LAMPIRAN 1. Program Estimasi Model EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaiMetode 2SLS

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1 LAMPIRAN 1. Program Estimasi EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaiMetode 2SLS /*Program SAS UjianTerbuka */ Title01 ProSAS UT By: RMS; Data Satu; Input NO LAT LAP PRO PKpPKt JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR BS BTK BUK; NO = NomorResponden LAT = Luas Areal Tanam(Ha) LAP = Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PRO = ProduksiKedelai(Kg) PKp = Prodtvts.KPnn(Kg/Ha) PKt = Prodtvts.KTnm(Kg/Ha) JB = JmlhBenihKedelai(Kg) JPU = JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg) JPS = JmlhPp k.sp 36/Tsp(Kg) JPK = JmlhPp k.kcl/za (Kg) JO = JmlhObat/Pestsd(Lt) JZ = Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt) JR = JmlhRhizo+ (Sachet) BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) BUK = BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp ); Cards; Data Dua; Input NO TKDK TKLK TKK TKDN TKDL TKD TKL TK CK TKLN TKLL CKL; NO = NomorResponden TKDK = TK DlmKlrg Kdl (HOK) TKLK = TK LuarKlrgKd l(hok) TKK = TenagaKerjaKdl(HOK) TKDN = TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK) TKDL = TKDlmKlgNUtLain(HOK) TKD = TKDalamKeluarga(HOK) TKL = TK LuarKeluarga(HOK) TK = TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK) CK = CurahKerjaTotal(HOK) TKLN = TKLrKlrgNonKd l(hok) TKLL = TKLrKlgNUtLain(HOK) CKL = CurahKerjaLrKlg(HOK); Cards; Data Tiga; Input NO BB BP BO BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PNK PNL PRT; NO = NomorResponden BB = BiayaBenih (Rp) BP = BiayaPupuk (Rp) BO = BiayaObat/Pests(Rp) BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) BUK = BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp ) PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PNK = PndapatnNonKdl (Rp)

2 198 Cards; PNL = PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) PRT = PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp); Data Empat; Input NO PRT PD KPT KNP KT IE IH IS PBB KL; NO = NomorResponden PRT = PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) PD = PndptnDisposable(Rp) KPT = KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) KNP = KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) KT = KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) IE = InvestasiPdidikn(Rp) IH = InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) IS = InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp) PBB = PajakBumiBngn (Rp) KL = Konsumsi Lain (Rp); Cards; Data Lima; Input NO IS IP INV TA B KRE KT BRT PRO KK KJ; NO = NomorResponden IS = InvestasiSmbrdy(Rp) IP = InvestasiProPert(Rp) INV = InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) TAB = Tabungan (Rp) KRE = KreditPertanian(Rp) KT = Konsumsi Total (Rp) BRT = PengeluaranRTTtl(Rp) PRO = ProduksiKedelai(Kg) KK = KonsumsiKedelai(Kg) KJ = Kd ljual/su rplusp(kg); Cards; Data Ena m; Input NO HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HTpHTh HHK HTI ; NO = NomorResponden HK = HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg) HG = HargaGabahKP(Rp/Kg) HJ = HargaJagung (Rp/Kg) HS = HargaSingkong(Rp/Kg) HU = HargaUbiJalar(Rp/Kg) HKT = HargaKacngTnh(Rp/Kg) HKH = HargaKacangHj(Rp/Kg) HTp = HargaTempe(Rp/0.5Kg) HTh = HargaTahu(Rp/0.5Kg) HHK = HrgRata2HslKebun(Rp) HTI = Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp); Cards; Data Tujuh; Input NO HB HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR UTKL HPH JPH; NO = NomorResponden HB = HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HPU = HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg) HPS = Hrg PSp36/Tsp(Rp/Kg)

