton PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) menargetkan produksi feronikel bisa mencapai 26.000 ton (+19% yoy) nikel (TNi). Hingg 1Q18 capaian produksi ANTM telah mempresentasika 23% dari total keseluruhan produksi. Sementara ANTM juga berencana menambah porsi kepemilikan saham di PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina (ICA). Saat ini, ANTM memiliki 80% saham. Sisanya dikuasai Showa Denko KK, perusahaan Jepang. Jika ICA sudah 100% milik ANTM, perseroan bebas untuk mencoba penetrasi market. (Kontan). ANTM: HOLD; 18E PE: 86.5x, PBV: 1.3x. KLBF: Mengembangkan bisnis digital Lewat anak usahanya, PT Karsa Lintas Buana, KLBF ingin memanfaatkan teknologi digital untuk memuluskan bisnis di layanan dan produk farmasi serta kesehatan. Kontribusi perusahaan ini saat ini hanya 1% dari total pendapatan KLBF. Di tahun ini, kontribusi itu ditargetkan naik menjadi 2-5%. Pada 2020, kontribusinya diharapkan menjadi 10%. (Kontan). KLBF: Buy; 18E PE: 27.0x, PBV: 5.0x www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 6
Stock Rec. JCI Wgt price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE Banks (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E BMRI BUY 5.3 8025 (0.3) 0.3 8922 9000 12.1 18.2 15.1 2.2 2.1 12.4% 13.6% BBCA HOLD 8.0 23150 (0.8) 5.7 23860 23700 2.4 24.8 22.0 4.4 3.7 17.6% 17.0% BBRI BUY 6.2 3590 (1.6) (1.4) 4053 4000 11.4 16.0 13.4 2.7 2.4 16.6% 17.7% BBNI HOLD 2.3 8650 0.9 (12.6) 10097 9000 4.0 12.2 10.5 1.7 1.5 13.6% 14.0% BBTN HOLD 0.5 3650 (0.3) 2.2 3912 3500-4.1 13.1 11.0 1.8 1.6 13.7% 14.3% BNLI BUY 0.2 595 0.0 (4.8) 815 890 49.6 16.1 16.5 0.8 0.7 4.8% 4.4% Average 16.7 14.8 2.2 2.0 13.1% 13.5% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY 1.4 8350 (0.6) (6.2) 9205 10200 22.2 25.6 23.2 4.9 4.4 19.3% 19.1% INDF BUY 0.9 7125 (1.4) (6.6) 9117 9900 38.9 15.0 13.5 2.0 1.8 13.3% 13.6% KLBF BUY 1.1 1595 3.2 (5.6) 1676 1900 19.1 30.7 27.0 5.6 5.0 18.4% 18.5% ROTI BUY 0.1 1245 0.4 (2.4) 1363 1620 30.1 33.3 18.8 4.1 3.4 12.2% 18.3% UNVR HOLD 5.6 51700 (0.4) (7.5) 50877 54500 5.4 55.7 50.8 73.1 64.9 131.3% 127.7% Average 32.1 26.7 17.9 15.9 38.9% 39.4% Cigarette HMSP SELL 6.7 4060 (2.2) (14.2) 4567 3900-3.9 37.2 36.6 12.5 11.2 33.4% 30.7% GGRM BUY 2.1 76650 (1.1) (8.5) 87531 83700 9.2 21.0 19.7 3.3 2.9 15.6% 14.8% Average 29.1 28.2 7.9 7.1 24.5% 22.8% Healthcare MIKA UR 0.4 2070 (1.0) 14.4 2171 2950 42.5 38.7 35.0 7.5 6.8 19.4% 19.4% SILO BUY 0.2 8425 0.6 (12.0) 10525 10700 27.0 117.0 100.3 2.2 1.8 1.9% 1.8% Average 77.8 67.6 4.8 4.3 10.6% 10.6% Poultry CPIN BUY 0.9 3790 0.8 26.3 3615 3850 1.6 21.6 16.4 3.8 3.3 17.6% 20.0% JPFA BUY * 0.3 1600 (0.6) 23.1 1737 1600 0.0 13.8 13.0 1.8 1.6 13.0% 12.4% MAIN BUY 0.0 760 2.0 2.7 750 1200 57.9 4.5 3.6 0.7 0.6 14.6% 16.2% Average 13.3 11.0 2.1 1.8 15.1% 16.2% Retail MAPI HOLD 0.2 8100 (1.2) 30.6 9031 