z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK AS & Global Markets: Saham pengembang perumahan telah mengangkat bursa saham AS dan juga Eropa pada hari Selasa, sementara minyak mendapat dukungan positif dari sinyal Iran mengenai pembekuan produksinya. Di Wall Street, saham teknologi angkat Nasdaq ke rekor intraday high dan meningkatnya pasar perumahan memperkuat indikasi membaiknya ekonomi. Saham perumahan melonjak 2% setelah Departemen Perdagangan melaporkan penjualan rumah baru AS melonjak diluar dugaan di bulan Juli mendekati level tertinggi 9 tahun. Meskipun rencana Iran berhasil mengangkat harga minyak, namun kenaikannya dibatasi oleh rilis data stok minyak AS yang naik diluar dugaan. Data new home sales AS membantu mengurangi kerugian dolar hingga akhirnya bergerak datar terhadap sejulamh rival utamanya. Weekahead: Pekan ini investor mengharapkan adanya penegasan dari Kepala Fed Janet Yellen mengenai kesiapannya dalam menaikkan suku bunga yang akan dijabarkan dalam sidang tahunan bank-bank sentral dunia pada 25 Agustus di Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Data Ifo Jerman (Kamis) akan dicermati yang diharapkan akan menunjukkan seberapa besar dampak dari Brexit terhadap kesehatan ekonomi Eropa, terkait rencana pelonggaran moneter ECB kedepannya. Dampak dari Brexit juga akan dicermati investor melalui rilis data PDB-Q2 Inggris (Jumat) yang diprediksi tumbuh 0,6%. Terakhir, data inflasi Jepang (Jumat) akan dinantikan untuk melihat perkembangan upaya pencapaian target inflasi BOJ sebesar 2%, dengan data CPI Juli diprediksi catat penurunan 0,4% y/y. Rabu 24 Agustus 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 05:45 NZ Trade Balance YY* Jul N/A B -3.31 08:30 AU Construction Work Done Q2-1.9 % -2.6 13:00 DE GDP Detailed QQ Q2 0.4 % 0.4 15.30 GB BBA Mortgage Approvals Jul 38.5 K 40.103 18:30 US Build Permits R Numb MM* Jul N/A M 1.152 20:00 US Monthly Home Price MM* Jun N/A % 0.2 21:00 US Existing Home Sales Jul 5.51 M 5.57 21:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -0.825 M -2.508 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 06/06/2016-29/08/2016 (GMT) 1.1432 1.1365 Price 1,145 1,14 1,135 1,13 1,125 Value 50 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 24/08/2016; 1,1303; 1,1306; 1,1299; 1,1302 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 24/08/2016; 1,1216 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 24/08/2016; 1,1155 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 24/08/2016; 65,797 1.0909 1.0959 1.1043 @her1en 1,12 1,115 1,11 1,105 1,1 1,095 1,09 1,085 1,08 Coba dekati puncak trend channel harian Penguatan terlihat dalam hourly RSI flat (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 24/08/2016; 0,0174 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Aug 23 1.1320 1.1354 1.1302 52 1.1310 10 1.1320 Aug 22 1.1310 1.1330 1.1272 58 1.1320 5 1.1325 Aug 19 1.1345 1.1362 1.1304 58 1.1325 30 1.1355 Aug 18 1.1300 1.1365 1.1284 81 1.1355 65 1.1290 Aug 17 1.1275 1.1315 1.1242 73 1.1290 10 1.1280 1.1354 1.1272 1.1365 1.1047 1.1197 1.0953 1.1614 1.0711 (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (18/Aug) (05/Aug) (29/Jul) (25/Jul) (03/May) (05/Jan) 1.1614 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1528 High 04/May/2016 1.1432 High 24/Jun/2016 (Peak) 1.1376 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1281 Low Aug 18 1.1196 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.1131 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.1100 Low 10/Aug/2016 BUY 1.1295 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1.1230 1.1365 1.1395
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Koreksi masih tertahan di area 100 Daily trend masih cenderung bearish Strong support disekitar 99.08 Trendline resistance di sekitar 101.50 (Research @ErwinRiset) Aug 23 100.30 100.39 99.95 44 100.20 10 100.30 Aug 22 100.45 100.93 100.23 70 100.30 15 100.15 Aug 19 100.15 100.44 99.88 56 100.15 20 99.95 Aug 18 99.90 100.48 99.66 82 99.95 30 100.25 Aug 17 100.25 101.15 100.06 109 100.25 5 100.30 100.93 99.95 102.81 99.56 107.47 100.05 121.68 99.11 (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (02/Aug) (16/Aug) (21/Jul) (08/Jul) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) 102.65 High 08/Aug/2016 102.27 High 12/Aug/2016 101.45 High 15/Aug/2016 100.93 High 22/Aug/2016 99.53 Low 16/Aug/2016 99.08 Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 98.89 Low 11/Nov/2013 97.96 Low 08/Nov/2013 BUY ---- SELL 100.40 STOP LOSS 101.10 99.70 99.10
