z Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Barometer bursa global jatuh pada hari Selasa, tertekan oleh Wall Street setelah data inflasi AS yang solid memperkuat ekspektasi kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed. Namun demikian dolar masih bergerak terbatas sementara minyak berjangka sentuh level tertinggi multi-bulanan. Seorang pembuat kebijakan Fed mengatakan ia akan mendorong kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan Juni atau Juli dan dua lainnya masih melihat hingga tiga kenaikan suku bunga tahun ini, memperbesar peluang terjadinya perubahan dalam kebijakan moneter dengan segera. Data inflasi AS catat kenaikan terbesarnya lebih dari 3 tahun di bulan April, sementara housing starts naik melampaui perkiraan bulan lalu. Laporan CME FedWatch menunjukkan peluang kenaikan suku bunga usai sidang Fed bulan November meningkat menjadi 58% dari 42% di hari Senin. Sterling catat penguatan 0,9% ke $1.4524 yang sebagian dibantu oleh laporan bahwa yang pro Bertahan dalam Uni Eropa unggul 15 poin dari yang pro Keluar jelang referendum keanggotaan Inggris dalam Uni Eropa pada 23 Juni mendatang. Menyusul indikasi kesiapan BOJ untuk melakukan intervensi ke pasar valas, maka data PDB-Q1 Jepang pada hari Rabu akan dicermati pasar. Dihari yang sama (Kamis dini hari) investor juga akan mencermati FOMC minutes untuk memperoleh kejelasan mengenai waktu pelaksanaan kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed. Sementara data pekerjaan Inggris (Rabu) diprediksi mengalami penurunan terkait kehati-hatian investor jelang voting Brexit bulan Juni. Rabu 18 Mei 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 05.45 NZ Producer Prices Inputs Q1 0.3 % -1.2 05.45 NZ PPI Output Q1 0.4 % -0.8 06.50 JP GDP QQ Q1 0.1 % -0.3 06.50 JP GDP QQ Annualised Q1 0.2 % -1.1 08.30 CN China House Prices YY Apr N/A % 4.9 08.30 AU Wage Price Index QQ Q1 0.5 % 0.5 15.30 GB Claimant Count Unemp Chg. Apr 4.3 K 6.7 15.30 GB ILO Unemployment Rate Mar 5.1 % 5.1 16.00 EZ Inflation Final MM Apr 0.0 % 1.2 16.00 EZ Inflation Core MM Apr 0.0 % 1.3 21.30 US EIA Crude Inventories w/e -3.167 M -3.410 01.00 US FOMC Minutes Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia (021) 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 15/02/2016-24/05/2016 (GMT) 375 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 18/05/2016; 1,1311; 1,1325; 1,1307; 1,1310 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 18/05/2016; 1,1354 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 18/05/2016; 1,1339 1.1464 1.1614 Price 1,15 1,14 1,13 1,12 Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 18/05/2016; 38,334 1.0820 1.1142 1.1213 @her1en 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 Pergerakan terbatas Penguatan dapat berlanjut RSI flat (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 18/05/2016; -0,0041 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May 17 1.1315 1.1347 1.1303 44 1.1315 FLAT 1.1315 May 16 1.1315 1.1342 1.1303 39 1.1315 FLAT 1.1315 May 13 1.1375 1.1380 1.1283 97 1.1315 60 1.1375 May 12 1.1425 1.1432 1.1369 63 1.1375 50 1.1425 May 11 1.1375 1.1446 1.1370 76 1.1425 55 1.1370 1.1347 1.1303 1.1614 1.1283 1.1464 1.1218 1.1614 1.0711 (17/May) (16/May) (03/May) (13/May) (12/Apr) (25/Apr) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.1600 Reaction high on hourly chart 1.1528 High May 04 1.1476 High May 06 1.1380 High May 13 1.1254 Low Apr 26 1.1213 Reaction low on daily chart 1.1166 Low Mar 29 1.1055 Reaction low on daily chart BUY 1.1300 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1.1240 1.1370 1.1400
