Fundamental & Technical Outlook ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 1 of 6 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Asia: Bursa saham Asia melorot dari posisi tertinggi 7 pekan dipicu turunnya harga minyak. Indeks MSCI untuk saham Asia- Pasifik diluar Jepang turun 0,3% dan Nikkei Jepang juga menghapus keuntungannya untuk kemudian ditutup melemah 0,4%. Bursa Cina ditutup turun 0,9%, penurunan tertajamnya dalam 3 pekan. Indeks Kospi Korea dan ASX Australia keduanya juga ditutup melemah. Harga minyak sebelumnya melejit 7% di hari Senin dan reli sekitar 30% dari posisi terendah sebulan lalu. Namun di hari Selasa, harga minyak turun oleh concern bahwa pemangkasan produksi minyak AS kemungkinan akan diimbangi oleh meningkatnya output dari Iran. Eropa: Bursa Eropa juga ditutup melemah pada hari Selasa karena turunnya harga minyak dan juga update yang mengecewakan dari Standard Chartered dan BHP Billiton, namun ekspektasi adanya Merger dan Akuisisi diantara bursa mendorong saham-saham didalamnya. Berita dari pembicaraan merger antara Deutsche Boerse dan London Stock Exchange untuk membuat kelompok besar perdagangan Eropa mengirim saham mereka masing-masing naik 3,2 dan 13 persen, juga membeli saham di operator bursa lainnya seperti Euronext dan BME Spanyol. Indeks saham Inggris juga melemah dipicu oleh turunnya saham Standard Chartered (perbankan) dan juga BHP Billiton (pertambangan), mengimbangi kenaikan pada London Stock Exchange Group seiring pembicaraan mengenai merger. AS & Global Markets: Turunnya harga minyak picu pelemahan bursa global pada hari Selasa, setelah usulan untuk memangkas produksi minyak oleh sejumlah produsen minyak dunia meredup. Pasca melejit lebih dari 5% di hari Senin yang berhasil mendorong naiknya ekuitas dunia lebih dari 1%, Brent dan juga U.S. crude merosot tajam setelah Menteri Perminyakan Saudi Ali Al-Naimi mengatakan ia menyambut baik semua sumber pasokan, sementara Iran ditengarai tidak mungkin untuk menyetujui plafon output. Penurunan harga minyak telah memukul saham energi dan finansial di Wall Street. Sterling masih tertekan terhadap dolar oleh kekhawatiran terjadinya Brexit. Euro juga terkoreksi mendekati terendah 3 pekan terhadap dolar akibat kekhawatiran Brexit yang akan berpotensi melemahkan Uni Eropa. Sedangkan Treasury AS tenor 10 tahun berhasil rebound. Dow Jones terkonsolidasi pasca gagal breakout 17000. Adapun data penting AS yang akan dicermati investor saat ini adalah durable goods (Kamis). Perkembangan ekonomi Cina juga akan diperhatikan untuk melihat kemungkinan terjadi depresiasi nilai tukar yuan setelah data ekspor-impor negara tersebut jatuh. ASIA AND GLOBAL MARKET SPOT PRICE 2016 HIGH / LOW.N225.KS200.HSI.DJI /.SPX /.SSEC RECORD HIGH 38915.87 (29/Dec/89) 295.51 (03/May/11) 31958.41 (30/Oct/07) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 6124.04400 (16/Oct./07) 2015 HIGH 20952.71 (24/Jun/2015) 275.11 (24/Apr/2015) 28588.52 (27/Apr/2015) 18351.36 (19/May/2015) 2134.72 (20/May/2015) 5178.19100 (12/Jun/2015) 2016 HIGH 18951.12 239.35 21794.84 17405.48 2038.20 3538.68940 2016 LOW 14865.77 (12/Feb/16) 222.92 (20/Jan/16) 18278.80 (12/Feb/16) 15450.56 (20/Jan/16) 1810.10 (11/Feb/16) 2638.30160 (27/Jan/16) 2015 LOW 16592.57 (16/Jan/2015) 217.52 (24/Aug/2015) 20368.12 (29/Sep/2015) 15370.33 (24/Aug/2015) 1867.01 (24/Aug/2015) 2850.71350 (26/Aug/2015) RECORD LOW 85.25 (06/Jul/50) 31.96 (16/Jun/98) 58.61 (31/Aug/67) 388.20 (17/Jan/55) 132.93 (23/Nov./82) 325.92200 (29/Jul/94) Closing Prices 23 February 2016 CLOSE CHANGE CLOSE CHANGE.DJI 16431.78 188.88 / 1.14%.N225 16052.05 59.00/0.37% /.SPX 1921.27 24.23 / 1.25%.KS200 235.03 0.08/0.03% /.IXIC 4503.583 67.024/1.47%.HSI 19414.78 49.31/0.25% JPY= 112.06 0.85/ 0.75% /.SSEC 2903.95420 23.22080/0.79% KRW= 1230.53 7.44 / 0.61% /CLc1(Oil) 31.37 0.11 / 0.35% DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
