Resistance Kuat di Level 4,630.71

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1 Senin, 19 Oktober 2015 Resistance Kuat di Level 4, Salah satu penyebab menurunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia adalah melemahnya daya beli masyarakat, sehingga pemerintah mengeluarkan berbagai kebijakan paket ekonomi sebagai cara untuk mendorong daya beli masyarakat. Paket kebijakan ekonomi jilid 4 yang dikeluarkan pada hari kamis di pekan kemarin mengenai formulasi kenaikan upah minimum provinsi (UMP) dengan menggunakan indikator inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional yang rencananya akan diumumkan tiap tahun di bulan November. Tujuan utama kebijakan ini adalah untuk memberi kepastian kenaikan upah tiap tahun bagi pekerja dan kepastian dunia usaha akan beban upah di masa mendatang sehingga diharapkan akan tercipta iklim investasi serta dunia usaha yang kondusif. Perkiraan Bank Indonesia (BI) akan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia di Q yang sedikit lebih tinggi dari periode sebelumnya dimana ditopang dari belanja modal pemerintah walaupun masih mempertahankan BI rate di level 7.5% di tengah risiko ketidakpastian global yang masih tinggi serta masih dianggap sejalan dengan sasaran inflasi 4% +/- 1% di 2015 dan 2016, ternyata tidak mampu membuat IHSG untuk bergerak positif dalam sepekan terakhir di tengah melemahnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS. Dan secara keseluruhan IHSG melemah dalam sepekan terakhir sebesar 1.47% atau poin akibat aksi profit taking dari beberapa saham yang menguat tajam di sepekan sebelumnya dan ditutup di level 4, dengan diikuti oleh akumulasi minat jual asing dalam sepekan sebesar Rp miliar. Akumulasi minat jual asing juga tercatatkan dalam empat pekan terakhir sebesar Rp miliar, sedangkan dalam dua pekan dan tiga pekan terakhir masih tercatatkan akumulasi minat beli asing masing masing sebesar Rp.2.12 triliun dan Rp.1.50 triliun. Dan selama 2015, akumulasi minat jual asing tercatatkan sebesar Rp triliun YTD. Pelemahan IHSG juga diikuti oleh melemahnya rupiah dalam sepekan terakhir dari Rp.13,521 menjadi Rp.13,534. Pergerakan IHSG dalam sepekan kedepan masih akan berfluktuatif dalam rentang level 4, , sebagai support dan resistance. Beberapa saham blue chips yang masih berpeluang menguat sesaat dapat menjadi penopang IHSG dalam sepekan kedepan. Dan level 4, masih sebagai level konfirmasi berakhirnya tren melemah. Beberapa saham yang saat ini underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah diantaranya APLN, ASRI, BJBR, BMTR, BSDE, CTRP, CTRS, DILD, GGRM, INDF, JSMR, KAEF, KIJA, MNCN, MPPA, PWON, SILO, dan SMRA. Berita ekonomi global di pekan ini diantaranya Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, EIA Petroleum Status Report, Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, dan PMI Manufacturing Index Flash. Close Weekly Return Yield to Date PE (X) Volume (miliar) Value (Rp. triliun) BI Rate IDR/USD 5,800 5,300 4,800 4,300 3,800 Widhi Indratmo Nugroho Analyst widhi@lautandhana.com (Ext.2051) COMPOSITE LAST TOTAL TRANSACTION ECONOMIC INDICATORS Rp. 4, % % % 13,534 JCI vs Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD 2-Jan-15 5-Mar-15 7-May-15 9-Jul Sep-15 Composite (LHS) SECTOR 13,200 2, (8,) (19,200) (30,000) Net Buy YTD in Rp.bn (RHS) Agriculture 3.37% 0.07% Basic Industry -0.02% 12.32% Consumer Goods -0.94% 4.44% Finance -1.87% 13.22% Infrastructure -0.47% 5.62% Manufacture -1.77% 10.62% Mining -1.09% 5.28% Misc. Industry -4.92% 24.31% Property -2.88% 9.09% Trade & Service -1.20% 4.83% SECTOR WEEKLY RETURN 16-Oct-15 9-Oct-15 Agriculture 3.63% -3.06% Basic Industry 18.84% 0.84% Consumer Goods -0.66% 1.06% Finance -5.93% 10.99% Infrastructure -4.16% 3.78% Manufacture -4.85% 19.73% Mining % 12.75% Misc. Industry -3.03% 5.40% Property % 26.47% Trade & Service 8.34% 15.93% WEEKLY CAPITAL FLOW 16-Oct-15 9-Oct-15 Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