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Rebound bergerak mendekati target uptick di 1.3371 Area support di 1.3055 masih cukup efektif (Research @ErwinRiset) Aug 23 1.3135 1.3210 1.3128 82 1.3195 60 1.3135 Aug 22 1.3065 1.3156 1.3032 124 1.3135 50 1.3085 Aug 19 1.3160 1.3184 1.3025 159 1.3085 80 1.3165 Aug 18 1.3045 1.3171 1.3035 136 1.3165 125 1.3040 Aug 17 1.3030 1.3085 1.2982 103 1.3040 UNCH 1.3040 1.3210 1.3032 1.3371 1.2866 1.3480 1.2801 1.5018 1.2801 (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (03/Aug) (15/Aug) (15/Jul) (06/Jul) (24/Jun) (06/Jul) 1.3533 High 29/Jun/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3480 High 15/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3371 High 03/Aug/2016 1.3344 High 04/Aug/2016 1.3126 Reaction low (1-H chart) 1.3078 Reaction low (1-H chart) 1.3020 Low 19/Aug/2016 1.2938 Reaction low (1-H chart) BUY 1.3160 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.3100 1.3250 1.3300
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Daily trend masih bearish Area support di 0.9530 masih efektif Trendline resistance di sekitar 0.9700 (Research @ErwinRiset) Aug 23 0.9625 0.9633 0.9593 40 0.9630 10 0.9620 Aug 22 0.9610 0.9648 0.9595 53 0.9620 30 0.9590 Aug 19 0.9550 0.9611 0.9540 71 0.9590 45 0.9545 Aug 18 0.9620 0.9632 0.9538 94 0.9545 75 0.9620 Aug 17 0.9615 0.9661 0.9599 62 0.9620 5 0.9625 0.9648 0.9593 0.9845 0.9538 0.9951 0.9638 1.0257 0.9444 (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (09/Aug) (18/Aug) (27/Jul) (29/Jul) (29/Jan) (03/May) 0.9873 High 28/Jul/2016 0.9845 High 09/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) 0.9766 High 11/Aug/2016 0.9662 Reaction high (1-H chart) 0.9584 Reaction low (1-H chart) 0.9517 Low 23/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 0.9440 Low 03/May/2016 (Bottom) 0.9379 Low 26/Aug/2015 BUY ---- SELL 0.9650 STOP LOSS 0.9700 0.9580 0.9530
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 24/08/2016; 0,7620 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 24/08/2016; 0,7581 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 24/08/2016; 0,7611; 0,7617; 0,7607; 0,7610 0.7756 08/06/2016-29/08/2016 (GMT) Price 0,77 0,765 0,76 0.7404 0.7495 0.7594 @her1en 0,755 0,75 0,745 0,74 0,735 0,73 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian Rangkaian naik mulai terlihat dalam hourly RSI menguat (Research @her1en) 0.7302 0,725 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 24/08/2016; 43,456 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 24/08/2016; -0,0017 Value 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Aug 23 0.7630 0.7655 0.7614 41 0.7620 5 0.7625 Aug 22 0.7620 0.7639 0.7584 55 0.7625 FLAT 0.7625 Aug 19 0.7675 0.7691 0.7599 92 0.7625 60 0.7685 Aug 18 0.7660 0.7723 0.7648 75 0.7685 35 0.7650 Aug 17 0.7700 0.7707 0.7611 96 0.7650 45 0.7695 0.7655 0.7584 0.7756 0.7500 0.7673 0.7409 0.7828 0.6828 (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (10/Aug) (02/Aug) (15/Jul) (06/Jul) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) 0.7835 High 21/Apr/2016 (Peak) 0.7765 High 26/Apr/2016 (Reaction high) 0.7723 High Aug 18 0.7691 High Aug 19 0.7566 Low 03/Aug/2016 0.7495 Low 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) 0.7417 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.7369 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 0.7600 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7535 0.7670 0.7700