3 199 Cards; HPK = HargaPKcl/Za(Rp/Kg) HO = HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt) HZ = HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) HR = HargaRhizo+(Rp/Sch) UTKL = UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) HPH = HgPHijau/Kdng(Rp/Kg) JPH = JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg); Data Delapan; Input NO SB UM ED AKK AK AT PBB KL LAT LAP; NO = NomorResponden SB = SukuBungaKredit(%/T) UM = UmurPetani (Th) ED = Lama Pendidikan (Th) AKK = AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng) AK = AnggotaKlrg (Orang) AT = Asset Total (Rp) PBB = PajakBumiBngnn(Rp) KL = KonsumsLainTunai(Rp) LAT = Luas Areal Tanam(Ha) LAP = Luas Areal Panen(Ha); Cards; Data Sembilan; Input NO KKB KKP KKL KK TKLN TKLL CKL DA DI DG DS; NO = NomorResponden KKB = KonsumsiKdlBenih(Kg) KKP = KonsumsiKdlPngn(Kg) KKL = KonsumsiKdlLain(Kg) KK = KonsumsiKedelai(Kg) TKLN = TKLuarKlgNonKdl(HOK) TKLL = TKLuarKlNUtLain(HOK) CKL = CurahKerjaLrKlg(HOK) DA = Du mmyarea "MilikSdr=1" DI = Du mmyirigasi"teknis=1" DG = Dummy Gender "Laki2=1" DS = DummySkill "TamatSD=1"; Cards; Options NoDateNoNu mberno Center; Data DELE; Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTujuhDelapan Sembilan; Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTujuhDelapan Sembilan; BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL); PUK = (PRO)*(HK); PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK; PKp = (PRO)/(LAP); Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu); Hkps = (Hk/Hps); Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk); If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0; If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0; If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0; If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0;

4 200 DA = Du mmyarea "MilikSdr=1" DI = Du mmyirigasi"teknis=1" DG = Dummy Gender "Laki2=1" DS = DummySkill "TamatSD=1" Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/hgpurea Hkps = RasioHgKdl/HgPSpTsp Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/hgpkclza BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha); RUN; Title02 Prosedur SYSLIN ProSAS ; ProcSyslin Data=DELE 2SLS OutEst=Kedelai Simple; Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp; Instruments HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH Da Di Dg Ds Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ; ; LAP: LAP = HK HJ hkhhpu AT JB TKDK PRT / DW; PRO: PRO = HB hps HZ HR LAP KRE PUK / DW; JB: JB = HB HZ HR LAP KRE PUK / DW; JPU: JPU = HKPU HB HO HZ jph PNK pnl PUK / DW; JPS: JPS = HKPS HB HZ da LAP TKLK PNK / DW; JPK: JPK = hkpkhb HO hzjph lap PNK PUK / DW; JO: JO = HO HB hz HR jph di PNK PUK / DW; JZ: JZ = HZ hb HO HR PNK PUK / DW; JR: JR = HR hbhpu HO hz JPH LAP prt / DW; TKDK: TKDK = utkl UM ED AKK DG LAP JPS TAB / DW; TKLK: TKLK = UTKL um ed DS tkdl JPS PUK / DW; TKDN: TKDN = utklhkakk tklk PNK tab / DW; TKDL: TKDL = utkl UM ED tklk PNL PUKT / DW; PNK: PNK = HKT PNL pukt TAB KRE /Noint DW; PNL: PNL = HTP hti at PNK PUKT TA B KRE /Noint DW; KPT: KPT = HJ AK KK KNP KRE / DW; KNP: KNP = UM AK KPT PNL KT /Noint DW; IE: IE = HK hshuhtihhk um edak IP pnl INV / DW; IH: IH = hg hth IP KRE INV / DW; IP: IP = AT IS pro PRT /Noint DW; TAB: TAB = SB hti PD /Noint DW; KRE: KRE = SB HPU HO JPH tab JB KT IH /Noint DW; ; TKK: Identity TKK = TKDK + TKLK; TKD: Identity TKD = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL; TKL: Identity TKL = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL; TK: Identity TK = TKD + TKL; CK: Identity CK = TKD + CKL;

5 201 BS: Identity BS = BS + 0; BTK: Identity BTK = BTK + 0; BUK: Identity BUK = BS + BTK; PUK: Identity PUK = PUK + 0; PUKT: Identity PUKT = PUK - BUK; PRT: Identity PRT = PUKT + PNK + PNL; PD: Identity PD = PRT - PBB; KT: Identity KT = KPT + KNP + KL; IS: Identity IS = IE + IH; INV: Identity INV = IS + IP; BRT: Identity BRT = KT + INV; KJ: Identity KJ = PRO - KK; PKp: Identity PKp = PKp + 0; RUN; ;

