Analisis dan Dampak Leverage

Transkripsi

1 Analisis dan Dampak Leverage

2 leverage penggunaan assets dan sumber dana oleh perusahaan yang memiliki biaya tetap dengan maksud agar peningkatan keuntungan potensial pemegang saham. leverage juga meningkatkan risiko keuntungan, karena jika perusahaan ternyata mendapatkan keuntungan lebih rendah dari biaya tetapnya maka penggunaan leverage akan menurunkan keuntungan pemegang saham.

3 risiko bisnis dan risiko keuangan Risiko bisnis mengacu pada penyimpangan laba sebelum pajak dan bunga yang diharapkan. Risiko keuangan merupakan tambahan variabilitas dalam laba yang tersedia bagi pemegang saham biasa perusahaan serta peningkatan kemungkinan insolvensi saham biasa sebagai akibat dari penggunaan leverage keuangan.

4 Financial leverage penggunaan sumber dana yang memiliki beban tetap dengan harapan bahwa akan memberikan tambahan keuntungan yang lebih besar daripada beban tetapnya sehingga akan meningkatkan keuntungan yang tersedia bagi pemegang saham. Penggunaan financial leverage dengan harapan agar terjadi perubahan laba per lembar saham yang lebih besar dari pada perubahan laba sebelum pajak dan bunga.

5 Operating leverage mengacu pada adanya biaya operasi tetap dalam aliran pendapatan perusahaan. Dengan menggunakan biaya operasi tetap perusahaan mengharapkan bahwa perubahan penjualan akan mengakibatkan perubahan laba sebelum pajak dan bunga yang lebih besar.

6 Operating Leverage: Leverage The use of fixed operating costs as opposed to variable operating costs A firm with relatively high fixed operating costs will experience more variable operating income if sales change Financial Leverage: The use of fixed-cost sources of financing (debt, preferred stock) rather than variable-cost sources (common stock) Slide 6

7 Operating Leverage Leverage Analysis Affects a firm s business risk Business risk is the variability or uncertainty of a firm s operating income (EBIT) Financial Leverage Affects a firm s financial risk Financial risk is the variability or uncertainty of a firm s earnings per share (EPS) and the increased probability of insolvency that arises when a firm uses financial leverage Slide 7

8 Breakeven Analysis Illustrates the effects of operating leverage Useful for forecasting the profitability of a firm, division or product line Useful for analyzing the impact of changes in fixed costs, variable costs, and sales price Terms: P: price per unit, Q: quantity produced, V: variable costs per unit, VC; total variable costs, F; total fixed costs, TC: total cost (VC+F), S: sales ($) Slide 8

9 $ Breakeven Analysis Total Revenue (PQ) Quantity Slide 9

10 Costs Suppose the firm has both fixed operating costs (administrative salaries, insurance, rent, property tax) and variable operating costs (materials, labor, energy, packaging, sales commissions) Slide 10

11 Breakeven Analysis Total Revenue $ + } Total Cost (QV)+F or VC+F EBIT FC { - Breakeven EBIT Q Quantity Slide 11

12 Operating Leverage What happens if the firm increases its fixed operating costs and reduces (or eliminates) its variable costs? Slide 12

13 $ Breakeven Analysis With high operating leverage, an increase in sales produces a relatively larger increase in operating income. Trade-off: the firm has a higher breakeven point. If sales are not high enough, the firm will not meet its fixed expenses! + Total Revenue } EBIT { FC - Total Cost = Fixed Breakeven EBIT Q1 Quantity Slide 13

14 Breakeven Calculations Quantity F QB = P - V where Q B F : : breakeven level totalanticipated fixed costs P :sales priceper unit V : variable cost per unit P - V is of Q the Contribution Margin Slide 14

15 Breakeven Calculations Sales F S* = VC 1- S where S*: breakeven level F : S: totalfixed costs totalsales VC : total variable costs Note that VC S is of sales assumed to be constant Slide 15

16 Analytical Income Statement sales } - variable costs contribution margin - fixed costs operating income (EBIT) - interest EBT - taxes net income EBT (1 t) = Net Income, so, Net Income / (1 t) = EBT Slide 16

17 Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL) Operating leverage: by using fixed operating costs, a small change in sales revenue is magnified into a larger change in operating income This multiplier effect is called the degree of operating leverage Slide 17

