Riset Saham Harian. Bursa AS terkoreksi. Highlights. Samuel Research 30 Januari 2018

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1 Samuel Research Market Activity Tuesday, 30 Jan 2018 Bursa AS terkoreksi Market Index Index Movement Market Volume Market Value : 6,680.6 : (+0.3%) : 4,050 Mn shrs : 5,327 Bn rupiah Leading Movers UNVR 55, ADRO 2, BTPN 3, TPIA 6, Bursa AS mengalami profit taking setelah penguatan siknifikan akhir-akhir ini. Ada kekhawatiran akan kenaikan yield obligasi, inflasi, dan suku bunga yang berlebihan. Di samping itu, investor tengah menantikan laporan keuangan emiten, Fed meeting, dan non-farm payrolls di minggu ini. Dari pasar komoditas, harga minyak melemah sementara batubara masih terus menguat. Indeks dolar AS meningkat. Lagging Movers TLKM 4, BBRI 3, GGRM 82, PGAS 2, Foreign Net Buy / Sell Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn) BBCA 212 BBRI 193 ADRO 78 PGAS 138 UNVR 25 TLKM 136 PTBA 25 BMRI 91 BUMI 23 BBNI 65 Money Market USD/IDR 13, JIBOR O/N Infl (MoM) Dual Listing Securities TLKM ISAT EIDO IHSG meningkat tipis (0,3%) kemarin dengan foreign net sell Rp 310 miliar di pasar reguler. Rencana pemerintah menyesuaikan formula baru dan menaikkan tarif listrik sejalan dengan kenaikan harga batubara dapat mendorong inflasi dan mempengaruhi daya beli masyarakat. Sejumlah bursa dibuka melemah pagi ini. IHSG berpotensi ikut melemah juga. Highlights WIKA: Komodo Bond resmi tercatat di London WEGE: Raih Rp422.1miliar ANTM: Kinerja operasional ANTM FY 17 PGAS: Pembentukan holding berpotensi batal apabila tidak terbit PP dalam 60 hari BTPN: Berencana merger MAPB: Starbuck s tetap paling ekspansif World Indices DJIA 26, S&P 500 2, Euro Stoxx 3, MSCI World 2, Nikkei 23, Hang Seng 32, Commodities Brent Oil CPO Malay 2, Coal Newc Nickel 13, Tin 22, Page 1 of 7

2 WIKA: Komodo Bond resmi tercatat di London PT Wijaya Karya, Tbk (Persero), (WIKA) resmi menerbitkan obligasi global berdenominasi rupiah (Komodo Bond), yang tercatat di Bursa Efek London (London Stock Exchange). Penerbitan obligasi senilai Rp5.4tn dengan masa tenor 3tahun tersebut dikalim me ngalami 2.5x oversubscribed. (Bisnis Indonesia). WIKA: BUY; 18E PE: 14.9x, PBV: 1.2x. WEGE: Raih Rp422.1miliar PT Wijaya Karya Gedung, Tbk (WEGE) memperoleh tiga kontrak baru senilai total Rp422,1 miliar YTD, dengan target FY18E sebesar Rp7.83tn. Adapun target porsi kontributor kontrak adalah 30% dari pemerintah, 30% BUMN dan sisanya swasta. Secara total perusahaan memiliki nilai OB sebesar Rp16.59tn, terdiri dari target FY18E Rp7.83tn dan carry over kontrak Rp8.76tn. (Bisnis Indonesia). WEGE: Non-Coverage; N/Ax P/E18E dan N/Ax PBV 18E. ANTM: Kinerja operasional ANTM FY 17 ANTM membukukan unaudited penjualan di FY 17 mencapai Rp 12.5 trilliun +38% yoy. ANTM mencatatkan kenaikan produksi feronikel dan volume penjualan sepanjang masa. Produksi feronikel mencapai ton (+7.2% yoy) dan volume penjualan mencapai Tni (+4.4% yoy). untuk bijih nikel produksi mencapai 5.57 Wmt (+240% yoy) dan volume penjulan mencapai 2.8 Wmt (+285% yoy) Sementara untuk emas pendapatan mencapai Rp 7.37 trilliun merupakan kontribusi terbesar pendpatan ANTM (59%). Total produksi emas ANTM mencapai 1,967 kg (63,240 oz) dengan volume penjualan mencapai 13,202 kg (424,454 oz) (+29% yoy). (Company) Comment: Melihat kinerja opersional ANTM yang diatas estimasi SSI, kami estimasikan laporan keuangan ANTM untuk FY 17 akan diatas estimasi kami dan konsensus. ANTM: BUY PGAS: Pembentukan holding berpotensi batal apabila tidak terbit PP dalam 60 hari Sekretaris Perusahaan PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS), Rachmat Hutama menyatakan pengambilalihan 77,8% saham PGAS ke Pertamina dalam pembentukan holding energi, berpotensi dibatalkan apabila tidak terbit Peraturan Pemerintah dalam 60 hari kedepan. (Company). PGAS: BUY; 18E PE: 16.9x, PBV: 1.3x. Page 2 of 7

