IndikatorDaya Saing(2)

Transkripsi

1 IndikatorDaya Saing(2) C O N S T A N T M A R K E T S H A R E, I N T R A I N D U S T R Y I N D E X, C O M P E T I T I V E N E S S I N D E X, G I N I - H I R S C H M A N I N D E X

2 ConstantMarket Share(CMS) model Introduced by Richardson (1971), based on the assumption that without changes abroad and maintained competitiveness at home, a country s share in the world market should remain unchanged overtime. Four components making a deviation are world trade, commodity composition, market distribution, and a residue.

3 CMSA The intrinsic norm of this analysis is that a country's export share in a given market should remain unchanged over time. Keeping the market share constant, the model expresses the competitiveness term as negative or positive to adjust the actual change in market share.

4 CMSA The difference between the actual export growth from a member country into a given market and the unchanging export share implied by the constant market share norm is attributed to the following three factors: 1. The effects of a general increase in demand for imports in the given market 2. Commodity composition, and 3. Changes in competitiveness

5 Carapengukuran CMS X: exports of country A to country B Xi: commodity i exports of country A to country B m: Percentage increase in country B's total imports from period 0 to period t mi: Percentage increase in country B's imports of commodity i between period 0 to period t. and X= Xi

6 CMSA The right hand side can be divided into three components 1. The general rise in country B's total imports 2.The commodity composition of country A's exports to B in period 0, 3.An unexplained residual indicating the difference between country A s a ctual exports increase to country B and the hypothetical increase if cou ntry A maintained its share of exports of each commodity group in country B. If a country fails to maintain its market share in a given market, the competitiveness term will be negative. This indicates that the relative price increase for that country is greater than its competitors.

7 CMSInsights The first term, world trade effect (standard effect) estimates the export growth that attributes to the overall growth in the world exports. The second term, commodity-composition effect (product effect), estimates a difference in the growth rate of each commodity export compared to the world average. A positive value means a concentration of exports in commodities with growth rates higher than the world average. The third term, market effect, isolates the effect of differences in the growth rates of each commodity in each market. A positive value indicates concentration of exports on high growth market. The final term is the residual change and referred to as the competitive effect.

8 Manfaatdari pengukurancms: Mengetahui kondisi umum dunia/pasar regional (General Factor) Mengetahui daya serap komoditi potensial dari sisi permintaan (Composisition Factor) Mengetahui daya saing komoditi potensial dari sisi penawaran (Comparative Growth Factor) Kombinasi daya serap dan daya saing (Combination Analysis)

9 Shift Share Market Analysis The gains or losses of world market shares by individual countries are ofte n considered as an index of their trade competitiveness. Given changes in demand, the relative medium term inertia of geographical and sectoral specializations partly affects such outcomes. For a given period, the model distinguishes the impact of a country s initial position in different markets relative to its capacity to adapt and to its competitiveness.

10 Shift Share Market Analysis The export growth of a given country is divided into: 1. Global demand effect 2. Sectoral composition effect 3. Geographical composition effect 4. Competitiveness effect, captured by the residual term

11 Shift Share Market Analysis The change in country i s exports from time 0 to t is expressed as follows:

12 INTRAINDUSTRY INDEX Barang yang diperdagangkan di dunia ekonomi yang modern saat ini sebagian besar merupakan barang yang terdeferensiasi dan bukan merupakan barang yang homogen. Barang-barang tersebut terdeferensiasi berdasarkan variasi dan ciri khas yang dimilikinya. Misalnya adalah mobil dengan brand Toyota sudah tentu tidak sama dengan mobil dengan brand Honda karena masing-masing memiliki spesifikasi yang berbeda-beda. Perdagangan antar jenis barang yang sama (dalam industri yang sama) tetapi terdeferensiasi inilah yang kemudian disebut dengan intra-industry trade.

13 IITI Munculnya intra-industry trade dikarenakan oleh adanya pengambilan keuntungan sebagai akibat dari adanya perbedaan skala ekonomis dalam produksi. Adanya kompetisi internasional mengakibatkan setiap perusahaan memproduksi hanya satu jenis variasi atau model saja dari suatu produk guna mengurangi biaya sehingga dapat bersaing dalam mendapatkan pasar. Karena dengan sedikitnya variasi dan model maka mesin akan lebih terspesialisasi sehingga dapat digunakan untuk kegiatan operasional yang terusmenerus.

14 IITI Intra-industry trade menjadi hal yang sangat penting karena seperti analogi pada comparative advantage yang terjadi akibat dari adanya perbedaan factor endowment, maka intra-industry trade terjadi sebagai akibat adanya perbedaan skala ekonomis dari industri yang sama. Oleh karena itu, intra-industry dapat dianggap sebagai salah satu hal yang penting karena walaupun menghasilkan produk yang sama tetapi produk tersebut masih dapat diperdagangkan antar negara

15 Mengukur intra-industrytrade Pengukuran tingkat dari intra industry trade dapat dilakukan dengan intra industry trade index (T): Di mana X dan M adalah nilai ekspor dan impor dari industri tertentu atau kelompok komoditas. Nilai T berkisar antara 0-1. Ketika suatu negara tidak melakukan intra-industry trade maka nilai index T = 0 sedangkan jika suatu negara secara maksimal melakukan intraindustry trade maka nilai index T=1.

16 CompetitivenessIndex Competitiveness in trade is broadly defined as the capacity of an industry to increase its share in international markets at the expense of its rivals. The competitiveness index is an indirect measure of international market power, evaluated through a country s share of world markets in selected export categories.

17 Mengukur CI The index is the share of total exports of a given product from the region under study in total world exports of the same product. d wd x isd xiwd 100 Where s is the country of interest, d and w are the set of all countries in the world, i is the sector of interest, and x is the commodity export flow. In words, it is the share of country s s exports of good i in the total world exports of good i.

18 Gini-Hirschman The Gini-Hirschman coefficient is defined as follows: with Xij = Exports from country I to country j, Xj = Total Esport volume of country I, i= 1 n

19 Manfaat pengukuran marketshare & Gini-Hirschman: Mengetahui komoditi utama penghasil nilai tambah ekspor di tiap negara Mengetahui sebaran proporsi ekspor Jika distribusi ekspor makin meningkat maka angka index akan semakin besar yang berarti semakin rentan karena resiko ekspor tidak merata.

20 Beberapahasil penelitian

21 CMS Manufaktur Indonesia Source: Wawan Juswanto & Puji Mulyanti, Jurnal Keuangan dan Moneter, 2003

22 CMS Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil Sumber: Intan Yudha Pertiwi, Universitas Indonesia 2010

23 CMS Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil Sumber: Intan Yudha Pertiwi, Universitas Indonesia 2010

24 CMS Tekstil dan Produk Tekstil Sumber: Intan Yudha Pertiwi, Universitas Indonesia 2010

25 IITIndonesia Marius Brülhart and Michael Thorpe, Published in Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business, 3(2): 34-47, 1999

26 IITIndonesia Marius Brülhart and Michael Thorpe, Published in Asia Pacific Journal of Economics and Business, 3(2): 34-47, 1999