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 23/06/2016-26/08/2016 (GMT) 0.7323 0.7341 0.7344 Price 0,73 0,725 0,72 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 24/08/2016; 0,7286; 0,7292; 0,7283; 0,7291 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 24/08/2016; 0,7216 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 24/08/2016; 0,7174 0.6949 0.7086 @her1en RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 24/08/2016; 66,909 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 24/08/2016; 0,0120 Value 23 24 27 28 29 30 01 04 05 06 07 08 11 12 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 01 02 03 04 05 08 09 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 0,695 0,69 Penguatan didukung dalam pergerakan hourly Telah break area trend channel harian (Research @her1en) Aug 23 0.7285 0.7344 0.7270 74 0.7290 15 0.7275 Aug 22 0.7260 0.7293 0.7211 82 0.7275 FLAT 0.7275 Aug 19 0.7280 0.7296 0.7243 53 0.7275 10 0.7285 Aug 18 0.7260 0.7310 0.7253 57 0.7285 40 0.7245 Aug 17 0.7280 0.7322 0.7205 117 0.7245 30 0.7275 0.7344 0.7211 0.7344 0.7088 0.7323 0.6953 0.7344 0.6348 (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (08/Aug) (12/Jul) (21/Jul) (23/Aug) (20/Jan) 0.7502 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7443 High 19/May/2015 0.7394 High 22/May/2015 (Reaction high) 0.7344 High 23/Aug/2016 0.7257 Low Aug 23 0.7208 Low Aug 22 0.7164 Low 15/Aug/2016 0.7086 Low 08/Aug/2016 (Bottom) BUY 0.7265 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7200 0.7335 0.7365
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Area trendline support di sekitar 112.80 Short-term support di sekitar 112.30 Target uptick di 114.80 (Research @ErwinRiset) Aug 23 113.50 113.72 113.23 49 113.35 20 113.55 Aug 22 113.60 114.11 113.42 69 113.55 10 113.45 Aug 19 113.60 113.86 113.22 64 113.45 5 113.50 Aug 18 112.85 113.69 112.68 101 113.50 30 113.20 Aug 17 113.10 113.92 112.82 110 113.20 10 113.10 114.11 113.23 114.80 112.36 118.45 110.99 132.25 109.60 (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (02/Aug) (05/Aug) (21/Jul) (11/Jul) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) 116.78 High 29/Jul/2016 115.31 Reaction high (1-H chart) 114.80 High 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) 114.11 High 22/Aug/2016 112.31 Low 05/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) 110.78 Low 06/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) 109.46 Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 109.02 Low 14/Dec/2012 BUY 113.15 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 112.25 114.35 114.75
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Formasi consecutive higher lows gagal berlanjut Daily trend cenderung bearish Resistance penting di sekitar 1.30 (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.2868 1.2912 1.2964 1.2854 1.3200 1.2759 1.3251 1.2827 1.4689 1.2458 (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (05/Aug) (18/Aug) (27/Jul) (04/Jul) (20/Jan) (03/May) 1.3189 High 08/Aug/2016 1.3123 High 10/Aug/2016 1.3079 High 11/Aug/2016 1.2995 High 12/Aug/2016 1.2845 Reaction low (1-H chart) 1.2715 Low 24/Jun/2016 1.2674 Low 23/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2651 Low 08/Jun/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 1.2950 STOP LOSS 1.3020 1.2850 1.2750
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 1374.91 1367.33 16/06/2016-26/08/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs 1310.56 1305.23 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 23/08/2016; 1.338,5900; 1.344,7000; 1.334,9000; 1.337,3500 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 23/08/2016; 1.340,7262 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 23/08/2016; 1.337,1601 @her1en RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 23/08/2016; 43,610 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 23/08/2016; -20,1500 Value 16 17 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 29 30 01 04 05 06 07 08 11 12 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 01 02 03 04 05 08 09 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 1.360 1.350 1.340 1.330 1.320 1.310 1.300 1.290 1.280 1.270 1.260 1.250 1.240 Koreksi dalam harian Peningkatan terjadi dalam hourly-tidak dominan (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Aug 