Target 5, ,443.73

Transkripsi

1 Selasa, 13 Desember 2016 Target 5, , Beberapa berita ekonomi di pekan kemarin diantaranya: 1) Kementerian ESDM mengeluarkan Peraturan Menteri (Permen) No.40 tahun 2016 tentang harga gas untuk industri tertentu. Adapun mulai 1 Januari 2017, tiga industri yang mendapat perlakuan khusus dengan mendapat penurunan harga gas yaitu industri yang berbahan baku gas seperti industri petrokimia, industri pupuk, dan industri baja. 2) Keputusan OPEC akan pengurangan produksi 1.2 juta barel per hari menjadi 32.5 juta barel per hari membuat potensi kenaikan harga minyak dunia yang otomatis membuat kenaikan harga minyak di dalam negeri. Hal ini membuat asumsi makro yang tercantum pada APBN 2017 menjadi tidak relevan karena salah satu asumsinya adalah harga minyak dalam negeri. Akibatnya penerimaan negara berpotensi menjadi lebih tinggi dari target semula. 3) Menurut Bank Indonesia, besaran cadangan devisa yang digunakan untuk menjaga kestabilan nilai tukar rupiah tidak besar sehingga posisinya masih aman. Di sisi lain cadangan devisa masih berpeluang meningkat sampai dengan akhir tahun 2016 dari program repatriasi. Tercatatkan jumlah cadangan devisa November 2016 sebesar US$ miliar, turun US$ 3.5 miliar dari US$ 115 miliar di Oktober 2016 akibat pembayaran utang luar negeri dibanding penggunaan devisa untuk stabilitas nilai tukar. Jumlah cadangan devisa sampai dengan November 2016 masih cukup untuk membiayai 8.5 bulan impor atau 8.1 bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah. Di sisi lain pengurangan pajak yang menjadi rencana Presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump, membuat potensi negara tersebut menerbitkan obligasi pemerintah untuk pembiayaan pembagunan infrastruktur dimana menjadi salah satu rencana saat kampanye Trump. Hal ini berdampak pada kepastian The Fed untuk mulai menaikkan tingkat bunganya, yang tentunya membuat ruang pelonggaran tingkat bunga BI semakin kecil. Secara keseluruhan dalam sepekan terakhir IHSG berhasil menguat kembali sebesar 1.19% atau poin dan ditutup di level 5, Akumulasi minat jual asing juga tercatatkan masih menyelimuti pergerakan indeks, dimana tercatatkan dalam sepekan sampai dengan empat pekan terakhir masing masing sebesar Rp.2.27 triliun, Rp.5.48 triliun, Rp.8.20 triliun, dan Rp triliun. Dan tercatatkan penguatan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS dalam sepekan terakhir dari Rp menjadi Rp Setelah target di level 5, tercapai di pekan kemarin, IHSG masih berpeluang untuk menguji level 5, , sebagai target selanjutnya selama masih bertahan di atas 5,212. Namun dalam sepekan kedepan pergerakannya akan dibayangi oleh aksi profit taking dari beberapa saham yang telah jenuh beli (oversold) sehingga potensi penguatan mulai terbatas. Dan pergerakan IHSG dalam sepekan kedepan diperkirakan akan dikisaran 5, , sebagai support dan resistance sementara. Beberapa saham yang saat ini underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya AKRA, APLN, ASRI, BBCA, BBNI, BBTN, CPIN, CTRS, DILD, INDF, KIJA, LPKR, LPPF, MNCN, SCMA, SMGR, SRIL, dan SSMS. Sedangkan JSMR dan SILO saat ini termasuk saham saham underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah, namun masih diliputi oleh sentimen negatif terkait rencana right issue. Berita ekonomi domestik di pekan ini diantaranya neraca perdagangan November, penjualan motor dan mobil November, ekspor dan impor November, dan keputusan tingkat bunga Desember. Sedangkan berita ekonomi global di pekan ini diantaranya Treasury Budget, Import and Export Prices, Producer Price Index Final Demand, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, EIA Petroleum Status Report, FOMC Meeting Announcement, FOMC Forecasts, Fed Chair Press Conference, Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, Empire State Mfg Survey, Housing Market Index, Treasury International Capital, dan Housing Starts. Close Weekly Return Yield to Date PE (X) Volume (miliar) Value (Rp. triliun) BI 7-Day RR IDR/USD 5,620 5,290 4,960 4,630 4,300 Widhi Indratmo Nugroho Analyst widhi@lautandhana.com (Ext.2051) COMPOSITE LAST TOTAL TRANSACTION ECONOMIC INDICATORS Rp. 5, % 15.57% % 13,337 JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD 4-Jan Apr Aug-16 8-Dec-16 Composite (LHS) SECTOR 47,000 33,000 19,000 5,000 (9,000) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS) Agriculture 1.14% 1.48% Basic Industry 1.70% 2.77% Consumer Goods 1.26% 2.56% Finance 1.73% 2.67% Infrastructure 1.50% 2.32% Manufacture 1.09% 2.60% Mining 0.16% 1.90% Misc. Industry -0.17% 2.52% Property 0.69% 1.87% Trade & Service 0.78% 2.21% SECTOR WEEKLY RETURN 9-Dec-16 2-Dec-16 Agriculture 14.40% 17.49% Basic Industry 4.87% 0.55% Consumer Goods 2.74% 1.23% Finance 17.44% 4.43% Infrastructure 7.29% 5.91% Manufacture 20.86% -0.82% Mining 6.97% 33.69% Misc. Industry 0.50% -1.49% Property % 29.31% Trade & Service 14.33% 5.08% WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW 9-Dec-16 2-Dec-16 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

