z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK USD melejit ke level tertinggi 13-1/2 tahun dan indeks saham global terapresiasi pada hari Kamis setelah komentar dari Kepala Fed Janet Yellen mendukung peluang kenaikan suku bunga bulan depan. Juga yang mendukung penguatan USD adalah data ekonomi AS yang memicu ekspektasi percepatan ekspansi ekonomi AS di kuartal keempat. Indeks dolar melanjutkan penguatannya di sesi sore AS usai komentar Yellen dan terakhir tercatat menguat 0,5%. Keperkasaan USD telah menekan emas, yang terkoreksi ke level terendah 5-1/2 bulan di $1210.73. Demikian juga dengan harga minyak yang juga melemah tipis. Bursa AS, yang reli pekan lalu usai kemenangan Donald Trump sebagai presiden AS, juga menguat dipimpin oleh naiknya saham keuangan. Data ekonomi AS semalam menunjukkan CPI catat kenaikan terbesar dalam 6 bulan di periode Oktober, sementara housing starts naik ke level tertinggi 9 tahun dan jobless claims turun ke level terendah sejak November 1973. Jumat 18 November 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 14:00 DE Producer Prices MM Oct 0.1 % -0.2 14:00 DE Producer Prices YY Oct -0.9 % -1.4 15:00 EZ ECB s Draghi Speaks at Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt 16:00 EZ Current Account NSA, EUR Sep N/A b 23.6 16:00 EZ Current Account SA, EUR Sep N/A b 29.7 16:00 EZ Net Investment Flow, EUR Sep N/A b 79.8 20:30 CA CPI Inflation MM Oct 0.2 % 0.1 20:30 CA CPI Inflation YY Oct 1.5 % 1.3 20:30 CA CPI BoC Core YY Oct 1.8 % 1.8 20:30 CA CPI BoC Core MM Oct 0.3 % 0.2 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/USD Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Koreksi breakout area lowerline of bearish channel, hit day low di 1.0616 Koreksi hadapi support berikutnya di 1.0538 Waspadai RSI sudah oversold Nov 17 1.0705 1.0745 1.0619 126 1.0625 65 1.0690 Nov 16 1.0725 1.0759 1.0667 92 1.0690 40 1.0730 Nov 15 1.0745 1.0816 1.0714 102 1.0730 10 1.0740 Nov 14 1.0830 1.0849 1.0709 140 1.0740 110 1.0850 Nov 11 1.0890 1.0923 1.0831 92 1.0850 40 1.0890 1.0849 1.0619 1.1299 1.0619 1.1243 1.0851 1.1614 1.0619 (14/Nov) (17/Nov) (09/Nov) (17/Nov) (03/Oct) (25/Oct) (03/May) (17/Nov) 1.1109 Reaction high (1-H chart) 1.0954 High 10/Nov/2016 1.0849 High 14/Nov/2016 1.0745 High 17/Nov/2016 1.0538 Low 03/Dec/2015 (Bottom) 1.0529 Low 14/Apr/2015 1.0519 Low 13/Apr/2015 (Bottom) 1.0456 Low 16/Mar/2015 BUY ----- SELL 1.0660 STOP LOSS 1.0750 1.0585 1.0530
Page 3 of 12 USD/JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Rebound berkembang hadapi resistance di sekitar 110.38 (50% Fibo. Retracement of wave 121.68 99.08) Waspadai RSI sudah overbought Short-term support di sekitar 107.70 107.00 Nov 17 108.85 110.02 108.56 146 109.95 85 109.10 Nov 16 109.00 109.75 108.81 94 109.10 5 109.15 Nov 15 108.20 109.33 107.78 155 109.15 75 108.40 Nov 14 106.85 108.54 106.56 198 108.40 165 106.75 Nov 11 106.75 106.93 106.04 89 106.75 10 106.85 110.02 106.56 110.02 101.20 105.53 101.22 121.68 99.11 (17/Nov) (14/Nov) (17/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) 112.58 High 01/Apr/2016 111.90 High 25/Apr/2016 (Peak) 113.43 High 30/May/2016 (Peak) 110.81 High 01/Jun/2016 108.51 Low 17/Nov/2016 107.74 Low 15/Nov/2016 106.51 Low 14/Nov/2016 105.90 Pivot line (1-H chart) BUY 109.30 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 108.40 110.05 110.50
Page 4 of 12 GBP/USD Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Koreksi masih uji area lowerline of bullish channel di sekitar 1.24 Area support krusial di sekitar 1.2325 Nov 17 1.2440 1.2505 1.2410 95 1.2425 10 1.2435 Nov 16 1.2450 1.2502 1.2412 90 1.2435 20 1.2455 Nov 15 1.2515 1.2528 1.2382 146 1.2455 40 1.2495 Nov 14 1.2570 1.2612 1.2444 168 1.2495 100 1.2595 Nov 11 1.2550 1.2673 1.2527 146 1.2595 50 1.2545 1.2612 1.2382 1.2673 1.2207 1.2946 1.1885 1.5018 1.1885 (14/Nov) (15/Nov) (11/Nov) (01/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (24/Jun) (07/Oct) 1.2860 High 04/Oct/2016 1.2771 High 05/Oct/2016 1.2673 High 11/Nov/2016 1.2528 High 15/Nov/2016 1.2349 Low 09/Nov/2016(Reaction low) 1.2293 Low 03/Nov/2016 1.2218 Low 02/Nov/2016 1.2141 Low 31/Oct/2016 BUY ---- SELL 1.2470 STOP LOSS 1.2540 1.2385 1.2320
