z Page 1 of 12 MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK Bursa saham global menguat di hari Senin, sementara dolar tertekan terhadap sejumlah rivalnya, setelah Kepala Federal Reserve Janet Yellen mengatakan suku bunga nampaknya masih dalam perjalanan, namun tidak menyebutkan secara spesifik kapan kenaikan itu akan dilakukan. Wall Street menguat dengan indeks S&P 500 tembus level tertinggi 7 bulan, berkat komentar Yellen dan juga kenaikan pada saham minyak dan energi, sementara harga obligasi AS turun. Kalangan ekonom saat ini memprediksi The Fed akan menunggu hingga sidang bulan Juli sebelum menaikkan suku bunga, yang berarti bahwa keputusan kebijakan moneter akan dibuat pasca referendum Inggris pada 23 Juni yang akan menentukan apakah keluar dari Uni Eropa ataukah tidak. Pekan ini investor akan mencermati data revisi pertumbuhan ekonomi Jepang (Rabu) yang diprediksi akan tumbuh lebih pesat dari perkiraan di kuartal pertama menyusul belanja modal turun lebih sedikit dari perkiraan, meskipun nampaknya data revisi ini belum akan mengubah kesan ekonomi yang terlihat lesu. PDB-Q1 tahunan Jepang ditaksir tumbuh 1,9% setelah data awal menunjukkan pertumbuhan 1,7% dan untuk data PDB-QQ diprediksi naik 0,5%, dari laporan awal 0,4%. Disamping data Jepang, investor juga akan disuguhi sidang bank sentral Selandia Baru (RBNZ) pada hari Kamis yang diprediksi unchanged di 2,25%. Selasa 07 Juni 2015 WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV 06.01 GB BRC Retail Sales YY May N/A % -0.9 06.50 JP Foreign Reserves May N/A B 1262.5 11.30 AU RBA Cash Rate Jun 1.75 % 1.75 11.30 AU RBA Rate Statement 12.00 JP Coincident Indicator MM Apr N/A IND 0.5 13.00 DE Industrial Output MM Apr 0.7 % -1.3 14.00 GB Halifax House Prices MM May 0.3 % -0.8 15.30 HK FX Reserves May N/A B 360.80 16.00 EZ GDP Revised QQ Q1 0.5 % 0.5 19.30 US Labor Costs Revised Q1 4.0 % 4.1 21.00 CA Ivey PMI May N/A IND 50.6 02.00 US Consumer Credit Apr 18.00 B 29.67 Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777
Page 2 of 12 EUR/ Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily EUR= 01/02/2016-14/06/2016 (GMT) 1.1375 Cndl; EUR=; Bid 07/06/2016; 1,1353; 1,1358; 1,1347; 1,1353 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 07/06/2016; 1,1258 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 07/06/2016; 1,1291 1.1464 1.1614 Price 1,15 1,14 1,13 1,12 1.0810 1.0820 1.1142 1.1096 @her1en 1,11 1,1 1,09 1,08 1,07 Rangkaian kenaikan level high harian RSI flat dekati area jenuh beli (Research @her1en) Value 50 RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 07/06/2016; 65,960 Value Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 07/06/2016; 0,0138 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 June 06 1.1345 1.1392 1.1327 65 1.1360 10 1.1350 June 03 1.1150 1.1351 1.1137 214 1.1350 200 1.1150 June 02 1.1190 1.1219 1.1144 75 1.1150 35 1.1185 June 01 1.1130 1.1194 1.1114 80 1.1185 55 1.1130 May 31 1.1145 1.1173 1.1122 51 1.1130 5 1.1135 1.1392 1.1327 1.1392 1.1114 1.1614 1.1099 1.1614 1.0711 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (01/Jun) (03/May) (30/May) (03/May) (05/Jan) 1.1528 High May 04 1.1476 High May 06 1.1432 High May 12 1.1392 High June 06 1.1285 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.1111 Low June 01 1.1085 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1.1055 Reaction low on daily chart BUY 1.1325 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1.1260 1.1395 1.1425