18 DOL S Degree of Operating Leverage from Sales Level (S) % changein EBIT % changein sales changein EBIT EBIT changein sales sales Above calculation requires two analytical income statements, one for the base period and one for the following period using the new level of sales Slide 18

19 Degree of Operating Leverage from Sales Level (S) If we have the base level data, we can use this formula: DOL S Sales - Variable EBIT Costs Q( P V ) Q( P V ) F Implicit assumption is that Variable Costs / Sales and Fixed Costs stay the constant If DOL = 2, then a 1% increase in sales will result in a 2% increase in operating income (EBIT) and vice versa %Δ in EBIT = DOL Sales x %Δ in Sales Slide 19

20 Degree of Financial Leverage (DFL) Financial leverage: by using fixed cost financing, a small change in operating income is magnified into a larger change in earnings per share (EPS) This multiplier effect is called the degree of financial leverage Slide 20

21 DFL EBIT Degree of Financial Leverage % changein EPS % changein EBIT changein EPS EPS changein EBIT EBIT Each financing or capital structure (relative use of debt and equity) alternative will have a different degree of financial leverage (DFL) Slide 21

22 Degree of Financial Leverage Instead of calculating DFL for each alternative capital structure we can use the following formula with the base EBIT and differing interest expenses Note that interest expense would be based on how much debt is used financing the assets of the firm DFL EBIT EBIT EBIT If DFL = 3, then a 1% increase in operating income will result in a 3% increase in earnings per share and vice versa %Δ in EPS = DFL EBIT x %Δ in EBIT I Slide 22

23 Degree of Combined Leverage (DCL) Combined leverage: by using operating leverage and financial leverage, a small change in sales is magnified into a larger change in earnings per share This multiplier effect is called the degree of combined leverage Slide 23

24 Degree of Combined Leverage DCL S ( DOL S ) X ( DFL EBIT ) DCL S % changein EPS % changein Sales changein EPS DCL S EPS changein Sales Sales Slide 24

25 Degree of Combined Leverage If we have the base level data, we can use this formula: DCL DCL S S Sales - Variable Costs EBIT - I Q( P V ) Q( P V ) F I If DCL = 4, then a 1% increase in sales will result in a 4% increase in earnings per share %Δ in EPS = DCL Sales x %Δ in Sales Slide 25

26 Example Based on the following information on a Levered Company, answer these questions: 1) If sales increase by 10%, what should happen to operating income? 2) If operating income increases by 10%, what should happen to EPS? 3) If sales increase by 10%, what should be the effect on EPS? Slide 26

27 Levered Company Data Sales (100,000 units) $1,400,000 Variable Costs $800,000 Fixed Costs $250,000 Interest paid $125,000 Tax rate 34% Shares outstanding 100,000 Slide 27

28 Leverage Sales DCL DOL EPS DFL EBIT Slide 28

29 Levered Company Base Level Data Sales (100,000 units) $1,400,000 Variable Costs ($800,000) Fixed Costs ($250,000) EBIT (Operating Income) $350,000) Interest paid ($125,000) EBT $225,000 34% ($76,500) EAT (Net Income) $148,500 EPS = $148,500 / 100,000 = $1.485 Slide 29

30 Degree of Operating Leverage from Sales Level (S) Sales - Variable Costs DOL S EBIT 1,400,00 800,000 DOL D 350, Answer to part 1: %Δ in EBIT = DOL Sales x %Δ in Sales %Δ in EBIT = x 10% = 17.14% Slide 30

31 DFL DFL Degree of Financial Leverage EBIT EBIT Answer to part 2: EBIT EBIT I 350, ,000 %Δ in EPS = DFL EBIT x %Δ in EBIT %Δ in EPS = x 10% = 15.56% %Δ in EPS = x 17.14% = 26.67% (cumulative impact of part 1 Slide 31

32 Degree of Combined Leverage DCL DCL Answer to part 3: S S Sales - EBIT 1,400,000 Variable - 225,000 I Costs 800,000 Alternatively DCL = DOL x DFL DCL = x = %Δ in EPS = x 10% = 26.67% Slide 32

33 Levered Company Sales DCL = DOL = EPS DFL = EBIT Slide 33

34 Levered Company 10% increase in sales Sales (110,000 units) 1,540,000 Variable Costs (880,000) Fixed Costs (250,000) EBIT 410,000 ( %) Interest (125,000) EBT 285,000 Taxes (34%) (96,900) Net Income 188,100 EPS $1.881 ( %) Slide 34