Fixed Income Daily Notes

Transkripsi

1 Fixed Income Daily Notes Indonesia Government Bonds Yield Maturities (Year) 29-May (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) Source: Bloomberg Global Market Update Yield (%) Maturities (Year) 29-May (-1 day) (-1 week) (-1 month) At Wednesday, May, US Treasury yield climbed up to 2.86% after lower tension of Italian bond market. The day before, there were major shifting in Italy bond market because of politic uncertainty. Majority of global benchmark bond yield also increased, UK gilt yield rose to 1.25% and German Bund yield climbed up to 0.37%. Yield US Treasury pada hari Rabu, Mei 2018 ditutup naik ke level 2,86% setelah mulai kembali tenangnya investor di pasar obligasi Italia. Sebelumnya, terjadi perpindahan aset besar-besaran ke US-10 year treasury akibat kecemasan kondisi politik Italia. Dari pasar obligasi global, sebagian besar yield obligasi benchmark dunia ditutup naik, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup naik ke level 1,25% dan 0,37%. Domestic Market Update BI decided to hike -Days Repo Rate (7DRR) 25 bps to 4.75% at the incidental governor council meeting (RDG) yestreday. As economist expected, this hike was caused by BI intention to stabilize Indonesia macroeconomic condition. New elected BI governor, Perry Warijyo, stated that in the future, BI policy would tended to stricter than before. As an effect of this hike, he said that predicted inflation would only 3.6% this year, while economic growth would only 5.2%. He also said that bank should not be rushed to increase interest rate if their liquidity is enough. Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) BI Insidentil, yang dilaksanakan pada Rabu, Mei 2018, memutuskan bahwa BI menaikkan tingkat suku bunga acuan, atau biasa disebut 7-Days Repo Rate (7DRR) sebesar 25 bps menjadi 4,75%. Seperti diduga oleh banyak ekonom, kenaikan ini bertujuan untuk stabilisasi markoekonomi Indonesia yang belakangan terganggu akibat volatilitas global. Gubernur BI yang baru, Perry Warijyo menjelaskan bahwa ke depannya, kebijakan BI cenderung lebih ketat dibandingkan era sebelumnya, yang cenderung netral. Sebagai dampak dari kenaikkan tingkat suku bunga ini, beliau juga menyatakan bahwa prediksi tingkat inflasi pada 2018 adalah sekitar 3,6% dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 5,2%. Beliau juga menyatakan bahwa pelaku pasar tidak perlu berlomba-lomba menaikkan tingkat suku bunga sehubungan dengan naiknya tingkat suku bunga acuan BI ini apabila likuiditasnya cukup. Today, Government bond prices on the secondary market are likely to weaken moderately because of US 10-years treasury yield increasing and will be restrained by Rupiah tendency to appreciate. Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 13,893 13,966, while yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 7.00% %. Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah terbatas akibat kenaikan yield AS yang dibatasi oleh kecenderungan apresiasi Rupiah akibat kenaikkan 7DRR. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp Rp sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,00% - 7,22%.

2 Most Active Government Bonds Last Price Last Yield Volume Volume Most Active Corporate Bonds Last Price Last Yield (IDR bn) (IDR bn) FR SMFP04ACN4 idaaa FR BBIA01ACN2 AAA(idn) FR PJAA01BCN2 idaa FR IMFI03ACN3 ida FR OTMA02B idaa FR BBRI01BCN3 idaaa PBS BEXI03ACN5 idaaa FR IIFF01A idaaa FR BBRI02BCN4 idaaa SPNS BBRI02ACN4 idaaa Global Stock Marketss Last Price Chg (bps) % Chg % YTD Global Bonds 29-May Indonesia (JCI) % -5.42% -May (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Malaysia (KLCI) % -4.31% Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield Thailand (SET) % -1.63% Fed Fund Rate Singapore (STI) % 1.2% 2-Year Hang Seng % 0.5% 5-Year Nikkei % -3.28% 10-Year Shanghai % -8.03% -Year Dow Jones (DJIA) % -0.21% 10-Year Government Bond Yield London (FTSE 100) % 0.02% UK DAX % -1.0% Germany France FX Rate 29-May China May (-1 day) (-1 week) Japan USD/IDR 13,9 14,045 14,172 Korea GBP/USD Thailand USD/JPY Malaysia USD/SGD Singapore USD/THB Indonesia USD Bond Yield USD/MYR INDO INDO Macroeconomic Data INDO Apr-18 Mar-18 Feb-18 Consumer Price Index (MoM) Money Market 29-May Consumer Price Index (YoY) May (-1 day) (-1 week) (- 1 month) Core Inflation (YoY) JIBOR BI 7-Day RR Rate (%) O/N Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn) M M Indonesia Sovereign CDS LIBOR As of 2-year 5-year 10-year 1M May M (-1 Day) M (-1 Week) Indonesia Interest Rates (-1 Month) Deposit 1M (-1 Year) Lending Benchmark 29-May (-1 day) Change Yield FR % FR % FR % FR % Government Bond Ownership As of May 24, 2018 (in Trillion) Holders May May May May-18 Banks Bank Indonesia Mutual Fund Insurance Foreign Investor Pension Fund Individual Investors Others Total , , , , , , , , Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR

3 Government Bonds Prices Closing Price Data : -May-2018 Series Maturity TTM Coupon Price YTM Price (-1) Price Spread (bps) FR Jul % % FR Aug % % FR Sep % % FR Apr % % FR Sep % % FR Nov % % FR Jun % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Jun % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Aug % % FR Mar % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Feb % % FR May % % FR Mar % % FR Aug % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Jun % % FR Aug % % FR May % % FR Mar % % FR May % % FR May % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Apr % % FR Jul % % FR May % % Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates

4 Macroeconomic Indicator Calendar (May, ( Maret June, ) INDONESIA Date Indicator Series Data Actual Previous Projection 31 M2 Money Supply (YoY) Apr % - GLOBAL Date Indicator Country Series Data Actual Previous Projection 29 Unemployment Rate Japan Apr % 2.5% 2.5% Consumer Confidence Japan May Unemployment Rate Germany May % 5.3% 5.3% Inflation Rate Prelim. (YoY) ADP Employment Change Economic Growth 2nd est. (QoQ) Germany May % 1.6% 1.8% US May thousand 163 thousand 187 thousand US Quarter-I 2.2% 2.9% 2.3% 31 NBS Manufacturing PMI China May Unemployment Rate Euro Area Apr % 8.5% 31 Inflation Rate Flash. (YoY) Euro Area May % 1.4% 31 Initial Jobless Claims US May thousand 227 thousand 31 Continuing Jobless Claims US May thousand 1707 thousand 31 Crude Oil Inventory US May million barrel 0.9 million barrel 01 Caixin Manufacturing PMI China May Non-Farm Payrolls US May thousand 185 thousand 01 Unemployment Rate US May % 3.9% Source: Tradingeconomics and Bloomberg (2018)

5 PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS Head Office Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2 Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A Jakarta Dealing Room Phone No : Fax No : Eva Sarah Hutabarat eva@megasekuritas.id Head of Debt Capital Market Cicih Sukaesih cicih@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Emilda Mardiyanti emilda.mardiyanti@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Ajeng Palupi P. palupi@megasekuritas.id Debt Sales Qolbie Ardie qolbie@megasekuritas.id Economist & Fixed Income Analyst Siti Maulina M. siti.maulina@megasekuritas.id Administrative Assistant DISCLAIMER This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights