Investment Outlook September 2016

Transkripsi

1 Unit Link Investment Outlook September 2016 Berdasarkan data Agustus 2016 Investment Division

2 Agenda 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Performance & Forecast

3 1 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Performance & Forecast

4 Dashboard Makroekonomi 2016 Inflasi Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Rata- Rata Nilai Tukar Defisit Neraca Berjalan Realisasi % 4.79% 12, % 1Q % 4.92% 13, % 2Q % 5.18% 13, % APBN-P % 5.2% 13, % Internal Use Only 4

5 Market Outlook Global 2016 AMERIKA SERIKAT Data jobless-claim bulan Agustus sedikit membaik dari bulan sebelumnya. Angka jobless claim terjaga tetap di bawah level untuk rentang waktu yang cukup lama yaitu 19 bulan. Jobless claim tercatat berbanding estimasi sebesar Lapangan pekerjaan bertambah lebih rendah dari bulan sebelumnya sebesar Meski begitu angka pengangguran turun menjadi 4.8% EROPA Inflasi zona Euro pada bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 0.2%, tidak berubah dari bulan sebelumnya. Dari sisi neraca perdagangan, baik ekspor maupiun impor mengalami penurunan untuk data per bulan Juli. Impor turun 8% sedangkan ekspor turun 10%. ASIA Pertumbuhan produksi industri Tiongkok kembali bergeliat di bulan Agustus dengan tumbuh sebesar 6.3% secara tahunan setelah bulan sebelumnya hanya tumbuh 6%. Pertumbuhan juga terjadi pada sektor ritel sebesar 10.6%, lebih tinggi dari bulan sebelumnya 10.2%. Perekonomian Jepang tumbuh 0.7% pada kuartal 2, lebih tinggi dari estimasi yang hanya 0.2%. Internal Use Only 5

6 Market Outlook Domestik 2016 DORONGAN TAX AMNESTY Peningkatan uang tebusan di bulan September jauh melampaui angka gabungan ulan Juli - Agustus. Per 15 September, dana tebusan yang sudah masuk mencapai Rp22.7 triliun dengan total aset yang dideklarasi sebesar Rp552.7 triliun KREDIBILITAS ANGGARAN APBN 2017 sudah mulai memasuki tahap penyusunan. Melihat penerimaan pajak tahun ini yang kemungkinan akan di bawah target, menteri keuangan sudah merevisi target [ertumbuhan ekonomi tahun depan menjadi 5.2%. APBN-P 2016 kembali mengalami pemotongan setelah sebelumnya dipotong sebesar Rp165 Triliun untuk menjaga defisit anggaran di bawah 3% MAKROEKONOMI KONDUSIF Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terjaga secara rata-rata 5% dan juga inflasi yang rendah membuat indoneisa kondusif untuk investasi. Inflasi sejak awal tahun per bulan Agustus tercatat sebesar 1.7%. Dana asing yang masuk juga mulai menopang neraca berjalan sehingga defisit juga mulai menipis. Internal Use Only 6

7 2 1 Investment Issues 2 Allianz Performance & Forecast 7

8 Allianz Performance - Conventional No. 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 3 Tahun YTD SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Indoconsumer SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Infrastructure SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia SmartWealth Equity Indoglobal 3.48% 8.85% 11.35% 25.83% 26.27% 23.52% 2.66% 14.77% 16.93% 20.77% #N/A 17.37% 2.37% 9.19% 13.01% 17.77% 30.15% 15.17% 2.36% 9.41% 13.07% 21.37% #N/A 16.11% 5 Smartlink Rupiah Equity 2.34% 10.72% 12.33% 22.29% 32.60% 18.44% Total Aset IDR (Mil) USD (Jt) Peluncuran Jun Sep May-11 7-Nov-14 8, Sep-07 6 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus 1.54% 9.10% 11.36% 20.45% 27.15% 16.48% Jul-09 7 SmartWealth US Dollar Equity IndoAsia 1.27% 12.31% 14.29% 24.40% 7.33% 18.59% May-12 8 Smartlink Dollar Managed 0.86% 6.15% 9.86% 12.62% 25.75% 12.61% Smartlink Rupiah Balanced SmartWealth Liquiflex LQ45 Smartlink Rupiah Money Market 0.76% 6.00% 8.81% 15.60% 24.68% 12.43% 0.64% 3.03% -1.16% 0.93% 16.85% -0.06% 0.42% 1.31% 2.80% 5.96% 20.92% 3.91% Apr-03 2, Mar Jul May Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap 0.41% 1.08% 2.31% 5.21% #N/A 3.30% Aug SmartWealth Rupiah Equity Small Medium Capital Smartlink Rupiah Fixed Income -0.12% 9.76% 14.25% 21.04% #N/A 15.96% Sep % 4.97% 10.61% 17.17% 26.30% 14.33% Internal Use Only 1, May-01 8

9 Allianz Performance - Syariah No. 1 Bulan 3 Bulan 6 Bulan 1 Tahun 3 Tahun YTD Total Aset IDR (Mil) USD (Jt) Peluncuran 1 Allisya Rupiah Equity 1.89% 12.69% 14.65% 23.16% 25.33% 21.64% 2 Allisya Rupiah Balanced 1.14% 7.93% 9.94% 15.69% 22.42% 14.33% 3 Allisya Rupiah Fixed Income 0.42% 3.93% 7.06% 11.56% 21.41% 9.57% Apr Apr Jul-09 Internal Use Only 9

10 Forecast No. Jangka Pendek Jangka Panjang 1 SmartWealth Dollar Equity IndoAsia 2 SmartWealth Rupiah Equity IndoAsia 3 SmartWealth Equity Indo Global 4 SmartWealth Equity Small Medium Capital 5 SmartWealth Equity Infrastructure 6 SmartWealth Equity Indoconsumer 7 Smartlink Rupiah Equity 8 SmartWealth Equity Liquiflex LQ45 9 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced Plus 10 Smartlink Rupiah Balanced 11 Smartlink Dollar Managed 12 Smartlink Guardia Dana Pendapatan Tetap 13 Smartlink Fixed Income 14 Smartlink Rupiah Money Market 10

11 Forecast No. Jangka Pendek Jangka Panjang 1 Allisya Equity 2 Allisya Balanced 3 Allisya Fixed Income 11

12 Disclaimer This document is prepared for general information only, and the specific investment objectives, personal situation and particular needs of any person have not been taken into consideration. You should read the relevant product and fund documentation, including the relevant product summary, product highlights sheets and fund summaries for details before deciding to invest. Copies of the product and fund documentation can be obtained from our authorized agents or distributors. The past performance of any fund is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the fund. The value of investments and units in any fund June go down as well as up, which is an investment risk which you June face. You should not rely on this document as investment advice. If you have any concerns about any investment products or are uncertain about the suitability of any investment decision, you should seek such financial advice from your professional advisers as appropriate. Information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, however Allianz does not guarantee its completeness or accuracy. Opinions and estimates expressed are subject to change without notice and Allianz expressly disclaims any and all liability for representations and warranties, express or implied, contained herein, or for omissions.

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