2 PE Band IHSG 8,000 7, x Closing 16 October 2015 Saat ini IHSG berada pada PE ratio 12.41x. 6,000 5, x 13.6 x 10.5 x 2, x - Dec-03 Feb-05 Mar-06 Apr-07 May-08 Jun-09 Jul-10 Aug-11 Sep-12 Oct-13 Nov-14 Dec-15 Siklus Pergerakan Harian IHSG 6, Saat ini siklus IHSG berada dibawah -1 standard deviation. Sell on Strength Trading Area Buy on Weakness 5,000 2,000 - Cy c le Krisis Global 2008 Jan-03 Jun-04 Nov-05 Apr-07 Oct -08 Mar-10 Aug-11 Jan-13 Jul-14 Dec-15 J CI Bottom Fishing? Closing 16 October STDEV Average -1 STDEV Siklus Pergerakan Harian Beberapa Saham LQ45 & Lainnya Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside Stock Cycle -1 STDEV Average +1 STDEV Area TP Upside AALI BoW 19, % PGAS BoW 3, % ADHI BoW 2, % PTBA BoW 7, % ADRO BoW % PTPP Trading 4, % AKRA Trading 6, % PWON BoW % ASII BoW 6, % SCMA Trading 3, % ASRI BoW % SILO BoW 16, % BBCA BoW 13, % SMGR BoW 11, % BBNI BoW 5, % SMRA BoW 1, % BBRI BoW 12, % SRIL Trading % BBTN Trading 1, % SSMS Trading 1, % BMRI BoW 10, % TBIG BoW 7, % BMTR BoW 1, % TLKM BoW 3, % BSDE Trading 2, % UNTR Trading 20, % CPIN Trading 2, % UNVR BoW 36, % EXCL Trading 4, % WIKA BoW 3, % GGRM BoW 56, % WSKT Trading 1, % ICBP Trading 15, % WTON Trading 1, % INCO BoW 2, % INDF Trading 7, % OTHERS INTP BoW 21, % CTRA BoW 1, % ITMG BoW 11, % CTRP BoW % JSMR BoW 6, % CTRS BoW 3, % KLBF BoW 1, % KIJA BoW % LPKR Trading 1, % SMCB BoW 1, % LPPF Trading 19, % GIAA BoW % LSIP Trading 1, % KAEF BoW 1, % MNCN BoW 2, % SMBR BoW % MPPA BoW 3, % TINS Trading % Note: 1. TP (Target Price) Konsensus Bloomberg 2. Cycle: Posisi harga close saham di minggu terakhir 3. Posisi Cycle yang berada dibawah (-1) standard deviation, diperkirakan mempunyai ruang koreksi yang mulai terbatas 2

3 Pemilihan Saham Passive Strategy Beberapa saham yang berada di atas fairly price line (security market line) saat ini berkondisi under price dan layak dicermati. Investor dapat melakukan posisi beli maupun menambah proporsi (overweight) pada saham ini. Expected Return 100% 70% CTRS ASRI Under Price Area (Positive Alpha) Update 16 October 2015 Sedangkan beberapa saham yang berada di bawah fairly price line saat ini berkondisi over price. Investor dapat melakukan posisi jual atau mengurangi proporsi (underweight) pada saham ini. 40% 10% KAEF MPPA BMTR APLN CTRP PWON SILO BJBR MNCN GGRM EXCL JSMR BSDE WSKT PTPP INDF SMRA KLBF DILD LPPF ICBP BMRI TLKM PGAS ADRO BBRI SMGR BJTM INCO ADHI CTRA ITMG PTBA BBTN SCMA BBCA SRIL INTP BBNI AKRA TBIG SMBR UNTR WIKA WTON SMCB LSIP AALI ASII UNVR CPIN SSMS LPKR Over Price Area TINS (Negative Alpha) Fairly Price Line -20% Sensitivity to Market Saham Underprice dan mendekati PE ratio terendah APLN PE Band 700 ASRI PE Band 1, x 16.2x 9x 12x 7x x 5x x BJBR PE Band BMTR PE Band 1, 53.5x 41.98x 30.45x 18.93x 1, x 2, x 1, x 1, x Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 3

4 BSDE PE Band CTRP PE Band 16.65x 1, x 19.79x 14.33x 2,350 1, x 1, x 7x 1, x 200 CTRS PE Band DILD PE Band 23.3x 18.35x 13.4x 8.45x 19.6x 3, x 2, x 9.4x 1, GGRM PE Band INDF PE Band 76, x 24.45x 20.3x 8, x 26.65x 21.1x 15.55x 63,500 7, x 16.15x 5 6,000 12x 10x 38,500 4,750 26,000 3,500 JSMR PE Band KAEF PE Band 7, x 1,600 28x 28.4x 22x 32.6x 27.7x 6, x 1, x 5, x 9.2x 4,800 3,

5 KIJA PE Band MNCN PE Band x 30.73x x 3, x 14.91x 2, x 225 1,750 7x 9.6x 50 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 M ar-13 Sep-13 Apr-14 Nov-14 M ay-15 Dec-15 MPPA PE Band PWON PE Band 4, 51.5x 41.83x x 14.83x 32.15x 3, x 10.47x 2, x 6.1x 1, SILO PE Band SMRA PE Band 17,000 2, x 21.58x 17.65x 15,000 1, x 13.73x 1 1, x ,000 Dec-13 Jul-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 5