6 LAMPIRAN 2. HasilEstimasi EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaiMetode 2SLS ProSAS Ujian Terbuka By: RMS. Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation LAP Dependent Variable LAP Luas Areal Panen(Ha) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept HK HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg) HJ HargaJagung (Rp/Kg) HKH HargaKacangHj(Rp/Kg) HPU HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg) AT E E <.0001 Asset Total (Rp) JB <.0001 JmlhBenihKedelai(Kg) TKDK <.0001 TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK) PRT E E PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

7 204 PRO Dependent Variable PRO ProduksiKedelai(Kg) E <.0001 Error Corrected Total E8 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept HB <.0001 HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HPS Hrg PSp36/Tsp(Rp/Kg) HZ HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) HR HargaRhizo+(Rp/Sch) LAP Luas Areal Panen(Ha) KRE KreditPertanian(Rp) PUK <.0001 PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation JB Dependent Variable JB JmlhBenihKedelai(Kg) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept <.0001 Intercept HB HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HZ HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) HR <.0001 HargaRhizo+(Rp/Sch) LAP <.0001 Luas Areal Panen(Ha) KRE E E KreditPertanian(Rp) PUK E E <.0001 PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

8 205 JPU Dependent Variable JPU JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept <.0001 Intercept Hkpu RasioHgKd l/hgpurea HB HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HO HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt) HZ HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) JPH JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg) PNK E E PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PNL E E PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) PUK E E PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation JPS Dependent Variable JPS JmlhPp k.sp 36/Tsp(Kg) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept Hkps RasioHgKdl/HgPSpTsp HB HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HZ HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) DA DummyAreaMilikSdr=1 LAP Luas Areal Panen(Ha) TKLK TK LuarKlrgKd l(hok) PNK E E PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

9 206 JPK Dependent Variable JPK JmlhPp k.kcl/za (Kg ) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept Hkp k RasioHgKd l/hgpkclza HB HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HO HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt) HZ HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) JPH JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg) LAP Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PNK E E PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PUK E E PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation JO Dependent Variable JO JmlhObat/Pestsd(Lt) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept <.0001 Intercept HO E <.0001 HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt) HB HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HZ E E HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) HR HargaRhizo+(Rp/Sch) JPH JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg) DI Du mmyirigasiteknis=1 PNK E E PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PUK E E <.0001 PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

10 207 JZ Dependent Variable JZ Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept HZ E HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) HB HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HO E HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt) HR HargaRhizo+(Rp/Sch) PNK E E PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PUK E E PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation JR Dependent Variable JR JmlhRhizo+ (Sachet) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Va lue Pr> t Intercept Intercept HR HargaRhizo+(Rp/Sch) HB HargaBenihKdl(Rp/Kg) HPU HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg) HO 1-8.4E E HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt) HZ E E HargaZpt/Ppc(Rp/Lt) JPH JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg) LAP Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PRT E E PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

11 208 TKDK Dependent Variable TKDK TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept UTKL UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) UM UmurPetani (Th) ED Lama Pendidikan (Th) AKK AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng) DG Dummy Gender Laki2=1 LAP Luas Areal Panen(Ha) JPS JmlhPp k.sp 36/Tsp(Kg) TAB E E Tabungan (Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation TKLK Dependent Variable TKLK TK LuarKlrgKd l(hok) Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept <.0001 Intercept UTKL UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) UM UmurPetani (Th) ED Lama Pendidikan (Th) DS Du mmyskilltamatsd=1 TKDL TKDlmKlgNUtLain(HOK) JPS <.0001 JmlhPp k.sp 36/Tsp(Kg) PUK E E PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

12 209 TKDN Dependent Variable TKDN TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK) Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr> F <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept UTKL UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) HK HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg) AKK AngktnKerjaKlg(Orng) TKLK TK LuarKlrgKd l(hok) PNK E E PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) TAB E E Tabungan (Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation TKDL Dependent Variable TKDL TKDlmKlgNUtLain(HOK) <.0001 Error Corrected Total Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept UTKL UpahTKLuarKl(Rp/HOK) UM UmurPetani (Th) ED Lama Pendidikan (Th) TKLK TK LuarKlrgKd l(hok) PNL E <.0001 PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) PUKT E E PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

