z Fundamental & Technical Outlook Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Dolar menguat ke level tertinggi lebih dari 2 pekan terhadap sejumlah rival utamanya pada hari Jumat dipicu rilis optimis data ekonomi AS, dimana telah menekan harga minyak pasca catat penguatannya dalam 3 hari. Wall Street melemah, dengan indeks Dow turun 1% menyusul penurunan harga minyak tekan saham sektor energi. Data menunjukkan retail sales AS bulan April mencatat kenaikan terbesarnya selama setahun, mengisyaratkan ekonomi kembali meraih momentumnya pasca pertumbuhannya hampir mandeg di kuartal pertama. Indeks sentimen konsumen AS dari University of Michigan juga menunjukkan kenaikan 6,8 poin ke angka 95,8 yang adalah level tertinggi sejak Juni lalu. Menyusul indikasi kesiapan BOJ untuk melakukan intervensi ke pasar valas, maka data PDB-Q1 Jepang pada hari Rabu akan dicermati pasar. Dihari yang sama (Kamis dini hari) investor juga akan mencermati FOMC minutes untuk memperoleh kejelasan mengenai waktu pelaksanaan kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed, yang sementara ini diprediksi baru akan dinaikkan pada bulan September. Sementara data pekerjaan Inggris (Rabu) diprediksi mengalami penurunan terkait kehati-hatian investor jelang voting Brexit bulan Juni. Senin 16 Mei 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV N/A KR Trade Balance Revised Apr N/A B 8.80 06.50 JP Corp Goods Price MM Apr 0.2 % -0.1 19.30 US NY Fed Manufacturing May 7.25 IND 9.56 21.00 US NAHB Housing Market Idx May 59 IND 58 03.00 US Net L-T Flows Exswaps Mar N/A B 72.0 03.00 US Foreign Buying T-Bonds Mar N/A B 9.9 03.00 US Overall Net Capital Flow Mar N/A B 33.5 03.00 US Net L-T Flows Incl. Swaps Mar N/A B 60.9 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT P.T. Platon Niaga Berjangka Menara Karya 20th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia (021) 25533773 Fax (021) - 25533776
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 10/02/2016-19/05/2016 (GMT) 1.1375 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 13/05/2016; 1,1375; 1,1380; 1,1281; 1,1305 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 1,1369 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 1,1334 1.1464 1.1614 Price 1,15 1,14 1,13 Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 36,883 1.0820 1.1142 1.1213 @her1en 1,12 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 Pergerakan lanjutkan tekanan Rangkaian turun level high RSI melemah (Research @her1en) Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; 0,0042 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 May 13 1.1375 1.1380 1.1283 97 1.1315 60 1.1375 May 12 1.1425 1.1432 1.1369 63 1.1375 50 1.1425 May 11 1.1375 1.1446 1.1370 76 1.1425 55 1.1370 May 10 1.1385 1.1409 1.1359 50 1.1370 15 1.1385 May 09 1.1400 1.1420 1.1376 44 1.1385 20 1.1405 1.1446 1.1283 1.1614 1.1283 1.1464 1.1218 1.1614 1.0711 (11/May) (13/May) (03/May) (13/May) (12/Apr) (25/Apr) (03/May) (05/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1.1600 Reaction high on hourly chart 1.1528 High May 04 1.1476 High May 06 1.1380 High May 13 1.1254 Low Apr 26 1.1213 Reaction low on daily chart 1.1166 Low Mar 29 1.1055 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 1.1330 STOP LOSS 1.1395 1.1260 1.1230
