z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Pasar saham global menguat dan sterling melemah pada hari Kamis setelah BoE pangkas suku bunga dan menghidupkan kembali program pembelian obligasi untuk meredam pukulan ekonomi dari keputusan Inggris 23 Juni untuk meninggalkan Uni Eropa. BoE pangkas suku bunga ke rekor terendah menjadi 0,25%. Bursa AS dan dolar bergerak tipis karena investor berhati-hati jelang rilis data pekerjaan AS nanti malam yang diharapkan akan memberikan kejelasan mengenai waktu pelaksanaan kenaikan suku bunga oleh The Fed. Data semalam menunjukkan jobless claims naik dan factory orders turun untuk 2 bulan berturutan di periode Juni. Namun demikian, pasar tenaga kerja masih cukup sehat dan berpotensi terus dukung pertumbuhan ekonomi AS. Jumat 05 Agustus 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 07:00 JP Overtime Pay Jun N/A % 0.6 13:00 DE Industrial Orders MM Jun 0.6 % 0.0 14:30 GB Halifax House Prices MM Jul -0.2 % 1.3 15:30 HK FX Reserves* Jul N/A B 360.30 19:30 CA Employment Change Jul 10.0 K -0.70 19:30 CA Unemployment Rate Jul 6.9 % 6.8 19:30 CA Trade Balance C$ Jun -2.82 B -3.28 19:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls Jul 180 K 287 19:30 US Private Payrolls Jul 170 K 265 19:30 US Unemployment Rate Jul 4.8 % 4.9 19:30 US International Trade MM $ Jun -43.1 B -41.1 21:00 CA Ivey PMI* Jul N/A IND 54.7 00:00 US Dallas Fed PCE* Jun N/A % 1.9 02.00 US Consumer Credit Jun 17.00 B 18.56 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 1.1464 1.1614 1.1432 11/04/2016-11/08/2016 (GMT) Price 1,16 1,15 @her1en 1,14 1.1183 1.1233 1,13 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 05/08/2016; 1,1127; 1,1133; 1,1117; 1,1125 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 1,1105 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 1,1120 1.0909 1,12 1,11 1,1 1,09 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian, tekanan masih lanjut RSI harian turun (Research @her1en) Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 53,518 Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 0,0054 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Aug 04 1.1150 1.1156 1.1115 41 1.1130 20 1.1150 Aug 03 1.1220 1.1231 1.1141 90 1.1150 70 1.1220 Aug 02 1.1165 1.1233 1.1156 77 1.1220 60 1.1160 Aug 01 1.1170 1.1183 1.1155 28 1.1160 25 1.1185 July 29 1.1080 1.1197 1.1070 127 1.1185 105 1.1080 1.1233 1.1115 1.1233 1.1115 1.1197 1.0953 1.1614 1.0711 (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (29/Jul) (25/Jul) (03/May) (05/Jan) 1.1338 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1272 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1231 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1179 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1.1102 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.1067 Low Jul 29 1.0959 Low Jul 27 1.0909 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 1.1150 STOP LOSS 1.1215 1.1080 1.1050
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP) Area lowerline dari pola symmetrical triangle masih efektif menahan tekanan Namun daily trend bearish Target downtick di 100 99 Waspadai RSI masih berada di zona oversold (29) (Research @ErwinRiset) Aug 04 101.30 101.66 100.87 79 101.25 UNCH 101.25 Aug 03 101.05 101.57 100.76 81 101.25 30 100.95 Aug 02 102.30 102.81 100.69 212 100.95 145 102.40 Aug 01 102.35 102.67 102.02 65 102.40 35 102.05 July 29 104.80 105.33 101.98 335 102.05 330 105.35 102.81 100.69 102.81 100.69 107.47 100.05 121.68 99.11 (02/Aug) (02/Aug (02/Aug) (02/Aug (21/Jul) (08/Jul) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) 105.53 Reaction high (1-H chart) 103.96 Reaction high (1-H chart) 102.81 High 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) 101.83 Reaction high (1-H chart) 100.42 Low 11/Jul/2016 100.02 Low 08/Jul/2016 (Bottom) 99.08 Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 97.96 Low 08/Nov/2013 BUY 100.90 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 100.25 101.75 102.15
