WISE WISE PM-MODUL 010 WISE PM-MODUL 010. RISK MANAGEMENT AT BUILDING PROJECT Presented on CPD Workshop Sept /16/2016 PM-MODUL 010

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1 RISK MANAGEMENT AT BUILDING PROJECT Presented on CPD Workshop Sept 2016 By Ir. Andi Taufan Marimba, MM. MBA. IPM. MPM Tujuan Pembelajaran & Daftar Isi Section No. Slide Name Tujuan Pembelajaran Peserta dapat mengerti definisi dan Jenis dari Risiko, dan Bagaimana Mengatasinya 1. Definisi Resiko 2. Dimensi Risiko 3. Manajemen Risiko Pada PMBOK 4. Aplikasi Manajemen Resiko 2016 NOTE-01 1

2 DEFINISI RESIKO: KEJADIAN DI MASA DEPAN YANG BELUM PASTI TUJUAN RUANG LINGKUP BIAYA WAKTU KUALITAS 2016 NOTE-02 DEFINISI RESIKO: KEJADIAN DI MASA DEPAN YANG BELUM PASTI + PELUANG ANCAMAN NOTE-03 2

3 KESADARAN AKAN RESIKO TIDAK KALAU KALAU TIDAK KALAU TIDAK KALAU TIDAK 2016 NOTE-04 DIMENSI RESIKO IMPAK RESIKO KEJADIAN PROBABILITAS 2016 NOTE-05 3

4 PMBOK 2016 NOTE-06 RISK MANAGEMENT STEPS IN PMBOK Risk Management 1. Merencanakan Manajemen Risiko 2. Mengidentifikasi Risiko 3. Melakukan Analisis Kualitatif Risiko 4. Melakukan Analisis Kuantitatif Risiko 5. Merencanakan Tindakan Risiko Memantau dan Mengendalikan Risiko Planning Process Group Monitoring & Controlling Process Group 2016 NOTE-07 4

5 RISK MANAGEMENT STEPS Plan Risk Management Identify Risk Analyse Risk Plan Risk Response Monitor and Control Risk 2016 NOTE-08 RISK MANAGEMENT STEPS Plan Risk Management Identify Risk Analyse Risk Plan Risk Response Monitor & Control Risk Terms & Definitions Brainstorming Qualitative Analysis Negative Risk Roles & Responsibilities Ishikawa Diagram Quantitative Analysis Positive Risk Tools & Templates Flow Diagram SWOT Diagram 2016 NOTE-09 5

6 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: PROBABILITY AND IMPACT MATRIX Probabilty Low Impact/High Probabilty Low Impact/Low Probabilty High Impact/High Probabilty High Impact/Low Probabilty Impact 2016 NOTE-10 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: PROBABILITY AND IMPACT MATRIX Probabilty HIGH MEDIUM LOW Impact 2016 NOTE-11 6

7 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: BRAIN STORMING Identifial Risks: Hjfdhsgk Hjdhsgk Hjdsgk Hjfdhgk KjaJVhfdo Hjfdhsgk KjaJVhfdo Hjfsgk KjaJVdo KjVhfdo Hjfdhsgkj KJVhfdo KjaJVhfdo Khfdo KjaJVhfdo KjaJfdo Kjafdip Kjado 2016 NOTE-12 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: BRAIN STORMING Identifial Risks: KjaJVhfdo Hjdhsgk Hjdsgk Hjfdhsgk Hjfdhgk Hjfdhsgk KjaJVhfdo Hjfsgk KjaJVdo KjVhfdo Hjfdhsgkj KJVhfdo Khfdo KjaJVhfdo KjaJfdo 1 1 KjaJVhfdo Kjafdip Kjado 2016 NOTE-13 7

8 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: ISHIKAWA DIAGRAM 2016 NOTE-14 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: FLOW DIAGRAM 2016 NOTE-15 8

9 PLAN RISK MANAGEMENT: SWOT DIAGRAM 2016 NOTE-16 ANALYSE RISK Qualitative Analysis Quantitative Analysis Quick & Easy to Perform Detailed & Time Consuming Subjective Analytic TOOLS Probability & Impact Analysis EMV Analysis Monte Carlo Analysis 2016 Decision Tree NOTE-17 9

10 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: 1- Rank the severity of consequences Category Personnel Illness Consequences Injury Equipment Loss ( ) Down Time Assets Loss Environmental Effect/Impact I Catastrophic Death > 1M > 4 months Long-term (5 years or greater) or requiring > 1 M to correct and/or in penalties II Critical III Marginal Several injury or severe occupational illness Minor injury or minor occupational illness 250K to 1M 1K to 250K 2 weeks to 4 months 1 day to 2 weeks Values as for equipment loss Medium-term(1-5 yrs) or requiring 250K- 1M to correct and/or in penalties Short-term(<1 yr) or requiring 1K- 250K to correct and/or in penalties IV Negligible No injury or illness <1K <1day Damage readily repaired or requiring < 1K to correct and/or in penalties Courtesy to BVI 2016 NOTE-18 Level F E D C B QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS 2- Rank the probability of occurrence Descriptive Word Frequent Probable Occasional Remote Improbable Definition Likely to occur repeatedly in system life cycle Likely to occur several times in system life cycle Likely to occur sometimes in system life cycle Not likely to occur in system life cycle, but possible So unlikely it can be assumed occurrence may not be experimented A Courtesy to BVI Impossible Physically impossible to occur 2016 NOTE-19 10

11 QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS: EXPECTED MONETARY VALUE (EMV) ANALYSIS BUILD NEW BUILDING Rp. 20 M STRONG DEMAND Rp. 30 M UPGRADE OR RENOVATE? WEAK DEMAND Rp. 15 M RENOVATE BUIDING Rp. 10 M STRONG DEMAND Rp. 20 M WEAK DEMAND Rp. 8M 2016 NOTE-20 PLAN RISK RESPONSE Negative Risk or Threat Positive Risk or Opportunities Avoid Exploit Mitigate Exchange Transfer Accept Accept Share Share 2016 NOTE-21 11

12 RISK IMPACT TO SCHEDULE Courtesy to theepm 2016 NOTE-22 RISK IMPACT TO SCHEDULE Critical Path 5 F G A B C D I 20 H 10 Courtesy to theepm 2016 NOTE-23 12

13 RISK IMPACT TO SCHEDULE 100 d Task duration (d) 95 d 135 d RANGE of Duration Courtesy to theepm 2016 NOTE-24 RISK IMPACT TO SCHEDULE Courtesy to theepm 2016 NOTE-25 13

14 RISK IMPACT TO SCHEDULE Courtesy to theepm 2016 NOTE-26 RISK IMPACT TO SCHEDULE Current Practice Schedule Forecast Mostly the Actual Schedule Reducing Risks Reducing Uncertainty Courtesy to theepm 2016 NOTE-27 14

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