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) Area support di 108.24 masih berpotensi diuji lagi Pola bullish trend channel berpotensi dukung reli berlanjut menuju target uptick di 110 (Research @ErwinRiset) May 13 109.10 109.48 108.52 96 108.60 40 109.00 May 12 108.45 109.39 108.24 115 109.00 55 108.45 May 11 109.20 109.37 108.38 99 108.45 80 109.25 May 10 108.40 109.34 108.28 106 109.25 90 108.35 May 09 107.35 108.60 107.05 155 108.35 120 107.15 109.48 107.05 109.48 105.55 112.58 106.58 121.68 105.55 (13/May) (09/May) (13/May) (03/May) (01/Apr) (29/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 112.58 High 01/Apr/2016 111.90 Horizontal resistance 110.70 Pivot line (1-H chart) 109.48 High 13/May/2016 108.24 Horizontal support 107.45 Pivot line (1-H chart) 107.00 Low 09/May/2016 106.43 Low 06/May/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 108.30 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 107.80 109.50 110.25
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Area minor trendline support di 1.4365 pecah Koreksi berpotensi uji area 1.43 (Research @ErwinRiset) May 13 1.4445 1.4457 1.4341 116 1.4370 80 1.4450 May 12 1.4435 1.4529 1.4407 122 1.4450 5 1.4445 May 11 1.4450 1.4486 1.4395 91 1.4445 UNCH 1.4445 May 10 1.4415 1.4477 1.4389 88 1.4445 35 1.4410 May 09 1.4430 1.4478 1.4375 103 1.4410 20 1.4430 1.4529 1.4341 1.4769 1.4341 1.4669 1.4007 1.4813 1.3837 (12/May) (13/May) (03/May) (13/May) (29/Apr) (06/Apr) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) ANALYSIS & 1.4670 Trendline resistance 1.4577 Pivot line 1.4541 High 06/May/2016 (Reaction high) 1.4457 High 13/May/2016 1.4298 Low 21/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) 1.4266 Low 19/Apr/2016 1.4129 Low 18/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) 1.4088 Low 14/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) BUY ---- SELL 1.4390 STOP LOSS 1.4475 1.4290 1.4215
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Rebound sedang uji area resistance di 0.9800 Pola Doji star berpotensi dukung sinyal bullish (Research @ErwinRiset) May 13 0.9710 0.9773 0.9701 72 0.9745 40 0.9705 May 12 0.9715 0.9724 0.9663 61 0.9705 5 0.9710 May 11 0.9755 0.9771 0.9699 72 0.9710 50 0.9760 May 10 0.9715 0.9763 0.9699 64 0.9760 45 0.9715 May 09 0.9720 0.9735 0.9684 51 0.9715 UNCH 0.9715 0.9773 0.9663 0.9773 0.9444 0.9796 0.9498 1.0257 0.9444 (13/May) (12/May) (13/May) (03/May) (22/Apr) (12/Apr) (29/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.0000 The level of psychology 0.9915 High 16/Mar/2016 (Reaction high) 0.9850 Minor trendline resistance 0.9800 Pivot line 0.9648 Low 06/May/2016 0.9561 Low 05/May/2016 0.9530 Low 04/May/2016 0.9440 Low 03/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY 0.9720 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 0.9630 0.9790 0.9840
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 30/12/2015-20/05/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 0,7481 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 0,7558 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 13/05/2016; 0,7323; 0,7325; 0,7251; 0,7263 0.7680 0.7835 0.7765 Price 0,78 0,77 0,76 0.7400 0.7402 0,75 0.6824 0.6971 0.7105 @her1en 0.7251 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 24,295 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; -0,0451 Value 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 0,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 0,7 0,69 0,68 Pergerakan dibawah pivot line dan terbatas Rangkaian turun level high RSI turun (Research @her1en) May 13 0.7315 0.7325 0.7255 70 0.7270 50 0.7320 May 12 0.7360 0.7379 0.7311 68 0.7320 55 0.7375 May 11 0.7370 0.7402 0.7337 65 0.7375 15 0.7360 May 10 0.7315 0.7373 0.7301 72 0.7360 40 0.7320 May 09 0.7375 0.7384 0.7309 75 0.7320 45 0.7365 0.7402 0.7255 0.7719 0.7255 0.7828 0.7493 0.7828 0.6828 (11/May) (13/May) (03/May) (13/May) (20/Apr) (07/Apr) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7517 High May 04 0.7478 High May 06 0.7379 High May 12 0.7325 High May 13 0.7198 Reaction low on daily chart 0.7162 Low Mar 02 0.7105 Reaction low on daily chart 0.7065 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 0.7290 STOP LOSS 0.7355 0.7220 0.7190
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 23/12/2015-20/05/2016 (GMT) 0.6886 0.6910 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 13/05/2016; 0,6815; 0,6830; 0,6754; 0,6772 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 0,6849 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 0,6849 0.7054 0.6939 Price 0,7 0,69 0,68 0.6230 0.6346 0.6550 0.6713 @her1en RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 37,423 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; -0,0081 Value 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Des 15 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 0,67 0,66 0,65 0,64 0,63 0,62 Tekanan turun untuk dekati area bawah trend channel RSI merosot (Research @her1en) May 13 0.6820 0.6830 0.6757 73 0.6775 40 0.6815 May 12 0.6815 0.6847 0.6805 42 0.6815 10 0.6825 May 11 0.6800 0.6845 0.6761 84 0.6825 70 0.6755 May 10 0.6770 0.6778 0.6717 61 0.6755 20 0.6775 May 09 0.6840 0.6848 0.6765 83 0.6775 65 0.6840 0.6848 0.6717 0.7053 0.6717 0.7054 0.6760 0.7054 0.6348 (09/May) (10/May) (03/May) (10/May) (19/Apr) (05/Apr) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) ANALYSIS & 0.7004 Reaction high on hourly chart 0.6939 High May 04 0.6891 High May 06 0.6848 High May 09 0.6749 Low May 11 0.6705 Low Mar 29 0.6667 Reaction low on daily chart 0.6574 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 0.6795 STOP LOSS 0.6860 0.6725 0.6695
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Koreksi sedang uji area support di 122.50 Target downtick di 121.40 (Research @ErwinRiset) May 13 124.05 124.12 122.77 135 122.90 115 124.05 May 12 123.85 124.62 123.70 92 124.05 20 123.85 May 11 124.25 124.39 123.60 79 123.85 40 124.25 May 10 123.40 124.45 123.28 117 124.25 90 123.35 May 09 122.30 123.70 121.91 179 123.35 115 122.20 124.62 121.91 124.62 121.50 128.16 121.72 132.25 121.50 (12/May) (09/May) (12/May) (06/May) (01/Apr) (18/Apr) (29/Jan) (06/May) ANALYSIS & 126.47 High 28/Apr/2016 (Peak) 126.25 Pivot line 124.64 Pivot line 124.12 High 13/May/2016 122.50 Pivot line 121.87 Low 09/May/2016 121.46 Low 06/May/2016 (Bottom) 119.08 Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 123.30 STOP LOSS 124.20 122.45 122.00
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Pola Doji star dukung sinyal bullish Area resistance di 1.3014 berpotensi diuji lagi (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.2907 1.2940 1.3014 1.2768 1.3014 1.2458 1.3217 1.2495 1.4689 1.2458 (09/May) (12/May) (09/May) (03/May) (05/Apr) (29/Apr) (20/Jan) (03/May) ANALYSIS & 1.3217 High 05/Apr/2016 (Peak) 1.3156 High 08/Apr/2016 1.3070 Trendline resistance 1.3014 Horizontal resistance 1.2830 Low 13/May/2016 1.2745 Pivot line 1.2693 Low 04/May/2016 1.2590 Pivot line BUY 1.2905 SELL --- STOP LOSS 1.2800 1.3015 1.3115
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 1282.51 1303.60 11/02/2016-19/05/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs 1.280 1.260 1200 1208.15 1214.45 1237.65 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 13/05/2016; 1.263,2100; 1.276,2000; 1.263,1100; 1.273,2000 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 1.264,2852 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 1.253,2155 1257.25 @her1en RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 53,581 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; 35,7000 Value 