3 BTPN: Berencana merger Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) yang memiliki 40% saham BTPN berencana menggabungkan BTPN dengan PT Bank Sumitomo Mitsui Indonesia (BSMI). Saham BSMI saat ini dikuasai oleh SMBC. Saat ini BSMI banyak menyalurkan kredit korporasi sementara BTPN lebih banyak bergerak di kredit mikro dan pensiunan. Merger kedua bank itu akan membuat portofolio kredit yang semakin luas dan modal inti menjadi sekitar Rp 25 triliun serta bisa segera naik kelas menjadi BUKU IV setelah mencapai Rp 30 triliun. Hingga saat ini, rencana tersebut belum diajukan ke OJK. (Investor Daily, Bisnis Indonesia). Comment: Kami belum cover saham ini dan belum ada detil terkait rencana merger tersebut. Berdasarkan konsensus, saat ini (sebelum merger) PBV saham BTPN 2018 sebesar 1,0x setelah kenaikan 24,9% kemarin. Fair value berdasarkan PBV rata-rata di 1,1x (sebelum merger) adalah sekitar Rp 3.500, sehingga masih ada upside sekitar 7%. BTPN: Non-Coverage. MAPB: Starbuck s tetap paling ekspansif Dari total rencana ekspansi 70 gerai baru, PT MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk. (MAPB) menargetkan pembukaan gerai Starbucks yang paling banyak, di mana 60 gerai ditargetkan untuk Starbucks, dan sisa gerai baru lainnya untuk Genki Sushi, Pizza Marzano. Sampai dengan 9M17, bisnis F&B menyumbang 71.6% terhadap total penjualan. MAPB menargetkan pertumbuhan penjualan sebesar 20% sampai dengan akhir tahun ini. (Kontan). MAPI: BUY; 18E PE: 25.0x, PBV: 3.2x. Page 3 of 7

4 Stock Rec. JCI Wgt price 1D Chg YTD Chg TP Cons TP SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE Banks (%) (Rp) (%) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 17E 18E 17E 18E 17E 18E BMRI BUY * (0.3) % 11.9% BBCA HOLD % 17.0% BBRI HOLD (1.3) % 17.3% BBNI HOLD (1.0) (4.0) % 14.0% BBTN HOLD % 14.3% BNLI BUY % 4.4% Average % 13.2% Consumer (Staples) ICBP BUY (0.3) % 19.3% INDF BUY % 14.4% KLBF BUY % 18.5% ROTI BUY % 18.3% UNVR HOLD (0.9) % 127.7% SIDO BUY * % 17.1% AISA BUY % 7.2% Average % 31.8% Cigarette HMSP BUY * (0.5) % 32.4% GGRM BUY (2.4) (1.9) % 14.8% Average % 23.6% Healthcare MIKA BUY % 19.4% SILO HOLD (6.3) % 3.7% Average % 11.6% Poultry CPIN HOLD (1.6) % 20.0% JPFA BUY % 12.4% MAIN BUY (4.7) % 16.2% Average % 16.2% Retail MAPI BUY % 12.7% RALS BUY (2.5) (3.8) % 12.7% ACES BUY % 22.4% LPPF BUY (0.9) % 49.8% Average % 24.4% Media MNCN BUY % 19.3% SCMA BUY % 36.3% Average % 27.8% Telco EXCL BUY % 3.6% ISAT BUY % 16.3% TLKM BUY (1.9) (8.3) % 25.9% TOWR BUY (1.0) (3.8) % 20.2% Average % 16.5% Auto and HE ASII BUY % 16.6% UNTR BUY % 14.2% Average % 15.4% Aviation GIAA HOLD (1.3) % 0.3% Page 4 of 7

