HSBC Trade Confidence Index Indonesia

Transkripsi

1 HSBC Trade Confidence Index Indonesia September 2010 HSBC Trade and Supply Chain 1

2 HSBC Trade Confidence Index September 2010 Survey ini merupakan survey global keempat yang dilakukan oleh HSBC Trade and Supply Chain terhadap usaha kecil dan menegah yang melalukan perdagangan internasional Dilakukan oleh perusahaan independen TNS (Taylor Nelson Sofres) terhadap eksportir dan importir di Australia, India, Hong Kong, China, Singapura, Uni Emirat Arab, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Inggris, Amerika Serikat, Brasil, Kanada, Perancis, Jerman, Meksiko, dan Arab Saudi Survey dilakukan dari tanggal 19 Juli sampai 1 September 2010 Mengukur sentimen dan pandangan/ekspektasi terhadap aktivitas perdagangan internasional dan pertumbuhan bisnis dalam 6 bulan mendatang 2

3 Small and medium business definitions for survey Area Geographical coverage Sample size Annual turnover Australia India New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, Australian Capital Territory Mumbai, Chennai, New Delhi, Kolkata Bangalore, Hyderabad 300 A$30m-200m Hong Kong Hong Kong 300 HK$25m-2bn 315 RS300m-2bn Mainland China Nationwide 301 RMB500m-2bn Singapore Singapore 300 S$15m-600m UAE Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Sharjah 304 US$10m-75m Vietnam Ho Chi Minh, Hanoi 300 <US$10m Indonesia Jakarta, Surabaya 300 US$250, m Malaysia Kuala Lumpur, Petaling Jaya, Penang- 304 < RM150m Georgetown, Johore Bahru, Kuching, Kota UK Kinabalu Nationwide 300 GBP 15m - 250m USA Nationwide 300 USD$20m to $250m Brazil Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro 300 BRL5m-100m Canada Nationwide 300 US $20m 250m Germany Nationwide 300 US $20m 250m France Nationwide 300 US $20m 250m Mexico Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey 300 US $5m 60m KSA Jeddah, Riyadh, Dammam 300 US $10m 75m 3

4 Temuan Global

5 HSBC Trade Confidence Index Key index questions Hal-hal berikut ini merupakan parameter dalam perhitungan indeks HSBC Trade Confidence Monitor (prediksi enam bulan) : Prediksi volume ekspor/impor Prediksi risiko gagal bayar dari pembeli Prediksi risiko supplier tidak memenuhi perjanjian perdagangan Prediksi terhadap kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan Prediksi terhadap akses kepada pembiayaan perdagangan internasional Prediksi terhadap dampak nilai tukar Prediksi terhadap dampak dari regulasi pemerintah Perhitungan indeks : ( respon positif - respon negatif) Rata rata hasil dari 7 pertanyaan Rentang nilai dari 0 (tingkat keyakinan terendah) hingga 200 (tingkat keyakinan tertinggi). Nilai tengahnya adalah 100 Semua indeks tidak tertimbang Harap diperhatikan dalam membandingkan hasil dengan gelombang sebelumnya : Sejak periode 1H10 dan seterusnya kerangka acuan waktunya diubah menjadi 6 bulan sedangkan gelombang sebelumnya yang menggunakan acuan waktu 3 bulan. 5

6 HSBC Trade Confidence Index Ulasan Global Secara umum, semua negara yang disurvei berpandangan positif terhadap prospek perdagangan internasional India, UAE, Indonesia dan Mexico adalah negara-negara yang mempunyai tingkat kepercayaan tertinggi Emerging market cenderung memiliki tingkat kepercayaan lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan negara maju Tingkat kepercayaan pengusaha di China dan Vietnam merosot jika dibandingkan dengan semester 1, H Positiv e Neutral Negativ 60 e HK France Germany USA UK Australia Canada China SingaporeMalaysia Saudi Arabia Vietnam Brazil Indonesia Mexico UAE India Overall Global Index Note: (1) The Overall Global Index is the unweighted average of the 17 markets listed above 6

7 Temuan Indonesia

8 HSBC Trade Confidence Index Overview Trade Confidence Index di Indonesia ada pada level positif, sedikit turun dari semester 1/2010, namun masih diatas hasil survey pada semester 2/ Positive Neutral 100 Negative H09 1H10 2H10 8

9 Prediksi terhadap volume perdagangan dari responden di Indonesia mempunyai pandangan bahwa volume perdagangan akan stabil atau meningk 51 dari responden berpandangan bahwa volume perdagangan akan meningkat H H1 2 0 Decrease significantly H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 Decrease slightly 15 Maintain same level Increase slightly Increase significantly Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding and the exclusion of Don t know/refused responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 9 Source: Q1. How do you expect the volume of your import, export business to change in the next 6 months? Do you expect the volume of your import, export business to increase significantly, increase slightly, maintain the same level, decrease slightly or decrease significantly?