Page 5 of 12 USD/CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Reli berlanjut dekati peak level di 1.0094 Waspadai RSI sudah overbought Support krusial di sekitar 0.9955 Nov 17 1.0010 1.0077 0.9992 85 1.0070 45 1.0025 Nov 16 1.0020 1.0057 0.9984 73 1.0025 15 1.0010 Nov 15 0.9970 1.0024 0.9929 95 1.0010 35 0.9975 Nov 14 0.9890 1.0001 0.9881 120 0.9975 95 0.9880 Nov 11 0.9875 0.9895 0.9831 64 0.9880 10 0.9870 1.0077 0.9881 1.0077 0.9551 0.9998 0.9697 1.0257 0.9444 (17/Nov) (14/Nov) (17/Nov) (09/Nov) (25/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (03/May) 1.0257 High 29/Jan/2016 (Peak) 1.0226 High 02/Feb/2016 1.0197 High 03/Feb/2016 1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016 0.9989 Low 17/Nov/2016 0.9868 Low 14/Nov/2016 0.9816 Low 10/Nov/2016 0.9691 Pivot line BUY 1.0040 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 0.9960 1.0110 1.0160
Page 6 of 12 AUD/USD Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Koreksi berlanjut uji area support di 0.7400 Koreksi hadapi support di 0.7330 (50% Fibo. Retracement of wave 0.6824-0.7835) Nov 17 0.7490 0.7502 0.7397 105 0.7415 60 0.7475 Nov 16 0.7555 0.7571 0.7461 110 0.7475 85 0.7560 Nov 15 0.7570 0.7580 0.7512 68 0.7560 15 0.7545 Nov 14 0.7550 0.7565 0.7525 40 0.7545 5 0.7540 Nov 11 0.7610 0.7629 0.7526 103 0.7540 65 0.7605 0.7580 0.7397 0.7777 0.7397 0.7734 0.7508 0.7828 0.6828 (15/Nov) (17/Nov) (08/Nov) (17/Nov) (20/Oct) (13/Oct) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) 0.7742 High 10/Nov/2016 0.7629 High 11/Nov/2016 0.7580 High 15/Nov/2016 0.7502 High 17/Nov/2016 0.7369 Low 30/Jun/2016 0.7302 Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 0.7283 Low 16/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 0.7199 Low 02/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) BUY ----- SELL 0.7440 STOP LOSS 0.7525 0.7375 0.7325
Page 7 of 12 NZD/USD Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Koreksi uji tembus area horizontal support 0.7030, hit day low di 0.7009 Key support di sekitar 0.6950 Nov 17 0.7090 0.7110 0.7014 96 0.7030 40 0.7070 Nov 16 0.7095 0.7113 0.7036 77 0.7070 30 0.7100 Nov 15 0.7130 0.7143 0.7071 72 0.7100 UNCH 0.7100 Nov 14 0.7100 0.7140 0.7070 70 0.7100 20 0.7120 Nov 11 0.7215 0.7228 0.7110 118 0.7120 85 0.7205 0.7143 0.7014 0.7402 0.7014 0.7310 0.7036 0.7485 0.6348 (15/Nov) (17/Nov) (08/Nov) (17/Nov) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (07/Sep) (20/Jan) 0.7392 High 09/Nov/2016 0.7307 High 10/Nov/2016 0.7228 High 11/Nov/2016 0.7140 High 14/Nov/2016 0.6982 Low 26/Jul/2016 0.6949 Low 21/Jul/2016 (Bottom) 0.6891 Low 07/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) 0.6798 Low 03/Jun/2016 BUY ----- SELL 0.7040 STOP LOSS 0.7150 0.6980 0.6930
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Area support krusial di sekitar 116.35 masih efektif Resistance berikutnya di sekitar 118.45 Nov 17 116.50 117.21 116.27 94 116.85 25 116.60 Nov 16 116.95 117.48 116.52 96 116.60 55 117.15 Nov 15 116.30 117.21 116.09 112 117.15 70 116.45 Nov 14 115.65 116.48 115.56 92 116.45 65 115.80 Nov 11 116.25 116.49 115.31 118 115.80 55 116.35 117.48 115.56 117.48 113.75 116.28 112.61 132.25 109.60 (16/Nov) (14/Nov) (16/Nov) (09/Nov) (06/Oct) (21/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) 122.68 High 07/Jun/2016 (Peak) 121.98 High 24/Jun/2016 (Peak) 118.45 High 21/Jul/2016 (Peak) 117.48 High 16/Nov/2016 116.04 Low 15/Nov/2016 115.39 Low 14/Nov/2016 114.93 Low 10/Nov/2016 113.70 Low 09/Nov/2016 BUY 116.60 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 115.90 117.50 118.00