23 1337.50 1344.70 1335.64 9.06 1338.50 FLAT 1338.50 1338.50 1342.00 Aug 22 1337.00 1340.90 1332.04 8.86 1338.50 4.00 1342.50 1334.30 1335.90 Aug 19 1350.50 1352.88 1337.98 14.90 1342.50 9.50 1352.00 1346.85 1346.40 Aug 18 1352.00 1356.20 1346.30 9.90 1352.00 3.50 1348.50 1347.10 1350.05 Aug 17 1347.50 1351.59 1337.55 14.04 1348.50 2.50 1346.00 1342.75 1343.35 1344.70 1332.04 1367.33 1330.18 1374.91 1311.04 1374.91 1062.28 (23/Aug) (22/Aug) (02/Aug) (08/Aug) (06/Jul) (21/Jul) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) 1357.17 High 10/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) 1352.88 High Aug 19 1347.92 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1344.70 High Aug 23 1334.90 Low Aug 23 1329.55 Low 08/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) 1315.30 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1312.03 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 1334.00 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1325.00 1344.00 1349.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 08/06/2016-26/08/2016 (GMT) Cndl; XAG=; Bid 23/08/2016; 18,8900; 19,1200; 18,7800; 18,7800 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 23/08/2016; 19,6020 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 23/08/2016; 19,6315 16.90 17.11 21.10 20.78 18.17 19.20 RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 23/08/2016; 21,481 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 23/08/2016; -1,5800 Value 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 18.77 @her1en Price Ozs 20,5 20 19,5 19 18,5 18 17,5 17 16,5 16 Pergerakan terjadi koreksi harian Hourly yang awalnya naik mulai tertekan (Research @her1en) Aug 23 18.86 19.09 18.78 0.31 18.78 0.10 18.88 Aug 22 19.03 19.07 18.79 0.27 18.88 0.41 19.29 Aug 19 19.77 19.77 19.21 0.56 19.29 0.43 19.72 Aug 18 19.66 19.90 19.59 0.31 19.72 0.06 19.66 Aug 17 19.78 19.86 19.35 0.51 19.66 0.10 19.76 19.09 18.78 20.75 18.78 21.10 18.67 21.10 13.73 (23/Aug) (23/Aug) (02/Aug) (23/Aug) (04/Jul) (01/Jul) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) 19.93 High Aug 18 19.78 High Aug 19 19.45 Reaction high on 1-H chart 19.12 High Aug 23 18.81 Low Aug 23 18.67 Low 01/Jul/2016 18.17 Reaction low on 1-H chart 17.73 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 18.80 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 18.55 19.10 19.30
Page 12 of 12 CLV6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 Sept. 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLV6 14/06/2016-26/08/2016 (NYC) 51.53 49.53 49.36 Price Bbl 50 49 48 47 Cndl; CLV6; Trade Price 23/08/2016; 47,39; 48,32; 46,59; 47,57 WMA; CLV6; Trade Price(Last); 55 23/08/2016; 45,77 EMA; CLV6; Trade Price(Last); 20 23/08/2016; 45,90 39.96 45.06 @her1en RSI; CLV6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 23/08/2016; 61,811 Value Bbl Mom; CLV6; Trade Price(Last); 14 23/08/2016; 5,99 Value 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 24 27 28 29 30 01 05 06 07 08 11 12 13 14 15 18 19 20 21 22 25 26 27 28 29 01 02 03 04 05 08 09 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 19 22 23 24 25 26 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 Break area trend channel dalam harian Telah tembus level terendah mingguannya (Research @her1en) Aug 23 (CLV6) 47.38 48.30 46.59 1.71 47.55 0.18 47.37 Aug 22 (CLV6) 49.00 49.00 47.32 1.68 47.37 1.69 49.06 Aug 19 (CLV6) 48.93 49.34 48.53 0.81 49.06 0.11 48.95 Aug 18 (CLV6) 47.56 49.03 47.28 1.75 48.95 1.34 47.61 Aug 18 (CLU6) 46.88 48.36 46.62 1.74 48.31 1.39 46.92 49.00 46.59 49.34 39.23 49.33 40.56 51.65 26.04 (22/Aug) (23/Aug) (19/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Jul) (29/Jul) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) 51.08 Reaction high on 1-H chart 50.03 High 05/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) 49.53 High 07/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) 48.46 Reaction high on 1-H chart 47.28 Low Aug 18 45.84 Low Aug 17 45.34 Low Aug 16 44.03 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 47.85 STOP LOSS 49.05 46.35 45.85