EAKIR RAIO AG EFIIE UTUK RATA-RATA OULAI ADA AMLIG AAK EDERHAA DEGA MEGGUAKA KUARTIL urt * Arsm Ad Frdus Mssw rogrm Mtemt Dose Jurus Mtemt Fults Mtemt d Ilmu egetu Alm Uversts Ru Kmus wd ebru 89 Idoes *surt@ur.c.d ATRAT Ts rtcle dscusses te tree rto estmtors or oulto me smle rdom smlg b usg te ulr vrble o te qurtles roosed b ubrm d Kumrd. Tese tree dscussed estmtors re bsed estmtors. Te me squre errors o te dscussed estmtors re comred to obt te most ecet estmtor. Te comrso sows tt te rto estmtor b usg ter-qurtle rge s te most ecet estmtor t te oter two estmtors. A umercl emle s gve to el te dscussed roblem. Kewords: rto estmtor smle rdom smlg qurtle bs d me squre error ATRAK Artel membs tg esr rso utu rt-rt ouls d smlg c seder meggu urtl g dju ole ubrm d Kumrd. Ketg esr g dbs meru esr bs. eljut me squre error dr msg-msg esr tersebut dbdg utu memerole esr g lg ese. erbdg meuju bw esr rso deg meggu jgu tr urtl lg ese dr du esr rso l. ebu coto umer dsj utu mejels msl g ddsus. Kt uc: esr rso smlg c seder urtl bs d me squre error. EDAHULUA l stu metode g dgu utu mesr rt-rt ouls d smlg c seder dl metode rso. Metode bertuju utu megt
etelt esr deg megmbl mt ubug tr d dm dl ut dr ouls berrter d dl ut dr ouls berrter. Vrbel meru sutu vrbel eduug g berolers ost deg vrbel d vrbel tel dtelt sebelum segg vrbel dt dgu sebg vrbel btu utu mesr vrbel []. etu umum esr rso smlg c seder utu rt-rt ouls dr vrbel g dtelt drumus sebg R R deg dl rt-rt smel dr ouls dl rt-rt smel dr ouls d dl rt-rt ouls. Dlm rtel dbs tg mods esr rso utu rt-rt ouls d smlg c seder deg meggu urtl g dju ole ubrm d Kumrd [4] tu deg r dl jgu tr urtl r r d 4 d dl jgu sem tr urtl d dl rt urtl. Ketg mods esr rso utu rt-rt ouls tersebut meru esr bs emud dtetu Me qure Error ME. erdsr de dr ubrm d Kumrd [4] euls membdg ME dr msg-msg esr utu memerole esr rso g ese. esr g meml l ME terecl meru esr g ese.. AMLIG AAK EDERHAA mlg c seder dl sebu metode g dgu utu megmbl ut smel dr ut ouls segg set ut ouls meml esemt g sm utu dl mejd ut smel. Dlm l egmbl smel dlu t egembl gr rterst ut-ut leb urt []. d egmbl smel t egembl robblts terl dr ouls terl mejd ut smel d egmbl ertm dl robblts d egmbl edu dl sm robblts d
egmbl e- tu segg elug seluru ut-ut tertetu g terl dlm egmbl dl. Teorem. [:. 7] Abl smel beruur dmbl dr ouls beruur g berrter deg smlg c seder m vrs rt-rt smel g dots deg V dl E V deg dl rs er smel d dl vrs d ouls berrter. ut: ut dr teorem dt dlt d []. Utu meetu ME dr esr dlm betu du vrbel dgu sutu edet deg meggu deret Tlor du vrbel. Deret Tlor utu du vrbel [:. 47] Msl dl sutu ugs du vrbel d... '' ' dl otu d I d d d I utu I. J I m...!!! 5 deg < θ <. Deg memsl d d megb gt-gt g leb besr dr stu m dr ersm 5 derole l edet utu mecr ME tu. 6
4. IA DA ME EAKIR RAIO UTUK RATA-RATA OULAI ADA AMLIG AAK EDERHAA s d ME esr rso utu rt-rt ouls d smlg c seder dr msg-msg esr sebg berut. s d ME dr ersm derole R ME R deg dl oese vrs dl oese vrs ouls d dl oese vrs ouls. s d ME dr ersm derole ME deg r. s d ME dr ersm derole ME deg d. s d ME dr ersm 4 derole ME deg. eljut dtetu esr rso g ese dtr e tg esr rso g dju tu deg membdg ME dr esr d.