Page 3 of 12 /JPY Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP) RSI mulai keluar dari zona oversold Rebound potensial tes area pivot line di sekitar 108.20 (Research @ErwinRiset) June 06 106.60 107.65 106.39 126 107.55 90 106.65 June 03 108.85 109.13 106.57 256 106.65 225 108.90 June 02 109.45 109.58 108.53 105 108.90 60 109.50 June 01 110.65 110.81 109.06 175 109.50 120 110.70 May 31 110.95 111.34 110.51 83 110.70 40 111.10 107.65 106.39 110.81 106.39 111.43 105.55 121.68 105.55 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (01/Jun) (06/Jun) (30/May) (03/May) (29/Jan) (03/May) 110.81 High 01/Jun/2016 109.58 High 02/Jun/2016 109.13 High 03/Jun/2016 108.21 Pivot line (1-D chart) 106.40 Trendline support 106.23 Reaction low (1-H chart) 105.52 Low 03/May/2016 (Bottom) 105.18 Low 15/Oct/2014 (Bottom) BUY 106.85 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 106.00 107.80 108.15
Page 4 of 12 GBP/ Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Short-term support di 1.4330 Trendline support di sekitar 1.4280 Target downtick di 1.4300 1.4250 (Research @ErwinRiset) June 06 1.4375 1.4520 1.4355 165 1.4455 60 1.4515 June 03 1.4405 1.4581 1.4399 182 1.4515 95 1.4420 June 02 1.4420 1.4472 1.4405 67 1.4420 5 1.4415 June 01 1.4485 1.4506 1.4387 119 1.4415 70 1.4485 May 31 1.4630 1.4723 1.4464 259 1.4485 145 1.4630 1.4520 1.4355 1.4581 1.4355 1.4769 1.4333 1.4813 1.3837 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (03/Jun) (06/Jun) (03/May) (16/May) (04/Jan) (29/Feb) 1.4914 High 29/Dec/2015 1.4813 High 04/Jan/2016 (Reaction high) 1.4769 High 03/May/2016 (Peak) 1.4581 High 03/Jun/2016 1.4330 Low 16/May/2016 (Bottom) 1.4298 Low 21/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) 1.4129 Low 18/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) 1.4088 Low 14/Apr/2016 (Reaction low) BUY ---- SELL 1.4490 STOP LOSS 1.4590 1.4340 1.4310
Page 5 of 12 /CHF Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH) Koreksi dekati area support di 0.9659 Target downtick di 0.9650 0.9600. Waspadai RSI sudah oversold (28) (Research @ErwinRiset) June 06 0.9770 0.9775 0.9685 90 0.9705 60 0.9765 June 03 0.9905 0.9920 0.9754 166 0.9765 140 0.9905 June 02 0.9880 0.9910 0.9857 53 0.9905 20 0.9885 June 01 0.9935 0.9951 0.9860 91 0.9885 50 0.9935 May 31 0.9920 0.9949 0.9886 63 0.9935 UNCH 0.9935 0.9775 0.9685 0.9951 0.9685 0.9955 0.9444 1.0257 0.9444 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (01/Jun) (06/Jun) (30/May) (03/May) (29/Jan) (03/May) 1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016 (Peak) 1.0000 The level of psychology 0.9955 High 30/May/2016 (Reaction high) 0.9775 High 06/Jun/2016 0.9659 Low 12/May/2016 (Reaction low) 0.9561 Low 05/May/2016 0.9530 Low 04/May/2016 0.9490 Pivot line BUY ---- SELL 0.9745 STOP LOSS 0.9815 0.9660 0.9590
Page 6 of 12 AUD/ Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily AUD= 03/02/2016-14/06/2016 (GMT) EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 07/06/2016; 0,7306 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 07/06/2016; 0,7394 Cndl; AUD=; Bid 07/06/2016; 0,7364; 0,7369; 0,7357; 0,7358 0.7680 0.7835 0.7765 Price 0,78 0,77 0,76 0.7400 0,71 @her1en 0.7142 0.7105 0,7 RSI; 0.6971 AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 07/06/2016; 64,756 Value Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 07/06/2016; 0,0130 Value 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 0.7402 0,75 0,74 0,73 0,72 Penguatan harian dekati puncak trend channel harian RSI harian flat dekati area jenuh beli (Research @her1en) June 06 0.7345 0.7391 0.7316 75 0.7365 10 0.7355 June 03 0.7225 0.7365 0.7219 146 0.7355 130 0.7225 June 02 0.7250 0.7268 0.7203 65 0.7225 30 0.7255 June 01 0.7235 0.7299 0.7228 71 0.7255 30 0.7225 May 31 0.7190 0.7266 0.7182 84 0.7225 45 0.7180 0.7391 0.7316 0.7391 0.7203 0.7719 0.7146 0.7828 0.6828 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (02/Jun) (03/May) (24/May) (20/Apr) (15/Jan) 0.7561 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.7517 High May 04 0.7478 High May 06 0.7391 High June 06 0.7308 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.7175 Low May 31 0.7105 Reaction low on daily chart 0.7065 Reaction low on daily chart BUY 0.7335 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.7270 0.7405 0.7435