6 AGRICULTURE Plantation & Others Emiten Ticker Close Weekly Indicator Weekly Forecast YTD Performance Support Resistance Beta Volatility Bearish Bullish Astra Ago Lestari Tbk AALI 18,950 18,175 19, % % Underweight 18,125 19,600 PP London Sumatra Tbk LSIP 1,410 1,340 1, % % Underweight 1,370 1,440 Sawit Sumbermas Sarana Tbk SSMS 1,875 1,775 1, % 12.61% Underweight 1,790 1,940 Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk CPIN 2,500 2,450 2, % % Underweight 2,295 2,660 MINING Coal, Oil & Gas, Metal & Other Resources Adaro Energy Tbk ADRO % % Underweight Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk ITMG 10,125 10,125 11, % % Underweight 9,575 10,525 Tambang Batu Bara Bukit Asam Tbk PTBA 6,450 6,275 6, % % Underweight 6,025 6,750 Vale Indonesia Tbk INCO 2,230 2,205 2, % % Underweight 2,140 2,300 BASIC INDUSTRY Cement & Others Indocement Tunggal Perkasa Tbk. INTP 19, 17,525 19, % % Underweight 18,025 20,725 Semen Gresik Tbk SMGR 10, 10,050 10, % % Underweight 9,650 10,975 MISC.INDUSTRY Otomotif Astra International Tbk ASII 6,300 6,100 6, % % Underweight 5,800 6,675 Sri Rejeki Isman Tbk SRIL % % Underweight CONSUMER GOODS Foods, Cigarette, Pharmacy & Others Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP 13,200 12,500 13, % 0.76% Underweight 12,575 13,675 Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk INDF 6,200 5,500 6, % -8.15% Overweight 5, 6,425 Unilever Indonesia Tbk UNVR 37,575 37,125 39, % 16.33% Underweight 35,975 38,850 Gudang Garam Tbk. GGRM 42,800 42,500 44, % % Overweight 41,525 43,850 Kalbe Farma Tbk KLBF 1,445 1,425 1, % % Overweight 1,360 1,510 PROPERTY & CONSTRUCTION Alam Sutera Realty Tbk ASRI % % Overweight Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk BSDE 1,620 1,615 1, % % Overweight 1,490 1,715 Lippo Karawaci Tbk LPKR 1,260 1,165 1, % 23.53% Underweight 1,180 1,320 Pakuwon Jati Tbk PWON % % Overweight Summarecon Agung Tbk SMRA 1,300 1,295 1, % % Overweight 1,195 1,380 Adhi Karya (Persero) Tbk ADHI 2,075 2,060 2, % % Underweight 1,935 2,180 PP (Persero) Tbk PTPP 3,585 3, 3, % 0.28% Overweight 3,415 3,720 Wijaya Karya (Persero) Tbk WIKA 2,955 2,940 3, % % Underweight 2,745 3,120 Waskita Karya (Persero) Tbk WSKT 1,595 1,595 1, % 8.50% Overweight 1,525 1,650 Waskita Karya Beton (Persero) Tbk WTON 990 1, % % Underweight 915 1,065 INFRASTRUCTURE Energy, Transportation & Highway, Telecommunication, Non Building Construction Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk PGAS 3,065 2,925 3, % % Neutral 2,905 3,190 Jasa Marga Tbk JSMR 5,450 5,200 5, % % Overweight 5,150 5,675 XL Axiata Tbk EXCL 3,240 3,050 3, % % Overweight 3,045 3,390 Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk TLKM 2,680 2,635 2, % -6.46% Overweight 2,530 2,775 Tower Bersama Infrastructure Tbk TBIG 6,925 6, 7, % % Underweight 6,650 7,125 FINANCE Bank Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA 12,800 12,750 13, % -2.48% Underweight 12,000 13, Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI 5,100 4,810 5, % % Underweight 4,705 5, Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI 10,300 10,025 10, % % Underweight 9,475 10,925 Bank Tabungan Negara (Persero) Tbk BBTN 1,145 1,090 1, % -4.98% Underweight 1,085 1,190 Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI 8,925 8,850 9, % % Neutral 8,275 9,425 TRADE & SERVICE Investment Company & Wholesale AKR Corporindo Tbk AKRA 6,050 5,800 6, % 46.84% Underweight 5,875 6,175 United Tractors Tbk UNTR 18, 17,950 20, % 8.93% Underweight 17,875 19,700 Matahari Departement Store Tbk LPPF 16,300 15,600 16, % 8.67% Neutral 15,475 16,925 Matahari Putra Prima Tbk MPPA 2,465 2,260 2, % % Overweight 2,295 2,595 Media Nusantara Citra Tbk MNCN 1,660 1,640 2, % % Overweight 1,560 1,735 Surya Citra Media Tbk SCMA 3,025 2,875 3, % % Underweight 2,845 3,165 Global Mediacom Tbk BMTR , % % Overweight 930 1,045 Siloam International Hospitals Tbk SILO 12,175 12,125 12, % % Overweight 11,875 12, 6

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