Fundamental & Technical Outlook ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 2 of 6 WEEKLY ECONOMIC INDICATORS DATE WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST LAST REV MON/22-Feb 09.00 JP Nikkei Mfg PMI Flash Feb 50.2 52.0 IND 52.3 20.30 US National Activity Index Jan 0.28 N/A IND -0.22-0.34 21.45 US Markit Mfg Flash PMI Feb 51.0 52.5 IND 52.4 TUE/23-Feb 15.30 HK Consumer Price Index Jan 2.7 N/A % N/A 15.30 HK Unemployment Rate Jan 3.3 N/A % 3.3 21.00 US Caseshiller 20 MM SA Dec 0.8 0.9 % 0.9 1.0 21.00 US CaseShiller 20 MM NSA Dec 0.0 0.1 % 0.1 21.00 US CaseShiller 20 YY Dec 5.7 5.8 % 5.8 5.7 22.00 US Consumer Confidence Feb 92.2 97.0 IND 98.1 97.8 22.00 US Existing Home Sales Jan 5.47 5.32 M 5.46 5.45 22.00 US Exist. Home Sales % Chg. Jan 0.4-2.9 % 14.7 12.1 22.00 US Rich Fed Comp Index Feb -4 2 IND 2 22.00 US Rich Fed Services Index Feb -2 N/A IND 10 22.00 US Rich Fed Mfg Shipments Feb -11 N/A IND -6 WED/24-Feb 07.30 AU Construction Work Done Q4-2.0 % -3.6 07.30 AU Wage Price Index QQ Q4 0.6 % 0.6 07.30 AU Wage Price Index YY Q4 2.3 % 2.3 10.00 HK GDP QQ Q4 N/A % 0.9 10.00 HK GDP YY Q4 N/A % 2.3 21.45 US Markit Comp Flash PMI Feb N/A IND 53.2 21.45 US Markit Svcs PMI Flash Feb 53.5 IND 53.2 22.00 US New Home Sales - Units Jan 0.520 M 0.544 22.00 US New Home Sales Chg. MM Jan -4.4 % 10.8 22.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e 3.165 M 2.147 THU/25-Feb 04.00 KR Consumer Sentiment Ind Feb N/A IND 100 07.00 US FOMC Bullard Speaks 07.30 AU Capital Expenditure Q4-3.0 % -9.2 07.30 AU Building Capex Q4-4.7 % -9.8 07.30 AU Plant/Machinery Capex Q4 0.0 % -8.2 15.30 HK Imports Jan N/A % -4.6 15.30 HK Exports Jan N/A % -1.1 19.30 US Build Permits R Numb MM Jan N/A M 1.202 19.30 US Build Permits R Chg. MM Jan N/A % -0.2 20.30 US Initial Jobless Claims W/E 270 K 262 20.30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. W/E N/A K 273.25 20.30 US Continued Jobless Claims W/E 2.260 M 2.273 20.30 US Durables Goods Jan 2.8 % -5.0 20.30 US Nondefe Cap Ex-Air Jan 0.8 % -4.3 21.00 US Monthly Home Price MM Dec N/A % 0.5 21.00 US Monthly Home Price YY Dec N/A % 5.9 21.00 US Monthly Home Price Index Dec N/A IND 228.8 23.00 US KC Fed Manufacturing Feb N/A IND -8 23.00 US KC Fed Composite Index Feb N/A IND -9 FRI/26-Feb 06.30 JP CPI Core Nationwide YY Jan 0.0 % 0.1 06.30 JP CPI Overall Nationwide Jan N/A % 0.2 06.30 JP CPI Core Tokyo YY Feb -0.2 % -0.1 06.30 JP CPI Overall Tokyo Feb -0.2 % -0.3 08.30 CN China House Prices YY Jan N/A % 1.6 20.30 US Adv Goods Trade Balance Jan N/A B -61.50 20.30 US GDP 2nd Estimate Q4 0.4 % 0.7 20.30 US GDP Sales Prelim Q4 1.1 % 1.2 20.30 US GDP Cons Spending Prelim Q4 N/A % 2.2 20.30 US GDP Deflator Prelim Q4 0.8 % 0.8 20.30 US Core PCE Prices Prelim Q4 1.2 % 1.2 20.30 US PCE Prices Prelim Q4 0.1 % 0.1 21.55 US UoM Sentiment Final Feb 91.0 IND 90.7
ASIA STOCK INDEX Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 3 of 6 21.55 US UoM Conditions Final Feb 105.8 IND 105.8 21.55 US UoM Expectations Final Feb 80.8 IND 81.0 22.00 US Personal Consump Real MM Jan N/A % 0.1 22.00 US Personal Income MM Jan 0.4 % 0.3 22.00 US Consumption Adjusted MM Jan 0.3 % 0.0 22.00 US Core PCE Price Index MM Jan 0.2 % 0.0 22.00 US Core PCE Price Index YY Jan N/A % 1.4 22.00 US PCE Price Index MM Jan N/A % -0.1 22.00 US PCE Price Index YY Jan N/A % 0.6 01.00 US Dallas Fed PCE Jan N/A % 0.9 (Source: Reuters-FXstreet-DailyFX- Research @nikolasprasetia@her1en)