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Waspadai pola symmetrical triangle berpotensi batasi pergerakan Area support di 108.24 masih efektif Target uptick di 110 (Research @ErwinRiset) May 17 109.10 109.64 108.85 79 109.05 10 108.95 May 16 108.60 109.09 108.48 61 108.95 35 108.60 May 13 109.10 109.48 108.52 96 108.60 40 109.00 May 12 108.45 109.39 108.24 115 109.00 55 108.45 May 11 109.20 109.37 108.38 99 108.45 80 109.25 109.64 108.48 109.64 105.55 112.58 106.58 121.68 105.55 (17/May) (16/May) (17/May) (03/May) (01/Apr) (29/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 112.58 High 01/Apr/2016 111.90 Horizontal resistance 110.70 Pivot line (1-H chart) 109.64 High 17/May/2016 108.24 Horizontal support 107.45 Pivot line (1-H chart) 107.00 Low 09/May/2016 106.43 Low 06/May/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 108.75 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 108.00 109.90 110.50
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Area minor trendline support di 1.4380 masih efektif Rebound berpotensi uji area trendline resistance di 1.4630 (Research @ErwinRiset) May 17 1.4445 1.4524 1.4395 129 1.4465 70 1.4395 May 16 1.4355 1.4416 1.4333 83 1.4395 25 1.4370 May 13 1.4445 1.4457 1.4341 116 1.4370 80 1.4450 May 12 1.4435 1.4529 1.4407 122 1.4450 5 1.4445 May 11 1.4450 1.4486 1.4395 91 1.4445 UNCH 1.4445 1.4524 1.4333 1.4769 1.4333 1.4669 1.4007 1.4813 1.3837 (17/May) (16/May) (03/May) (16/May) (29/Apr) (06/Apr) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) ANALYSIS & 1.4769 High 03/May/2016 (Peak) 1.4630 Trendline resistance 1.4577 Pivot line 1.4541 High 06/May/2016 (Reaction high) 1.4380 Minor trendline support 1.4298 Low 21/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) 1.4266 Low 19/Apr/2016 1.4129 Low 18/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 1.4425 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.4350 1.4550 1.4600
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Area resistance di 0.9800 pecah! Reli dekati area trendline resistance di 0.9830 Waspadai RSI dekat zona overbought (69) (Research @ErwinRiset) May 17 0.9780 0.9807 0.9751 56 0.9805 25 0.9780 May 16 0.9755 0.9784 0.9748 36 0.9780 35 0.9745 May 13 0.9710 0.9773 0.9701 72 0.9745 40 0.9705 May 12 0.9715 0.9724 0.9663 61 0.9705 5 0.9710 May 11 0.9755 0.9771 0.9699 72 0.9710 50 0.9760 0.9807 0.9748 0.9807 0.9444 0.9796 0.9498 1.0257 0.9444 (17/May) (16/May) (17/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (12/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) 1.0000 The level of psychology 0.9915 High 16/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) 0.9830 Minor trendline resistance 0.9697 Low 13/May/2016 0.9648 Low 06/May/2016 0.9561 Low 05/May/2016 0.9530 Low 04/May/2016 BUY 0.9780 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 0.9675 0.9850 0.9900
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 04/01/2016-25/05/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 18/05/2016; 0,7437 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 18/05/2016; 0,7533 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 18/05/2016; 0,7322; 0,7332; 0,7317; 0,7322 0.7680 0.7835 0.7765 Price 0,78 0,77 0,76 0.7400 0.7402 0,75 0,74 0.6824 0.6971 0.7105 @her1en 0.7233 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 18/05/2016; 36,125 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 18/05/2016; -0,0303 Value 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 0,73 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 0,68 Pergerakan dapat break pivot line RSI menguat (Research @her1en) May 17 0.7290 0.7366 0.7283 83 0.7330 40 0.7290 May 16 0.7270 0.7308 0.7237 71 0.7290 20 0.7270 May 13 0.7315 0.7325 0.7255 70 0.7270 50 0.7320 May 12 0.7360 0.7379 0.7311 68 0.7320 55 0.7375 May 11 0.7370 0.7402 0.7337 65 0.7375 15 0.7360 0.7366 0.7237 0.7719 0.7237 0.7828 0.7493 0.7828 0.6828 (17/May) (16/May) (03/May) (16/May) (20/Apr) (07/Apr) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7631 Reaction high on daily chart 0.7517 High May 04 0.7478 High May 06 0.7402 Reaction high on daily chart 0.7279 Low May 17 0.7233 Low May 16 0.7198 Reaction low on daily chart 0.7162 Low Mar 02 BUY 0.7295 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7230 0.7365 0.7395