10 Prediksi risiko gagal bayar dari pembeli Lebih dari 50 responden di Indonesia berpandangan bahwa risiko gagal bayar dari pembeli akan stabil. Hanya 16 dari responden yang berpandangan bahwa buyer default/non payment akan meningkat H H1 0 Decrease significantly 26 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 Decrease slightly Maintain same level Increase slightly 2 Increase significantly Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding and the exclusion of Don t know/refused responses. Base: Indonesia n=139, excluding pure importers (only import raw materials or semi-finished/ finished goods; does not involve in any exports activities, not a commodity trading company, and not an import or export broker/ wholesaler). Source: Q2A. How do you expect the risk of your buyers defaulting on payment to change in the next 6 months? 10

11 Strategi untuk mengatasi risiko gagal bayar Lebih dari 50 responden di Indonesia mempunyai strategi untuk meminta pembayaran dimuka atau memberi persyaratan pembayaran yang lebih fleksibel untuk mengatasi risiko gagal bayar dari pembeli. Pembayaran dimuka Persyaratan pembayaran yang lebih fleksibel 27 (+4) 23 (+8) 2H10 (Chang e from 1H10) Perketat syarat pembayaran / durasi 14 (+6) ^Meningkatkan penggunaan pembiayaan perdagangan via bank Asuransi kredit ekspor (melalui lembaga keuangan Anda) 9 (+1) 14 (/ ) Kurangi bisnis dengan pembeli jenis ini 9 (-22) Asuransi kredit ekspor (didukung dengan skema pemerintah) 5 (/ ) Terima sedikit pesanan untuk mengurangi risiko per transaksi 5 (-3) *Caution with low base n<30 Notes: ^ Includes documentary credit. Bills for collection, export finance/receivables finance (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Base: Indonesia n=22*, only those who answered increase significantly or increase slightly in Q2A Source: Q2B. What strategies, if any do you intend to put in place over the coming 6 months to overcome non-payment risk from buyers? Multiple mentions. 11

12 Prediksi risiko supplier tidak memenuhi perjanjian perdagangan Sepertiga dari responden di Indonesia mempunyai pandangan positif bahwa pelanggaran perjanjian perdagangan oleh supplier akan berkurang H0 1H1 2H Decrease significantly H09 1H10 2H10 Decrease slightly 2H0 1H1 9 0 Maintain same level 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 Increase slightly Increase significantly 2 Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding and the exclusion of Don t know/refused responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q3A. How do you expect the risk of suppliers not honouring agreed trade arrangements to change in the next 6 months? 12

13 Alasan-alasan meningkatnya risiko supplier tidak memenuhi syarat perjanjian perdagangan Kondisi keuangan supplier memburuk Resesi global, bisnis menjadi tidak stabil 23 (-6) 27 (+13) 2H10 (Chang e from 1H10) Berkurangnya ketersediaan bahan baku 23 (+9) Tidak bersedia menerima pembayaran yang fleksibel, seperti kredit dan syarat pembayaran 20 (-1) Menurunnya kinerja pengiriman dari supplier 10 (+3) Kapasitas logistik dan transportasi yang tidak memadai 3 (-11) Base: Indonesia n=30, only those who answered increase significantly or increase slightly in Q3A. Source: Q3B. Why do you expect the risks of suppliers not honouring agreed trade arrangements to increase significantly/ increase slightly? Multiple mentions. 13

14 Alasan-alasan menurunnya risiko supplier tidak memenuhi syarat perjanjian perdagangan Kondisi keuangan supplier anda yang membaik Meningkatnya ketersediaan bahan baku 30 (-3) 24 (+10) 2H10 (Chang e from 1H10) bersedia menerima pembayaran yang fleksibel seperti kredit dan syarat pembayaran 21 (-19) Kapasitas logistik dan transportasi yang memadai 13 (+1) Membaiknya kinerja pengiriman dari supplier 10 (+6) Tidak tahu / menolak 1 (/) Note: (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Base: Indonesia n=89, only those who answered decrease significantly or decrease slightly in Q3A. Source: Q3C. Why do you expect the risks of suppliers not honouring agreed trade arrangements to decrease significantly/ decrease slightly? Multiple mentions. 14