Page 7 of 12 NZD/ Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US) Daily NZD= 29/01/2016-14/06/2016 (GMT) 0.6910 Cndl; NZD=; Bid 07/06/2016; 0,6920; 0,6924; 0,6912; 0,6916 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 07/06/2016; 0,6817 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 07/06/2016; 0,6827 0.7054 0.6939 Price 0,7 0,695 0,69 0,685 0,68 0.6550 0.6674 @her1en 0,675 0,67 0,665 0,66 0,655 0,65 0,645 0,64 Rangkaian naik level high harian RSI harian flat masuk area jenuh beli (Research @her1en) RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 07/06/2016; 68,835 Value Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 07/06/2016; 0,0178 Value 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 13 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 June 06 0.6940 0.6967 0.6906 61 0.6925 20 0.6945 June 03 0.6815 0.6955 0.6802 153 0.6945 140 0.6805 June 02 0.6820 0.6833 0.6781 52 0.6805 10 0.6815 June 01 0.6785 0.6829 0.6762 67 0.6815 50 0.6765 May 31 0.6705 0.6775 0.6690 85 0.6765 70 0.6695 0.6967 0.6906 0.6967 0.6762 0.7053 0.6677 0.7054 0.6348 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (01/Jun) (03/May) (30/May) (19/Apr) (20/Jan) 0.7198 High June 11, 2015 0.7053 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.6996 Reaction high on 1-H chart 0.6967 High June 06 0.6841 Reaction low on 1-H chart 0.6798 Low June 03 0.6756 Low June 01 0.6685 Low May 31 BUY 0.6900 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 0.6840 0.6970 0.7000
Page 8 of 12 EUR/JPY Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP) Membentuk double bottom di sekitar 120.80 Daily trend bearish Target uptick di 123 (Research @ErwinRiset) June 06 120.90 122.32 120.83 149 122.20 115 121.05 June 03 121.40 121.66 120.85 81 121.05 35 121.40 June 02 122.45 122.61 121.07 154 121.40 110 122.50 June 01 123.20 123.31 121.90 141 122.50 70 123.20 May 31 123.65 124.20 122.99 121 123.20 55 123.75 122.32 120.83 123.31 120.83 124.62 121.50 132.25 120.83 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (01/Jun) (06/Jun) (12/May) (06/May) (29/Jan) (06/Jun) 124.20 High 31/May/2016 123.65 Trendline resistance 123.31 High 01/Jun/2016 122.61 High 02/Jun/2016 120.78 Low 06/Jun/2016 119.08 Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom) 118.86 Low 25/Feb/2013 (Bottom) 117.56 Low 24/Jan/2013 BUY 121.65 SELL ---- STOP LOSS 120.65 122.50 123.35
Page 9 of 12 /CAD Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA) Koreksi berpotensi uji area support di 1.2745 Key support di sekitar 1.2590 (Research @ErwinRiset) WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE 1.2936 1.2810 1.2982 1.2802 1.3143 1.2802 1.3188 1.2458 1.4689 1.2458 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (02/Jun) (06/Jun) (24/May) (03/May) (20/Jan) (03/May) 1.3217 High 05/Apr/2016 (Peak) 1.3188 High 24/May/2016 (Peak) 1.3106 High 03/Jun/2016 1.2982 High 06/Jun/2016 1.2768 Low 12/May/2016 (Reaction low) 1.2693 Low 04/May/2016 1.2590 Pivot line 1.2458 Low 03/May/2016 BUY --- SELL 1.2900 STOP LOSS 1.3000 1.2700 1.2600
Page 10 of 12 GOLD (XAU/) Daily XAU= 11/03/2016-09/06/2016 (GMT) 2.51 1303.60 1288.20 Price Ozs 1.280 1.260 1208.15 Cndl; XAU=; Bid 06/06/2016; 1.242,4000; 1.248,4000; 1.239,5500; 1.244,8600 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20 1199.60 06/06/2016; 1.237,3934 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 06/06/2016; 1.246,4424 @her1en RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/06/2016; 59,932 Value Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 06/06/2016; -34,7400 Value 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 1.240 1.220 1.200 1.180 Penguatan dekati puncak trend