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Koreksi breakout area trendline support Pola ascending triangle gagal berlanjut Area support di 1.3047 (Research @ErwinRiset) Aug 04 1.3325 1.3344 1.3104 240 1.3115 200 1.3315 Aug 03 1.3340 1.3371 1.3282 89 1.3315 25 1.3340 Aug 02 1.3185 1.3364 1.3173 191 1.3340 160 1.3180 Aug 01 1.3210 1.3271 1.3164 107 1.3180 55 1.3235 July 29 1.3160 1.3300 1.3150 150 1.3235 70 1.3165 1.3371 1.3104 1.3371 1.3104 1.3480 1.2801 1.5018 1.2801 (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (15/Jul) (06/Jul) (24/Jun) (06/Jul) 1.3533 High 29/Jun/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3480 High 15/Jul/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3371 High 03/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) 1.3203 SMA200 (1-H chart) 1.3047 Pivot line (1-D chart) 1.2968 Low 12/Jul/2016 1.2849 Low 12/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2796 Low 06/Jul/2016 (Bottom) BUY ---- SELL 1.3160 STOP LOSS 1.3220 1.3045 1.3000
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Area trendline support masih efektif mendukung rebound Target uptick di 0.9790 0.9830 Trendline support di sekitar 0.9635 (Research @ErwinRiset) Aug 04 0.9730 0.9750 0.9722 28 0.9740 5 0.9735 Aug 03 0.9650 0.9738 0.9640 98 0.9735 90 0.9645 Aug 02 0.9685 0.9699 0.9634 65 0.9645 35 0.9680 Aug 01 0.9695 0.9703 0.9665 38 0.9680 UNCH 0.9680 July 29 0.9800 0.9817 0.9638 179 0.9680 130 0.9810 0.9750 0.9634 0.9750 0.9634 0.9951 0.9638 1.0257 0.9444 (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (27/Jul) (29/Jul) (29/Jan) (03/May) 1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) 0.9955 High 30/May/2016 (Peak) 0.9873 High 28/Jul/2016 0.9800 Reaction high (1-H chart) 0.9628 Low 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction low) 0.9555 Low 24/Jun/2016 0.9517 Low 23/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 0.9440 Low 03/May/2016 (Bottom) BUY 0.9680 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 0.9600 0.9815 0.9850
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 0.7835 0.7765 14/04/2016-11/08/2016 (GMT) Price 0.7673 0,78 0,77 0,76 EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 0,7546 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 0,7505 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 05/08/2016; 0,7627; 0,7631; 0,7619; 0,7626 0.7142 0.7302 0.7404 @her1en 0,7 RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 63,612 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 0,0036 Value 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 0,75 0,74 0,73 0,72 0,71 Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian, lanjutkan rangkaian naik level low harian RSI naik (Research @her1en) Aug 04 0.7590 0.7640 0.7583 57 0.7630 45 0.7585 Aug 03 0.7600 0.7615 0.7569 46 0.7585 20 0.7605 Aug 02 0.7530 0.7638 0.7500 138 0.7605 70 0.7535 Aug 01 0.7595 0.7615 0.7530 85 0.7535 70 0.7605 July 29 0.7510 0.7610 0.7494 116 0.7605 100 0.7505 0.7640 0.7500 0.7640 0.7500 0.7673 0.7409 0.7828 0.6828 (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (15/Jul) (06/Jul) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) 0.7835 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7765 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7719 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7673 High Jul 15 0.7580 Low Aug 04 0.7542 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.7490 Reaction low on daily chart 0.7404 Low 06/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) BUY 0.7600 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7535 0.7670 0.7700