5 Property BSDE BUY % 8.6% PWON BUY % 19.1% ASRI BUY % 6.7% SMRA HOLD % 3.4% SSIA HOLD % 2.6% CTRA BUY % 9.2% DMAS BUY % 10.8% KIJA BUY % 7.9% Average % 8.5% Construction PTPP BUY (0.3) % 12.6% ADHI BUY (1.3) % 7.9% WSKT BUY % 13.6% WIKA BUY % 8.3% Average % 10.6% Cement INTP SELL (0.2) % 9.6% SMGR HOLD (3.4) % 10.7% SMCB SELL % -7.7% SMBR HOLD (16.3) % 5.2% Average % 4.4% Precast WSBP BUY (0.4) % 13.6% WTON BUY (0.8) % 14.0% Average % 13.8% Oil and Gas PGAS BUY * (5.3) % 7.5% AKRA BUY % 15.2% TPIA HOLD % 16.8% BRPT BUY % 7.6% MEDC BUY (0.8) % 13.8% Average % 12.2% Utilities JSMR BUY (0.4) (10.9) % 14.3% Metal ANTM BUY % 1.5% INCO BUY * % 3.3% TINS BUY % 9.4% Average % 4.7% Coal DOID BUY % 36.7% ITMG BUY * % 20.8% ADRO BUY * % 10.8% PTBA BUY * % 5.2% Average % 18.4% Plantation AALI BUY % 13.8% LSIP BUY (4.6) % 9.3% SIMP HOLD % 5.0% Average % 9.4% Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Note: GIAA, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, BRPT, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD. Note: *: Under Review Page 5 of 7

6 Regional Indices 1D Change Price Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low World (14.71) 2,234 (0.65) (0.01) ,250 1,785 U.S. (S&P) (19.34) 2,854 (0.67) ,873 2,267 U.S. (DOW) (177.23) 26,439 (0.67) ,617 19,785 Europe (4.37) 3,643 (0.12) (0.00) (0.61) 3.97 (0.52) ,709 3,214 Emerging Market (5.09) 1,268 (0.40) , FTSE , (0.57) (0.21) 2.45 (0.21) n/a 7,793 7,094 CAC 40 (7.56) 5,522 (0.14) 0.48 (0.37) ,567 4,734 Dax (15.69) 13,324 (0.12) (0.67) (1.03) ,597 11,480 Indonesia , ,686 5,294 Japan (94.30) 23,535 (0.40) (0.57) (2.44) ,129 18,225 Australia (32.61) 6,043 (0.54) (0.20) 0.85 (0.37) 2.09 (0.37) ,150 5,583 Korea (5.70) 2,592 (0.22) ,607 2,052 Singapore , (0.89) ,612 3,031 Malaysia , ,871 1,668 Hong Kong (187.23) 32,967 (0.56) ,484 22,997 China (35.13) 3,523 (0.99) (1.02) ,587 3,017 Taiwan , (0.09) ,270 9,414 Thailand , (0.08) ,848 1,529 Philipines , ,078 7,146 Monetary Indicators 1D Change Price Points 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low JIBOR Overnight (%) (0.02) (10.23) (6.11) Foreign Reserve (US$bn) n/a n/a Inflation Rate (%) n/a 0.71 n/a (0.07) US Fed Rate (%) Indo Govt Bond Yld (10yr) - % (7.45) 0.05 (17.05) Exchange Rate (per US$) 1D Change Price Currency Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Indonesia (0.40) (0.37) (0.12) (0.10) 13,645 13,145 Japan (0.09) UK (0.00) 1.41 (0.11) (0.59) Euro (0.00) 1.24 (0.11) (0.22) China (0.19) Commodities Indicators 1D Change Price Spot Points 1D 3D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low Oil (0.14) (0.21) (0.14) CPO , (0.08) (10.58) 0.64 (17.95) 3, , Rubber (0.34) (1.00) 1.50 (5.17) 1.50 (36.48) 1, Coal Iron Ore (0.86) (11.58) Tin , , , Nickel , , , Copper , (0.91) 0.24 (2.24) 3.73 (2.24) , , Gold (3.00) 1, (0.22) (1.88) , , Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg Page 6 of 7

7 Research Team Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking, Consumer Ahmad Mikail Economist Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Arandi Ariantara Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property Cement, Telecommunication, Toll Road, Oil and Gas Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation Nadya Swastika Research Associate Private Wealth Management Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales fachruly.fiater@samuel.co.id Equity Sales Team Kelvin Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id Online Trading Sales Team Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading nugroho.nuswantoro@samuel.co.id Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id Aben Epapras Marketing aben.epapras@samuel.co.id DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The v iews expressed in this research accurately ref lect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or v iews in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is f or information only and f or the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made avai lable to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable f or all investors. Moreover, although the inf ormation contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserv ed by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia Page 7 of 7