MANAJEMEN (RISK MANAGEMENT)

Ukuran: px

Mulai penontonan dengan halaman:

Download "MANAJEMEN (RISK MANAGEMENT)"

Sri Santoso
8 tahun lalu
Tontonan:

1 MANAJEMEN RESIKO (RISK MANAGEMENT)

2 D E F I N I S I Resiko: Ukuran probability dan konsekwensi tidak tercapainya tujuan proyek yang telah ditentukan: could be anything Tidak mudah untuk diketahui mengingat probability dan konsekwensi kejadian umumnya sulit diukur memerlukan pendugaan statistik Komponen resiko: Probability kejadian Impact dari kejadian

3 D E F I N I S I Resiko = f(probability, impact) ity Tinggi Prob abil Rendah Resiko Kecil Resiko Sedang Resiko Tinggi Event Kecil I m p a c t Besar

4 D E F I N I S I Resiko disebabkan oleh ketidak tahuan akan kejadian di masa yang akan datang opportunity dan risk Elemen lain dari resiko adalah penyebab (bahaya) dan kehati-hatian hatian (waspada): Resiko = f(hazard, safeguard)

5 D E F I N I S I Risk averter (avoider): menyukai hasil (outcome) t yang pasti untuk dapat menerima resiko Risk neutral: menyukai mengambil tindakan berdasarkan keadaan (expectedd value) ) Risk seeker: menyukai hasil y (outcome) yang tidak pasti dan berani mengambil resiko

6 KETIDAKPASTIAN RESIKO Decision making under certainty Ada pilihan yang dominan Decision making under risk Pilihan terbaik didasarkan pada nilai harapan (expected value) yang terbesar Decision making under uncertainty Maximax: Memaksimumkan profit Maximin: Meminimumkan kerugian Minimax: Meminimumkan regret Laplace: Transform uncertainty to risk

7 DEFINISI MANAJEMEN RESIKO Adalah tindakan atau praktek k untuk mengatasi resiko, meliputi: Perencanaan resiko Penilaian (assessing) resiko yang mencakup identifikasi dan analisis Penanganan resiko Pemantauan resiko

8 PERENCANAAN RESIKO (RISK PLANNING) This is the process of developing and documenting an organized, comprehensive, and interactive strategy and methods for identifying and analyzing risk issues, developing risk handling plans, and monitoring how risk have changed.

9 PENILAIAN RESIKO (RISK ASSESSMENT) This process involves identifying and analyzing program area and critical technical process risks to increase the likelihood of meeting cost, performance, and schedule objective Risk identification: examining the program areas and each critical technical process to identify and document the associated risk Risk analysis: examining i each identified d risk issue to estimate the likelihood and predict the impact of the project

10 PENANGANAN RESIKO (RISK HANDLING) This is the process that identifies, evaluates, selects, and implements one or more strategies in order to set risk at acceptance levels given program constraints and objectives: what should be done, when it should be accomplished, who is responsible, associated cost and schedule

11 PEMANTAUAN RESIKO (RISK MONITORING) This is the process that systematically tracks and evaluates the performance of risk handling actions against established metrics throughout the acquisition process and provides inputs to updating risk handling strategies as appropriate.

12 Analisa Resiko (risk analysis) Comparison with similar il systems Relevant lessons-learned studies Experience Result from tests and prototype development Data from engineering ing or other models Specialist and expert judgment Analysis s of plans and related documents Modeling and simulation Sensitivity analysis of alternatives

13 Ketergantungan antar Resiko (risk interdependencies) Action Possible Benefit Risk Work overtime Schedule More mistakes; higher compression cost and longer schedule Add resources Schedule compression Higher cost and learning curve shift Parallel work Reduce scope Hire low-cost resources Schedule compression Schedule compression and lower cost Lower cost Rework and higher cost Unhappy customer and no follow-on work More mistake and longer time period Outsource Lower cost and Contractor possesses critical work schedule compression critical knowledge at your expense

14 Developing Contingency Plan Risk avoidance; Risk prevention: foolproofing Risk Mitigation or Reduction: Placing air bags in cars Risk Transfer: Risk prevention through insurance

dokumen-dokumen yang mirip

Keputusan Dalam Ketidakpastian dan Resiko

Keputusan Dalam Ketidakpastian dan Resiko Suasana pengambilan keputusan : dalam pasti (certainty), dalam keadaan resiko (risk), dalam ketidakpastian (uncertainty), dalam suasana konflik (conflict). Analisis