ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY

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1 January 14, 2013 ECONOMIC & DEBT MARKET Daily Report FX RATES - SPOT CURRENCY RESEARCH DEBT MARKET Indonesia Govt Bonds Benchmark Yield USD/IDR 9, EUR/USD Year USD/JPY Year GBP/USD Year TREASURY & MONEY MARKET Yield (%) 4 Year Year Year Year IDR JIBOR 8 Year O / N Year M Year M Year USD LIBOR Indonesia Bond Index O / N M M IDMA Index BI Rate BI Rate Indonesia Govt Bonds Yield Curve IDR Average Deposit 1M M M Fed Fund (o/n) Others US T-Bills 1M US T-Bills 3M SIBOR 1M Y 2 Y 3 Y 4 Y 5 Y 6 Y 7 Y 8 Y 9 Y 10 Y 15 Y EURIBOR 1M Week -1 Month Indonesia Sovereign CDS 0 11-Oct 24-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec 15-Dec 28-Dec 10-Jan 2Y 5Y 10Y Price Yield (%) Volume (RpBn) Most Active Government Bonds FR FR FR FR FR FR SPN FR SPN ZC Y Govt Bond Yield Comparison Oct 24-Oct 6-Nov 19-Nov 2-Dec 15-Dec 28-Dec 10-Jan Most Active Corporate Bonds ADMF01BCN ADMF01CCN BNLI01SBCN PPLN10A ASDF01ACN APLN BTPN01BCN INDF BBTN BMLK01C Y U.S. Treasury Note 10Y Indonesia Soverign US$ Bond Data Source: Bloomberg & CTP Daily Report dapat dilihat di website BNI Securities:

2 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec GDP Real (YoY) Private Consumption Government Consumption Investment (GFCF) Inflation CPI (YoY) CPI (MoM) Consumption Motorcycle Sales (Units) 715, , , , , , , , , , , , , ,224 Automobile Sales (Units) 86,345 67,655 80,325 76,427 86,482 87,919 87,145 95, , ,512 76, , , ,699 Consumer Confidence Index Foreign Trade Current Account (USD mn) 1, , , , , Export (YoY) Import (YoY) Reserves Foreign Reserve (USD bn) Net Int'l Reserve (IDR tn) Moneter (YoY) M1 Money Supply M2 Money Supply Financial Sector BI rate (% p.a.) SUN 10 years (%) Foreign Exchange (IDR/USD, end of period) 8,870 9,080 9,075 9,005 9,035 9,143 9,192 9,485 9,385 9,445 9,539 9,579 9,605 9,593 9,638 Source: Bloomberg & CEIC Government Bond Ownership as of January 10, 2013 (Rp tn) Holders Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov Dec-12 4-Jan-13 9-Jan Jan-13 Banks Bank Indonesia Mutual Fund Insurance Companies Foreign Investor Pension Fund Securities Companies Others Total Source: DJPU Kemenkeu NEWS Pertumbuhan Kuartal I 2013 Diprediksi 6,2% Dominasi Penyerapan Belanja Negara Masih di Kuartal III dan IV Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada kuartal I 2013 diperkirakan akan mencapai 6%-6,2%. Capaian tersebut terlihat dari baiknya permintaan domestik khususnya kontribusi konsumsi masyarakat dan pemerintah serta investasi yang masih cukup besar. Sepanjang kuartal I 2013 kinerja ekspor diperkirakan akan mengalami perbaikan meskipun pergerakannya masih sangat terbatas sejalan dengan ekspektasi pemulihan perekonomian dunia dan kembali naiknya daya beli masyarakat. Sedangkan investasi diperkirakan masih akan tumbuh moderat. Masih tingginya investasi sejalan dengan kondusifnya iklim usaha dan mulai membaiknya kinerja ekspor meski terbatas dan impor yang berpotensi kembali meningkat. Pertumbuhan ekonomi sepanjang 2013 juga diperkirakan meningkat dibandingkan tahun lalu. Hal tersebut tercermin dari semakin baiknya kondisi ekonomi global khususnya negara-negara mitra dagang Indonesia seperti China dan Jepang. Pemerintah memperkirakan realisasi belanja pemerintah secara cash tahun 2013 masih didominasi pencairan anggaran di akhir kuartal III dan IV. Penyerapan anggaran yang sebagian besar terjadi di kuartal III dan IV (dikenal dengan kurva V) bukan menandakan penyerapan anggaran buruk di akhir tahun. Melainkan adanya kebiasaan dari Kementerian/Lembaga yang menagih anggaran di kuartal III dan IV sambil menunggu selesainya realisasi fisik. Penyerapan akan membaik karena masalah yang terjadi tahun ini diperkirakan akan berkurang dibandingkan tahun lalu, khususnya pada persoalan pengadaan tanah yang diperkirakan lebih baik. Adanya Undang- Undang Pengadaan Tanah dipastikan memuluskan percepatan penyerapan anggaran pemerintah. Secara umum, sangat sulit jika pemerintah tahun ini mengubah sistem penyerapan dengan skema kurva S. Pasalnya, penyerapan yang masih belum optimal setiap tahun disebabkan masalah desentralisasi fiskal yang belum dapat ditembus pemerintah pusat. 2

3 Government Bond Closing Price as of January 11, 2012 Series Maturity Coupon Price YTM FR Mar % % FR Jun % % FR Sep % % FR Dec % % FR May % % FR Oct % % FR Jun % % FR May % % FR Sep % % FR Apr % % FR Jul % % FR Jul % % FR Aug % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Nov % % FR Jun % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Jun % % FR Jul % % FR Jul % % FR Aug % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR Sep % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR Feb % % FR Aug % % FR Jul % % FR Jun % % FR May % % FR Jul % % FR May % % FR Apr % % Source: Bloomberg 3

4 MACRO & DEBT RESEARCH TEAM Research Department : Fax No : research@bnisecurities.co.id Norico Gaman ext norico@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Research Josua Pardede ext josua.pardede@bnisecurities.co.id Economist Venia Allani Meissalina ext venia@bnisecurities.co.id Research Assistant DEBT MARKET TEAM Debt Capital Market Division : Fax No : fi@bnisecurities.co.id Sukartono ext karton@bnisecurities.co.id Head of Division Andilla Rusnadi ext andilla@bnisecurities.co.id Debt Sales 4

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