13 210 PNK Dependent Variable PNK PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) E E <.0001 Error E E12 UncorrectedTotal E15 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t HKT HargaKacngTnh(Rp/Kg) PNL PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) PUKT PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) TAB <.0001 Tabungan (Rp) KRE <.0001 KreditPertanian(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation PNL Dependent Variable PNL PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) E E <.0001 Error E E13 UncorrectedTotal E16 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t HTp <.0001 HargaTempe(Rp/0.5Kg) HTI Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp) AT Asset Total (Rp) PNK PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PUKT PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) TAB <.0001 Tabungan (Rp) KRE KreditPertanian(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

14 211 KPT Dependent Variable KPT KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) E E <.0001 Error E E8 Corrected Total E11 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept HJ HargaJagung (Rp/Kg) AK AnggotaKlrg (Orang) KK <.0001 KonsumsiKedelai(Kg) KNP KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) KRE KreditPertanian(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation KNP Dependent Variable KNP KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) E E <.0001 Error E E12 UncorrectedTotal E15 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t UM UmurPetani (Th) AK <.0001 AnggotaKlrg (Orang) KPT KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) PNL PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) KT <.0001 KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

15 212 IE Dependent Variable IE InvestasiPdidikn(Rp) E E <.0001 Error E E9 Corrected Total E12 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept HK HargaKedelai(Rp/Kg) HS HargaSingkong(Rp/Kg) HU HargaUb ijalar(rp/kg) HTI Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp) HHK HrgRata2HslKebun(Rp) UM UmurPetani (Th) ED Lama Pendidikan (Th) AK AnggotaKlrg (Orang) IP <.0001 InvestasiProPert(Rp) PNL PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) INV <.0001 InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation IH Dependent Variable IH InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) E E Error E E9 Corrected Total E11 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t Intercept Intercept HG HargaGabahKP(Rp/Kg) HTh HargaTahu(Rp/0.5Kg) IP InvestasiProPert(Rp) KRE KreditPertanian(Rp) INV InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

16 213 IP Dependent Variable IP InvestasiProPert(Rp) E E <.0001 Error E E12 UncorrectedTotal E15 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t AT Asset Total (Rp) IS InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp) PRO ProduksiKedelai(Kg) PRT PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation TAB Dependent Variable TAB Tabungan (Rp) E E <.0001 Error E E13 UncorrectedTotal E16 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t SB SukuBungaKredit(%/T) HTI Hrg Rata2Tnk/Ikan(Rp) PD <.0001 PndptnDisposable(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

17 214 KRE Dependent Variable KRE KreditPertanian(Rp) E E <.0001 Error E E11 UncorrectedTotal E14 Root MSE R-Square Dependent Mean Adj R-Sq CoeffVar Para meter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr> t SB SukuBungaKredit(%/T) HPU HargaPpk.Urea(Rp/Kg) HO HrgObat/Pest(Rp/Lt) JPH JmlhPHijau/Kdng(Kg) TAB Tabungan (Rp) JB JmlhBenihKedelai(Kg) KT <.0001 KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) IH InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) Durbin-Watson First-Order Autocorrelation

18 LAMPIRAN 3. Program Validasi EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaidenganMetodeSolusi Newton Options NoDateNoNu mberno Center; Data DELE; Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTujuhDelapan Sembilan; Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTujuhDelapan Se mb ilan; BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL); PUK = (PRO)*(HK); PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK; PKp = (PRO)/(LAP); Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu); Hkps = (Hk/Hps); Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk); If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0; If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0; If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0; If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0; DA = Du mmyarea "MilikSdr=1" DI = Du mmyirigasi"teknis=1" DG = Dummy Gender "Laki2=1" DS = DummySkill "TamatSD=1" Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/hgpurea Hkps = RasioHgKdl/HgPSpTsp Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/hgpkclza BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha); ; Title04 Prosedur SIMNLIN ProSA S UT by:rms; Proc SIMNLIN Data=DELE Type=N2SLS Newton MaxIter=50 Converge=1E-8 Simulate Stats Out=KedeleOutactualOutpredictTheilNoprint ; Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp ; Exogenous HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH DA DI DG DS Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ; Parms a a a a a a5 2.55E-9 a a a8 1.66E-8 b b b b b b b b c c c c c c5 7.06E-6 c E-6 d d d d d d d E-6 d E-6 d E-6