8000-1.2 54.4 26.6 3.9 3.4 7.1% 12.7% RALS BUY 0.1 1410 (0.7) 17.5 1369 1500 6.4 23.7 19.3 2.6 2.4 11.1% 12.7% ACES HOLD 0.3 1340 (3.6) 16.0 1469 1400 4.5 30.6 25.8 6.8 5.8 22.4% 22.4% LPPF BUY 0.4 10850 (1.1) 8.5 12414 11500 6.0 14.5 14.1 9.3 7.0 64.5% 49.8% Average 30.8 21.4 5.7 4.6 26.3% 24.4% Media MNCN BUY 0.3 1455 (1.0) 13.2 1931 2000 37.5 10.7 9.6 2.1 1.9 19.3% 19.3% SCMA BUY 0.6 2710 (3.9) 9.3 2874 3000 10.7 25.1 22.0 9.6 8.0 38.4% 36.3% Average 17.9 15.8 5.9 4.9 28.9% 27.8% Telco EXCL BUY 0.4 2680 (2.5) (9.5) 3972 3200 19.4 83.8 35.7 1.3 1.3 1.6% 3.6% ISAT BUY 0.4 4780 (0.2) (0.4) 6969 8200 71.5 14.4 9.7 1.8 1.6 12.4% 16.3% TLKM BUY 5.4 3750 (3.1) (15.5) 4524 5000 33.3 16.7 14.1 4.0 3.6 24.0% 25.9% TOWR BUY 0.5 3460 0.6 (13.5) 4714 4500 30.1 13.2 11.9 2.8 2.4 20.9% 20.2% Average 32.0 17.9 2.5 2.2 14.7% 16.5% Auto and HE ASII BUY 4.4 7725 (2.8) (6.9) 8954 9400 21.7 16.6 15.5 2.5 2.3 15.0% 14.7% UNTR BUY 1.9 35200 (1.1) (0.6) 40098 41500 17.9 17.7 15.7 2.9 2.5 16.5% 16.2% Average 17.2 15.6 2.7 2.4 15.8% 15.4% Aviation GIAA HOLD 0.1 296 (0.7) (1.3) 340 295-0.3 222.3 216.8 0.6 0.6 0.3% 0.3% www.samuel.co.id Page 3 of 6
Property BSDE BUY 0.5 1775 0.0 4.4 2171 2350 32.4 6.9 6.5 1.2 0.9 16.9% 14.6% PWON BUY 0.4 625 (0.8) (8.8) 725 767 22.7 15.2 12.9 2.9 2.5 19.2% 19.1% ASRI BUY 0.1 390 0.5 9.6 426 448 14.9 14.6 13.7 1.0 0.9 6.7% 6.7% SMRA HOLD 0.2 995 1.5 5.3 1189 1110 11.6 44.4 42.3 1.2 1.5 2.8% 3.4% SSIA HOLD 0.0 555 (0.9) 7.8 744 626 12.8 36.0 33.4 0.9 0.9 2.4% 2.6% CTRA BUY 0.3 1240 0.4 4.6 1456 1580 27.4 25.8 24.8 1.5 1.2 5.8% 5.0% DMAS BUY 0.1 168 (0.6) (1.8) 250 228 35.7 9.5 7.7 0.9 0.8 9.7% 10.8% KIJA BUY 0.1 268 0.0 (6.3) #N/A N/A 450 67.9 11.6 10.5 0.9 0.8 7.8% 7.9% Average 20.5 19.0 1.3 1.2 8.9% 8.8% Construction PTPP BUY 0.2 2800 (1.4) 6.1 3910 4150 48.2 12.4 10.5 1.5 1.3 11.8% 12.6% ADHI BUY 0.1 2120 (0.5) 12.5 2716 3250 53.3 14.6 11.8 1.3 1.1 8.8% 9.1% WSKT BUY 0.5 2500 0.0 13.1 3312 3250 30.0 8.7 9.2 1.5 1.3 17.1% 14.3% WIKA BUY 0.2 1700 (1.4) 9.7 2398 3000 76.5 13.7 12.0 1.1 1.0 8.0% 8.3% Average 12.4 10.9 1.3 1.2 11.4% 11.1% Cement INTP SELL 1.0 18775 (5.4) (14.5) 17871 13300-29.2 33.5 25.2 2.6 2.4 7.7% 9.6% SMGR BUY 0.9 10200 (0.5) 3.0 10609 12000 17.6 21.1 17.1 2.0 1.8 9.4% 10.7% SMCB SELL 0.1 800 0.0 (4.2) 822 700-12.5-10.5-11.0 0.8 0.8-7.8% -7.7% Average 14.7 10.4 1.8 1.7 3.1% 4.2% Precast WSBP BUY 0.2 452 (0.4) 10.8 626 580 28.3 11.9 10.6 1.6 1.3 13.7% 12.4% WTON BUY 0.1 515 0.0 3.0 712 750 45.6 13.2 10.7 1.6 1.1 12.3% 10.2% Average 12.5 10.7 1.6 1.2 13.0% 11.3% Oil and Gas PGAS BUY 0.8 2350 0.0 34.3 2719 3000 27.7 21.4 16.0 1.3 1.2 5.9% 7.5% AKRA BUY 0.3 5650-3.00-11.0 7171 7000 23.9 13.9 16.4 2.8 2.5 20.0% 15.2% TPIA SELL 1.6 6175-0.8 2.9 5569 5480-11.3 27.4 25.2 4.7 4.2 17.1% 16.8% BRPT HOLD 0.5 2460 0.0 8.8 2562 2400-2.4 18.6 16.8 1.5 1.3 8.0% 7.6% MEDC BUY 0.3 1230 1.7 