channel harian RSI flat jauhi area jenuh jual (Research @her1en) AM FIX (16.30 WIB) PM FIX (21.00 WIB) June 06 1248.00 1248.40 1240.25 8.15 1245.00 3.00 1242.00 1240.55 1244.00 June 03 1208.50 1243.20 1207.40 35.80 1242.00 31.00 1211.00 1211.00 1240.50 June 02 1213.00 1217.60 1210.33 7.27 1211.00 1.50 1212.50 1215.50 1212.40 June 01 1216.50 1220.30 1206.48 13.82 1212.50 3.00 1215.50 1216.25 1214.50 May 31 1210.50 1218.30 1206.43 11.87 1215.50 10.00 1205.50 1210.50 1212.10 1248.40 1240.25 1248.40 1206.48 1303.60 1200.15 1303.60 1062.28 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (01/Jun) (02/May) (30/May) (02/May) (04/Jan) 1259.60 High May 20 1255.61 High May 23 1250.76 Reaction high on 1-H chart 1248.40 High June 06 1239.55 Low June 06 1235.81 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1211.40 Reaction low on 1-H chart 1209.54 Low June 02 BUY 1241.00 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 1233.00 1251.00 1256.50
Page 11 of 12 SILVER (XAG/) Daily XAG= 09/03/2016-09/06/2016 (GMT) Cndl; XAG=; Bid 06/06/2016; 16,3870; 16,5310; 16,3300; 16,4580 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20 06/06/2016; 16,4308 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 06/06/2016; 16,5886 14.75 16.14 18.00 15.80 17.58 16.56 15.77 @her1en RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 06/06/2016; 55,899 Value Ozs Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14 06/06/2016; -0,7730 Value 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 30 06 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Price Ozs 17,5 17 16,5 16 15,5 15 14,5 Penguatan jauhi area bawah trendline hariannya Rangkaian naik level high harian RSI harian flat Help desk close price (16.457) previous (16.391) (Research @her1en) June 06 16.40 16.51 16.33 0.18 16.45 0.07 16.39 June 03 15.98 16.43 15.94 0.49 16.39 0.42 15.96 June 02 15.94 16.03 15.90 0.13 15.96 0.03 15.93 June 01 15.97 16.07 15.80 0.26 15.93 0.04 15.97 May 31 16.00 16.14 15.94 0.21 15.97 0.02 15.95 16.51 16.33 16.51 15.80 17.99 15.88 17.99 13.73 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (01/Jun) (02/May) (30/May) (02/May) (12/Jan) 17.28 Reaction high on 1-H chart 16.91 High May 19 16.65 High May 20 16.56 High May 23 16.26 Reaction low on 1-H chart 15.93 Low June 03 15.77 Low Apr 12 15.34 Reaction low on daily chart BUY 16.35 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 16.10 16.65 16.85
Page 12 of 12 CLN6/ (OIL) (Exp.: 21 Jun. 2016 - Reuters) Daily CLN6 37.50 Cndl; CLN6; Trade Price 06/06/2016; 48,88; 49,90; 48,71; 49,71 WMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 55 06/06/2016; 46,49 EMA; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 20 06/06/2016; 48,14 43.65 46.34 50.21 11/03/2016-09/06/2016 (NYC) @her1en RSI; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential 06/06/2016; 66,210 Value Bbl Mom; CLN6; Trade Price(Last); 14 06/06/2016; 1,29 Value 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 02 09 16 23 31 06 Maret 2016 April 2016 Mei 2016 Juni 2016 Price Bbl 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 Tunjukkan rangkaian penguatan level low harian RSI naik, dekati puncak trend channel (Research @her1en) June 06 48.87 49.87 48.70 1.17 49.70 0.86 48.84 June 03 49.01 49.38 48.32 1.06 48.84 0.19 49.03 June 02 48.89 49.45 47.96 1.49 49.03 0.15 48.88 June 01 48.80 49.23 47.74 1.49 48.88 0.05 48.83 May 31 49.61 50.07 48.80 1.27 48.83 0.76 49.59 49.87 48.70 49.87 47.74 50.19 43.02 50.19 26.04 (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (06/Jun) (01/Jun) (26/May) (10/May) (26/May) (11/Feb) 53.20 High Oct 12, 2015 52.04 Reaction high on daily chart 50.28 High Nov 05, 2015 49.90 High June 06 48.71 Low June 06 47.97 Low June 02 46.84 Low May 16 46.34 Reaction low on daily chart BUY 49.45 SELL ----- STOP LOSS 48.45 50.95 51.45