15 Prediksi terhadap kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan Lebih dari 60 responden di Indonesia berpandangan bahwa kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan akan meningkat. Bank merupakan salah satu sarana untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan internasional Sumber pemenuhan kebutuhan pembiayaan perdagangan internasional Self-funded 34 (33) 2H10 (1H10) Your bank(s) 26 (21) H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 Decrease significantly Decrease slightly Maintain same level Increase slightly Increase significantly Payment terms from suppliers 11 (13) Through buyer support 28 (33 ) Note (1): For Outlook on the need for trade finance, figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding and the exclusion of Don t know/refused responses. Note (2): For Channels to meet future trade financing obligations, figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Base: Indonesia n=300 +Figures with less than 1 mentions are not shown. Source: Outlook on the need for trade finance - Q4. In the next six months, do you expect your need for trade finance to increase significantly, increase slightly, maintain the same level, decrease slightly or decrease significantly? Channels to meet future trade financing obligations - Q5B. Which of the following do you expect to be the main source to meet your future trade financing obligations? 15

16 Prediksi terhadap akses kepada pembiayaan perdagangan internasional Hampir 50 dari responden di Indonesia berpandangan bahwa akses kepada pembiayaan perdagangan internasional akan meningkat H09 1H1 1 0 Decrease significantly H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 Decrease slightly Maintain same level Increase slightly 7 10 Increase significantly Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding and the exclusion of Don t know/refused responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q5A. In the next six months, how do you expect your capacity to access trade finance to change? 16

17 Prediksi terhadap dampak nilai tukar Walaupun fluktuasi nilai tukar merupakan kendala utama bagi perkembangan usaha berbasis ekspor/impor di Indonesia, 31 dari responden yang berpandangan bahwa nilai tukar akan berdampak positif (favorable) terhadap mereka. 55 dari responden berpandangan bahwa nilai tukar tidak akan berdampak bagi mereka H H1 0 Very unfavourable H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 Unfavourable Neither favourable nor unfavourable Favourable 1 Very favourable Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding and the exclusion of Don t know/refused responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q7. How would you expect exchange rates to impact your import, export business in the next 6 months? 17

18 Prediksi terhadap dampak dari regulasi pemerintah Hanya 12 dari responden yang berpandangan bahwa regulasi pemerintah akan memberikan dampak positif bagi kegiatan perdagangan yang mereka lakukan H1 2H09 0 Very unfavourable H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 Unfavourable Neither favourable nor unfavourable Favourable 0 Very favourable Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding and the exclusion of Don t know/refused responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q8. How would you expect government trade regulations to impact your import, export business in the next 6 months? 18

19 Kendala utama dalam pertumbuhan bisnis impor/ekspor Fluktuasi nilai tukar serta regulasi perdagangan merupakan kendala utama dalam pertumbuhan bisnis impor/ekspor. Fluktuasi nilai tukar Regulasi perdagangan Kekurangan permintaan terhadap produk 29 (+5) 46 (-1) 44 (+16) 2H10 (Chang e from 1H10) Minimnya margin / laba 21 (+4) Kenaikan suku bunga 19 (-11) Biaya pokok seperti shipping, logistik, dan gudang 18 (+6) Supplier melanggar perjanjian perdagangan 11 (+4) Pembeli gagal bayar 11 (0) Ketersediaan kredit / likuiditas Lainnya 1 (/ ) Tidak ada kendala 11 (-10) 27 (-6) +Figures with less than 1 mentions are not Note: shown. (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q10. Over the next six months, what do you see as the top three barriers to growing your import, export business? Up to three mentions allowed 19

20 Negara/kawasan tujuan perdagangan internasional China dan Asia Tenggara merupakan negara/kawasan tujuan utama perdagangan internasional. Greater China Asia Tenggara USA / Canada Asia lainnya Eropa Tengah/Timur (tanpa Jerman) Eropa Barat (tanpa UK) 22 (-3) 19 (+4) 17 (+4) 16 (-1) 44 (-7) 41 (+1) 2H10 (Chang e from 1H10) Timur Tengah Australia / New Zealand Amerika Latin Jerman Afrika UK Lainnya 9 (+1) 9 (-5) 6 (+3) 6 (-3) 2 (-3) 1 (-5) 1 (/ ) Notes: (/) Denotes result is not available as there was no mention in the previous wave. Greater China includes Hong Kong SAR, Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: S3B. Which of the following regions are you trading with? Multiple mentions. +Figures with less than 1 mentions are not shown. 20