19 216 e e e e e e e e E-6 f f f f f f f f E-6 f E-6 g g g g3-7.82e-6 g g g g E-8 g E-7 h h h h h h E-7 h E-7 i i i i i4-8.4e-6 i5-5.03e-6 i i i E-8 j j j j j j j j j E-6 k k k k k k k k E-6 l l l l l l E-6 l E-6 m m m m m m m E-6 n n n n n o o o o o o o p p p p p p q q q q q r r r r r r r r r r r r s s s s s s t t t t u u u v v v v v v v v ; ; LAP = a0 +a1*hk +a2*hj +a3*hkh +a4*hpu +a5*at +a6*jb +a7*tkdk +a8*prt; PRO = b0 +b1*hb +b2*hps +b3*hz +b4*hr +b5*lap +b6*kre +b7*puk; JB = c0 +c1*hb +c2*hz +c3* HR +c4* LAP +c5* KRE +c6*puk; JPU = d0 +d1*(hk/hpu) +d2*hb +d3*ho +d4*hz +d5*jph +d6*pnk +d7*pnl +d8*puk; JPS = e0 +e1*(hk/hps) +e2* HB +e3*hz +e4*da +e5*lap +e6*tklk +e7*pnk; JPK = f0 +f1*(hk/hpk) +f2*hb +f3*ho +f4*hz +f5*jph +f6*lap +f7*pnk +f8*puk; JO = g0 +g1*ho +g2*hb +g3*hz +g4*hr +g5*jph +g6*di +g7*pnk +g8*puk; JZ = h0 +h1*hz +h2*hb +h3*ho +h4*hr +h5*pnk +h6*puk; JR = i0 +i1*hr +i2*hb +i3*hpu +i4*ho +i5*hz +i6*jph +i7*lap +i8*prt; TKDK = j0 +j1*utkl +j2*um +j3*ed +j4*akk +j5*dg +j6* LAP +j7*jps +j8*ta B; TKLK = k0 + k1*utkl +k2*um +k3*ed +k4*ds +k5*tkdl +k6*jps +k7*puk; TKDN = l0 +l1*utkl +l2*hk +l3*akk +l4*tklk +l5*pnk +l6*tab; TKDL = m0 +m1*utkl +m2*um +m3* ED +m4*tklk +m5*pnl +m6*pukt; PNK = n1*hkt +n2*pnl +n3*pukt +n4*tab +n5*kre; PNL = o1*htp +o2*hti +o3*at +o4*pnk +o5*pukt +o6*tab +o7*kre; KPT = p0 +p1*hj +p2*ak +p3*kk +p4*knp +p5*kre; KNP = q1* UM +q 2*AK +q 3*KPT +q 4*PNL +q 5*KT; IE = r0 +r1*hk +r2*hs +r3*hu +r4*hti +r5*hhk +r6*um +r7*ed +r8*ak +r9*ip +r10*pnl +r11*inv; IH = s0 +s1*hg +s2*hth +s3*ip +s4*kre +s5*inv; IP = t1*at +t2*is +t3*pro +t4*prt; TAB = u1*sb +u2*hti +u3*pd; KRE = v1*sb +v2*hpu +v3*ho +v4*jph +v5*tab +v6*jb +v7*kt +v8*ih;

20 217 ; TKK = TKDK + TKLK; TKD = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL; TKL = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL; TK = TKD + TKL; CK = TKD + CKL; BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL); BUK = BS + BTK; PUK = (PRO)*(HK); PUKT = PUK - BUK; PRT = PUKT + PNK + PNL; PD = PRT - PBB; KT = KPT + KNP + KL; IS = IE + IH; INV = IS + IP; BRT = KT + INV; KJ = PRO - KK; PKp = (PRO)/(LAP); RUN;

21 LAMPIRAN 4. HasilValidasi EkonomiRumahtangga PetaniKedelaidenganMetodeSolusi Newton ProSAS Ujian Terbuka By: RMS. The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable Nobs N Mean StdDev Mean StdDev LAP Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PRO ProduksiKedelai(Kg) JB JmlhBenihKedelai(Kg) JPU JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg) JPS JmlhPp k.sp 36/Tsp(Kg) JPK JmlhPp k.kcl/za (Kg ) JO JmlhObat/Pestsd(Lt) JZ Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt) JR JmlhRhizo+ (Sachet) TKDK TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK) TKLK TK LuarKlrgKd l(hok) TKDN TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK) TKDL TKDlmKlgNUtLain(HOK) PNK PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PNL PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) KPT KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) KNP KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) IE InvestasiPdidikn(Rp) IH InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) IP InvestasiProPert(Rp) TAB Tabungan (Rp) KRE KreditPertanian(Rp) TKK TenagaKerjaKdl(HOK) TKD TKDalamKeluarga(HOK) TKL TK LuarKeluarga(HOK) TK TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK) CK CurahKerjaTotal(HOK) BS BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) BUK BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp) PUK PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) PUKT PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PRT PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) PD PndptnDisposable(Rp) KT KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) IS InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp) INV InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) BRT PengeluaranRTTtl(Rp) KJ KdlJual/SurplusP(Kg) PKp ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha)