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 28/12/2015-25/05/2016 (GMT) 0.6886 0.6910 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 18/05/2016; 0,6810; 0,6811; 0,6804; 0,6808 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 18/05/2016; 0,6836 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 18/05/2016; 0,6847 0.7054 0.6939 Price 0,7 0,69 0,68 0.6230 0.6346 0.6550 0.6713 @her1en RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 18/05/2016; 45,751 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 18/05/2016; -0,0148 Value 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 0,67 0,66 0,65 0,64 0,63 0,62 Penguatan dapat break area trend channel harian RSI naik (Research @her1en) May 17 0.6785 0.6842 0.6780 62 0.6810 20 0.6790 May 16 0.6770 0.6808 0.6748 60 0.6790 15 0.6775 May 13 0.6820 0.6830 0.6757 73 0.6775 40 0.6815 May 12 0.6815 0.6847 0.6805 42 0.6815 10 0.6825 May 11 0.6800 0.6845 0.6761 84 0.6825 70 0.6755 0.6842 0.6748 0.7053 0.6717 0.7054 0.6760 0.7054 0.6348 (17/May) (16/May) (03/May) (10/May) (19/Apr) (05/Apr) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7053 Reaction high on daily chart 0.7004 Reaction high on hourly chart 0.6939 High May 04 0.6891 High May 06 0.6777 Low May 17 0.6741 Low May 16 0.6667 Reaction low on daily chart 0.6574 Reaction low on daily chart BUY 0.6785 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.6725 0.6855 0.6885
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Area trendline support di 123.00 Rebound masih berpotensi uji area resistance di 124.60 (Research @ErwinRiset) May 17 123.40 124.17 123.26 91 123.40 5 123.35 May 16 122.90 123.49 122.65 84 123.35 45 122.90 May 13 124.05 124.12 122.77 135 122.90 115 124.05 May 12 123.85 124.62 123.70 92 124.05 20 123.85 May 11 124.25 124.39 123.60 79 123.85 40 124.25 124.17 122.65 124.62 121.50 128.16 121.72 132.25 121.50 (17/May) (16/May) (12/May) (06/May) (01/Apr) (18/Apr) (29/Jan) (06/May) ANALYSIS & 126.47 High 28/Apr/2016 (Peak) 126.25 Pivot line 124.64 Pivot line 124.17 High 17/May/2016 122.57 Low 16/May/2016 (Reaction low) 121.87 Low 09/May/2016 121.46 Low 06/May/2016 (Bottom) 119.08 Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) BUY 123.10 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 122.25 124.40 125.00
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Area trendline resistance di 1.2965 berpotensi diuji Target uptick di 1.3015 (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.2923 1.2904 1.2962 1.2834 1.3014 1.2458 1.3217 1.2495 1.4689 1.2458 (16/May) (17/May) (09/May) (03/May) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.3217 High 05/Apr/2016 (Peak) 1.3156 High 08/Apr/2016 1.3070 Trendline resistance 1.3014 Horizontal resistance 1.2768 Low 12/May/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2745 Pivot line 1.2693 Low 04/May/2016 1.2590 Pivot line BUY 1.2840 SELL --- STOP LOSS 1.2760 1.3015 1.3115
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 1282.51 1303.60 16/02/2016-24/05/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs 1.280 1.260 1257.25 1.240 1200 1208.15 1214.45 1237.65 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 18/05/2016; 1.279,3100; 1.281,1100; 1.278,9100; 1.280,3600 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 18/05/2016; 1.267,8511 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 18/05/2016; 1.256,2614 @her1en RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 18/05/2016; 58,620 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 18/05/2016; 14,2800 Value 