38.2 1903 2000 62.6 9.2 8.5 1.4 1.2 14.7% 13.8% Average 18.1 16.6 2.3 2.1 13.1% 12.2% Utilities JSMR BUY 0.5 4660 (1.7) (27.2) 6456 7500 60.9 16.5 14.0 2.2 2.0 13.6% 14.3% Metal ANTM BUY 0.3 865 0.0 38.4 1048 1050 21.4 216.3 86.5 1.1 1.3 0.5% 1.5% INCO BUY 0.4 3100 (0.6) 7.3 3893 3800 22.6-1476.2 37.8 1.3 1.2-0.1% 3.3% TINS BUY 0.1 1085 (4.0) 40.0 1319 1200 10.6 17.0 14.5 1.4 1.4 8.4% 9.4% Average -414.3 46.2 1.3 1.3 2.9% 4.7% Coal DOID BUY 0.1 1025.0-1.4 43.4 1597.1 1500 46.3 12.8 7.0 3.7 2.4 28.6% 34.4% ITMG BUY 0.4 27175 (0.8) 31.3 34420 38000 39.8 9.8 9.9 2.2 2.1 22.1% 20.8% ADRO BUY 1.0 2110 (1.4) 13.4 2762 3050 44.5 10.7 7.7 1.2 1.2 11.5% 15.0% PTBA BUY 0.6 3420 0.0 39.0 3576 4000 17.0 16.9 9.2 3.1 2.6 18.4% 28.1% Average 12.6 8.4 2.5 2.1 20.1% 24.6% Plantation AALI BUY 0.4 13575 (0.7) 3.2 16169 17800 31.1 10.6 9.8 1.5 1.4 14.1% 13.8% LSIP BUY 0.1 1375 0.0 (3.2) 1705 1950 41.8 12.4 11.5 1.1 1.1 9.2% 9.3% SIMP HOLD 0.1 590 (1.7) 27.2 552 550-6.8 13.7 12.0 0.6 0.6 4.6% 5.0% Average 12.2 11.1 1.1 1.0 9.3% 9.4% Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, BRPT, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD. Note: *: Under Review www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 6
Regional Indices 1D Change Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World 8.32 2,091 0.40 0.04 1.86 (2.50) (4.32) (0.60) 14.06 2,250 1,831 U.S. (S&P) 21.80 2,664 0.83 1.95 0.04 (3.66) (4.39) (0.36) 14.39 2,873 2,329 U.S. (DOW) 293.60 24,483 1.21 2.10 (0.09) (2.10) (5.12) (0.96) 19.70 26,617 20,380 Europe 24.26 3,444 0.71 0.85 0.41 1.37 (4.67) (1.71) (0.12) 3,709 3,262 Emerging Market 1.36 1,177 0.12 0.13 1.28 (3.84) (2.59) 1.59 22.23 1,279 951 FTSE 100 1.20 7,258 0.02 0.88 0.82 1.67 (6.69) (5.59) n/a 7,793 6,867 CAC 40 31.28 5,309 0.59 0.87 0.62 1.27 (3.77) (0.06) 4.70 5,567 4,980 Dax 121.04 12,415 0.98 1.25 0.89 1.59 (6.27) (3.89) 2.53 13,597 11,727 Indonesia (50.13) 6,311 (0.79) 1.04 2.06 (1.59) (0.93) (0.71) 12.36 6,693 5,577 Japan 181.35 21,842 0.84 0.22 1.27 (0.58) (7.66) (4.06) 18.53 24,129 18,225 Australia 14.47 5,830 0.25 (0.46) 0.71 (2.42) (3.95) (3.88) (1.02) 6,150 5,630 Korea 3.81 2,447 0.16 (0.17) 0.70 (1.92) (2.00) (0.85) 13.87 2,607 2,126 Singapore (11.15) 3,469 (0.32) 0.54 1.85 (2.40) (1.48) 1.93 9.45 3,612 3,114 Malaysia 3.73 1,874 0.20 1.29 2.04 0.51 2.80 4.27 7.79 1,881 1,708 Hong Kong (66.43) 30,831 (0.21) 1.99 4.45 (2.44) (1.85) 3.05 27.08 33,484 23,724 China (27.92) 3,180 (0.87) 1.33 1.39 (3.93) (7.26) (3.84) (2.92) 3,587 3,017 Taiwan (18.73) 10,955 (0.17) 0.57 0.62 (1.26) 0.66 2.94 11.37 11,270 9,622 Thailand 3.95 1,767 0.22 0.91 2.45 (2.36) (2.38) 0.77 11.18 1,853 1,532 Philipines 99.14 8,043 1.25 1.23 0.57 (4.47) (8.75) (6.02) 5.42 9,078 7,494 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) 0.04 4.01 0.60 1.47 1.30 2.84 (8.45) 4.96 3.89 Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a 126.00 n/a (1.61) (3.22) (3.22) 3.45 131.98 123.09 Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.20 n/a 17.65 (71.83) (71.83) 1100.00 0.71 (0.07) US Fed Rate (%) 0.00 1.75 0.00 16.67 16.67 16.67 75.00 1.75 1.00 Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % 0.00 6.59 (0.63) (2.63) 6.08 4.34 (6.40) 7.27 6.09 Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia 11.00 13770 (0.08) (0.06) (0.02) 0.01 (1.47) (1.47) (3.59) 13,803 13,145 Japan 0.00 107.33 0.00 (0.12) (0.37) (0.70) 4.99 4.99 1.64 114.73 104.56 UK 0.00 1.42 0.08 0.44 1.04 1.98 5.37 5.37 13.88 1.43 1.25 Euro 0.00 1.23 0.02 (0.22) 0.39 (0.49) 2.70 2.70 16.17 1.26 1.06 China 0.02 6.29 (0.36) 0.25 0.19 0.60 3.42 3.42 9.54 6.91 6.24 Commodities Indicators 1D Change Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil (0.23) 66.84 (0.34) 2.03 7.70 10.10 3.95 10.63 25.69 67.45 42.05 CPO (6.00) 2,426.00 (0.25) (1.34) (1.66) 1.85 (4.30) (3.08) (4.45) 2,876.00 2,350.00 Rubber 0.50 622.50 0.08 (0.16) 0.73 (7.02) (15.94) (15.02) (36.51) 982.00 610.50 Coal 0.15 92.30 0.16 (1.02) (0.75) (1.86) (11.21) (9.20) 12.49 109.65 71.25 Iron Ore 1.03 62.16 1.68 2.35 0.00 (8.47) (17.13) (12.18) (16.24) 80.91 54.24 Tin (72.00) 20,980.00 (0.34) (1.13) (0.49) (2.10) 3.34 4.40 8.15 22,104.00 18,866.50 Nickel (150.00) 13,715.00 (1.08) 2.08 2.93 0.29 7.78 7.48 40.88 14,420.00 8,680.00 Copper (129.00) 6,821.00 (1.86) (0.13) 0.07 (1.33) (4.06) (5.88) 21.20 7,312.50 5,462.50 Gold (1.20) 1,337.50 (0.09) (0.40) 0.33 0.78 0.19 2.39 3.94 1,365.80 1,204.00 Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg www.samuel.co.id Page 5 of 6
Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148 Ahmad Mikail Economist ahmad.mikail@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396 Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Arandi Ariantara Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Cement, Telecommunication, Toll Road, Oil and Gas akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144 arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392 Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387 Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339 Nadya Swastika Research Associate nadya.swastika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338 Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395 Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8325 Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150 Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146 Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173 Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372 Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371 Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8389 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia www.samuel.co.id Page 6 of 6