22 220 The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simultaneous Simulation Statistics of fit Mean Mean% MeanAbs MeanAbs RMS RMS% Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp

23 221 The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simultaneous Simulation Theil Forecast Error Statistics MS E Decomposition Proportions Corr Bias RegDistVarCovarInequalCoef Variable N MS E (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK E PNL E KPT E KNP E IE E IH E IP E TAB E KRE E TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS E BTK E BUK E PUK E PUKT E PRT E PD E KT E IS E INV E BRT E KJ PKp E

24 LAMPIRAN 5. Program SimulasiKebijakan Ekonomi RumahtanggaPetaniKedelai Options NoDateNoNu mberno Center; Data DELE; Set SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTujuhDelapan Sembilan; Merge SatuDuaTigaEmpat Lima EnamTujuhDelapan Sembilan; BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL); PUK = (PRO)*(HK); PUKT = PUK - BS - BTK; PKp = (PRO)/(LAP); Hkpu = (Hk/Hpu); Hkps = (Hk/Hps); Hkp k = (Hk/Hpk); If DA>0 Then DA =1; Else DA=0; If DI>0 Then DI=1; Else DI=0; If DG>0 Then DG=1; Else DG=0; If DS>0 Then DS=1; Else DS=0; DA = Du mmyarea "MilikSdr=1" DI = Du mmyirigasi"teknis=1" DG = Dummy Gender "Laki2=1" DS = DummySkill "TamatSD=1" Hkpu = RasioHgKd l/hgpurea Hkps = RasioHgKdl/HgPSpTsp Hkp k = RasioHgKd l/hgpkclza BS = BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK = BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) PUK = PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) PUKT = PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PKp = ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha); ; Title03 KenaikanHargaKedelai25.0%; HK = (1.25*HK); RUN; ; Title04 Prosedur SIMNLIN ProSAS UT by: RMS; Proc SIMNLIN Data=DELE Type=N2SLS Newton MaxIter=50 Converge=1E-8 Simulate Stats Out=KedeleOutactualOutpredictTheilNoprint ; Endogenous LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp ; Exogenous HK HG HJ HS HU HKT HKH HB HPU HPS HPK HO HZ HR HTp HTh HTI HHK UTKL UM ED AKK AK AT SB PBB KL KK TKLN TKLL CKL JPH DA DI DG DS Hkpu Hkps Hkp k ; Parms a a a a a a5 2.55E-9 a a a8 1.66E-8 b b b b b b b b