2 PE Band IHSG Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio 21.26x. 8,000 7, x x Closing 9 Desember , x 4, x 3, x - Dec-03 Jun-05 Nov-06 Apr-08 Oct -09 Mar-11 Aug-12 Jan-14 Jun-15 Dec-16 Sector Performance 2016 Selama 2016 beberapa sector yang outperformance 9,000 Mining Closing 9 Desember 2016 terhadap IHSG diantaranya: sektor mining, basic 7,500 industry, misc.industry, manufacture, dan consumer. Basic Ind Misc Ind Manuf ac Consumer 4,500 J CI 3,000 Jan-16 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Note: All Sectors Rebase to JCI Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG 1.73 Sell on Strength 5,000 Cy c l e J CI Closing 9 Desember 2016 Saat ini siklus IHSG berada 4, dikisaran average STDEV Trading Area 3, Average STDEV Buy on Weakness 0.82 Krisis Global 2008 Bottom Fishing Jan-03 Jul-04 Feb-06 Aug-07 Mar-09 Oct -10 Apr-12 Nov-13 May-15 Dec

3 Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside AALI Trading 17, % MPPA Trading 1, % ADHI Trading 2, % MYRX Trading ADRO SoS 1, % PGAS Trading 3, % AKRA Trading 7, % PTBA SoS 13, % ANTM SoS % PTPP Trading 5, % ASII Trading 8, % PWON Trading % ASRI Trading % SCMA BoW 3, % BBCA Trading 16, % SILO BoW 11, % BBNI Trading 6, % SMGR BoW 10, % BBRI Trading 13, % SMRA BoW 1, % BBTN Trading 2, % SRIL Trading % BMRI Trading 11, % SSMS BoW 2, % BMTR BoW 1, % TLKM Trading 4, % BSDE Trading 2, % UNTR SoS 24, % CPIN Trading 3, % UNVR BoW 44, % ELSA BoW % WIKA BoW 3, % GGRM Trading 77, % WSKT Trading 3, % HMSP BoW 4, % ICBP BoW 10, % OTHERS INCO SoS 2, % CTRA Trading 1, % INDF Trading 9, % CTRP Trading % INTP Trading 16, % CTRS Trading 4, % JSMR BoW 5, % KIJA Trading % KLBF Trading 1, % SMCB Trading % LPKR BoW 1, % GIAA Trading % LPPF Trading 20, % KAEF SoS 1, % LSIP Trading 1, % SMBR SoS % MNCN Trading 2, % TINS SoS % Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg 2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir 3. Posisi Cycle yang berada dibawah (-1) standard deviation, diperkirakan mempunyai ruang koreksi yang mulai terbatas Pemilihan Saham Passive Strategy Beberapa saham yang berada di atas fairly price line (security market line) mencerminkan kondisi under price. Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli maupun menambah proporsi (overweight) pada saham ini. Sedangkan beberapa saham yang berada di bawah fairly price line mencerminkan kondisi over price. Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight) pada saham ini. Expected Return 77% 47% 17% AKRA SSMS DILD SILO SMCB LSIP CTRS KIJA LPKR LPPF JSMR MNCN WSKT BBTN SCMA BSDE PTPP INDF TLKM WIKA SRIL SMRA GGRM ADHIBBNI ASRI ICBP CTRA BBRI BBCA KLBFPTBA SMGR MPPA PGAS PWON ASII UNVR ADRO UNTR INTP AALI ELSA BMRI CPIN Under Price Area (Positive Alpha) Update 9 Desember 2016 Fairly Price Line -13% BJTM INCO CTRP TINS KAEF BJBR Over Price Area (Negative Alpha) -43% Sensitivity to Market 3

4 Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah AKRA PE Band APLN PE Band 8, x 31.35x 27.3x x 10.57x 23.25x x 6, x x 4, x 2, ASRI PE Band BBCA PE Band 1, x 18, x 20.89x 17.15x 18.93x 13.9x 15, x 15x x 500 9, BBNI PE Band BBTN PE Band 8, x 11.93x 2, x 14.09x 10.45x 11.28x 6, x 7.5x 1, x 4, x 2, Dec-10 CPIN PE Band CTRS PE Band 38x 31.63x 25.25x 4, x 18.9x 14.5x 10.1x 4,750 3, x 18.88x 3,500 2, x 12.5x 2,250 1,