21 Negara/kawasan yang berpotensi menjadi tujuan perdagangan internasional dalam 6 bulan mendatang Negara/kawasan Asia Tenggara dan China dipandang sebagai kawasan yang berpotensi menjadi tujuan perdagangan internasional dalam 6 bulan ke depan Asia Tenggara Greater China Eropa Timur/Tengah (tanpa Jerman) 8 (+3) 27 (+4) 27 (-13) 2H10 (Chang e from 1H10) Asia lainnya USA / Canada Australia / New Zealand Timur Tengah Eropa Barat (tanpa UK) Amerika Latin Jerman Afrika 6 (-1) 5 (0) 5 (+1) 4 (-4) 3 (+1) 3 (+2) 3 (0) 1 (-1) Tidak tahu / menolak 5 (+5) Notes: Greater China includes Hong Kong SAR, Mainland China, Taiwan, Macau Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q9. Over the next six months, which of these regions do you see as having the best opportunity for your business growth? +Figures with less than 1 mentions are not shown. 21

22 Prediksi perekonomian global Lebih dari 60 responden di Indonesia berpandangan bahwa perekonomian global akan bertumbuh H09 1H1 0 Decline significantly H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 2H09 1H10 2H10 Decline slightly Maintain same level Grow slightly 9 17 Grow significantly Note: Figures may not add up to 100 due to rounding and the exclusion of Don t know/refused responses. Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q13. How do you expect the global economy, to change in the next 6 months? Do you expect the global economy to? 22

23 Mata uang untuk trade settlement hingga 6 bulan mendatang Dollar AS masih merupakan mata uang utama dalam transaksi perdagangan internasional. US Dollar Indonesian Rupiah Euros Singaporean Dollar Renminbi, or Chinese Yuan Japanese Yen 14 5 Australian Dollar Hong Kong Dollar Primary currency Secondary currencies All currencies Note: Only top 10 currencies are shown Base: Indonesia n=300 Source: Q15. Which currency do you expect to be your main trade settlement currency in the next 6 months? Q16. Are there any other currencies you envisage using for trade transactions in the next 6 months? +Figures with less than 2 mentions are not shown. 23

24 HSBC Trade Confidence Index Kesimpulan Negara-negara di emerging market mempunyai pandangan optimis terhadap kegiatan perdagangan internasional. Hasil ini konsisten dengan hasil survey terdahulu. Sentimen positif dari emerging market merupakan indikator penting bahwa perdagangan internasional merupakan salah satu penggerak dari pertumbuhan ekonomi global. Pengusaha di Indonesia mempunyai tingkat kepercayaan yang lebih tinggi dari pengusaha yang berada di kawasan Asia akan perdagangan internasional. Kegiatan perdagangan intra Asia sangat mendominasi kegiatan pengusaha Indonesia. China merupakan partner perdagangan terbesar bagi pengusaha Indonesia sekarang. Sedangkan dalam 6 bulan ke depan, selain China, kawasan Asia Tenggara merupakan kawasan tujuan yang dianggap menjanjikan bagi pengusaha Indonesia. Eksportir/importir Indonesia belum memaksimalkan peran Bank dalam membantu kegiatan perdagangan internasional. 24

25 Appendix Respondent Profile

26 Sample Breakdown Tables below shows the breakdown of interviews achieved on industry level Industry Import / Export Trades (Trading) 21 Manufacturing 9 Wholesale / Retail 41 Construction 1 Others 28 26

27 Trading Types Your business exports semifinished / finished goods 38 You are an import or export broker / wholesaler 2 Your business imports semi-finished / finished goods 44 Your business imports raw materials 27 Your business exports raw materials 8 +Figures with less than 1 mentions are not shown. 27

28 Respondent Profile Job title and Employee size Job Title Employee Size Head of Department 22 Head of Sales 20 1 to Chief Accountant 16 Import / Export Manager / Import / Export Unspecified Owner / President Director of Finance / Head of Purchasing 6 Manager / Assistant Manager Managing Director / Deputy Managing Di rector 3 General Manager Program Development Manager / Business Development Manager Sales / Marketing Manager / Marketing unspecified Accounting / Finance Manager or above 10 CFO / CEO / COO 1 +Figures with less than 1 mentions are not shown. 28

29 Respondent Profile Annual Sales Turnover Indonesia Over USD 250K to 20 million / Over IDR 2.4 billion to 190 billion 72 Over USD 20 million to 40 million/ Over IDR 190 billion to 380 billion 17 Over USD 40 million to 60 million / Over IDR 380 billion to 570 billion 8 Over USD 60 million to 80 million / Over IDR 570 billion to 760 billion 2 Over USD 80 million to 100 million / Over IDR 760 billion to 950 billion 1 29