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 18/04/2016-11/08/2016 (GMT) Cndl; NZD=; Bid 05/08/2016; 0,7171; 0,7176; 0,7166; 0,7170 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 0,7130 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 0,7112 0.6674 0.7323 0.6949 0.7255 @her1en RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 55,917 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 0,0057 Value 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 Price 0,73 0,725 0,72 0,715 0,71 0,705 0,7 0,695 0,69 0,685 0,68 0,675 0,67 0,665 Pergerakan alami koreksi dalam harian, ikuti gerak dari bearish trend channel RSI flat (Research @her1en) Aug 04 0.7155 0.7202 0.7147 55 0.7180 20 0.7160 Aug 03 0.7210 0.7245 0.7142 103 0.7160 75 0.7235 Aug 02 0.7170 0.7255 0.7165 90 0.7235 65 0.7170 Aug 01 0.7200 0.7230 0.7169 61 0.7170 55 0.7225 July 29 0.7085 0.7228 0.7074 154 0.7225 145 0.7080 0.7255 0.7142 0.7255 0.7142 0.7323 0.6953 0.7306 0.6348 (02/Aug) (03/Aug) (02/Aug) (03/Aug) (12/Jul) (21/Jul) (08/Jul) (20/Jan) 0.7443 Reaction high on daily chart 0.7323 High Jul 29 0.7294 High Jul 14 0.7245 High Aug 02 0.7144 Low Aug 04 0.7109 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.7064 Low Jul 29 0.7003 Reaction low on daily chart BUY ----- SELL 0.7190 STOP LOSS 0.7255 0.7120 0.7090
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP) Koreksi berlanjut meskipun cukup tipis Daily trend cenderung bearish RSI datar dekat zona oversold (32) (Research @ErwinRiset) Aug 04 112.95 113.26 112.49 77 112.65 20 112.85 Aug 03 113.40 113.61 112.68 93 112.85 40 113.25 Aug 02 114.25 114.80 113.03 177 113.25 105 114.30 Aug 01 114.30 114.72 113.94 78 114.30 15 114.15 July 29 116.15 116.78 113.89 289 114.15 255 116.70 114.80 112.49 114.80 112.49 118.45 110.99 132.25 109.60 (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (21/Jul) (11/Jul) (29/Jan) (24/Jun) 116.78 High 29/Jul/2016 115.31 Reaction high (1-H chart) 114.80 High 02/Aug/2016 (Reaction high) 113.61 Reaction high (1-H chart) 110.78 Low 06/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) 109.46 Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom) 109.02 Low 14/Dec/2012 108.62 Low 13/Dec/2012 BUY ---- SELL 113.05 STOP LOSS 114.00 112.20 111.50
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Minor trendline support sedang diuji Major trendline support di sekitar 1.2840 Target uptick di sekitar 1.3200 (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.3026 1.3017 1.3146 1.2993 1.3146 1.2993 1.3251 1.2827 1.4689 1.2458 (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (27/Jul) (04/Jul) (20/Jan) (03/May) 1.3296 High 24/Mar/2016 (Peak) 1.3251 High 27/Jul/2016 (Peak) 1.3185 High 29/Jul/2016 1.3088 High 04/Aug/2016 1.2923 Low 18/Jul/2016 1.2857 Low 15/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2827 Low 04/Jul/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2715 Low 24/Jun/2016 BUY ---- SELL 1.3030 STOP LOSS 1.3100 1.2900 1.2850
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= Cndl; XAU=; Bid 05/08/2016; 1.360,0100; 1.361,2500; 1.360,0100; 1.360,7100 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 1.341,0114 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 1.325,4431 1374.91 1367.33 18/04/2016-11/08/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs 1.340 1.320 1199.60 1242.70 1305.23 1310.56 @her1en RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 65,646 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 32,3200 Value 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 Ozs April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 1.300 1.280 1.260 1.240 1.220 1.200 1.180 Koreksi dalam harian dengan masih dekati puncak trend channel harian RSI naik (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Aug 04 1357.00 1365.05 1349.30 15.75 1360.50 2.50 1358.00 1351.15 1362.75 Aug 03 1362.50 1366.45 1354.38 