5 DILD PE Band INDF PE Band x 24.73x 19.65x 9, x 27.2x 22.2x 17.2x x 7, x 12.2x x 6, , ,600 KIJA PE Band LPKR PE Band x 23.52x 48x 38.22x x 1, x 400 1, x 8.4x x 50 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Jan-15 Jan-16 Dec LPPF PE Band MNCN PE Band x 32.5x 26.4x 20.3x 4, x 25.28x 20.45x 19,000 3, x 1 2, x 13,000 1,750 10,000 Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 SCMA PE Band SMGR PE Band 4, x 36.35x 29.6x 20, x 3,725 16, x 19.13x 3,150 13, x 12.18x 2,575 9, x Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 5

6 SRIL PE Band SSMS PE Band x 2, x 11.75x 9.3x 28.33x 425 2, x 21.85x 300 1, x 4.4x x 50 Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 6

7 AGRICULTURE Plantation & Others Emiten Ticker Close Weekly Indicator Weekly Forecast YTD Performance Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish Astra Ago Lestari Tbk AALI 17,300 16,350 17, % 9.15% Underweight 16,800 17,725 PP London Sumatra Tbk LSIP 1,800 1,710 1, % 36.36% Underweight 1,760 1,835 Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk SSMS 1,375 1,300 1, % % Overweight 1,335 1,410 Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 3,130 3,090 3, % 20.38% Overweight 2,980 3,260 MINING Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO 1,665 1,530 1, % % Overweight 1,570 1,745 Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 12,300 11,325 12, % % Overweight 11,750 12,775 Elnusa Tbk ELSA % 87.85% Underweight Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk ANTM , % % Underweight Vale Indonesia Tbk INCO 3,380 3,330 3, % % Underweight 3,270 3,470 BASIC INDUSTRY Cement & Others Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 15,575 14,625 16, % % Underweight 14,775 16,275 Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 9,250 8,225 9, % % Overweight 8,800 9,625 MISC.INDUSTRY Otomotif Astra International Tbk ASII 7,850 7,550 7, % 30.83% Overweight 7,475 8,175 Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL % % Overweight CONSUMER GOODS Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 8,750 8,150 8, % % Overweight 8,450 9,000 Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 7,450 7,225 7, % 43.96% Overweight 7,175 7,675 Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 42,400 39,800 42, % 14.59% Underweight 41,025 43,600 Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 66,325 62,600 66, % 20.59% Overweight 64,575 67,875 Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk HMSP 3,880 3,790 3, % % Overweight 3,790 3,950 Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,540 1,385 1, % 16.67% Overweight 1,480 1,590 PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION Alam Sutera Realty Tbk ASRI % 10.20% Overweight Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,810 1,680 1, % 0.56% Overweight 1,720 1,885 Lippo Karawaci Tbk LPKR % % Overweight Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON % 36.09% Overweight Summarecon Agung Tbk SMRA 1,425 1,340 1, % % Overweight 1,350 1,490 Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk ADHI 1,895 1,830 1, % % Overweight 1,820 1,960 PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 3,910 3,870 4, % 0.90% Overweight 3,800 4,000 Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 2,450 2,330 2, % -7.20% Overweight 2,350 2,530 Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 2,510 2,260 2, % 50.30% Overweight 2,430 2,570 INFRASTRUCTURE Energy, Transportation & Highway, Telecommunication, Non Building Construction Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PGAS 2,710 2,570 2, % -1.28% Overweight 2,600 2,800 Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 4,260 3,900 4, % % Overweight 4,110 4,390 Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 3,910 3,770 3, % 25.93% Overweight 3,780 4,010 FINANCE Bank Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 14,675 14,125 15, % 10.34% Overweight 14,125 15,150 Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,300 5,025 5, % 6.21% Overweight 5,025 5,525 Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 11,300 10,425 11, % -1.09% Overweight 10,725 11,775 Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,670 1,590 1, % 28.96% Overweight 1,620 1,710 Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 10,700 10,025 10, % 15.68% Underweight 10,175 11,150 TRADE & SERVICE Investment Company & Wholesale AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 6,450 6,300 6, % % Overweight 6,325 6,550 United Tractors Tbk UNTR 22, , % 35.55% Underweight 22,075 23,775 Matahari Departement Store Tbk LPPF 14,950 14,025 15, % % Overweight 14,425 15,400 Matahari Putra Prima Tbk MPPA 1,715 1,700 1, % -6.03% Overweight 1,630 1,785 Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,735 1,645 1, % -6.47% Overweight 1,665 1,795 Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 2,580 2,280 2, % % Overweight 2,470 2,670 Global Mediacom Tbk BMTR % % Overweight Hanson International Tbk MYRX % % Overweight Siloam International Hospitals Tbk SILO 10,750 10,175 10, % 9.69% Overweight 10,550 10,925 7

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