Fundamental & Technical Outlook ASIA STOCK INDEX Page 4 of 6 SSIamH6 (Nikkei March Futures) Last Trading Date: 14 Mar. 2016 Formasi descending triangle Area 15600 16350 masih efektif Short-term support di 15600 Strong support di 14760 (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 23 Feb SSIpmH6 16060 16065 15845 220 15910 --- 170 1.06 26066 23 Feb SSIamH6 16160 16340 15990 350 16080 16080 5 0.03 68068 22 Feb SSIpmH6 16080 16280 16070 210 16185 --- 110 0.68 18289 22 Feb SSIamH6 15790 16175 15770 405 16075 16075 65 0.41 61714 19 Feb SSIpmH6 15985 16030 15740 290 15780 --- 230 1.44 22830 19 Feb SSIamH6 15980 16015 15770 245 16010 16010 195 1.20 64267 18 Feb SSIpmH6 16200 16275 16050 225 16050 --- 155 0.96 26159 18 Feb SSIamH6 16180 16335 16090 245 16205 16205 455 2.89 65142 17 Feb SSIpmH6 15695 16165 15630 535 16145 --- 395 2.51 31077 17 Feb SSIamH6 15935 16205 15610 595 15750 15750 305 1.90 82059 WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 16340 15770 17900 14770 18945 15790 18945 14770 (23/Feb) (22/Feb) (01/Feb) (12/Feb) (04/Jan) (21/Jan) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION 16700 Pivot line RESISTANCE SUPPORT 16530 Pivot line 16340 Short-term resistance 16200 Pivot line 15610 Low 17/Feb/2016 14760 Low 21/Oct/2014 14525 Low 20/Oct/2014 14370 Low 17/Oct/2014 (Bottom) BUY ---- RECOMMENDATION SELL 16105 STOP LOSS 16225 15900 TARGET 15740 DISCLAIMER: All contents of This Report have been prepared by Research Dept. and are provided solely for informational purpose. We have taken reasonable measures to ensure the accuracy of the report, however, do not guarantee its accuracy and will not accept liability for any consequential loss or damage which may arise directly or indirectly from any use of the report.
ASIA STOCK INDEX Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 5 of 6 KSH6 (Kospi March Futures) Exp. Date: 10 Mar. 2016 Strong resistance di 239 Area 234.80 masih diuji Strong support di 223.10 (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 23 Feb 236.55 236.85 234.90 1.95 236.00 236.00 0.25 0.11 123969 22 Feb 234.30 236.40 234.05 2.35 235.75 235.75 0.90 0.38 97359 19 Feb 234.35 235.35 234.15 1.20 234.85 234.85 0.25 0.11 104876 18 Feb 235.70 235.85 234.30 1.55 234.60 234.60 2.10 0.90 116375 17 Feb 231.45 233.70 231.35 2.35 232.50 232.50 0.45 0.19 142352 WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 236.85 234.05 236.85 224.10 240.00 223.10 240.00 223.10 (23/Feb) (22/Feb) (23/Feb) (12/Feb) (04/Jan) (20/Jan) (04/Jan) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION 243.10 High 30/Dec/2015 (reaction high) 240.00 High 04/Jan/2016 237.45 High 05/Jan/2016 236.80 High 06/Jan/2016 234.05 Low 22/Feb/2016 232.00 Key support 229.00 Short-term support 227.03 Low 15/Feb/2016 BUY ---- SELL 236.25 STOP LOSS 237.00 TARGET 234.20 232.50
ASIA STOCK INDEX Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 6 of 6 HSIG6 (Hang Seng February Futures) Exp. Date: 26 Feb. 2016 Pola Ascending triangle dengan trendline support masih efektif Key resistance di 19725 Short-term resistance di 19451 (Research @ErwinRiset) DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE SETTLE CHANGE % CHANGE VOLUME 23 Feb 19531 19557 19312 245 19416 19416 60 0.31 140326 22 Feb 19348 19546 19340 206 19476 19476 144 0.75 126023 19 Feb 19232 19339 19190 149 19332 19332 38 0.20 98363 18 Feb 19385 19451 19262 189 19293 19294 378 2.00 112773 17 Feb 19236 19307 18895 412 18916 18916 225 1.18 126901 WEEKLY FEBRUARY JANUARY 2016 HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW 19557 19312 19715 18217 21857 18530 21857 18217 (23/Feb) (23/Feb) (01/Feb) (12/Feb) (04/Jan) (21/Jan) (04/Jan) (12/Feb) ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION RESISTANCE SUPPORT RECOMMENDATION 20985 Pivot line 20350 Pivot line 20070 Pivot line 19725 Horizontal resistance 19312 Low 23/Feb/2016 18848 Low 16/Feb/2016 18334 Low 15/Feb/2016 18037 Low 12/Feb/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 19570 STOP LOSS 19735 TARGET 19330 19200