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Ozs Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 1.220 1.200 1.180 1.160 1.140 Telah break area trend channel harian RSI flat (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) May 17 1275.00 1282.10 1270.23 11.87 1278.50 4.00 1274.50 1270.10 1277.00 May 16 1274.00 1288.20 1271.73 16.47 1274.50 1.50 1273.00 1281.00 1285.75 May 13 1267.00 1276.20 1263.88 12.32 1273.00 6.00 1267.00 1275.15 1265.90 May 12 1278.00 1280.60 1266.26 14.34 1267.00 10.50 1277.50 1268.30 1279.25 May 11 1265.50 1278.80 1265.28 13.52 1277.50 11.00 1266.50 1271.80 1276.85 1288.20 1270.23 1303.60 1258.13 1296.11 1209.55 1303.60 1062.28 (16/May) (17/May) (02/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1302.00 High May 03 1295.70 High May 06 1288.20 High May 16 1282.10 High May 17 1269.10 Low May 17 1263.11 Low May 12 1257.25 Low May 10 1255.71 Reaction low on hourly chart BUY 1278.00 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1270.00 1288.00 1293.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 14.57 Cndl; XAG=; Bid 18/05/2016; 17,2330; 17,2720; 17,2300; 17,2600 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 18/05/2016; 17,0495 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 18/05/2016; 16,6228 14.75 16.14 18.00 17.58 16.83 19/02/2016-23/05/2016 (GMT) @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 18/05/2016; 55,186 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 18/05/2016; -0,2700 Value 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Price Ozs 17,5 17 16,5 16 15,5 15 14,5 14 Potensi naik dapat berlanjut harian RSI flat Help desk high price (17.378) low (17.052) (Research @her1en) May 17 17.11 17.33 17.03 0.30 17.22 0.11 17.11 May 16 17.13 17.37 17.05 0.33 17.11 0.02 17.09 May 13 16.96 17.16 16.81 0.35 17.09 0.13 16.95 May 12 17.37 17.43 16.95 0.48 16.95 0.43 17.39 May 11 17.08 17.56 17.07 0.49 17.39 0.30 17.09 17.37 17.03 17.99 16.81 17.94 14.77 17.99 13.73 (16/May) (17/May) (02/May) (13/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & 17.72 High May 03 17.58 High May 11 17.45 High May 12 17.39 High May 16 17.02 Low May 17 16.83 Low May 13 16.77 Reaction low on daily chart 16.14 Low Apr 19 BUY 17.15 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 16.90 17.45 17.65
Page 12 of 12 CLM6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 May 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLM6 25/02/2016-23/05/2016 (NYC) Cndl; CLM6; Trade Price 18/05/2016; 48,52; 48,54; 48,36; 48,44 WMA; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 55 18/05/2016; 43,54 EMA; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 20 18/05/2016; 45,32 46.78 48.76 Price Bbl 47 46 43.30 45 44 43 39.00 43.03 42 41 40 39 38 37 Break level tertinggi tahunannya (48.76) Jauhi pivot line dibawahnya RSI flat (Research @her1en) 36.57 @her1en RSI; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 18/05/2016; 72,757 Value Bbl Mom; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 14 18/05/2016; 2,41 Value 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 Feb 16 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 36 May 17 47.89 48.71 47.52 1.19 48.58 0.70 47.88 May 16 46.33 47.96 46.20 1.76 47.88 1.54 46.34 May 13 46.39 46.47 45.75 0.72 46.34 0.04 46.38 May 12 45.97 47.00 45.60 1.40 46.38 0.40 45.98 May 11 44.58 46.34 43.95 2.39 45.98 1.47 44.51 48.71 46.20 48.71 43.02 46.76 35.23 48.71 26.04 (17/May) (16/May) (17/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (05/Apr) (17/May) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 52.04 Reaction high on daily chart 50.28 High Nov 05, 2015 49.45 High Nov 09, 2015 48.76 High May 17 47.53 Low May 17 46.15 Low May 16 45.61 Low May 12 43.96 Low May 11 BUY 48.20 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 47.10 49.70 50.20