Page 9 of 12 USD/CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Rebound berkembang setelah mampu bertahan di atas area 1.3400 Rebound hadapi area resistance di sekitar 1.3575 Pola bullish trend channel dukung sinyal uptrend WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.3522 1.3525 1.3588 1.3397 1.3588 1.3260 1.3431 1.3002 1.4689 1.2458 (14/Nov) (17/Nov) (14/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (19/Oct) (20/Jan) (03/May) 1.3910 High 16/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3859 High 24/Feb/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3734 High 25/Feb/2016 1.3588 High 14/Nov/2016 1.3381 Low 10/Nov/2016 1.3220 Low 21/Oct/2016 1.3106 Low 20/Oct/2016 1.3002 Low 19/Oct/2016 (Bottom) BUY 1.3440 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 1.3350 1.3535 1.3585
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/USD) Area support di sekitar 1211 sedang diuji Target downtick di 1200 1170 Waspadai RSI sudah oversold AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Nov 17 1227.00 1231.41 1211.27 20.14 1217.00 8.00 1225.00 1232.00 1226.75 Nov 16 1227.00 1233.06 1221.63 11.43 1225.00 3.00 1228.00 1225.70 1229.20 Nov 15 1223.50 1231.43 1219.29 12.14 1228.00 7.00 1221.00 1228.90 1226.95 Nov 14 1230.00 1231.16 1211.71 19.45 1221.00 3.00 1224.00 1222.60 1213.60 Nov 11 1261.00 1265.40 1219.50 45.90 1224.00 35.50 1259.50 1255.65 1236.45 1233.06 1211.27 1337.40 1211.27 1319.60 1241.72 1374.91 1062.28 (16/Nov) (17/Nov) (09/Nov) (17/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) 1292.14 High 10/Nov/2016 1265.40 High 11/Nov/2016 1237.22 Reaction high (1-H chart) 1233.06 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 1199.60 Low 30/May/2016 (Bottom) 1180.90 Low 10/Feb/2016 1163.70 Low 08/Feb/2016 1144.96 Low 05/Feb/2016 BUY ----- SELL 1220.00 STOP LOSS 1235.00 1200.00 1170.00
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/USD) Koreksi tembus area 17.00, hit day low di 16.55 Koreksi hadapi area support di 16.46 (61.8% Fibo. Retracement of wave 13.60 21.10) Waspadai RSI di zona oversold Nov 17 16.93 17.04 16.53 0.51 16.64 0.30 16.94 Nov 16 17.01 17.19 16.82 0.37 16.94 0.09 17.03 Nov 15 16.87 17.09 16.77 0.32 17.03 0.16 16.87 Nov 14 17.42 17.45 16.59 0.86 16.87 0.43 17.30 Nov 11 18.55 18.79 17.15 1.64 17.30 1.23 18.537 17.45 16.53 18.95 16.53 19.28 17.08 21.10 13.73 (14/Nov) (17/Nov) (09/Nov) (17/Nov) (03/Oct) (06/Oct) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) 18.99 High 09/Nov/2016 (Peak) 18.83 High 11/Nov/2016 17.50 High 14/Nov/2016 17.23 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 16.18 Low 07/Jun/2016 (Reaction low) 15.77 Low 01/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 15.34 Low 11/Apr/2016 14.75 Low 01/Apr/2016 (Bottom) BUY ----- SELL 16.80 STOP LOSS 17.35 16.40 16.15
Page 12 of 12 CLZ6/USD (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Nov. 2016 - Reuters) Reversal terjadi setelah reli gagal tembus 47.00 Koreksi hadapi area support di sekitar 43.00 Nov 17 45.35 46.55 44.86 1.69 44.91 0.41 45.32 Nov 16 45.77 46.39 45.03 1.36 45.32 0.43 45.75 Nov 15 43.73 46.07 43.54 2.53 45.75 2.07 43.68 Nov 14 43.16 43.79 42.19 1.60 43.68 0.59 43.09 Nov 11 44.35 44.61 43.04 1.57 43.09 1.18 44.27 46.55 42.19 47.33 42.19 52.20 46.62 51.65 26.04 (17/Nov) (14/Nov) (01/Nov) (14/Nov) (19/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) 48.74 High 31/Oct/2016 47.35 High 01/Nov/2016 46.58 High 17/Nov/2016 (Reaction high) 46.12 Reaction high (1-H chart) 44.38 Reaction low (1-H chart) 43.55 Low 15/Nov/2016 42.20 Low 14/Sep/2016 41.10 Low 11/Aug/2016 (Bottom) BUY ----- SELL 45.30 STOP LOSS 46.25 44.25 43.75