25 224 c c c c c c5 7.06E-6 c E-6 d d d d d d d E-6 d E-6 d E-6 e e e e e e e e E-6 f f f f f f f f E-6 f E-6 g g g g3-7.82e-6 g g g g E-8 g E-7 h h h h h h E-7 h E-7 i i i i i4-8.4e-6 i5-5.03e-6 i i i E-8 j j j j j j j j j E-6 k k k k k k k k E-6 l l l l l l E-6 l E-6 m m m m m m m E-6 n n n n n o o o o o o o p p p p p p q q q q q r r r r r r r r r r r r s s s s s s t t t t u u u v v v v v v v v ; ; LAP = a0 +a1*hk +a2*hj +a3*hkh +a4*hpu +a5*at +a6*jb +a7*tkdk +a8*prt; PRO = b0 +b1*hb +b2*hps +b3*hz +b4*hr +b5*lap +b6*kre +b7*puk; JB = c0 +c1*hb +c2*hz +c3* HR +c4* LAP +c5* KRE +c6*puk; JPU = d0 +d1*(hk/hpu) +d2*hb +d3*ho +d4*hz +d5*jph +d6*pnk +d7*pnl +d8*puk; JPS = e0 +e1*(hk/hps) +e2* HB +e3*hz +e4*da +e5*lap +e6*tklk +e7*pnk; JPK = f0 +f1*(hk/hpk) +f2*hb +f3*ho +f4*hz +f5*jph +f6*lap +f7*pnk +f8*puk; JO = g0 +g1*ho +g2*hb +g3*hz +g4*hr +g5*jph +g6*di +g7*pnk +g8*puk; JZ = h0 +h1*hz +h2*hb +h3*ho +h4*hr +h5*pnk +h6*puk; JR = i0 +i1*hr +i2*hb +i3*hpu +i4*ho +i5*hz +i6*jph +i7*lap +i8*prt; TKDK = j0 +j1*utkl +j2*um +j3*ed +j4*akk +j5*dg +j6* LAP +j7*jps +j8*ta B; TKLK = k0 + k1*utkl +k2*um +k3*ed +k4*ds +k5*tkdl +k6*jps +k7*puk; TKDN = l0 +l1*utkl +l2*hk +l3*akk +l4*tklk +l5*pnk +l6*tab; TKDL = m0 +m1*utkl +m2*um +m3* ED +m4*tklk +m5*pnl +m6*pukt; PNK = n1*hkt +n2*pnl +n3*pukt +n4*tab +n5*kre; PNL = o1*htp +o2*hti +o3*at +o4*pnk +o5*pukt +o6*tab +o7*kre; KPT = p0 +p1*hj +p2*ak +p3*kk +p4*knp +p5*kre; KNP = q1* UM +q 2*AK +q 3*KPT +q 4*PNL +q 5*KT; IE = r0 +r1*hk +r2*hs +r3*hu +r4*hti +r5*hhk +r6*um +r7*ed +r8*ak +r9*ip +r10*pnl +r11*inv;

26 225 IH = s0 +s1*hg +s2*hth +s3*ip +s4*kre +s5*inv; IP = t1*at +t2*is +t3*pro +t4*prt; TAB = u1*sb +u2*hti +u3*pd; KRE = v1*sb +v2*hpu +v3*ho +v4*jph +v5*tab +v6*jb +v7*kt +v8*ih; ; TKK = TKDK + TKLK; TKD = TKDK + TKDN + TKDL; TKL = TKLK + TKLN + TKLL; TK = TKD + TKL; CK = TKD + CKL; BS = (JB* HB)+((JPU*HPU)+(JPS* HPS)+(JPK* HPK))+((JO*HO)+(JZ* HZ)+(JR* HR)); BTK = (TKLK)*(UTKL); BUK = BS + BTK; PUK = (PRO)*(HK); PUKT = PUK - BUK; PRT = PUKT + PNK + PNL; PD = PRT - PBB; KT = KPT + KNP + KL; IS = IE + IH; INV = IS + IP; BRT = KT + INV; KJ = PRO - KK; PKp = (PRO)/(LAP); RUN; ;

27 LAMPIRAN 6. HasilSimulasiKebijakan Ekonomi RumahtanggaPetaniKedelai ProSAS Ujian Terbuka By: RMS. KenaikanHargaKedelai 25.0% The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simultaneous Simulation Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable Nobs N Mean StdDev Mean StdDev LAP Luas Areal Panen(Ha) PRO ProduksiKedelai(Kg) JB JmlhBenihKedelai(Kg) JPU JmlhPupuk Urea (Kg) JPS JmlhPp k.sp 36/Tsp(Kg) JPK JmlhPp k.kcl/za (Kg ) JO JmlhObat/Pestsd(Lt) JZ Jumlah ZPT/Ppc (Lt) JR JmlhRhizo+ (Sachet) TKDK TK DlmKlrgKdl (HOK) TKLK TK LuarKlrgKd l(hok) TKDN TKDlmKlgNonKdl(HOK) TKDL TKDlmKlgNUtLain(HOK) PNK PndapatnNonKdl (Rp) PNL PndapatnNUtLain(Rp) KPT KonsumsiPngTunai(Rp) KNP KonsumsiNonPngn(Rp) IE InvestasiPdidikn(Rp) IH InvestasiKsehatn(Rp) IP InvestasiProPert(Rp) TAB Tabungan (Rp) KRE KreditPertanian(Rp) TKK TenagaKerjaKdl(HOK) TKD TKDalamKeluarga(HOK) TKL TK LuarKeluarga(HOK) TK TenagaKerjaTtl(HOK) CK CurahKerjaTotal(HOK) BS BiayaSaranaProd(Rp) BTK BiayaTenagaKerja(Rp) BUK BiayaUt.Kedelai(Rp) PUK PenerimaanUt.Kdl(Rp) PUKT PndapatnUtKdlTtl(Rp) PRT PendapatanRT.Ttl(Rp) PD PndptnDisposable(Rp) KT KonsumsiRT.Total(Rp) IS InvestasiSmbrDy(Rp) INV InvestasiRT.Ttl(Rp) BRT PengeluaranRTTtl(Rp) KJ KdlJual/SurplusP(Kg) PKp ProdtvtKdlPnn(Kg/Ha)

