Systems Thinking & Modelling Oleh: Wilopo

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1 Systems Thinking & Modelling Oleh: Wilopo PROGRAM STUDI ADMINISTRASI BISNIS UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA

2 Fenomena Suatu fenomena menyangkut 2 hal (aspek): (1) Struktur (Structure) (2) Perilaku (Behavior) (Unsur Pembentuk Fenomena Dan Pola Keterkaitan Antar Unsur Tersebut) (Perubahan Suatu Besaran/Variable Dalam Suatu Kurun Waktu Tertentu, Baik Kuantitatof Maupun Kwalitatif) A A A A Pemahaman hubungan struktur dan perilaku sangat diperlukan dalam mengenali suatu fenomena

3 Perilaku (Behavior) Perilaku adalah perubahan suatu besaran atau variable terhadap waktu atau catatatan tentang magnitude (besar, nilai, angka) sesuatu dalam kurun waktu tertentu (pertumbuhan, penurunan, osilisasi, stagnan, atau kombinasinya)

4 Struktur (Structure) 1. Struktur Fisik : stok dan jaringan aliran materi, orang, energi, bahan 2. Struktur Pengabilan keputusan (decision making structure): akumulasi dan jaringan aliran informasi yang digunakan oleh aktoraktor (manusia) dalam proses pembuatan keputusannya

5 THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEMS THINKING AND MODELLING (ST &M) (Mani & Cavana, 2000)

6 1. Problem Structuring 2. Causal Loop Modelling 3. Dynamic Modelling 4. Scenario Planning and Modelling 5. Implementation and Organisational Learning (Learning Lab) Problem Structuring Causal Loop Modelling Dynamic Modelling Scenario Planning and Modelling Implementation and Organisational Learning

7 Problem Structuring 1 1. Iden'fy problems or issues of concern to management 2. Collect preliminary informa'on and data

8 Causal Loop Modelling 2 1. Develop a systems map or rich picture 2. Define variable types and construct stock- flow diagram 3. Collect detailed informa'on and data 4. Develop a simula'on model 5. Simulate steady- state/stability condi'ons 6. Reproduce reference mode behaviour (base case) 7. Validate the model 8. Perform sensi'vity analysis 9. Design and analyse policies 10.Develop and test strategies

9 Dynamic Modelling 3 1. Develop a systems map or rich picture 2. Define variable types and construct stock- flow diagram 3. Collect detailed informaaon and data 4. Develop a simulaaon model 5. Simulate steady- state/stability condiaons 6. Reproduce reference mode behaviour (base case) 7. Validate the model 8. Perform sensiavity analysis 9. Design and analyse policies 10.Develop and test strategies

10 Scenario Planning and Modelling 4 1. Plan general scope of scenarios 2. Iden4fy key drivers of change and keynote uncertain4es 3. Construct forced and learning scenarios 4. Simulate scenarios with the model 5. Evaluate robustness of the policies and strategies

11 Implementation and Organisational Learning 5 1. Prepare a report and presenta4on to management team 2. Communicate results and insights of proposed interven4on to stakeholders 3. Develop a microworld and learning lab based on the simula4on model 4. Use learning lab to examine mental models and facilitate learning in the organisa4on.

12 Systems Thinking Models 1. Archetypes 2. Causal Loop Diagrams 3. Stocks and Flows

13 Bahasa Pemodelan

14 GENERIC FEEDBACK LOOP REINFORCING & BALANCING

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16 Archetypes

17 Archetypes Sistem Archetypes adalah kombinasi umpan balik Reinforcing dan Balancing yang umum terjadi. Mereka terdiri dari dua atau lebih umpan balik.! Setiap Archetypes mempunya karakteristik tema, pengalaman khusus, pola perilaku kinerja antar waktu, struktur, mental model dan intervensi-intervensi yang effektif.

18 Mengapa Archetypes? Membuat berfikir sistem lebih jelas; Juga mudah dipahami karena Archetypes sering terjadi; Menjadi mudah untuk disharingkan; dan Mengalihkan perhatian dari menyelahkan ke pencarian bersama.

19 POLA DASAR ARCHETYPES Bahwa tidak semua problem manajemen bersifat unik. Terdapat pola-pola struktur (patterns of structure) yang terjadi berulang. Pola-pola struktur itu bisa terjadi di semua tingkat dan skala organisasi, dari dinamika internal yang sangat personal sampai hubungan internasional tingkat global. Karena itu telah diidentifikasi ada generic structure atau systems structure.

20 POLA DASAR ARCHETYPES Kata kerja dan kata benda dalam systems thinking: reinforcing, balancing dan delay. Kalimat dasar atau cerita sederhana dalam systems thinking: systems archetypes. Penyederhanaan dari kompleksitas. Suatu systems archetype dapat terjadi pada bidangbidang yang berbeda (biology, ekonomi, politik, psychology, manajemen dll) Bahasa yang dapat menyajikan secara eksplisit fenomena berulang dalam organisasi

21 Structure R (Reinforcing Loop) They compound change in one direction with even more change in that direction! Reinforcing loop can be seen as the engines of growth and collapse

22 Structure R! (Reinforcing Loop) Structure Behavior Over Time S Employee Performance Perf. Level Supportive Behavior Supervisor s Supportive Behavior S Time Unsupportive Behavior + / - / S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another S stands for "same direction O stands for "opposite direction!! or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change

23 Structure B (Balancing Loop) They resist change in one direction by producing change in the opposite direction BALANCING Loop can be seen as the goal seeking or equilibrium

24 Structure B (Balancing Loop) Structure Behavior Over Time Desired Inventory S Discrepancy O Actual Inventory Actual Inventory S S Inventory Adjustment Desired Inventory Time + / - / S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in relation to another S stands for "same direction O stands for "opposite direction!! or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change

25 DELAYS DELAYS : In many systemic structure delays play a hidden but important role

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