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Ozs Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 1.240 1.220 1.200 1.180 1.160 1.140 Rangkaian turun level low harian Lanjutkan pergerakan turun trend channel RSI flat (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) May 13 1267.00 1276.20 1263.88 12.32 1273.00 6.00 1267.00 1275.15 1265.90 May 12 1278.00 1280.60 1266.26 14.34 1267.00 10.50 1277.50 1268.30 1279.25 May 11 1265.50 1278.80 1265.28 13.52 1277.50 11.00 1266.50 1271.80 1276.85 May 10 1263.00 1269.10 1258.13 10.97 1266.50 3.00 1263.50 1264.85 1262.80 May 09 1285.50 1287.60 1261.83 25.77 1263.50 25.50 1289.00 1277.75 1265.25 1287.60 1258.13 1303.60 1258.13 1296.11 1209.55 1303.60 1062.28 (09/May) (10/May) (02/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (04/Jan) ANALYSIS & 1295.70 High May 06 1287.60 High May 09 1280.60 High May 12 1276.20 High May 13 1263.11 Low May 12 1257.25 Low May 10 1255.71 Reaction low on hourly chart 1252.82 Reaction low on hourly chart BUY ----- SELL 1275.00 STOP LOSS 1283.00 1265.00 1260.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 14.57 Cndl; XAG=; Bid 13/05/2016; 16,9730; 17,1750; 16,8300; 17,0900 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 16,9933 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 16,5050 14.75 16.14 18.00 16/02/2016-18/05/2016 (GMT) 17.58 16.83 @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 48,766 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 13/05/2016; 0,1010 Value 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Price Ozs 17,5 17 16,5 16 15,5 15 14,5 14 13,5 Rangkaian turun level highlow harian RSI flat Help desk closing price (17.092) previous (16.959) (Research @her1en) May 13 16.96 17.16 16.81 0.35 17.09 0.13 16.95 May 12 17.37 17.43 16.95 0.48 16.95 0.43 17.39 May 11 17.08 17.56 17.07 0.49 17.39 0.30 17.09 May 10 16.99 17.14 16.88 0.26 17.09 0.09 17.00 May 09 17.44 17.45 16.91 0.54 17.00 0.45 17.45 17.56 16.81 17.99 16.81 17.94 14.77 17.99 13.73 (11/May) (13/May) (02/May) (13/May) (29/Apr) (01/Apr) (02/May) (12/Jan) ANALYSIS & 17.72 High May 03 17.58 High May 11 17.45 High May 12 17.17 High May 13 16.83 Low May 13 16.77 Reaction low on daily chart 16.14 Low Apr 19 15.88 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 17.15 STOP LOSS 17.40 16.85 16.65
Page 12 of 12 Daily CLM6 CLM6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 20 May 2016 - Reuters) 46.78 47.02 12/02/2016-19/05/2016 (NYC) Price Bbl 43.30 45 44 43 Cndl; CLM6; Trade Price 13/05/2016; 46,41; 46,49; 45,75; 46,37 WMA; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 55 13/05/2016; 42,86 EMA; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 20 13/05/2016; 44,30 36.57 39.00 43.03 @her1en RSI; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 13/05/2016; 64,500 Value Bbl Mom; CLM6; Trade Price(Last); 14 13/05/2016; 3,73 Value 16 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 Tekanan turun mewarnai pergerakan harian Jauhi level tertinggi sebelumnya RSI merosot (Research @her1en) May 13 46.39 46.47 45.75 0.72 46.34 0.04 46.38 May 12 45.97 47.00 45.60 1.40 46.38 0.40 45.98 May 11 44.58 46.34 43.95 2.39 45.98 1.47 44.51 May 10 43.19 44.77 43.02 1.75 44.51 1.28 43.23 May 09 45.78 45.92 43.22 2.70 43.23 1.33 44.56 47.00 43.02 47.00 43.02 46.76 35.23 47.00 26.04 (12/May) (10/May) (12/May) (10/May) (29/Apr) (05/Apr) (12/May) (11/Feb) ANALYSIS & 49.45 High Nov 09, 2015 48.75 High Nov 11, 2015 48.02 Reaction high on daily chart (Nov 25, 2015) 47.03 High Nov 30, 2015 45.61 Low May 12 43.96 Low May 11 43.03 Low May 10 42.50 Low Apr 26 BUY ----- SELL 46.65 STOP LOSS 47.65 45.15 44.65