. erbdg ME deg ME derole ME < ME j d R. R 7. erbdg ME deg ME derole ME < ME j d. 8. erbdg ME deg ME derole ME < ME j. 9 4. erbdg ME deg ME derole ME < ME j. 4. OTOH oto meru dt jg d bert bru dr r []. Dt tersebut dmbl secr c seder dr wdu LTA Koto jg. Dt jg d bert bru dber d Tbel. Tbel. Dt jg d bert bru wdu LTA Koto jg o jg ert I o jg I ert I o jg I ert I 8 6 6 59 465 65 49 9 48 6 48 4 895 4 49 6 5 86 4 44 44 57 6 4 8 5 6 48 4 6 584 6 6 64 5 5 6 554 64 65 7 68 488 6 7 5 65 5 76 8 69 5 7 7 59 66 7 5 9 7 6 8 7 67 67 8 65 7 679 9 7 66 68 85 66 5
7 75 4 7 64 69 87 65 78 7 4 8 75 7 9 96 8 4 8 68 7 8 4 85 7 4 85 86 7 4 6 5 95 7 44 85 7 7 6 5 5 45 86 8 74 48 95 7 4 4856 46 98 8 75 47 8 95 47 95 76 5 49 9 48 599 48 4 85 77 5 5 49 47 78 78 44 6 6 5 4 9 79 45 5 7 5 4 85 8 448 96 5 589 5 4 78 8 45 4 5 69 5 44 9 8 485 5 5 87 54 44 85 8 49 5 6 7 56 55 49 4 84 49 4 7 79 9 56 8 65 85 56 68 8 8 6 57 9 84 Totl 589 6878 9 5 5 58 96 umber: r []. Deg meggu dt d Tbel dtetu esr rso g ese utu mesr rt-rt jg bru deg meggu srt esr leb ese g derole sebelum. Hl secr umum dt dtuju deg megtug ME dr msg msg esr g dju. ebg orms tmb utu mesr rt-rt jg bru dgu bert bru. Utu megtug ME dr msg-msg esr terleb dulu dtetu l g dbutu. Iorms g derole dr dt jg d bert bru deg meggu Mcrosot Ecel d Tbel. Tbel. l-l g derole berdsr dt jg d bert bru 85 549 889 65759 554 486 85 7886 r 7946 4666 d 97 5587 457 6
Deg mesubsttus l-l g derole d Tbel e ersm 7 8 9 d m derole ME < ME j 97 > -747445 R ME < ME j 97 < 96787596 ME < ME j 457 < 96787596 v ME < ME j 457 < 549. eljut l ME dr msg-msg esr dber d Tbel. Tbel. l ME dr msg-msg esr o esr ME R 9945 4756 9 4 9845 erdsr Tbel dt dlt bw esr rso meml l ME g terecl deg srt bw ods leb ese dt deu. 5. KEIMULA Dr embs d ts dt dsmul bw esr rso deg meggu jgu tr urtl meru esr g lg ese dr du esr rso l j srt leb ese tereu. DAFTAR UTAKA [] ocr W. G. 99. Te er mel Eds etg. Terj. Dr mlg Tecques ole Ruds & E.R Osm. UI ress Jrt. [] lls G. M. &. J. Tlor. 97. Teor d Alctos o umercl Alss. ecod Edto. Acdemc ress ew or. [] r. 7. Ase olog Rerodus I ru Hml mcroledot.v d Wdu LTA oto jg. rs Jurus Mjeme umber D err. FAERIKA Uversts Ru ebru. [4] ubrm J. & G. Kumrd.. Moded Rto Estmtor or oulto Me Usg Fucto o urtles o Aulr Vrble. org Itertol Jourl o Idustrl Egeerg d Mgemet cece. : 9-. 7