28 228 The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simultaneous Simulation Statistics of fit Mean Mean% MeanAbs MeanAbs RMS RMS% Variable N Error Error Error % Error Error Error LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK PNL KPT KNP IE IH IP TAB KRE TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS BTK BUK PUK PUKT PRT PD KT IS INV BRT KJ PKp

29 229 The SIMNLIN Procedure - Simultaneous Simulation Theil Forecast Error Statistics MS E Decomposition Proporti ons Corr Bi as RegDistVarCovarInequalCoef Variable N MS E (R) (UM) (UR) (UD) (US) (UC) U1 U LAP PRO JB JPU JPS JPK JO JZ JR TKDK TKLK TKDN TKDL PNK E PNL E KPT E KNP E IE E IH E IP E TAB E KRE E TKK TKD TKL TK CK BS E BTK E BUK E PUK E PUKT E PRT E PD E KT E IS E INV E BRT E KJ PKp E

30 LAMPIRAN 7. HasilAnalisisUsahataniKedelai di Indonesia Dalam analisis usahatani kedelai, untuk menghitung nilai R/C atau rasio antara produksi dan pengeluaran dalam persen, perlu diperhitungkan nilai produksi, pendapatan, dan pengeluaran-nya, seperti terlihat pada Tabel 7.1.dan Tabel 7.2. berikut ini. Jika produksi usahatani kedelai di Indonesia adalah 100%, maka jumlah pendapatan mencapai 24.60%, dan pengeluaran-nya 75.40%, sehingga diperoleh nilai R/C sebesar 1.33 (go-project), sesuai upa h tenaga-kerja luar keluarga yang dibayarkan. Jika memperhitungkan upah tenaga-kerja dalam keluarga, maka jumlah pendapatan mencapai 17.20%, dan pengeluaran-nya 82.80%, sehingga diperoleh nilai R/C sebesar 1.21 (go-project). Berdasarkan analisis nilai R/C, maka usahatani kedelai untuk Kabupaten Garut dan Kabupaten Ponorogo adalah tidak-layak (no-go- Project), dengan nilai R/C <1. Tabel 7.1. Analisis Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001, Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Kerja yang Dibayarkan (%) Pengeluaran R/C PETANI Pendapatan Benih Pestisida Pupuk Upah TKLK Biaya Total 1.LampungTengah Garut Gunung-Kidul Wonogiri Ponorogo Pasuruan Indonesia Tabel 7.2. Analisis Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001, Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Kerja yang Diperhitungkan (%) PETANI Pengeluaran R/C Pendapatan Benih Pestisida TKDK TKLK Total Pupuk Upah Upah Biaya 1.LampungTngh Garut Gunung-Kidul Wonogiri Ponorogo Pasuruan Indonesia

31 232 Pada Diagram 7.1. dan Diagram 7.2, nilai R/C usahatani kedelai di Indonesia, berdasarkan upah tenaga kerja yang dibayarkan adalah 1.33, sedangkan berdasarkan upah tenaga kerja yang diperhitungkan adalah Diagram 7.1. Nilai R/C Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001, Berdasarkan Upah Tenaga Kerja yang Dibaya rkan Indonesia : R/C = ,6 5,4 5,5 10,8 37,8 16,0 Benih Pestisida Pupuk Upah TKLk Biaya Pendapatan Diagram 7.2. Nilai R/C Usahatani Kedelai di Indonesia Tahun 2001, Berdas arkan Upah Tenaga -Kerja yang Diperhitungkan Indonesia : R/C = ,2 5,4 5,5 10,8 37,8 7,4 16,0 Benih Pestisida Pupuk Upah TKLk Upah TKDk Biaya Pendapatan