12.07 1358.00 6.00 1364.00 1364.40 1358.90 Aug 02 1353.00 1367.33 1347.41 19.92 1364.00 10.50 1353.50 1358.15 1363.75 Aug 01 1349.00 1354.86 1346.62 8.24 1353.50 1.00 1354.50 1348.85 1349.65 July 29 1336.50 1355.10 1330.48 24.62 1354.50 18.50 1336.00 1332.50 1342.00 1367.33 1346.62 1367.33 1346.62 1374.91 1311.04 1374.91 1062.28 (02/Aug) (01/Aug) (02/Aug) (01/Aug) (06/Jul) (21/Jul) (06/Jul) (04/Jan) 1399.06 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1391.76 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1374.91 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1367.33 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1352.35 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1345.88 Low Aug 01 1339.52 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1333.45 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 1357.00 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1348.00 1367.00 1372.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 21.10 20.78 17/05/2016-10/08/2016 (GMT) Price Ozs Cndl; XAG=; Bid 05/08/2016; 20,3260; 20,3680; 20,3200; 20,3400 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 19,9511 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 19,3092 15.77 16.90 17.11 18.17 19.20 @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 58,508 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 05/08/2016; 0,3180 Value 23 30 06 13 20 27 04 11 18 25 01 08 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 20 19,5 19 18,5 18 17,5 17 16,5 16 15,5 Terlihat koreksi dalam harian untuk dekati bearish trend channel RSI turun Helpdesk closing price (20.323) previous (20.388) (Research @her1en) Aug 04 20.38 20.48 20.02 0.47 20.32 0.07 20.38 Aug 03 20.60 20.69 20.34 0.35 20.38 0.21 20.59 Aug 02 20.44 20.75 20.31 0.45 20.59 0.18 20.42 Aug 01 20.32 20.61 20.26 0.35 20.42 0.10 20.31 July 29 20.14 20.37 19.93 0.44 20.31 0.18 20.14 20.75 20.02 20.75 20.02 21.10 18.67 21.10 13.73 (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (02/Aug) (04/Aug) (04/Jul) (01/Jul) (04/Jul) (12/Jan) 21.55 Reaction high 1-H chart (Jul 10, 2014) 21.22 Reaction high 1-H chart (Jul 17, 2014) 21.10 Reaction high 1-H chart 20.72 Reaction high 1-H chart 20.01 Low Aug 04 19.76 Reaction low 1-H chart 19.48 Reaction low 1-H chart 19.20 Reaction low 1-H chart BUY ----- SELL 20.45 STOP LOSS 20.70 20.15 19.95
Page 12 of 12 CLU6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 22 Aug. 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLU6 11/05/2016-10/08/2016 (NYC) 52.73 Price Bbl 48.94 50 47.05 48 Cndl; CLU6; Trade Price 05/08/2016; 41,84; 41,85; 41,75; 41,76 WMA; CLU6; Trade Price(Last); 55 05/08/2016; 45,68 EMA; CLU6; Trade Price(Last); 20 05/08/2016; 43,31 @her1en RSI; CLU6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 05/08/2016; 43,374 Value Bbl Mom; CLU6; Trade Price(Last); 14 05/08/2016; -4,18 Value 16 23 31 06 13 20 27 05 11 18 25 01 08 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Juli 2016 Agustus 2016 39.19 46 44 42 40 38 Dapat break area bearish trend channel dalam harian Rangkaian naik level high harian RSI naik (Research @her1en) Aug 04 41.13 42.06 40.42 1.64 41.80 0.65 41.15 Aug 03 39.73 41.18 39.23 1.95 41.15 1.44 39.71 Aug 02 40.05 40.89 39.25 1.64 39.71 0.35 40.06 Aug 01 41.32 41.86 39.81 2.05 40.06 1.31 41.37 July 29 41.10 41.65 40.56 1.09 41.37 0.29 41.08 42.06 39.23 42.06 39.23 49.33 40.56 51.65 26.04 (04/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Aug) (03/Aug) (04/Jul) (29/Jul) (09/Jun) (11/Feb) 46.09 Reaction high on 1-H chart 44.97 Reaction high on 1-H chart 44.37 Reaction high on 1-H chart 43.20 High Jul 27 40.43 Reaction low on 1-H chart 39.83 Reaction low on 1-H chart 38.67 Reaction low on 1-H chart 37.78 Reaction low on 1-H chart BUY 41.50 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 40.30 43.00 43.50